The Elaida\Egwene Dinner: No big deal

[Yuri33]

In KoD, Egwene is summoned to be an attendent to Elaida at her dinner with Meidani. We know Egwene has been up to a whole lot, with her "taking the fight to Elaida" crusade going on, and we know Elaida is entirely convinced she's going to triumph over Egwene:

KoD, Attending Elaida
“Egwene spends near enough half of every day in Silviana’s study. Mother.” She was careful to keep her tone neutral. This was the first time Elaida had asked after the young woman since her capture, nine days ago.
“So much? I want her tamed to the Tower’s harness, not broken.”
“I… doubt she will be broken. Mother. Silviana will be careful of that.” And then there was the girl herself. That was not for Elaida’s ears, though. Tarna had been shouted at more than enough. She had learned to avoid subjects that only resulted in shouting. Advice and suggestions unoffered were no more useless than advice and suggestions untaken, and Elaida almost never took either. “Egwene’s stubborn, but I expect she must come around soon.” The girl had to. Galina, beating Tama’s block out of her, had not expended a tenth of the effort Silviana was putting into Egwene. The girl had to yield to that soon.
“Excellent.” Elaida murmured. “Excellent.” She looked over her shoulder, her face a mask of serenity. Her eyes still glittered, though. “Put her name on the roster to attend me. In fact, have her attend me tonight. She can serve supper for Meidani and me.”
“It will be as you command. Mother.” It seemed yet another visit to the Mistress of Novices was inevitable, but no doubt Egwene would earn just as many of those if she never came near Elaida.

This dinner represents the first time Elaida and Egwene will be face to face, and it's the last thing we hear about Egwene in the entire novel. It's a rather unusual place to leave this plot thread, so many believe that something big is going to happen during this meeting.

There are a few candidates for this scene:

1. The Hall shows up, deposes Elaida, and\or raises Egwene. This is insinuated in the popular Great Purge (http://www.theoryland.com/theories.php?func=5&rec=127&theo=2570) theory, though not quite stated (in a comment on the theory, the author claims a revision of the final paragraph which does indeed include speculation that the deposition\raising could happen at the dinner).

2. The foreshadowed Seanchan attack on the White Tower.

3. (And generically,) Some other major plot twist.

From an aesthetic standpoint one of these things happening would make a lot of sense. RJ specifically ended the thread at what seems like such a strange point. There's a lack of closure, and most see it as a sort of cliffhanger, to be addressed quite early on in aMoL.

I'm going to advance an alternative possibility: A whole lot of nothing happens at the Elaida\Egwene dinner. No doubt Egwene will get into trouble and be beaten (as Tarna speculates), and no doubt Elaida gets mad, but other than that, nothing much.

Why? Timing. It's all about timing. A brief note: most of this theory is highly dependent upon the WoT Chronology (http://www.users.bigpond.com/steven_cooper/wotchron.htm). From my observations, the author of that remarkable piece of work was very careful in distinguishing between what he was sure about (and could support) and what he was not so sure about. If you have any problems with the timing I present here, you're going to have to take it up with that site.

So let's start with the date of the dinner--according to the Chronology, Egwene is to attend Elaida on the evening of the 746th day of the WoT story (Aine-23, 1000 NE--I'm going to stick with day from the start of the story though from now on).

Knowing the date of the dinner, what can we conclude about a possible WT coup as explained in choice #1? First, this theoretical coup has to happen after the BA hunters lose their last reason to support Elaida:

KoD, Prologue:
The White Sitter’s composure faded into worry, tightening her mouth and creasing the corners of her eyes. Her hands tightened into fists gripping her shawl. “For us, it is. I’ve just come from answering a summons to Elaida. She wanted to know how I was getting on.” Seaine took a deep breath. “With discovering proof that Alviarin entered a treasonous correspondence with the Dragon Reborn. Really, she was so circumspect in the beginning, so indirect, it’s no wonder I misunderstood what she wanted.”
“I think that fox is walking on my grave,” Yukiri murmured.
Pevara nodded. The notion of approaching Elaida had vanished like summer dew. Their one assurance that Elaida was not herself Black Ajah had been that she instigated the hunt for them, but since she had done no such thing… At least the Black Ajah remained in ignorance of them. At least they had that, still. But for how much longer?
“On mine, too,” she said softly.

The Chronology doesn't specifically list the date this conversation took place, but it does list the conversation that immediately preceded it:

KoD, Prologue:
“Elaida will not know until it is too late, Javindhra. I hide her secrets-the disaster against the Black Tower, Dumai’s Wells-as best I can because she was raised from the Red, but she is the Amyrlin Seat, of all Ajahs and none. That means she is no longer Red, and this is Ajah business, not hers.” A dangerous tone entered her voice. And she had not cursed once. That meant she was on the edge of open fury. “Do you disagree with me on this? Do you intend to inform Elaida despite my express wishes?”
“No, Highest,” Javindhra replied quickly, then buried her face in her cup. Strangely, she seemed to be hiding a smile.
Pevara contented herself with shaking her head. If it had to be done, and she was certain it must, then clearly Elaida had to be kept in the dark. What did Javindhra have to smile about? Too many suspicions.
“I’m very glad that you both agree with me,” Tsutama said dryly, leaning back in her chair. “Now, leave me.”
They paused only to set down their cups and curtsy. In the Red, when the Highest spoke, everyone obeyed, including Sitters. The sole exception, by Ajah law, was voting in the Hall, though some women who held the title had managed to ensure that any vote near to their hearts went as they wished. Pevara was certain Tsutama intended to be one such. The struggle was going to be distinctly unpleasant. She only hoped she could give as good as she got.
In the corridor outside, Javindhra muttered something about correspondence and rushed off down the white floor tiles marked with the red Flame of Tar Valon before Pevara could say a word. Not that she had intended to say anything, but surely as peaches were poison, the woman was going to drag her heels in this and leave the whole matter in her lap. Light, but this was the last thing she needed, at the worst possible time.

It's at this point that Pevara meets up with Yukiri and eventually Seaine. This is day 728, or approximately 2 weeks prior to the dinner.

Now we look for the next mention of any of the BA hunters. It is once again Pevara, at the end of KoD, entering the BT to propose the bonding of AM to Taim. It is here that I make a specific claim: this trip to the BT would never have happened if any of the possibilities above--the WT coup or a Seanchan attack or something else major--had already occurred. In fact, if anything really huge happened, there's little reason to think the BT trip would take place. I don't think anyone would object to that, since no mention of anything major back at the WT was made by the Red sisters Traveling to the BT.

However, we have a problem--the Chronology is clear in that no specific date is given for this meeting. Fortunately, we don't need to find a specific date. If we can prove the trip occurred after the dinner, then that's all the evidence we need to know that nothing big really happened at the dinner. The proof is actually quite easy. Just prior to Tarna being told to put Egwnene on the list of dinner attendants, Tarna has a little time for reflection as she walks up the WT to attend Elaida herself:

KoD, Attending Elaida:
Besides, not having to watch over her shoulder allowed her to think on Pevara’s troubling question, one she had not considered before suggesting the bonding of Asha’man. Who in the Red actually could be trusted with the task? Hunting men who could channel led Red sisters to look askance at all men, and a fair number hated them. A surviving brother or father might well escape hatred, a favorite cousin or uncle, but once they were all gone, so was affection. And trust. And there was another matter of trust. Bonding any man violated custom strong as law. Even with Tsutama’s blessings, who might run to Elaida when bonding Asha’man was broached? She had removed three more names from her mental list of possibilities by the time she reached the entrance to Elaida’s apartments, only two floors below the top of the Tower. After almost two weeks, her list of those she could be certain of still contained only a single name, and that one was impossible for the task.

This is the very day of the dinner, and even after 2 weeks, Tarna has yet to think of more than one candidate for their trip. This proves that the Red sisters didn't leave before the day of the dinner (the final roster of Red sisters isn't complete).

There is a slight possibility, and I do mean slight, that the Tarna and the Red sisters left the WT between Tarna's attending of Elaida (it happened in the morning) and Egwene attending Elaida (which is to happen at night). But for completeness, we'll try and plug up this hole as well.

The final tally for the expedition to the BT was 6:

KoD, Epilogue:
Javindhra was there only at Tsutama’s command, given when Pevara and Tarna could not come up with enough names to suit the Highest. The angular Sitter did not bother to hide her displeasure over that, not from Pevara. although she had buried it deeply around Tsutama. Tarna was there, of course, pale-haired and icy cold, her Keeper’s stole left behind but her divided gray skirts embroidered in red to the knee. For Elaida’s Keeper to have a Warder would be difficult, though the men were to be housed in the city, away from the Tower, yet it had all been her idea in the first place, and she was. if not eager, then determined to take part in this first experiment. Besides, the need for numbers was paramount, because they had found only three other sisters willing to entertain the idea. The primary task of the Red for so long, finding men who could channel and bringing them to the Tower to be gentled, tended to sour women on all men, so the clues had been few and far between. Jezrail was a square-faced Tairen who kept a painted miniature of the boy she had almost married instead of coming to the Tower. His grandchildren would be grandparents now, but she still spoke of him fondly. Desala, a beautiful Cairhienin with large dark eyes and an unfortunate temper, when given the chance would dance any number of men to exhaustion in a night. And Melare, plump and witty, with a love of conversation, sent money to Andor to pay for her grandnephews’ education as she had for her nephews and nieces.
Weary of searching out such tiny clues, weary of probing delicately to learn whether they meant what they might. Pevara had convinced Tsutama that six would be enough to begin. Too, a larger party might cause some unfortunate reaction. After all, the whole Red Ajah appearing at this so-called Black Tower, or even half, might well make the men think themselves under attack. There was no telling how sane they all still were. That was one thing they had agreed on, behind Tsutama’s back. They would bond no men who showed any signs of madness. That was, if they were allowed to bond any.

The last member was Javindhra, who was forced by Tsutama. Then there's Tarna and Pevara themselves. That still leaves 3 sisters who had to be found and told of the mission between the morning and evening of a single day. Given that it took Tarna 2 weeks to come up with just one name by the morning of the dinner, I find it highly unlikely the that the expedition to the BT was ready to go by supper time.

From this, we can conclude that the Red sisters, including the Keeper herself, left for the BT some time after Egwene attended Elaida. And as mentioned above, it's highly unlikely they would have left for the BT if anything major had happened at the dinner. Additionally, it's unlikely that they could have left without knowing if something big happened at the dinner, since the Keeper herself was part of the expedition, and I'm pretty sure the Keeper would know. In all likelihood, Egwene infuriated Elaida in some way and was sent to Silvania for discipline. No big deal, and certainly not worthy of mention by Tarna in the epilogue.

[Brita]

Very interesting. I re-read the end of the prologue and it definitely seems as though the reds aren't concerned with any major upheavals back at the Whiter Tower...

As much as I am looking forward to the big showdown between Elaida and Egwene, now I hope you are right and it isn't an oversight on RJs part...

I suppose, in this new light, it could be another small victory for Egwene in that she will show herself to be more controlled, dignified, wise and unbreakable that Elaida in a direct comparison at their meeting. Thus sowing more seeds of dissent among the AS present- leading up to the big showdown.

[NargsBrood]

very interesting indeed. but doesnt the prospect of nothing happening seem kind of disappointing too given all the hype that has surrounded the showdown?

[Neilbert]

Egwene will do something which causes Elaida to lose her temper.
Elaida will look bad as a result.

[Terez]

There are a few candidates for this scene:

1. The Hall shows up, deposes Elaida, and\or raises Egwene. This is insinuated in the popular Great Purge (http://www.theoryland.com/vbulletin/../theories.php?func=5&rec=127&theo=2570) theory, though not quite stated (in a comment on the theory, the author claims a revision of the final paragraph which does indeed include speculation that the deposition\raising could happen at the dinner). Before I argue against your reasoning, let me just point out that this speculation was pretty obviously idle - by the time I had cleared up the glitch that happened when Tam posted the theory, I had already pointed out several times that there isn't much evidence to go on for predicting how the Purge will go down, how Egwene's victory will play into it, how the Seanchan attack will play into it, etc. The idle speculation served the purpose of saying, "I would not be surprised if the Hall deposes Elaida and raises Egwene today.":

Add these obvious shifts in the minds of the Sitters to the other shifts that we know about, such as the fact that Beonin was reined in, and Egwene’s success with Silviana and Mattin Stepaneos, and it is more than clear that the negotiations will go in Egwene’s favor quite soon. In fact, I will not be surprised if the Hall shows up to depose Elaida and raise Egwene while Egwene is attending Elaida’s dinner with Meidani. Once Egwene is Amyrlin, she will swear the Three Oaths, and it will be a matter of extreme simplicity at that point for the Hunters to approach her with their current findings, and for Egwene to supply what she knows of Elaida’s initial inquiry - the treasonous correspondence. It was idle speculation, so therefore not a great deal of thought went into it beyond what I said above - that Elaida's deposition will not surprise me for being too soon.

That being said, I don't think it's as clear as you make out that the Reds left the Tower after the dinner:


The final tally for the expedition to the BT was 6:

The last member was Javindhra, who was forced by Tsutama. Then there's Tarna and Pevara themselves. That still leaves 3 sisters who had to be found and told of the mission between the morning and evening of a single day. Given that it took Tarna 2 weeks to come up with just one name by the morning of the dinner, I find it highly unlikely the that the expedition to the BT was ready to go by supper time. Why? Scenario: Tarna has only come up with one name, a name which she thinks is impossible for the task. She is fretting over it, in that cold Tarna way, because she is to meet with Tsutama after she leaves Elaida, and she knows Tsutama will not be happy. So she and Pevara meet with Tsutama and Tsutama demands to know who they have come up with, and Tarna reluctantly gives her one name and voices her reluctance with whatever details. Pevara has two names, and Tsutama is not happy. She threatens to order a dozen or two Reds to accompany them, and Pevara haggles her down to ordering only Javindhra and Tarna's one impossible choice, saying that six is enough to begin. Bargain sealed, and the four are summoned to Tsutama, and advised to get on with it, today. Because of the rush, there isn't much time for discussion, and little consensus is reached about what sort of men they will bond.

What's so hard to believe about that? I don't have any strong feelings on what will happen at the dinner, any more than I have strong feelings on exactly how the Purge will go down, but I don't know why you think it's proven that the Reds left afterward.

In all likelihood, Egwene infuriated Elaida in some way and was sent to Silvania for discipline. No big deal, and certainly not worthy of mention by Tarna in the epilogue. It's certainly possible that things will go down this way - Tarna seemed to think they would - but it would seem a bit unusual to me, considering how RJ played on Elaida's willful ignorance of what Egwene has been up to. I rather think it will be dramatic, or it will be anticlimactic (since it was set up as a cliffhanger).

[irerancincpkc]

I agree that no huge, outside event will occur, but I think the battle of words between Elaida and Egwene will be big enough. Maybe they could both finish each other off...

[Mort]

I was thinking along the lines of Terez. Maybe Pevara had been better at finding names that were suitable than Tana.

[Zaela Sedai]

Does anyone see the possibility of this dinner being the beginning of the Seanchan attacks? The only reason I say so is because of how hig up Elaida's rooms are in the tower. Its just a thought I cant follow the exact timing and where every one is as well as you guys ;)

Therre is only one last book, only so much can happen, and a lot needs too.

[a dragonburned fool]

I liked your theory very much and it saddened me, when Terez found good counterarguments against your refutation of the possibility that Tarna departed to BT just after her last onscreen meeting with Elaida. Actually it make sense for Tarna to depart as soon as possible after meeting Elaida, so that she would have a londer possible time-window before Elaida would desire to summon Tarna again, so that Tarna wouldn't have the headache to explain why she was absent. This would be aespecially a headache since the last Keeper was formally deposed because her absences. Terez has right that Tsutama's pushing on Tarna and Pevara might make them significantly lower their criteria about which sister would be suitable.

However the window of time between Tarna's last meeting with Elaida and Egwene's attendance is small enough to make this option suspicious. All other Yuri's arguments are brilliant.

It doesn't make insonsistant the possibility though that something very important would happen while Egwene is attending Elaida ... but not on her first atendance. The first attendance might trigger in Elaida a desire to deal with Egwene herself in a series of meetings.

Another interesting possibility is that at the first and only Egwene's attendance Elaida would change her mind about how Egwene is to be treated. Elaida is notoruious about radical changes of her mind after all. If after a while Elaida decides that Egwene is no more to be treated like a novice, but like a traitor to be punished, it might add to Egwene's aureol that of an anticipated martyr, and this in a moment when execution of Egwene would be too late a move for Elaida...

[Brita]

yes- because we know from the predicitions the axe will be falling and Gawyn will have a choice to make...I always assumed this "axe" would be set in motion by Elaida.

I don't see Gawyn anywhere near the storyline at this point and it is clear that he will be the deciding factor in Egwene's survival- and I also assume that the choice is to remain loyal to Elaida or switch loayalties to Egwene and save her.

So by the time all the pieces fall into place, maybe the climax will take a little longer to reach- sometimes the longer wait makes for a more fulfilling climax ;)

[Marie Curie 7]

Another interesting possibility is that at the first and only Egwene's attendance Elaida would change her mind about how Egwene is to be treated. Elaida is notoruious about radical changes of her mind after all. If after a while Elaida decides that Egwene is no more to be treated like a novice, but like a traitor to be punished, it might add to Egwene's aureol that of an anticipated martyr, and this in a moment when execution of Egwene would be too late a move for Elaida...

Yes...I have some thoughts about this that I was planning on submitting as a theory at theoryland.com sometime very soon. Because Elaida is so blind to the fact that Egwene hasn't been broken yet, I believe that their meeting is going to evoke quite the explosion from Elaida, especially since she's been drinking a lot and her temper has been getting away from her.

yes- because we know from the predicitions the axe will be falling and Gawyn will have a choice to make...I always assumed this "axe" would be set in motion by Elaida.

It's certainly possible that Gawyn will be involved somehow, but the axe dream doesn't mention a particular person:

TITLE: Crown of Swords
CHAPTER: 10 - Unseen Eyes

Straps at waist and shoulder held her tightly to the block, and the headsman's axe descended, but she knew that somewhere someone was running, and if they ran fast enough, the axe would stop. If not.... In that corner of her mind, she felt a chill.

The "someone" in the dream may or may not be Gawyn; it may or may not be symbolic. There are some separate dreams that are about Gawyn:

TITLE: Lord of Chaos
CHAPTER: 15 - A Pile of Sand

Given everything, it was no surprise that Gawyn filled her dreams. Sometimes she repeated one of his, though not exactly, of course; in her versions, certain embarrassing events just did not occur, or at least were glossed over. Gawyn spent a good deal more time reciting poetry, and holding her while they watched sunrises and sunsets. He did not stumble over saying he loved her, either. And he looked as handsome as he really was. Others were all her own. Tender kisses that lasted forever. Him kneeling while she cupped his head in her hands. Some made no sense. Twice, right atop one another, she dreamed of taking him by the shoulders and trying to turn him to face the other way against his will. Once he brushed her hands away roughly; the other time, she was somehow stronger than he. The two blended together hazily. In another he began swinging a door closed on her, and she knew if that narrowing gap of light vanished, she was dead.

So this last one and the axe one might be related.

I don't see Gawyn anywhere near the storyline at this point and it is clear that he will be the deciding factor in Egwene's survival- and I also assume that the choice is to remain loyal to Elaida or switch loayalties to Egwene and save her.

When we last saw Gawyn, he was in Dorlan and received orders from Elaida via a messenger (Narenwin):

TITLE: Crossroads of Twilight
CHAPTER: Prologue

"... boatman said he would stay where we landed until the siege lifted," the small woman was saying in weary tones as Gawyn entered, "but he was so frightened, he could be leagues downriver by now." As the cold from the doorway reached her, she looked around, and some of the fatigue drained from her square face. "Gawyn Trakand," she said. "I have orders for you from the Amyrlin Seat, Lord Gawyn."

"Orders?" Gawyn said, drawing off his gauntlets and tucking them behind his belt to gain time. Blunt truth might be in order for once, he decided. "Why would Elaida send me orders? Why should I obey if she did? She disowned me, and the Younglings." Rajar had taken a respectful stance for the sisters, hands folded behind his back, and he gave Gawyn a quick sidelong glance. He would not speak out of turn, whatever Gawyn said, but the Younglings did not share Gawyn's belief. Aes Sedai did what they did, and no man could know why until a sister told him. The Younglings had cast their lots with the White Tower wholeheartedly, embracing fate.

Despite Gawyn's reluctance, I think he's probably part of the raids by the Tower on the rebel supplies (i.e., I expect those were the orders he received), so he's nearby:

TITLE: Crossroads of Twilight
CHAPTER: 16 - The Subject of Negotiations

Two hundred light cavalry, in boiled leather breastplates or coats covered with metal discs, would certainly have attracted notice appearing on the riverbank, but Gareth had convinced her of the necessity of these men with their slender lances and short horsebows. Without any doubt, that smoke plume on the far bank rose from burning wagons or supplies. Pinpricks, yet those pinpricks came every night, sometimes one, sometimes two or three, till everyone looked for smoke first thing on rising. Hunting the raiders down had proved impossible, so far. Sudden snow squalls flared around the pursuers, or fierce freezing night winds, or the tracks simply vanished abruptly, the snow beyond the last hoof-print as smooth as fresh fallen. The residues of weavings made it plain enough they were being aided by Aes Sedai, and there was no point in taking a chance that Elaida had men and maybe sisters on this side of the river, too. Few things could please Elaida more than getting her hands on Egwene al'Vere.

[Yuri33]

It was idle speculation, so therefore not a great deal of thought went into it beyond what I said above - that Elaida's deposition will not surprise me for being too soon.

I clearly labeled it as speculation. However, I think you would agree that given how many people have accepted the non-speculation portions of your theory (including myself), it has still fed the idea in many peoples' minds that the coup could happen at the dinner. That is why this was simply labeled as merely a possibility. I also used this possibility to serve another purpose in the proof--if I could rule out this option (via the timing issues associated with the BT expedition), it would also serve to rule out all major options.

Why? Scenario: Tarna has only come up with one name, a name which she thinks is impossible for the task. She is fretting over it, in that cold Tarna way, because she is to meet with Tsutama after she leaves Elaida, and she knows Tsutama will not be happy. So she and Pevara meet with Tsutama and Tsutama demands to know who they have come up with, and Tarna reluctantly gives her one name and voices her reluctance with whatever details. Pevara has two names, and Tsutama is not happy. She threatens to order a dozen or two Reds to accompany them, and Pevara haggles her down to ordering only Javindhra and Tarna's one impossible choice, saying that six is enough to begin. Bargain sealed, and the four are summoned to Tsutama, and advised to get on with it, today. Because of the rush, there isn't much time for discussion, and little consensus is reached about what sort of men they will bond.

There are a number of hurdles you must overcome to accept a scenario where the Reds leave between Elaida's morning meeting and the dinner:

1. There's no rush. The order to start looking for suitable Red sisters was given almost 2 weeks ago. Nothing has occurred between then and the dinner that requires urgency. Tarna admitted to herself that they were almost nowhere on the morning of dinner, and even if Tsutama were to crack the whip, that doesn't mean they would so drastically advance the timeline. Remember, they hadn't even approached the Jezrail, Melare, or Desala.

2. All of this had to be kept secret. No doubt Tsutama would be frustrated Pevara and Tarna couldn't come up with very many names, but she's fully aware of the gravity of the situation. She wants to avoid letting Elaida know. And while she has a lot of power over other Reds, including the ability to order them not to tell Elaida, she must still tread lightly. A bunch of sisters of the same Ajah all leaving at the same time, including two sitters and the Keeper herself, is a very suspicious sign, especially in the current WT environment. To suddenly go from nowhere to the full expedition in less than a day is rather drastic.

3. There were still significant discussions to be had. You claimed that it's possible little consensus, and therefore little planning, occurred before they left for the BT. There is evidence that after approaching all the Reds who were chosen, significant planning took place:

KoD, Epilogue:
Weary of searching out such tiny clues, weary of probing delicately to learn whether they meant what they might. Pevara had convinced Tsutama that six would be enough to begin. Too, a larger party might cause some unfortunate reaction. After all, the whole Red Ajah appearing at this so-called Black Tower, or even half, might well make the men think themselves under attack. There was no telling how sane they all still were. That was one thing they had agreed on, behind Tsutama’s back. They would bond no men who showed any signs of madness. That was, if they were allowed to bond any.

The quote implies that they not only had significant conversations after all of them had seen Tsutama, but that they had argued over what they were and were not going to do or say. One consensus was that no insane males were to be bonded. Who knows what other agreements they made, or how many other things they disagreed about? Even if you get drafted into service by your superior, your still going to want to talk things out, especially behind the superior's back, and especially for a plan as drastic as this one.

It also seems they had decided ahead of time who was to speak for them, and what she might say:

KoD, Epilogue:
That last word carried a great deal of contempt, which Pevara chose to ignore. Tarna’s eyes could have turned the sun to an icicle, though. Pevara laid a cautionary hand on the other woman’s arm as she spoke. “Reds have experience with men who can channel.” Mutters rose among the watching Asha’man. Angry mutters. She ignored that, too. “We are not afraid of them. Custom can be as hard to change as law, harder at times, but it has been decided to change ours. Henceforth, Red sisters may bond Warders, but only men who can channel. Each sister may bond as many as she feels comfortable with. Given the Green, for example, I think that is unlikely to be more than three or four.”

Pevara is clearly the Reds representative (she thinks to herself that she needs to be diplomatic and courageous--see quote below). Additionally, she lays out the reasons for the proposal to Taim with what seems like a rehearsed speech. In all likelihood, the Reds had to have had discussions about this, and that takes some time.

4. They had to make preparations:

KoD, Epilogue:
The Andoran sun was warm after Tar Valon. Pevara removed her cloak and began tying it behind her saddle as the gateway winked shut, hiding the view of the Ogier grove in Tar Valon. None of them had wanted anyone to see them leaving. They would return to the grove for the same reason, unless matters went very badly. In which case, they might never return. She had thought this task must be carried out by someone who combined the highest diplomatic skills with the courage of a lion. Well, she was no coward, at least. She could say that much of herself.
...
The palace might have belonged to any noble with a taste for tapestries showing battles and red-and-black floor tiles, except that there were no servants in evidence. He had servants, though unfortunately no Red Ajah eyes-and-ears among them, but did he expect them to remain out of sight when not needed or had he ordered them from the halls? Perhaps to avoid having anyone see six Aes Sedai arrive. That line of reasoning ran toward thoughts she would rather not consider. She had acknowledged the dangers before leaving the White Tower. There was no point dwelling on them.
...
This was not going well. She managed not to take a deep breath, but she wanted to. Outwardly, she was cool and calm. Inside, she wondered whether she would end the day forcibly bonded. Or dead. “We want to discuss bonding Asha’man as Warders. After all, you’ve bonded fifty-one sisters. Against their will.” As well to let him know they were aware of that from the start. “We do not propose bonding any man against his will, however.”

This is a mission of the most dangerous sort, with a significant chance of ending up dead or in bondage. Preparations must be made. To go from draftee to life-threatening confrontation in the span of less than a day seems unlikely.

5. It squeezes the timeline on Rand's proposal to the rebel AS. The Chronology says that Narishma laid the bonding proposal to the rebels on the same day as the dinner. Additionally, it's implied that by the time the Reds approach Taim, the rebels have already bonded their 51:

KoD, Epilogue:
A tall, golden-haired man standing near the dais sneered at her. “Why should we allow Aes Sedai to take any m-” Something unseen struck the side of his head so hard that his feet left the floor tiles before he fell in a heap, eyes closed and blood trickling from his nostrils.

Taim was obviously trying to prevent Mishraile from saying "more" and revealing Rand's proposal. This implies that the AM have already been taken, and that's highly improbable in less than a day.

None of these reasons definitively rule out the Reds from being nowhere to going to the BT in less than a day. But it seems very unlikely.

Yes...I have some thoughts about this that I was planning on submitting as a theory at theoryland.com sometime very soon. Because Elaida is so blind to the fact that Egwene hasn't been broken yet, I believe that their meeting is going to evoke quite the explosion from Elaida, especially since she's been drinking a lot and her temper has been getting away from her.

I do agree that Elaida will get angry at Egwene, but I've been thinking that Egwene herself is going to tone it down a little at this dinner. Remember, this dinner is with Miedani--Elaida knows she's a spy, and it's likely that Egwene knows that Elaida knows she's a spy. To push Elaida's buttons would put Miedani in more danger.

It's possible that Egwene uses the dinner to simply gather a little intelligence. She'll see how unhinged Elaida is, and it will redouble her conviction. This is speculation, of course.

[Brita]

It's possible that Egwene uses the dinner to simply gather a little intelligence. She'll see how unhinged Elaida is, and it will redouble her conviction. This is speculation, of course.

I have to admit I will be quite disappointed if this is all it amounts to :(

[Terez]

There are a number of hurdles you must overcome to accept a scenario where the Reds leave between Elaida's morning meeting and the dinner:

1. There's no rush. The order to start looking for suitable Red sisters was given almost 2 weeks ago. Nothing has occurred between then and the dinner that requires urgency. Tarna admitted to herself that they were almost nowhere on the morning of dinner, and even if Tsutama were to crack the whip, that doesn't mean they would so drastically advance the timeline. Remember, they hadn't even approached the Jezrail, Melare, or Desala. How do you know there's no rush? I'd think Tsutama would be getting impatient after two whole weeks, and Tarna's thoughts in her point of view highlight a lot of the reasons why Tsutama might want to get on with it. Just because she had only come up with one name doesn't say anything about Pevara's progress. And yes, I know the other three hadn't been approached, but when everybody's sticking to Ajah quarters all the time, it's a matter of extreme simplicity for Tsutama to summon them.

2. All of this had to be kept secret. No doubt Tsutama would be frustrated Pevara and Tarna couldn't come up with very many names, but she's fully aware of the gravity of the situation. She wants to avoid letting Elaida know. And while she has a lot of power over other Reds, including the ability to order them not to tell Elaida, she must still tread lightly. A bunch of sisters of the same Ajah all leaving at the same time, including two sitters and the Keeper herself, is a very suspicious sign, especially in the current WT environment. To suddenly go from nowhere to the full expedition in less than a day is rather drastic. The secret part is no big deal - they left from the Ogier grove and planned to return the same way, for the reason of secrecy. How would more time have helped them to keep the secret better? They didn't plan on being gone long. ;)

3. There were still significant discussions to be had. You claimed that it's possible little consensus, and therefore little planning, occurred before they left for the BT. There is evidence that after approaching all the Reds who were chosen, significant planning took place Your quote doesn't show "siginificant planning" at all - how much discussion does it take to decide that you don't want to bond a man who shows signs of madness? About two minutes' worth, I think...

The quote implies that they not only had significant conversations after all of them had seen Tsutama, but that they had argued over what they were and were not going to do or say. One consensus was that no insane males were to be bonded. Who knows what other agreements they made, or how many other things they disagreed about? Even if you get drafted into service by your superior, your still going to want to talk things out, especially behind the superior's back, and especially for a plan as drastic as this one. Of course they would have wanted to have long deliberations. That doesn't mean Tsutama would have allowed them that luxury.

It also seems they had decided ahead of time who was to speak for them, and what she might say:

Pevara is clearly the Reds representative (she thinks to herself that she needs to be diplomatic and courageous--see quote below). Additionally, she lays out the reasons for the proposal to Taim with what seems like a rehearsed speech. In all likelihood, the Reds had to have had discussions about this, and that takes some time. You know how this stuff works with Aes Sedai, don't you? Why would you think it would take a long time for them to decide on the highest-ranking Red among them to speak for them? Tarna ranks higher, but not within the Ajah itself, and Pevara is more congenial. Three minutes to decide that...

4. They had to make preparations:

This is a mission of the most dangerous sort, with a significant chance of ending up dead or in bondage. Preparations must be made. To go from draftee to life-threatening confrontation in the span of less than a day seems unlikely. Why? Pevara and Tarna have been working on plans for at least two weeks now. What evidence is there in the Epilogue that any particular preparations were made by the three who just joined them? I don't see any at all. They changed into divided skirts, got their horses, and headed to the Ogier grove.

5. It squeezes the timeline on Rand's proposal to the rebel AS...The Chronology says that Narishma laid the bonding proposal to the rebels on the same day as the dinner. Additionally, it's implied that by the time the Reds approach Taim, the rebels have already bonded their 51 No, it isn't - it's only implied that the order has been given by Rand (they know that Rand is going to let the rebels take 47 Asha'man...why should they allow them to take any more?) We know that Narishma had already left because the Chronology is certain about that much, but the Mishraile comment doesn't imply that the Aes Sedai had already shown up to take people yet.

[Terez]

I emailed the Chronology guy to ask him why he placed the Epilogue where he did (with the ? of course, to show he wasn't sure). Here's his response:

Wow, I haven't done much WOT thinking for a couple of years now; I had to go and dig out some of the old notes! :-)

Yes, the placing of that last entry is just speculation, but I don't think it can be much earlier than where it is, unless the usual chronological sequence is being broken for no apparent reason. The sections of the various prologues and epilogues in the earlier books have always been in chronological order, so the Red expedition to the Black Tower should come no earlier than the previous section of the Epilogue -- Tuon's arrival back in Ebou Dar. And I think putting that five days after the end of chapter 37 is an absolute minimum.

I agree it seems odd that there's such a large expanse of time between the end of chapter 24 and the Epilogue, with Elaida apparently still in control. Tarna is still described in the final scene as "Elaida's Keeper," so despite Egwene seeming to make a lot of progress at undermining Elaida in nine days, she obviously hasn't succeeded yet at toppling her. Possibly the imminent Seanchan attack on the White Tower will put Egwene's plans on hold? That's about the only reason I can think of at the moment.

I expect there will be another large overlap between KOD and book 12 that will make everything clear. It's almost as though KOD has two separate Epilogues -- there's a big gap in the chronology after chapter 30, before the section (chapters 31-37) which wraps up the Elayne and Mat/Tuon threads. I'm sure that gap will be filled in book 12, since with the rapid approach of Tarmon Gai'don it would make no sense to have so many days where nothing is happening in the other threads. This section, as well as the actual Epilogue chapter, can be assumed to be a "flash-forward" into the time period of the next book.

[Yuri33]

She threatens to order a dozen or two Reds to accompany them, and Pevara haggles her down to ordering only Javindhra and Tarna's one impossible choice, saying that six is enough to begin.
...
How do you know there's no rush? I'd think Tsutama would be getting impatient after two whole weeks, and Tarna's thoughts in her point of view highlight a lot of the reasons why Tsutama might want to get on with it.
...
Of course they would have wanted to have long deliberations. That doesn't mean Tsutama would have allowed them that luxury.

I re-quote Pevara's thoughts:

KoD, Epilogue:
Weary of searching out such tiny clues, weary of probing delicately to learn whether they meant what they might. Pevara had convinced Tsutama that six would be enough to begin. Too, a larger party might cause some unfortunate reaction. After all, the whole Red Ajah appearing at this so-called Black Tower, or even half, might well make the men think themselves under attack. There was no telling how sane they all still were. That was one thing they had agreed on, behind Tsutama’s back. They would bond no men who showed any signs of madness. That was, if they were allowed to bond any.

Their primary reason for heading out with only six was out was out of weariness, not Tsutama's impatience. No rush.

Your quote doesn't show "siginificant planning" at all - how much discussion does it take to decide that you don't want to bond a man who shows signs of madness? About two minutes' worth, I think...

I was trying to show that the discussion about bonding madmen was probably one of many. Here's another one:

KoD, Epilogue:
He turned his back, and the vertical silvery slash of a gateway appeared in front of him, widening into an opening no larger than a door. Was that as large as he could make? There had been some discussion about whether to bond men who were as strong as possible or those who were weak. The weak might be more easily controlled, while the strong might-would definitely-be more useful. They had reached no consensus; each sister would have to decide for herself. He darted through the gateway and closed it before she had a chance to see more than a white stone platform with steps leading up one side and a squared-off black stone that might have been one of the building blocks for the wall, polished till it shone in the sun, sitting atop it.

You know how this stuff works with Aes Sedai, don't you? Why would you think it would take a long time for them to decide on the highest-ranking Red among them to speak for them? Tarna ranks higher, but not within the Ajah itself, and Pevara is more congenial.

There was another sitter with them--Javindhra. AS primacy is dependent on strength, and we don't know who is the stronger between the two. A quick check on the 21-level scale at Wotmania shows that they neglected to include Javindhra on it. :(

What evidence is there in the Epilogue that any particular preparations were made by the three who just joined them? I don't see any at all. They changed into divided skirts, got their horses, and headed to the Ogier grove.

I can't offer direct evidence, but as a plausible example, we could consider the case of Melare, who, as has been quoted earlier, "sent money to Andor to pay for her grandnephews’ education as she had for her nephews and nieces." If I were in her shoes, I would need some time to make sure they were set for life. Javindhra is a Sitter, and didn't know she was going until Tsutama forced her. I'm sure she had arrangements to make in the event she couldn't come back. Surely these three recruits, and the one Sitter, upon being told they were heading out on a life-threatening mission, would need some time to set their affairs straight.

it's only implied that the order has been given by Rand (they know that Rand is going to let the rebels take 47 Asha'man...why should they allow them to take any more?)

Okay, let me try another approach then. According to the Chronology, Logain reported to Rand about Taim's activities the day before the dinner:

KoD, News for the Dragon:
The other man took a long swallow of wine. “Taim wasn’t pleased at me taking so many men out of the Tower and not telling him where they were going. I thought he was going to rip up your order. He tried every trick to learn where you are. Oh, he burns to know that. His eyes were practically on fire. I wouldn’t put it past him to have had me put to the question if I’d been fool enough to meet him without company. One thing pleased him, though: that I didn’t take any of his cronies. That was plain on his face.” He smiled, a dark smile, not amused. “There are forty-one of those now, by the way. He’s given over a dozen men the Dragon pin in the past few days, and he has above fifty more in his ’special’ classes, most of them men recruited just lately. He’s planning something, and I doubt you’ll like it.”

So 12 new full AM over a few days, with >50 more in training. Then we see how these numbers have changed when the Reds arrive at the BT:

KoD, Epilogue:
The chamber the Tairen led them to was a throne room, where a ring of spiral-cut black columns supported what must have been the palace’s largest dome, its interior layered with gilt and half filled with gilded lamps hanging on gilded chains. Tall mirrored stand-lamps stood along the curved walls, too. Perhaps a hundred men in black coats were standing to either side of the room. Every man she could see wore the sword and the dragon, men with hard faces, leering faces, cruel faces. Their eyes focused on her and the other sisters.

So that's at least 59 more Taim-allied AM. If the trip to the BT happened on the day of the dinner, that's 59 promotions in one day! No doubt Taim accelerated his promotions upon hearing of Rand's proposal to the rebels, but 59 in one day, when he had been going at a rate of ~3-4 per day previously?

I emailed the Chronology guy to ask him why he placed the Epilogue where he did (with the ? of course, to show he wasn't sure). Here's his response:

I thank you for taking the initiative in doing so. He makes several good points, all of which I think we can agree upon, and all of which support my original claim.

[Terez]

I re-quote Pevara's thoughts: What for? I read them the first time.

Their primary reason for heading out with only six was out was out of weariness, not Tsutama's impatience. No rush. Why would you assume that was the primary reason?

I was trying to show that the discussion about bonding madmen was probably one of many. It was already obvious that they discussed several things. It's not surprising that the only things they could agree on in the short time they had were the obvious conclusions.

There was another sitter with them--Javindhra. I know.

AS primacy is dependent on strength Sitter primacy is dependent on seniority.

I can't offer direct evidence, but as a plausible example, we could consider the case of Melare, who, as has been quoted earlier, "sent money to Andor to pay for her grandnephews’ education as she had for her nephews and nieces." If I were in her shoes, I would need some time to make sure they were set for life. What makes you think those plans haven't already been made? People sometimes wait until they think they're about to die before they set up a Will and Testament - smart people have it done when they're young, though.

Javindhra is a Sitter, and didn't know she was going until Tsutama forced her. I'm sure she had arrangements to make in the event she couldn't come back. Such as what? This argument is not convincing at all...they plan was to come back the same day, obviously, so no big deal, and no arrangements to make. If they die...so? What has to be arranged?

Surely these three recruits, and the one Sitter, upon being told they were heading out on a life-threatening mission, would need some time to set their affairs straight. What affairs? Also, like I said, it was done on Tsutama's order, and they weren't given the luxury of time.

Okay, let me try another approach then. According to the Chronology, Logain reported to Rand about Taim's activities the day before the dinner:

So 12 new full AM over a few days, with >50 more in training. Then we see how these numbers have changed when the Reds arrive at the BT The number didn't change - the number of men Pevara saw equals the number of Taim's total cronies. Just because all the ones Pevara could see were wearing the Dragon doesn't mean they all were, and even if they were, Logain's departure with half the Black Tower would have been a great time to raise them all.

I thank you for taking the initiative in doing so. He makes several good points, all of which I think we can agree upon Why would you presume that?

and all of which support my original claim. Details, dear. ;)

[Frenzy]

Egwene will attend the supper Elaida is having to snare Meidani, one of the rebel ferrets. Elaida may be thinking of taking Meidani down in front of Egwene to futher break the usurper. Or Elaida could find herself in the pickling kettle.

[Terez]

Elaida said she doesn't want her broken. But she might change her mind after dealing with her...

[Yuri33]

Why would you assume that was the primary reason?
Because it's the first reason listed. Because there's no evidence for another, more important, reason.

Sitter primacy is dependent on seniority.
Sitter primacy is relevant only in regards to the Hall. This is most definitely not Hall business. Plus, it doesn't matter, there is still uncertainty as to who has primacy in any circumstance--we don't know who is stronger, who is older, or who has been in the Hall the longest.

People sometimes wait until they think they're about to die before they set up a Will and Testament - smart people have it done when they're young, though.

You're pretty smart (and 30 is pretty young, I guess :)). If you received a letter today drafting you into the military, are you all set? Throw a couple of clothes in a bag and meet you at the corner?

they plan was to come back the same day, obviously, so no big deal, and no arrangements to make. If they die...so? What has to be arranged?

That draft letter also states that they're sending you into Afghanistan, to meet with bin Laden for a negotiation. It'll only take a couple of days, if you make it back. Are you all set to go?

Also, like I said, it was done on Tsutama's order, and they weren't given the luxury of time.

The time constraint is your speculation. Any evidence for that? Any evidence Tarna and Pevara even met Tsutama on the day of the dinner?

Logain's departure with half the Black Tower would have been a great time to raise them all.

Half the BT is in the field. ~100 are Taim's cronies. That still leaves a lot of AM loyal to Rand still at the BT. >50 promotions in one day is going to raise a lot of suspicion, even more than what Logain suspected. Possible, but not likely.

Why would you presume that?
Care to offer a point by point refutation of his response?

and all of which support my original claim.Details, dear.
Are we reading the same thing?

Claim: the Reds left for the BT after the Elaida\Egwene dinner.

I don't think it can be much earlier than where it is, unless the usual chronological sequence is being broken for no apparent reason. The sections of the various prologues and epilogues in the earlier books have always been in chronological order, so the Red expedition to the Black Tower should come no earlier than the previous section of the Epilogue -- Tuon's arrival back in Ebou Dar. And I think putting that five days after the end of chapter 37 is an absolute minimum.

Epilogues occur in chronological order, Tuon comes back way after the dinner, the BT scene occurs after the Tuon scene.

This section, as well as the actual Epilogue chapter, can be assumed to be a "flash-forward" into the time period of the next book.

In other words, it most likely occurred well after the dinner.

Your original objection was based on a speculation that loosely fitted the facts, but you didn't offer any evidence, direct, circumstantial, or otherwise, in support of it. Your scenario only allows for a narrow window where many things need to happen. My claim only requires that the journey from Tarna mulling over choices to the actual BT trip took longer than a day, and I additionally offered circumstantial evidence to support it.

Elaida said she doesn't want her broken. But she might change her mind after dealing with her...

This would require that no major event happen at the dinner, which is the thesis of my original post.

[Terez]

Because it's the first reason listed. Because there's no evidence for another, more important, reason.
There's not enough evidence to assume a primary reason at all.

Sitter primacy is relevant only in regards to the Hall.
You should know better than that. It governs the actions of the Black Ajah hunters - that's why Saerin is in charge.

I'm in class, so that's all I have time for now.

[Yuri33]

There's not enough evidence to assume a primary reason at all.

Your scenario, where everything happens in a day, requires one (Tsutama's impatience). My scenario does not.

[a dragonburned fool]

I'm sorry, Yuri, but about the possibility of Tsutama to push Tarna and Peavra to come immediately, well... I've seen several cases when a boss orders some subordinates to do something, and time passes and the subordinates don't do it because it's tricky and there is lot to prepare and so on and so on. And time passes and the boss seem to have forgotten, but sudenly he remembers and begins to shout on the subordinates what useless do-nothings they are, and orders it to be done right now. Not because it is needed right now, but because the boss is frustrated. And the task is done really with great expedience, and with many things not prepared properly because of the rush, and with immense load of curses from the part of the subordinates, but it's done. The quality of the result is another thing. It's very common situation I think. It requires only the right kind of boss. Tsutama is exactly this type of boss.



Elaida said she doesn't want her broken. But she might change her mind after dealing with her...

This would require that no major event happen at the dinner, which is the thesis of my original post.Why would it require a major for every sister event. As I see it it would require only a major event in Elaida's head. The consequencies of this major event might not come out to the Tower's knowledge until some time passes. Elaida wouldn't like all the Tower to know how she cannot deal with a single novice.

[Marie Curie 7]

Sitter primacy is relevant only in regards to the Hall. This is most definitely not Hall business. Plus, it doesn't matter, there is still uncertainty as to who has primacy in any circumstance--we don't know who is stronger, who is older, or who has been in the Hall the longest.

We may not know about their relative strengths, but we know that Pevara has been in the Hall longer than Javindhra. The three Red Sitters before Elaida's coup were Pevara, Elaida, and Teslyn. After the coup, Elaida had to be replaced, and Elaida demoted Teslyn and sent her to Ebou Dar. Elaida and Teslyn were replaced with Javindhra and Duhara.

[Yuri33]

You should know better than that. It governs the actions of the Black Ajah hunters - that's why Saerin is in charge.

We may not know about their relative strengths, but we know that Pevara has been in the Hall longer than Javindhra. The three Red Sitters before Elaida's coup were Pevara, Elaida, and Teslyn. After the coup, Elaida had to be replaced, and Elaida demoted Teslyn and sent her to Ebou Dar. Elaida and Teslyn were replaced with Javindhra and Duhara.

Point conceded.

It requires only the right kind of boss. Tsutama is exactly this type of boss.

KoD, Prologue:
Mention of what the Forsaken had done twelve days ago brought a grimace, though, despite her efforts at keeping a smooth face. So much of the Power wielded in one place could have been no one else. To the extent she could, she avoided thinking about that or what they might have been trying to accomplish. Or worse, what they might have accomplished. A second wince came at hearing the proposal to bond Asha’man named as hers. But that had been inevitable from the moment she presented Tarna’s suggestion to Tsutama, while holding her breath against the eruption she was sure would come. She had even used the argument of increasing the size of linked circles by including men, against that monstrous display of the Power. Surprisingly, there had been no eruption, and small reaction of any kind. Tsutama merely said she would think on it, and insisted on having the relevant papers about men and circles delivered to her from the Library. The third wince, the largest, was for having to work with Javindhra, for being saddled with the job at all. She had more than enough on her plate at the moment, besides which, working with Javindhra was always painful. The woman argued against anything put forward by anyone save herself. Nearly anything.

Tsutama is dictatorial, but she's also deliberate. Combine this with Pevara's thoughts on weariness in finding suitable Reds, and the more likely scenario is that Tsutama was holding them back, not pushing them forward. It's another piece of evidence that contradicts the idea that her impatience would accelerate the BT trip, especially when we're only talking about a one day window. It's once again circumstantial, but these kinds of pieces are all we have to go on.

[Terez]

I don't know why you used that quote - this is when the idea was first introduced to her, and she had not yet made up her mind whether or not it was a good idea. Once it was decided, and the orders were given to Javindhra and the others, she might have rushed it for no other reason than to get it done before they lost their nerve enough to disobey her.

[Yuri33]

Once it was decided, and the orders were given to Javindhra and the others, she might have rushed it for no other reason than to get it done before they lost their nerve enough to disobey her.

Evidence? Circumstantial or otherwise?

[Terez]

Why would you need evidence for that? It's plausible speculation, and all the plausible speculation we're giving you serves to show that things aren't as clear as you're trying to make them out to be. ;)

[Yuri33]

There's a difference between plausible and likely. In the absence of definitive proof, you go with likely, since any number of plausible but improbable scenarios could be created.

If I have to compare your one day scenario with an alternative more-than-one day scenario, I'd say the second is more probable.

In my original post, I never claimed the one day hole was definitively plugged. I simply said it was unlikely, because it was based on circumstantial evidence. That's the best that can be done, but it's not a fatal flaw.

[Terez]

There's a difference between plausible and likely. Sure, but all that's subject to opinion. You have no more evidence for your position than I do.

[GonzoTheGreat]

I would say that he does have a bit more evidence, but not enough to make it conclusive.

[Enigma]

A lot could happen at the dinner which would be imporant for Egwene that might not registere for the Sitters going to the Black Tower.

The Black Ajah hunters are focusing on hunting for the BA and their day to day Ajah activities. They would be aware of Egwene's situation but none of them seem to be really interested in what is happening to her, from their pov they have bigger issues to worry about than the disciplining of a runaway accepted who the rebels chose as a figurehead.

[Terez]

Yet three of the conspirating five Ajah heads have been among Egwene's instructors. I like it. :D

[Mort]

Three? Really? I must've forgotten it were that many.

One thing I've been thinking on is that if Egwene is at Elaida's supper, she will most likely be doped up real good and won't be able to channel much or at all. She won't be able to defend herself at all when the Seanchan comes, they will run over that little office of Elaida in a heart beat.

If the attack happens that way, Egwene is gonna be a captive for a bit. Unless the mysterious Seanchan woman swoops in and saves her for some unknown reason.

By the way, do we know what that tea has for symptoms other than a limiting use of the power? Like what is being felt by people around them? If seanchan thinks she is no threat to them, a seemingly weak novice, they are in for a treat later :D

[Birgitte]

I'd say that Yuri's possibility is much more likely. Given the average rate of any group Aes Sedai movement, the five days that the chronology guy suggests *is* rushing. Especially the normal Tower Aes Sedai in this day and age where everyone is taking paranoid to fun new levels. They need to talk to each other and lay out plans. They probably would have to avoid bringing everyone together at once in the Tower, since people are so suspicious of any meeting. Yeah, they're all the same Ajah, which makes it somewhat easier, but I honestly can't believe that seven sisters gathering together wouldn't cause rumors to fly. They need caution and they really can't be cautious and get their shit together in a few hours. How will they not be missed? Yeah, Travelling can get them there and back within the day (if they know Travelling... I'm not sure they do), but they don't Travel to right by somewhere with that many people, which means some horse travel to get there and back to the Travelling grounds they choose.

And they aren't just going to pick some random men to bond right then, which means arranging to meet and get to know as many as possible (at the very least, talk to them enough to see they aren't immediately going insane). Assuming they go with another meeting, rather than getting the bonding done with right away, which is really hard to say that that's what they definitely going with, since they were talking about criteria.

Anyway, point is, they're going to be gone for awhile. And it will be noticed. And they don't want to raise suspicions. So they need to come up with something to keep the other Aes Sedai from assuming the worst about them and accusing them of being Black Ajah or traitors or something. (Note that I'm obviously not suggesting that the hunters will accuse them of being Black.) They need cover their going or leave at staggered times, so people don't connect their leavings. It will take time. More than just the few hours between morning and dinnertime. I'm actually genuinely surprised you're arguing it, Terez. It's really incredibly illogical to assume that they'd leave that day. Sure Yuri doesn't have a whole lot of real evidence, but it makes a lot more sense than what you're arguing for.

I suspect we'll just get to see Elaida throw a temper tantrum. That should be entertaining, even if it is a bit anti-climatic.

[Terez]

Yeah, Travelling can get them there and back within the day (if they know Travelling... I'm not sure they do) Yeah, that's how they got there. ;)
but they don't Travel to right by somewhere with that many people Apparently they did - the Epilogue begins with them coming through the gateway, and it didn't seem to take them more than a few minutes to reach the gates.

All of the rest of your objections are pretty silly...it's too late for them to stagger their departure times, since they all left together. It seems pretty obvious that they're intending on returning that day, whether with Warders or no, and it might not take them long at all to pick which ones they want to bond. Who knows? They're not bonding them for the normal reasons, and if all they need is someone to watch their back, then any Asha'man would be more equipped than any Warder.

[a dragonburned fool]

Yuri, I think that the mass of circumstantial evidence about Tsutama support rather a scenario where she would enforce a sudden rushed action. But before I come into detail about this, I think there is something rather supporting your line of reasoning:
KoD, ch.38:
"A fine morning to you, Aes Sedai," the Dedicated said with a small bow as they reined in before him. A very small bow, never taking
his eyes from them. His accents were those of Murandy. "Now what would six sisters be wanting here at the Black Tower this fine
morning?"
It's morning when Tarna met Elaida, and it's morning when Tarna comes to the Black Tower. The Black Tower is to west in relation to the White Tower, but not much to west, and I don't think they would be in different time zones, so it might be reasoned thatmorning in both places means approximately the same. All taht narrows the time window for Tarna to spend between her report to Elaida and her meeting with Tsutama really small. Once Tsutama comes into the mood to push things, everything can move really fast, but first Tarna has to come to Tsutama. I doubt she would rush to that having in mind her troubles with finding the names. Also in the meeting with Elaida Tarna doesn't mention the prospect of meeting Tsutama very soon and reporting about her problems with finding names. All that makes it more likely that the day of Egwene's attendance and teh day of the mission to BT are two different days.

Tsutama is dictatorial, but she's also deliberate. Combine this with Pevara's thoughts on weariness in finding suitable Reds, and the more likely scenario is that Tsutama was holding them back, not pushing them forward. It's another piece of evidence that contradicts the idea that her impatience would accelerate the BT trip, especially when we're only talking about a one day window. It's once again circumstantial, but these kinds of pieces are all we have to go on.

Your quote is refering Pevara's reminiscence about a meeting with Tsutama previous to the meeting in KoD Prologue. The text right before your quote goes as following:

KoD, Prologue:
…. Well, you know what happened as bloody well as I. The world
has become a more dangerous place than at any time since the Trolloc Wars, perhaps since the Breaking itself. Therefore I’ve decided
we will move forward with your scheme for these flaming Asha’man, Pevara. Distasteful and hazardous, yet burn me, there is no
bloody choice. You and Javindhra will arrange it together.”
Pevara winced. Not for the Seanchan. They were human, whatever strange ter’angreal they possessed, and they would be defeated
eventually.This means that at the previous meeting Tsutama was still undecided about the asha'man bonds question, she wanted to think about. Now, at the Prologue meeting she declares that she thought as she thought and she came to a decision. And an order to arrange comes. It doesn't look like Tsutama holding them back. She might hold them back at the previous meeting when she herself was not convinced. Now Tsutama is convinced and she gives an order to start the preparations for the operation.

Once issueing the order Tsutama seems to find the case closed. After giving the order and briefly saying to Javindhra, that Elaida shouldn't learn, she dismisses both of them dryly:
KoD, Prologue:
“I’m very glad that you both agree with me,” Tsutama said dryly, leaning back in her chair. “Now, leave me.”

Looking at Tsutama's general style of behavior, it seems that she is a type of person who never approach things delicately, who usually doesn't waste time in long speaking, but when decided about something she would directly demand what she has to demand without any trace of concern about anybody's feelings. So in NS, chapter6 six Sitters approached Moiraine indirectly speaking about her prospects to get the Sun Throne, but Tsutama approached her most directly asking he what she thinks of becomming Queen. But more about Tsutama's style to do with things is in KoD.
KoD, Prologue:
“Flamboyant” was exactly the word for her appearance. Tsutama was a strikingly beautiful woman, her hair caught in a fine golden net, with firedrops thick at her throat and ears and dressed as always in crimson silk that molded her full bosom, today with golden scrollwork embroidery to increase the emphasis. You might almost think she wanted to attract men, if you did not know her. Tsutama had made her dislike of men well known long before being sent into exile; she would have given mercy to a rabid dog before a man. Back then, she had been hammer-hard, yet many had thought her a broken reed when she returned to the Tower. For a while, they had. Then everyone who spent any time near her realized that those shifting eyes were far from nervous. Exile had changed her, only not toward softness.
Those eyes belonged on a hunting cat, searching for enemies or prey. The rest of Tsutama’s face was not so much serene as it was still, an unreadable mask. Unless you pushed her to open anger, at least. Even then her voice would remain as calm as smooth ice, though. An unnerving combination.
“I heard disturbing rumors this morning about the battle at Dumai’s Wells,” she said abruptly. “Bloody disturbing.” She had the habits now of long silences, no small talk, and sudden, unexpected statements.
So, long silences, not indirect approach, and suddenly burst of activity. Without any patience. Pevara also mentions that every time expecting to displease Tsutama, she waited for her "eruption". Exactly "eruption" was the word, and Pevara tought about this as about usual for Tsutama. This means that Tsutama has zero patience when somebody dissapoints her. This lack of patience combined with the deliberate flamboyance and show of power, and combined with the never-fraternize-with-subordinates attitude, put Tsutama in a quite classical type of approach to role of authority, where she enforces her supremacy by dazzling her subordinates with her magnificience and cracking with her whip to move them faster. An approach similar to that of a circus lion tamer before animal cruelty became an issue. This style of command implies that the commander strives to have full immediate control over the tempo of teh execution, and that sudden rushed bursts of actvity are preferred. Hesitation would be absolutely not tolerated. Such liontamer wouldn't consider cooling heads. If action is necessary it should be triggered suddenly, accompanied with the cracking sound of the metaphorical whip. So I don't think that it would match Tsutama's style to allow gradual action when she dicedes to start an action. Just not her style.

KoD, Prologue:
Tsutama had been raised to replace her by near acclamation. She had possessed a very good reputation as a Sitter, at least before her involvement in the disgusting events that led to her downfall, and many in the Red believed the times called for as hard a Highest as could be found. Galina’s death had lifted a great weight from Pevara’s shoulders—the Highest, a Darkfriend; oh, that had been agony!—yet she was uncertain about Tsutama. There was something…wild…about her, now.
Something unpredictable. Was she entirely sane? But then, the same question could be asked regarding the whole White Tower. How
many of the sisters were entirely sane, now?
This also speaks about the style and reputation Tsutama is maintaining. Her actions tend to be sudden, eruption-like.

KoD, chapter 38:
Javindhra was there only at Tsutama's command, given when Pe-vara and Tarna could not come up with enough names to suit the
Highest. The angular Sitter did not bother to hide her displeasure over that, not from Pevara. although she had buried it deeply around
Tsutama.
Which suggests that Tsutama was quite displeasured that there were not enough names, i.e. that Pevara failed the "arrange" the things as Tsutama ordered her. And when displeased Tsutama is known to usually erupt.

KoD, chapter 38:
Weary of searching out such tiny clues, weary of probing delicately to learn whether they meant what they might. Pevara had
convinced Tsutama that six would be enough to begin. Too, a larger party might cause some unfortunate reaction. After all, the whole
Red Ajah appearing at this so-called Black Tower, or even half, might well make the men think themselves under attack. There was no
telling how sane they all still were. That was one thing they had agreed on, behind Tsutama's back. They would bond no men who
showed any signs of madness. That was, if they were allowed to bond any.
Why such obvious thing as that no insane men should be bonded must be agreed "behind Tsutama's back". Obviously because all the sisters involved were sure that Tsutama would have zero tolerance to everything, be it reasonable or not, that could slightly ressemble an attempt to dodge a part of the task. Or possibly that Tsutama was in a such angry state at taht moment that she wouldn't accept anything except "Yes, Hightest! Will be done immediately, Hightest!". If this is not a sign of blatant rush from Tsutama's side, what's it then?

Tsutama would rather say that Pevara and Tarna already had enough time to prepare, and that if they not act now, they would find reasons to prepare until it becomes too late. Tsutama seems to believe that a push strong enough can compensate a lot of unpreparedness.

KoD, chapter 38:
There had been some discussion about whether to bond men who were as strong as possible
or those who were weak. The weak might be more easily controlled, while the strong might—would definitely—be more useful. They
had reached no consensus; each sister would have to decide for herself. It's another sign of rush. Which policy of binding to have seems a quite important thing to coordinate if a planning is done properly. But they just decided after "some" (not "long") discussion that every sister has to do as she finds it good. I.e. they decided to go on without a proper plan. Isn't this a sign of rush?

Once Pevara and Tarna came to Tsutama with unsuficiently empty list, and met Tsutama's anger about and decided to start the operation with lowered acceptance criteria for sisters taking part, a new reason to rush occurs: the fact that Tarna cannot find sisters trustable enough is the reason:
KoD, chapter 25:
Besides, not having to watch over her shoulder allowed her to think on Pevara's troubling question, one she had not considered before
suggesting the bonding of Asha'man. Who in the Red actually could be trusted with the task? Hunting men who could channel led Red
sisters to look askance at all men, and a fair number hated them. A surviving brother or father might well escape hatred, a favorite
cousin or uncle, but once they were all gone, so was affection. And trust. And there was another matter of trust. Bonding any man
violated custom strong as law. Even with Tsutama's blessings, who might run to Elaida when bonding Asha'man was broached? She
had removed three more names from her mental list of possibilities by the time she reached the entrance to Elaida's apartments, only
two floors below the top of the Tower. After almost two weeks, her list of those she could be certain of still contained only a single
name, and that one was impossible for the task.
If there is a suspicion that Jezaril or Melare or Desala would panic and run to Elaida and spoil all the operation, then couldn't you find out a very easy way to prevent this? Well: Tsutama summons Melare, Desala and Jezrail in riding dresses already and says them they should go immediately, without hesitating for any preparations. Pevara, Tarna and Javindhra would be already there and dressed for riding. Finished with Tsuatma they will go directly to the Ogier grove giving no chance to any of the three new sisters to run to Elaida.

[Yuri33]

It's morning when Tarna met Elaida, and it's morning when Tarna comes to the Black Tower. The Black Tower is to west in relation to the White Tower, but not much to west, and I don't think they would be in different time zones, so it might be reasoned thatmorning in both places means approximately the same. All taht narrows the time window for Tarna to spend between her report to Elaida and her meeting with Tsutama really small.

aDBF, that's a very keen observation, and represent direct evidence rather than all this circumstantial stuff we've been arguing about. I'd also like to add that we can't be sure how long Tarna spent with Elaida that morning:

KoD, Attending Elaida:
“And now your reports. Tarna.” Elaida sat down again and crossed her legs.
Replacing her barely touched goblet on the tray, Tarna took up her folder and sat in the chair Meidani had been using. “The redone wards appear to be keeping rats out of the Tower. Mother.” for how long was another question; she checked those wards herself every day, “but ravens and crows have been seen in the Tower grounds, so the wards on the walls must be…”

She has an entire folder of items to be addressed--I would say Tarna spent a good portion of the morning with Elaida. The window for leaving is quite narrow now.

As far as your concerns about Tsutama--I'm willing to concede that she's capable of impatience, even great impatience, but not to the point of "you will leave for the Black Tower NOW! TODAY!" type impatience. Elaida yes, Tsutama, not so much.

Well: Tsutama summons Melare, Desala and Jezrail in riding dresses already and says them they should go immediately, without hesitating for any preparations.

Melare, Desala, and Jezrail don't seem any more nervous than the other who knew abut the trip ahead of time. I mean, imagine yourself in their shoes: Your leader summons you to a secret meeting, says you are going to the most feared place for an AS (other than Shayol Ghul itself), and you are leaving right now. Oh, and keep this away from the Amyrillin. Given that situation, I don't think something like pulling out a book and reading while waiting is the type of behavior we'd see:

KoD, Epilogue:
They waited in silence except for the occasional stamp of a hoof, Pevara schooling herself to patience, Javindhra grumbling under her breath. Pevara could not make out the words, but she knew grumbling when she heard it. Tama and Jezrail took books from their saddlebags and read. Good. Let these Asha’man see that they were unconcerned. Only, not even the boy seemed impressed. He and the Saldaean just stood there in the middle of the gate watching, hardly blinking.

Sure, the whole book thing could have been a tactic, but it's kind of weird if they were just summoned this morning for the mission.

Finally, the whole scenario depends on Tarna only having one name while Pevara has two. Except that assumption depends on another assumption--that they were working separately to find the candidates. However, there's evidence that they were working together on the names:

KoD, Epilogue:
Javindhra was there only at Tsutama’s command, given when Pe-vara and Tarna could not come up with enough names to suit the Highest. The angular Sitter did not bother to hide her displeasure over that, not from Pevara. although she had buried it deeply around Tsutama. Tarna was there, of course, pale-haired and icy cold, her Keeper’s stole left behind but her divided gray skirts embroidered in red to the knee. For Elaida’s Keeper to have a Warder would be difficult, though the men were to be housed in the city, away from the Tower, yet it had all been her idea in the first place, and she was. if not eager, then determined to take part in this first experiment. Besides, the need for numbers was paramount, because they had found only three other sisters willing to entertain the idea. The primary task of the Red for so long, finding men who could channel and bringing them to the Tower to be gentled, tended to sour women on all men, so the clues had been few and far between. Jezrail was a square-faced Tairen who kept a painted miniature of the boy she had almost married instead of coming to the Tower. His grandchildren would be grandparents now, but she still spoke of him fondly. Desala, a beautiful Cairhienin with large dark eyes and an unfortunate temper, when given the chance would dance any number of men to exhaustion in a night. And Melare, plump and witty, with a love of conversation, sent money to Andor to pay for her grandnephews’ education as she had for her nephews and nieces.

Combine this with Tarna's musing earlier on Pevara's question:

KoD, Attending Elaida:
Besides, not having to watch over her shoulder allowed her to think on Pevara’s troubling question, one she had not considered before suggesting the bonding of Asha’man. Who in the Red actually could be trusted with the task? Hunting men who could channel led Red sisters to look askance at all men, and a fair number hated them. A surviving brother or father might well escape hatred, a favorite cousin or uncle, but once they were all gone, so was affection. And trust. And there was another matter of trust. Bonding any man violated custom strong as law. Even with Tsutama’s blessings, who might run to Elaida when bonding Asha’man was broached? She had removed three more names from her mental list of possibilities by the time she reached the entrance to Elaida’s apartments, only two floors below the top of the Tower. After almost two weeks, her list of those she could be certain of still contained only a single name, and that one was impossible for the task.

It seems to me like they were working closely together on the names, not independently. Yet as of the morning of the dinner, Tarna was only aware of one candidate. I mean, it makes sense, doesn't it? They don't want to overlap their inquires, and would probably need to bounce ideas\information off each other. Keeping each other in the dark about their progress would be counter-productive.

Anyways, with the addition of aDBF's information, I'm satisfied with the evidence, direct and indirect, that the Reds didn't go the BT on the same day of the dinner. That means that they had to leave after the dinner. If anyone wants to belabor the point longer, that's fine, but I'm done on that aspect.

If we can agree on that point, then it comes down to what events can happen at the dinner that don't impact the feasibility of the BT expedition. I would say any type of coup is out, as well as the Seanchan attack. Any other ideas?

[a dragonburned fool]

As far as your concerns about Tsutama--I'm willing to concede that she's capable of impatience, even great impatience, but not to the point of "you will leave for the Black Tower NOW! TODAY!" type impatience. Elaida yes, Tsutama, not so much.Unless Tsutama does believe that further preparations would only hinder the task. And it seems that this was actually the case. Look, every sister involved was completely scared about doing it, no one of them was liking the job. In such circumstances usually every difficulty becomes a subconscious excuse to make the preparations process guaranteed endless. The way they only reduced the list to effectively nobody for two weeks hard work is a good prediction of how all the other elements of preparations would process. The classical solution for such situation is usually a rude push. It would have the cost of some things unprepared enough, but it would simplify the task for the job-doers by signifiacntly reducing the burden of hard decisions they have to make and they might be incapable to make. It's what Tsutama seems to have done, and I wouldn't say it wasn't the right thing under circumstances. Her impatience helped a lot, but it wasn't just Elaida's blind impatience. Tsutama maintains her style because it was proven to work for her.

Melare, Desala, and Jezrail don't seem any more nervous than the other who knew abut the trip ahead of time. I mean, imagine yourself in their shoes: Your leader summons you to a secret meeting, says you are going to the most feared place for an AS (other than Shayol Ghul itself), and you are leaving right now. Oh, and keep this away from the Amyrillin. Given that situation, I don't think something like pulling out a book and reading while waiting is the type of behavior we'd seeWell I personally use exactly reading a book or a newspaper when I'm under high stress and have to stay still on some place and just wait. If I don't read the book I would have to think only about the thing that stresses me and it's unbearable. Taking a book (this book must not require mental concentration to be read of course) makes my mind at least partially busy with something else. With anything else, no matter what.

The way Pevara thinks how it is good for two of the sisters to show signs of not being scared only underlines how much Pevara knows that all the sisters present are actually scared.

It seems to me like they were working closely together on the names, not independently. Yet as of the morning of the dinner, Tarna was only aware of one candidate. I mean, it makes sense, doesn't it? They don't want to overlap their inquires, and would probably need to bounce ideas\information off each other. Keeping each other in the dark about their progress would be counter-productive.Tarna wants not just a candidate, but a candidate whom she might trust. And she specifically mentions two things about to trust - first whether the sister would really agree to bind asha'mans, second whether she would agree to hold it back form the Amyrlin. After reasoning the second point Tarna removed three names form her mental list. Which meant she was unsure about the second point concerning ... which three sisters come after all with them? So Tarna had actually a series of lists of candidates with different level of trust on them. Tsutama only needed to lower the level of requirements.

[Yuri33]

After reasoning the second point Tarna removed three names form her mental list. Which meant she was unsure about the second point concerning ... which three sisters come after all with them? So Tarna had actually a series of lists of candidates with different level of trust on them. Tsutama only needed to lower the level of requirements.

You're forgetting that Tarna still had one name left. By your reasoning, there would be 4 extra Reds on the trip--excluding Pevara, Javhindra, and Tarna herself.

[Nazbaque]

Just to add my two cents:

When Tarna goes to see Elaida she has the morning reports. Now Tarna could very well be going to see Elaida as early as 6 o'clock, but with all those reports? 7 o'clock is streaching it far and even 8 o'clock is quite a feat. 9 o'clock is more sensible.

Also Meidani is there sipping wine with Elaida. Dressed for a ball. Sipping wine in the early morning implies a breakfast together, which would have taken a good hour unless the two were in a hurry which is unlikely since they are now sipping wine. Now breakfast at 7 o'clock dressed like that? No way. Again 8 o'clock at the earliest and 9 is more likely. So they would be finished at 9 in the earliest.

And as was pointed out the Dedicated at the gates comments on the fine morning. Twice. Now this could be as late as 11:59 in our society where clocks are everywhere for anyone's use. But in theirs? 11 o'clock latest and more likely between 9 and 10.

So let's say Tarna goes to Elaida at 9 o'clock, and the Dedicated greets them at 11 o'clock. That leaves 2 hours to go through the motions with Elaida which could easily be an hour and a half, but lets say an hour. Glide from Elaida's study to Red Ajah quarters another hour but let's say a half. It is now 10:30 in the earliest and more likely 11:30. Even with Tsutama's whip cracking it has to take at least half an our to get them going. 11 o'clock in the earliest and more likely 12:30 and already too late. Glide to the stables to get the horses at least half an hour and likely more. 11:30. To the Grove without a rush that arouses suspicion another half an hour in the least. 12 o'clock. In to the gateway to the dirt road and following that to the BT gate another half an hour. 12:30. Would a Dedicated used to BT decipline call that morning? Hardly and that was with a streach. More likely 3 o'clock in the afternoon and no one calls that a morning. Well I do on sundays but that's beside the point.

So they are two different days and thus the Seanchan attack or Elaida's disposal doesn't happen on the day Egwene is attending to Elaida for the first time.

[Weird Harold]

When Tarna goes to see Elaida she has the morning reports. Now Tarna could very well be going to see Elaida as early as 6 o'clock, but with all those reports? 7 o'clock is streaching it far and even 8 o'clock is quite a feat. 9 o'clock is more sensible.

I think your estimates are about two hours late -- The WOT is a pre-electric light society and that changes the daily pattern of life even for city-dwellers.

According to the ChronologyWOT, Tarna's morning meeting with Elaida is the equivalent of "Early April" which would put a non-daylight-savings-time dawn at about 0500-0530.

A typical pre-electric light day would start about 30 minutes before dawn and "morning reports" no more than two hours later -- or about 0700-0730. That leaves nearly five hours to rush through any recruitment and convincing required and get to the gates of the BT while it was still "morning" instead of the three you compute.

That's still a very short time to be a plausible scenario, but it's less problematic than your timing makes it.

[Nazbaque]

WH Tarna has the morning reports. This means ppl who gave her the reports have taken the half an hour to write them and the other half an hour to take them to her. And that is after they finished whatever they were reporting about. To assume all those things were done in a matter of minutes is laughable. Lets allow the more problematic ones an hour. That's two hours from when they start working to Tarna having the reports and then Tarna Glides to Elaida's study on top of the White Tower which has to take at least another half an hour. So she is there at 8 earliest.

And I notice you conviniently skipped the part about Meidani being there dressed for a ball and sipping wine.

But it still only cuts one hour from my calculations. giving them four and not three. So with that remarkable streach they would be hearing the "fine morning" at 11:30 which is as good as noon if a pocket watch doesn't say otherwise and would therefore be a "fine day"

[Yuri33]

Everyday people in WoT may live in a pre-electric society, but the AS, and the AM, both have light whenever they want it. They are both very insular in their cultures as well, so it's easy for them to develop unique daily schedules outside societal norms.

So there's a case to be made that their normal operating hours are similar to ours. Regardless, the window for all this stuff to happen is unreasonably small.

[Weird Harold]

WH Tarna has the morning reports. This means ppl who gave her the reports have taken the half an hour to write them and the other half an hour to take them to her. ...


Having spent 20+ years in a culture built on "morning reports" I can assure you that the morning reports are written just before close of business the previous night. They're only "morning" reports because that's when they're summarized for the commander in th emorning briefing.

In that respect, a standing Military, Monastaries, Convents and the White Tower are indistinguishable except for wha the call the commander and the morning briefer. :D

And I notice you conviniently skipped the part about Meidani being there dressed for a ball and sipping wine.

Irrelevant -- if she spent the night with Elaida then she would have been up and dressed (in whatever she wore last night) when Elaida got up and got dressed so she could eat breakfast with Elaida. If she didn't, she'd have to go all the way down to the mess hall or her own quarters to get breakfast.

Meidani's schedule would be dictated by Elaida's schedule and Elaida is almost OCD about keeping to a schedule.

[Weird Harold]

Everyday people in WoT may live in a pre-electric society, but the AS, and the AM, both have light whenever they want it. They are both very insular in their cultures as well, so it's easy for them to develop unique daily schedules outside societal norms.

The AM use the OP for everything, so they would likely develop a later work pattern than normal for pre-electric societies.

The WT however, frowns on "frivilous use" of Saidar and there is frequent mention of "lighting candles" being the extent of frivilous or mundane tasks done with the OP.

Without doing a detailed search, I have the impression that AS are typical pre-electric early risers and early sleepers with only a few exceptions.

It's pretty much a moot point, though, because the timing is simply too tight -- whenever Elaida hears the morining reports or how quickly Tarna can get through them (an hour is a typical time allotment for "morning reports" -- much more than that and they tend to take over the commander's day.)

[Nazbaque]

The AM use the OP for everything, so they would likely develop a later work pattern than normal for pre-electric societies.
They could but I don't think they have developed that far yet. First of all most of the BT men have only been channelling for a few months and that is not enough to change 15 to 60 years of habits. Second, why would they? They have to sleep sometime so why not at night. And thirdly I don't think Taim would allow it simply because strict early rising is a good tool for keeping dicipline.

[Weird Harold]

They could but I don't think they have developed that far yet. First of all most of the BT men have only been channelling for a few months and that is not enough to change 15 to 60 years of habits. Second, why would they? They have to sleep sometime so why not at night. And thirdly I don't think Taim would allow it simply because strict early rising is a good tool for keeping dicipline.
One of the first manefestations of a change in work/sleep patterns caused by artificial lighting was sixteen hour workdays in factories.

Early rising is typical of miltary and para-military discipline, but so are long workdays and "burning the midnight oil."

One additional factor in the AM's business hours is the military obsession with round the clock sentry duty. Some AM will inevitiably wind up on off-cycle duty shifts.

The WT is basically a "dawn to dusk" operation that doesn't have any real need to work through the night -- although indivual AS (Browns) might have personal projects (studies) that cause them to work round the clock.

[Nazbaque]

The point in this was the Dedicated calling the time of day "morning". Early rising is all it takes to limit it to 11 am perhaps even 10 am. And since AS don't work over night unless they choose to their morning doesn't start until 5 or 6 am. This results in morning reports at 7 or 8 am, which leaves a maximum of 4 hours for Tarna to go through the motions with Elaida, who would likely keep her for at least an hour if for nothing else than shouting at her. Then there is the Gliding from the top to the Red ajah quarters and later from there to the stables at least an hour together no matter where the quarters are in the Tower. In between those glides is getting the reqruits and getting them ready which would have to be half an hour for choosing, convincing and explaining to them and another half an hour for dressing. Leaving them a maximum of one hour for getting the horses ready, riding slowly to the Grove preferably in two different groups to avoid suspicion and then at a normal speed from the gateway to the BT gate. Streaching it as far as it goes it would still be just within the time limit. That streach however requires an astounding number of coincidences and sense there are no ta'veren in the neighbourhood it's as unlikely as a pencil surviving under the foot of an elephant.

[4Alethinos]

Those who are disagreeing with WH tend to forget the military background of RJ.

He knows about morning reports, et al.

I agree with WH that the WT operates on a pre-lightbulb environment and that they use the OP sparingly for night time lights.

"Got a light?" Starcraft Marine :lol

[Nazbaque]

So what is your point 4A?