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View Full Version : Could this be good-bye?


tworiverswoman
06-23-2009, 09:12 PM
This story (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/5568295/North-Korea-preparing-to-launch-missile-towards-Hawaii.html) has me a little bit concerned. Not a lot, but at least a little. According to one of the stories, the missile in question has a 4,000 mile range and Hawaii is 4,500 miles from the launch site, so the odds are that there won't be a real issue for us.

It's going to make for an unnerving night, though, given the fact that Hawaii expends roughly $1million in fireworks on July 4 and New Year's Eve, about a third of that going for illegal aerials. So it's going to be a little hard to be sure what's going on until all the noise dies down....

Anyway - if y'all never hear from me again after that weekend, I hope you'll think about me from time to time.

Neilbert
06-23-2009, 09:19 PM
Their last missile broke apart over Japan, so don't worry too much.

Hopper
06-24-2009, 06:01 AM
The North Koreans really should reconsider before they launch anything at or towards Hawaii. Japan might have some interesting insights to offer regarding the American response to such actions.

GonzoTheGreat
06-24-2009, 06:15 AM
Japan wasn't smart enough to wait until the USA was bogged down in a couple of other places, though. Of course, I don't think that the NK leadership is all that smart either, but they may think that they are.

Or they may even sincerely believe in the inevitable victory of the working classes over the capitalist swine. That's the trouble with true believers: they will act on those beliefs, whether or not they are based in reality.

DahLliA
06-24-2009, 12:13 PM
aside from Gonzo's good point I pretty sure this is just feather ruffling:)

Zanguini
06-24-2009, 03:37 PM
yeah but kim jong il is batsh!t insane

Ozymandias
06-24-2009, 05:57 PM
Japan wasn't smart enough to wait until the USA was bogged down in a couple of other places, though. Of course, I don't think that the NK leadership is all that smart either, but they may think that they are.


I assume your just not counting what ended up being massive engagements in North Africa and Europe to dwarf the current scope of military operations?

Davian93
06-24-2009, 06:43 PM
Our Missile Shield is technically up and running. I doubt we'd have too much issues taking out one of their missiles if they launched it.

Uno
06-24-2009, 07:03 PM
But those that are paying attention will have noticed that North Korea is saying that it will shoot a missile towards Hawaii, not at the islands. They obviously intend to demonstrate the range of their missiles, not actually to hit anything, except the ocean. Basically, they're threatening to do what they did when they launced several missiles at the Sea of Japan in 2006.

As is usually the case, I'd say that this has something to do with the internal politics of the country, probably with the reported naming of Kim Jong-un as "Brilliant Comrade" and (apparently) successor to his father. I wouldn't be too terribly surprised if North Korean media subsequently reports that Kim Jong-un has played a leading role in missile development, or something like that.

Davian93
06-24-2009, 07:08 PM
We should shoot it down just to mess with them...and then retaliate by wiping out Pyongyang with a couple of these...

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/systems/images/w87-design.jpg

Uno
06-24-2009, 07:13 PM
We should shoot it down just to mess with them...and then retaliate by wiping out Pyongyang with a couple of these...

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/systems/images/w87-design.jpg

Well, silly comments about nuclear strikes aside, shooting their missile down would, of course, be a rather big blow to the North Korean propaganda effort. Instead of showing their capabilities, the test would then highlight their relative powerlessness against US countermeasures. But you'd then have to be pretty sure that you'd actually hit their missile. Otherwise, they'd look even stronger.

Davian93
06-24-2009, 07:15 PM
I agree completley. Considering we're only batting around .500 in controlled testing situations (albeit the test scenarios are against more of ICBM type missiles at higher velocities and higher altitudes) it would be a risk. Still, if NCA wanted to make a statement, it would make a big one.

Uno
06-24-2009, 07:26 PM
I agree completley. Considering we're only batting around .500 in controlled testing situations (albeit the test scenarios are against more of ICBM type missiles at higher velocities and higher altitudes) it would be a risk. Still, if NCA wanted to make a statement, it would make a big one.

On the other hand, one failed test seems like a pretty big deal to North Korea, since they actually have to work for years just to get a single big launch, the equivalent of a routine day of testing to the US military. Not sure how they'd react to their missile actually being shot down, though. Would they try to hush it down domestically or would they make a big deal out of this heinous blow to the legitimate security aspirations of the glorious People's Republic?

Davian93
06-24-2009, 07:30 PM
On the other hand, one failed test seems like a pretty big deal to North Korea, since they actually have to work for years just to get a single big launch, the equivalent of a routine day of testing to the US military. Not sure how they'd react to their missile actually being shot down, though. Would they try to hush it down domestically or would they make a big deal out of this heinous blow to the legitimate security aspirations of the glorious People's Republic?

If they even shot it in the direction of Hawaii, I'd say we are completely within our rights of shooting it down. On that same vein, if they shot it over Japan, we'd have just as much right to shoot it down. I believe Japan is part of our ABM shield anyway. What are they gonna do? Actually invade S. Korea? I say shoot the motherfcker down!

Davian93
06-24-2009, 07:35 PM
By the numbers, we've hit 8 of 14 intercept tests (57%) and our next test is scheduled for this Summer anyway...why not take advantage of a real-life scenario. Just shoot 2 or 3 intercept vehicles at it to ensure a kill.

Uno
06-24-2009, 07:39 PM
If they even shot it in the direction of Hawaii, I'd say we are completely within our rights of shooting it down. On that same vein, if they shot it over Japan, we'd have just as much right to shoot it down. I believe Japan is part of our ABM shield anyway. What are they gonna do? Actually invade S. Korea? I say shoot the motherfcker down!

But North Korea doesn't see the world quite that way. North Korea feels it has the right to do whatever it deems necessary to protect itself against the evil foreign powers conspiring against it. The country isn't really doing much that great powers haven't been doing for a long time.

At least they sound like they think everyone's out to get them, anyway. What they actually think is a bit harder to say, since they're damn good at keeping the rest of the world in the dark about what's actually going on inside of the government. With other secretive regimes, analysts tend to have at least some clue, but with North Korea, it's almost always pure speculation. My theory is that Kim is deliberately trying to foster this image of utter unpredictability to keep the rest of the world confused about the regime, and thus incapable of doing anything effective against it. Kim knows the old dictum "know your enemy," and he's resolved to be unknowable.

Zanguini
06-24-2009, 10:59 PM
There was a peice on it from the daily show if i can remember i will post it here when it is put online... basically the main reason why he is doing it is because the world is focused on iran right now and not paying enough attention to him so... ludicrous threat

GonzoTheGreat
06-25-2009, 05:41 AM
I assume your just not counting what ended up being massive engagements in North Africa and Europe to dwarf the current scope of military operations?Well, based on the fact that those engagements didn't get started at all until after Japan made its move, no, I wasn't counting them.
Actually, I'm not even sure they would have gotten started at all if Germany hadn't declared war on the USA, a few days after the attack on Hawai. So counting on them would not have been a sensible bet for Japan.

Zanguini
06-25-2009, 08:17 AM
Kim Jong Il from the daily show (http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=231560&title=welcome-to-the-jong-il)

tworiverswoman
06-25-2009, 02:34 PM
Yes, shooting TOWARDS Hawaii, not AT. However, I'd like a closer definition of what they mean by "Hawaii," anyway. The STATE of Hawaii is roughly 4500 miles from the launch site, but the island chain is actually 1500 miles long, and ends near Midway Atoll, which is actually within that 4000 mile range. While Midway isn't part of the state, it IS U.S. property.

And yeah, "batshit insane" seems to be a decent description, from all the things I've heard. Didn't he once have announced that he made 18 holes-in-one in his first-ever golf game?

Sarevok
06-25-2009, 02:43 PM
Yes, shooting TOWARDS Hawaii, not AT.
The problem with that is you only know which it is when it hits something... (either ground or water)

tworiverswoman
06-25-2009, 02:47 PM
Hitting the water is actually potentially worse, if it were to be armed with a functioning nuclear warhead.

No, I'm not REALLY worried about this -- but... Anytime you have someone in charge who has such a loose grip on reality, you have to worry at least a LITTLE bit.

Sinistrum
06-25-2009, 04:27 PM
Yeah but think of the totally tubular waves that would cause Tru. You just need to get your kawabunga spirit going.

Davian93
06-25-2009, 05:15 PM
Yeah but think of the totally tubular waves that would cause Tru. You just need to get your kawabunga spirit going.

Using kawabunga in context...ashame negative rep isn't possible. ;)

Sinistrum
06-25-2009, 05:28 PM
How dare you diss the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle's battlecry of choice! I negative rep your negative rep! :p