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yks 6nnetu hing
06-26-2009, 05:13 AM
Last year on August 8th, the day the Olympic Games started in China, Russia invaded Georgia. The war was short but the effects have not subsided. Russia has effectively annexed two regions of what are according to international law a part of Georgia and has NOT moved its troops out of "Georgia proper" as was agreed in the negotiated truce.

A week ago Russia vetoed the continuation of UN observing mission in Georgia. The international observers have to be out of the country by the end of June. At the same time Russia is accusing Georgia of escalating hostilities... Logically thinking people wonder why then is Russia sending the independent observers out.

Russia is starting military excercises "Kavkaz 2009" (= "Caucasia 2009") on June 29th on the borders of Georgia as well as actually IN Abkhasia and Ossetia.

Obama is scheduled to meet with Medvedev on July 6. http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=35174&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=397a4757e5

The internet is buzzing. General consensus seems to be that there will be a new war and it will start some time between July 10 and July 31. The Chechen rebels apparently have battle plans ready for this already. Chechnya is, as you might remember, a mainly Islamic region of Russia that has been trying to break off for more than a decade.

But the real question is: what will the world do this time? Will we just leave Georgia to hang because it's not in NATO, because the economy is doing so badly and because of the ongoing developments in Afghanistan, North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Israel? Even though none of those countries aren't actually attacking another country. (With the exception of Israel, perhaps) Even though Russia is plummeting into the economical abyss faster than any other country in the world and they can't possibly sustain a long war?

What do you think?

Sei'taer
06-26-2009, 07:38 AM
That doesn't sound good. "Strong Condemnations" will be coming soon.

GonzoTheGreat
06-26-2009, 08:02 AM
That doesn't sound good. "Strong Condemnations" will be coming soon.Calls for a cease fire are going to be considered.

Ishara
06-26-2009, 08:26 AM
Even though Russia is plummeting into the economical abyss faster than any other country in the world and they can't possibly sustain a long war?
Now I'm confused. If that's the case (and I have no doubt that it is, you being the resident expert! ;)), how on earth can they be considering another war?

Is it something that could end up saving them from the downtourn? I mean, I know that war often has a stimulating effect on the economy, but would they start a(nother) war for that purpose? Or is this part of their own Manifest Destiny agenda, and economy be damned, they're just going after the prize?

yks 6nnetu hing
06-26-2009, 08:59 AM
The only natural gas pipeline from Asia (Minor) to Europe not under Russian control goes through Georgia. So yes, it's very much about money. The line isn't big and I don't believe it would ever jeopardize Russia's power position on the market but it does give an alternative. If Russia doesn't have absolute monopoly then it can't charge whatever it wants and to hell with the market.

Which is also why it SHOULD be in EU's best interests to avoid the war altogether or if it does happen to stick to Georgia's side. Otherwise, come next winter...

edit: typos

Sei'taer
06-26-2009, 09:08 AM
Calls for a cease fire are going to be considered.

Possible controversial statements might be forthcoming at some unknown juncture in the immediate, or not so immediate, future or later date.

Crispin's Crispian
06-26-2009, 10:57 AM
We've been talking about how Russia and China have to be our allies against NK to avoid an escalation. That brings up two questions.

1) How much weight will Russia have in the NK discussion if it starts a sustained war? They'll either be too occupied or in a terrible negotiation position.

2) What will this do to China to have aggressive neighbors on both sides?

I'm not sure either of these are that salient, but it does add more mud to the water.

yks 6nnetu hing
06-26-2009, 11:08 AM
the thing to understand about Russia, and I've said this before repeatedly, is: Russia doesn't give sh!t about contracts, agreements, allies. Russia does what Russia wants at any given moment and that's that.

So even if US/whoever would negotiate an agreement with Russia that Russia would offer support with NK and China, there's absolutely no guarantees that they actually would. Even if it has a gazillion signatures from all parties.

The question you need to ask is: What does Russia want? Is it really beneficial to damp down the NK nuke program if Russia would rather like to have some leverage in the Caucasus? I don't think so...

Davian93
06-27-2009, 10:23 AM
Russia is the US without moral entanglements. Russia is basically what Dubya wanted to become...able to act unilaterally and have everyone go "well, they ARE Russia..."

They'll probably do something. Russia should dig up one of the surviving Romanovs (there are a few still out there), set up a constitutional monarchy and proceed to take back everything from their 1914 boundaries. They'd have a nice legal shield as all those countries once swore allegiance to the Czar anyway...and they could have some fun "royal scandals", diamond jubilees, invasions, etc etc.

Ishara
06-27-2009, 09:56 PM
What, did Anastasia have kids? (All jokes aside, I quite like the movie...)

So it's resource driven. I get that actually. The oil may not be enough to economically harm Russia, but having makes it even harder to oppose them, militarily or economically.

You know, I still wonder why it kind of fell off the radar in the first place. I remember last year it was big news, and then, it wasn't.

Davian93
06-27-2009, 10:24 PM
What, did Anastasia have kids? (All jokes aside, I quite like the movie...)

So it's resource driven. I get that actually. The oil may not be enough to economically harm Russia, but having makes it even harder to oppose them, militarily or economically.

You know, I still wonder why it kind of fell off the radar in the first place. I remember last year it was big news, and then, it wasn't.

Nicky II had a couple siblings that survived and that have children as well as a couple uncles IIRC. There are I believe 2 competing Pretenders to the throne of Czar of all the Russias. Its been a while but I think that fairly accurate.

~goes to wikipedia~

Ironically, there is an entire article on wikipedia devoted to this subject...go figure.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_succession_to_the_Russian_Throne

Uno
06-27-2009, 10:34 PM
Nicky II had a couple siblings that survived and that have children as well as a couple uncles IIRC. There are I believe 2 competing Pretenders to the throne of Czar of all the Russias. Its been a while but I think that fairly accurate.

~goes to wikipedia~

Ironically, there is an entire article on wikipedia devoted to this subject...go figure.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_succession_to_the_Russian_Throne

Grand Duchess Maria is generally recognized as head of the house of Romanov, and while a restoration of the Russian monarchy seems unlikely unless there is some kind of radical upheaval in Russian society, you might expect such an event to be beneficial to Georgia. Maria's mother was a Bagration, after all.

Davian93
06-27-2009, 11:31 PM
Grand Duchess Maria is generally recognized as head of the house of Romanov, and while a restoration of the Russian monarchy seems unlikely unless there is some kind of radical upheaval in Russian society, you might expect such an event to be beneficial to Georgia. Maria's mother was a Bagration, after all.

This is true. I vaguely remembered there being some competition as there usually is with most Pretender situations (the Bourbons are a prime example of this as don't they keep two competing lines ready to take over the French throne when the French come to their senses and realize their 38th Republic isn't working?)