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Terez
11-08-2009, 11:34 PM
I got tired of waiting for the Encyclopaedia to update, so I made a list (http://docs.google.com/View?docID=dcjspjqg_597fwb27gd9&revision=_latest) for my own reference:

Known Members:
* Alviarin Freidhen (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/a/alviarin.html) (White Ajah)
* Amico Nagoyin (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/a/amico_nagoyin.html) (Yellow Ajah, deceased TSR,Ch12)∆
* Asne Zeramene (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/a/asne_zeramene.html) (Green Ajah, deceased KoD,Ch33)∆
* Atuan Larisett (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/a/atuan.html) (Yellow Ajah)˚
* Berylla Naron (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/b/berylla_naron.html) (Blue Ajah)∆
* Birlen Pena (unknown Ajah)†
* Careane Fransi (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/c/careane_fransi.html) (Green Ajah, deceased KoD,Ch31)
* Chai Rugan (unknown Ajah)†
* Chesmal Emry (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/c/chesmal_emry.html) (Yellow Ajah)∆
* Dagdara Finchey (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/d/dagdara_finchey.html) (Yellow Ajah)†
* Delana Mosalaine (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/d/delana_mosalaine.html) (Gray Ajah)
* Duhara Basaheen (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/d/duhara.html) (Red Ajah)†
* Eldrith Jhondar (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/e/eldrith_jhondar.html) (Brown Ajah)∆
* Elza Penfell (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/e/elza_penfell.html) (Green Ajah)
* Evanellein (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/e/evanellein.html) (Gray Ajah, not on Verin's list but presumed Black for fleeing the Tower after the Seanchan attack with the other known Blacks)†
* Falion Bhoda (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/f/falion.html) (White Ajah)∆
* Fera (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/f/fera.html) (White Ajah)
* Galina Casban (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/g/galina.html) (Red Ajah)˚
* Ispan Shefar (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/i/ispan_shefar.html) (Blue Ajah, deceased TPoD,Ch28)∆
* Jarna Malari (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/j/jarna_malari.html) (Gray Ajah, deceased ACoS,Prologue)
* Jeaine Caide (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/j/jeaine_caide.html) (Green Ajah)∆
* Karale Sanghir (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/k/karale.html) (Gray Ajah)˚
* Joiya Byir (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/j/joiya_byir.html) (Gray Ajah, deceased TSR,Ch12)∆
* Katerine Alruddin (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/k/katerine.html) (Red Ajah)
* Larissa Lyndel (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/l/larissa_lyndel.html) (Yellow Ajah)†
* Liandrin (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/l/liandrin.html) (Red Ajah)∆
* Marillin Gemalphin (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/m/marillin_gemalphin.html) (Brown Ajah)∆
* Marris Thornhill (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/m/marris.html) (Brown Ajah)˚
* Melvara (unknown Ajah)†
* Merean Redhill (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/m/merean.html) (Blue Ajah, deceased NS,Ch26)
* Miyasi (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/m/miyasi.html) (White Ajah)†
* Moria Karentanis (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/m/moria_karentanis.html) (Blue Ajah)†
* Nacelle Kayama (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/n/nacelle.html) (Green Ajah)†
* Nalaene Forrell (unknown Ajah, with Rand)†
* Nesita (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/n/nesita.html) (Red Ajah)†
* Rianna Andomeran (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/r/rianna_andomeran.html) (White Ajah)∆
* Sedore Dajenna (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/s/sedore.html) (Yellow Ajah)†
* Sheriam Bayanar (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/s/sheriam.html) (Blue Ajah)†
* Talene Minly (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/t/talene_minly.html) (Green Ajah)˚
* Temaile Kinderode (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/t/temaile.html) (Gray Ajah)˚∆
* Velina Behar (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/uz/velina.html) (White Ajah)†
* Verin Mathwin (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/uz/verin.html) (whose soul was Brown, exposed ~200 Blacks)†
* Zanica (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/uz/zanica.html) (unknown Ajah)†


†unknown to readers until exposed by Verin (12)
˚uncovered by the Black Ajah Hunters
∆ Liandrin's 13

Proportions from Verin's list:
Red: 48
Green: 38
Gray: 30
Brown: 28
Blue: 21
Yellow: 21
White: 17

Jonai
11-09-2009, 02:41 AM
nifty list dawg

Terez
11-09-2009, 02:47 AM
One thing that I found interesting is that, for the most part, Egwene only gave last names for those whose last names were known prior. BS only bothered to make up one new last name (Nacelle Kayama), and the ones that are not linked are of course new names. I wonder why he did it that way - it seems strange.

Jonai
11-09-2009, 02:51 AM
Well, he did say somewhere that he was unsatisfied with his ability to make up true WoT-centric names for TGS, and that he wanted to improve upon that in ToM, so maybe he didn't want to give even Black Ajah Sleete syndrome.

Terez
11-09-2009, 02:56 AM
What's wrong with Sleete? lol....that's an awesome name.

Jonai
11-09-2009, 03:02 AM
baby you were lying about being broke, cuz you must be high, sleete is awful lmao.

Terez
11-09-2009, 03:03 AM
Nope, dreadfully sober. Sleete is the best name in the whole book.

Just for you, here's an example of literary FAIL:

p. 264


A flash of red cloth, like the blood of a dead rabbit in the snow.... Why, oh why, did Harriet let that one fly?

Jonai
11-09-2009, 03:23 AM
you're right, that is worse than sleete. If you ask me (not that anyone did) half the book fell through the cracks. Especially the cursing.

Terez
11-09-2009, 03:25 AM
Half the book? LOL! I'd say about 10%. The rest was AWESOME.

GonzoTheGreat
11-09-2009, 05:45 AM
Verin wasn't black. She just faked it, and then faked her death. She used the confusion of the Seancan attack (which she'd foreseen, of course) to escape.

Jokeslayer
11-09-2009, 05:51 AM
Why, oh why, did Harriet let that one fly?


It could be something to do with describing unpleasant people via unpleasant imagery.

Terez
11-09-2009, 06:01 AM
It could be something to do with describing unpleasant people via unpleasant imagery.
Maybe...but the imagery wasn't so much unpleasant as it was ridiculous, lol...

And Gonzo, she was Black. I did note that her soul was Brown, thankyouverymuch.

GonzoTheGreat
11-09-2009, 06:06 AM
Her soul is actually Blue; just like Moiraine she has given her entire existence to the cause of helping the DR defeat the DO. Claiming that her soul was Brown is merely another succesful subterfuge.

Kurtz
11-09-2009, 07:27 AM
Her soul is actually Blue; just like Moiraine she has given her entire existence to the cause of helping the DR defeat the DO. Claiming that her soul was Brown is merely another succesful subterfuge.

So did Verin send the Dragkhar after Moiraine in tGH then?

GonzoTheGreat
11-09-2009, 07:33 AM
So did Verin send the Dragkhar after Moiraine in tGH then?Now that's an interesting possibility.
Could be. Could very well be.

Kurtz
11-09-2009, 07:35 AM
Now that's an interesting possibility.
Could be. Could very well be.

Then presumed Moiraine dead so her lie about being sent would never be found out.

FelixPax
11-09-2009, 09:30 PM
Her soul is actually Blue; just like Moiraine she has given her entire existence to the cause of helping the DR defeat the DO. Claiming that her soul was Brown is merely another succesful subterfuge.

Still since Egwene is the one to be writing the history of what Verin Sedai was in her last hour of life:

"But your soul is not Brown. I can see it."
Her eyes fluttered open, meeting Egwene's, a frown creasing her forehead.
"Your soul is of a pure white, Verin," Egwene's said softly. "Like the Light itself."


So did Verin send the Dragkhar after Moiraine in tGH then?

Unfortunately, I think that might be the real case or at the least Verin knew that Liandrin's was heading off to kill Moiraine with a warded Dragkhar. Otherwise, I doubt Verin Sedai would of said Moiraine send her to join Ingtar and three boys, when we know that surely was not the case.

Verin very rarely took big open risks, I doubt Verin expected to see Moiraine alive around Falme and the Mountains of Mists (tGH book Chapter "What Was Meant to Be"). We never saw that reunion of Verin and Moiraine on scene, in the Mountains of Mist though we know it did occurred.

FelixPax
11-09-2009, 10:30 PM
I got tired of waiting for the Encyclopaedia to update, so I made a list (http://docs.google.com/View?docID=dcjspjqg_597fwb27gd9&revision=_latest) for my own reference:


Terez, is their a list of "likely" Black Ajah out there in existence??? For example these particular Aes Sedai being Black Ajah:

Danelle (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/d/danelle.html), a Brown Sitter likely missing now?
Narenwin Barda (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/n/narenwin_barda.html), Yellow Ajah Eyes & Ears and seemingly friends of Katerine's in tGS Book.
Annoura Larisen (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/a/annoura_larisen.html), Gray Ajah advisor to Berelain, who Perrin thought acted like Verin Sedai in Cairhien.
Javindhra Doraille (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/characters/j/javindra.html), Red Ajah Sitter, who likely betrayed Tarna & Pevara to Taim's Darkfriends within the Black Tower.

jana
11-09-2009, 10:37 PM
I picture Verin's soul as a bruised color. I mixed white, brown, and black in my head and that's what I came up with.


(my soul is mauve)

Marie Curie 7
11-28-2009, 01:40 PM
Okay, I dredged this thread up because this post fits nicely here with Terez's updated list of Black Ajah members.

Based on Verin's list of Black Ajah members and the numbers that she obtained, we can make some estimates about the proportion of Black Ajah members overall, and also the proportion in the Tower, with the rebels, and elsewhere. These estimates will be based on 900 total Aes Sedai, since quotes from the books seem to place the number somewhere between 900 and 1000 total sisters.


-- Overall Black Ajah Totals --

Verin's notes indicated that she found about 200 total Aes Sedai in the Black Ajah, more specifically 203, or overall about 203/900 = 23% of all Aes Sedai.

The 900 sisters can be divided into loyalists, rebels, and "unaligned" sisters. After the split, roughly 1/3 of all Aes Sedai were associated with the rebels, 1/3 with the loyalists, and 1/3 were "unaligned" (see below for a description of which sisters are counted among the "unaligned").

As will be outlined below, the percentage of Blacks among the various factions may be estimated as follows:

Blacks among rebels - 70/300 = 23%

Blacks in Tower, after large expeditions - 60/200 = 30%
Blacks in Tower, before large expeditions - 69/300 = 23%

Blacks among "unaligned" sisters - 64/300 = 21%

Another important point to make here is that since 60 Blacks escaped from the Tower and 20 from the rebels, along with the 60 or so in the "unaligned" contingent, that means there are still around 130-140 members of the Black Ajah running around, although it is possible that some of those in the unaligned group may have been captured by the Seanchan. I did deduct a few from the total number of Blacks still around to account for losses of some of Liandrin's 13, Galina (not dead, but likely out of commission), Elza, etc.


-- Among the Rebels --

From Elayne, we know that there were roughly 300 sisters with the rebels in Salidar (and about the same number in the Tower):

TITLE: Lord of Chaos
CHAPTER: 7 - A Matter of Thought

A sliver of cold slid down Elayne's backbone, and nothing to do with whether Elaida was fearful or engaged. Two hundred ninety four Aes Sedai in the Tower, supporting Elaida. Nearly one-third of all Aes Sedai, almost as many as had gathered in Salidar. It might be that the best that could be expected was for the rest to split down the middle as well. After a great rush in the beginning, the numbers coming into Salidar had slowed to a trickle. Perhaps the flow to the Tower had dwindled as well. It could be hoped.

Among the rebels, there were ~ 70 Black Ajah members (50 were executed and 20 escaped). The percentage of Black among the rebels was therefore about 70/300 = 23%.


-- Within the Tower --

There are two sets of estimates that can be made regarding the Black Ajah population in the Tower: before and after the two large expeditions to capture Rand and to the Black Tower. To begin, we can consider the current state of the Tower at the beginning of TGS.

1.) State of Tower after large expeditions
Prior to the Seanchan attack and the reunification of the Tower, it was known that there were fewer than 200 sisters remaining in the Tower (from Pevara):

TITLE: Knife of Dreams
CHAPTER: PROLOGUE - Embers Falling on Dry Grass

She could not be sure, but she thought fewer than two hundred sisters remained in the Tower, most keeping to their Ajah quarters except for necessity, so she really did not expect to see another sister strolling. When Adelorna Bastine glided up the short stairs from a crossing corridor almost right in front of her, she was so surprised she gave a start.

This number is fewer than the original 1/3 split because large numbers of sisters were sent on the expeditions to capture Rand (39) and to the Black Tower (51). Adding those numbers back in, plus a few sent as emissaries leads to the expected total of around 300 sisters in the Tower after the split.

So, before the Seanchan attack, with only about 200 sisters in the Tower, there were 60 Black sisters among them, or a whopping 30% Black.

2.) State of Tower before large expeditions
Part of the reason for the high percentage of Blacks in the Tower after the large expeditions was because Alviarin ensured that no Black sisters were among the 51 sent to the Black Tower. Obviously, there were some Blacks among the 39 sent to capture Rand, including Galina, Katerine, Elza, and Fera, but we do not have exact numbers. A few of the sisters sent to capture Rand were killed and a few escaped and made their way back to the Tower (for example, Covarla and Katerine). If we assume a similar proportion of Blacks among the sisters in the embassy to capture Rand as there is overall, then there should have been around 9 Black sisters out of the 39 total in the expedition.

Including the 51 sisters from the expedition to the Black Tower, along with the 39 in the group sent to capture Rand (90 total), and adding those values to the 200 sisters in the Tower after the expeditions gives a total of about 290 in the Tower around the time of the split (call it 300 to make the proportions 1/3 in all factions). Counting the 60 Blacks known to be in the Tower at the time of the Seanchan attack, and adding in about 9 Blacks as an estimate of those in the expedition to capture Rand, there were roughly 69 Blacks in the Tower after the split, or a percentage of 69/300 = 23%, in line with the overall proportion of Blacks.


-- Elsewhere - Unaligned or Not Yet Accounted For --

There were about 1/3 of all Aes Sedai, or roughly 300 sisters, not associated with the Tower loyalists or the rebels at the time of the split. Some of these sisters might truly be considered unaligned with either the loyalists or rebels, including Cadsuane and the sisters affiliated with her. Other sisters in this category include those not in the Tower at the time of the split for whatever reason: Aes Sedai advisors and other sisters with nobility (the 13 sisters with the Borderlanders, for example), Black Ajah members that had already been sent out on tasks (the remaining members of Liandrin's 13, for example), other sisters milling about the countryside (the Reds seen around Caemlyn and those at the Silver Swan), and any sisters captured by the Seanchan. This group does not include those sisters who were originally in the expedition to capture Rand and now have sworn fealty to him - those sisters are counted above and are included in the totals for the Tower Aes Sedai.

Of the 203 Black Ajah members listed by Verin, we have already accounted for 70 among the rebels, 60 in the Tower at the time of the Seanchan attack, plus another 9 or so estimated to be with the expedition to capture Rand, or roughly 139 Blacks. That leaves 64 Blacks among the "unaligned" sisters. Assuming 1/3 of all Aes Sedai to be in the "unaligned" group, this works out to a percentage of 64/300 = 21%, slightly lower than the overall Black percentage.



-- Black Totals by Ajah --

Finally, we can use Verin's numbers to estimate the percentage of Blacks in each Ajah. From the BWB, we know roughly the proportions of sisters in the various Ajahs:

TITLE: BWB
CHAPTER: 24 - The White Tower

While neither the White Tower nor any Ajah has ever made their numbers known, rough approximations of size are possible with respect to the Ajahs. With a membership encompassing nearly one in five of Aes Sedai at the time of writing (an indication of the perceived importance of their primary task), the Red Ajah is certainly the largest. Close behind comes the Green, followed in order by the Gray, the Brown, the Yellow, the Blue, and finally, the White Ajah. It seems that these sizes have remained roughly in the same proportions since the Breaking, with seldom a shift of more than one place in the ranking, but no one can say what effect current events will have.

About 20% of all Aes Sedai are Red Ajah, so for 900 total this corresponds to about 180 Reds. Close behind comes the Green, so let's say about 160. The White is the smallest - a reasonable estimate might be 70 sisters in the White. The Blue is next smallest; a reasonable estimate for the Blue might be around 100 total. Then for the Gray, Brown, and Yellow Ajahs, the estimate is that they are roughly similar in size but given in decreasing order: 140, 130, and 120 sisters rounds out the totals. Using those estimates, we get the following overall Ajah population estimates (based on 900 total sisters):

Red - 180
Green - 160
Gray - 140
Brown - 130
Yellow - 120
Blue - 100
White - 70

Verin also gave the number of Black sisters in each Ajah. Notice that these numbers follow in order of the size of the Ajahs:

Red - 48
Green - 38
Gray - 30
Brown - 28
Yellow - 21
Blue - 21
White - 17

Using these numbers along with the estimates of sisters in each Ajah, we can roughly determine the percentage of Blacks in each Ajah.

Red - 48/180 = 27%
Green - 38/160 = 24%
Gray - 30/140 = 21%
Brown - 28/130 = 22%
Yellow - 21/120 = 18%
Blue - 21/100 = 21%
White - 17/70 = 24%

Some of the variations in percentages among the Ajahs other than the Red Ajah are perhaps due to my crude estimates of the other Ajah populations since we really only know the population of the Red Ajah with any certainty.

What the data does show, though, is that the percentage of Black sisters in the Red Ajah is indeed higher than that of any of the other Ajahs. Comparing the Red Ajah to all the other Ajahs, we have 48/180 = 27% Blacks in the Red. That leaves 720 sisters total in the other Ajahs (out of 900). Verin's totals included 155 Blacks in the other Ajahs, or a percentage of 155/720 = 22% Black sisters in the non-Red Ajahs.

Yuri33
11-28-2009, 04:14 PM
Nice summary, Marie.

What the data does show, though, is that the percentage of Black sisters in the Red Ajah is indeed higher than that of any of the other Ajahs. Comparing the Red Ajah to all the other Ajahs, we have 48/180 = 27% Blacks in the Red. That leaves 720 sisters total in the other Ajahs (out of 900). Verin's totals included 165 Blacks in the other Ajahs, or a percentage of 165/720 = 23% Black sisters in the non-Red Ajahs.

Thank you, Galina Casban...

that means there are still around 130-140 members of the Black Ajah running around,

Minus some additional losses from attrition and individuals we've read about (Elza, etc.), that's probably going to end up in line with the number of Asha'men in Taim's "special" classes. So we can look forward to roughly 250-270 dreadlords (from the AS and AM, at least).

greatwolf
11-29-2009, 04:02 AM
Assuming a third of all channelers are DFs? That means we'll have quite a few among the WOs. But maybe not in seanchan considering Suroth's(Elbar's) lack of success in that regard. So maybe different factors at play.

Of course the generalization could be extend to all of RL. Maybe a third of RLers are DFs? And maybe a third of the great captains = one and a half. So Niall's the half :D who is the other DF?

GonzoTheGreat
11-29-2009, 04:12 AM
Note: there's a miscalculation in Marie Curie's post. (Perhaps more than one, but I only noticed one. It took me a while to figure even that one out, since I first started busily calculating the wrong things.)

She gives a total of 180 Reds, of whom 48 are BA. That is out of a total of 900 AS, of whom 203 are BA. This means that there are 720 non-Reds (as she says) of whom 155 are BA (she has 165).
This means that amongst the non-Reds, 22% are BA.

Davian93
11-29-2009, 11:31 AM
Assuming a third of all channelers are DFs? That means we'll have quite a few among the WOs. But maybe not in seanchan considering Suroth's(Elbar's) lack of success in that regard. So maybe different factors at play.



I think that's a very dangerous assumption to make. I think the Aiel and Seanchan in general are far more difficult cultures for the Shadow to infiltrate than Aes Sedai (who hunger for power even if they aren't BA). Besides, its seems that Ishy focused on corrupting the Tower and Randland proper as he knew that that was the location and focus of the Last Battle.

GonzoTheGreat
11-29-2009, 11:47 AM
The Tower has for a long time only addmitted those who came there to become AS. That will have resulted in a relatively high number of power hungry volunteers, I would expect.

Then there's the fact that the "one third" estimate seems rather high. When it comes to AS, I think that 20% is more accurate. Based on the way in which AS assume that anyone who leaves at the end of her life is dead, while many are still alive for years or decades (like Adelaes, Cadsuane and Vandene), there are probably at least a hundred others around. That takes the total up to about a thousand, and I doubt Verin missed many BA amongst those.

Davian93
11-29-2009, 12:01 PM
The Tower has for a long time only addmitted those who came there to become AS. That will have resulted in a relatively high number of power hungry volunteers, I would expect.

Then there's the fact that the "one third" estimate seems rather high. When it comes to AS, I think that 20% is more accurate. Based on the way in which AS assume that anyone who leaves at the end of her life is dead, while many are still alive for years or decades (like Adelaes, Cadsuane and Vandene), there are probably at least a hundred others around. That takes the total up to about a thousand, and I doubt Verin missed many BA amongst those.

I would suspect you are right and that Caddy's "party" will show us this in the next book...it almost appears as if she has developed a shadow (excuse the pun) Tower among retired and unaligned AS.

Weird Harold
11-29-2009, 01:21 PM
Assuming a third of all channelers are DFs?

That would be a really silly assumption, given that the only data on proportions of DF comes from Verin's BA list and that is less than one quarter of all Aes Sedai -- ~~23%

I think Gonzo has a good point about the White Tower having a higher percentage of ambitious power seekers prone to turning to the Shadow for advancment -- a la Sheriam -- just as the Red Ajah's "mission statement" tends to attract man-haters and moral fanatics.

The general population average should be lower than the White Tower's proportions, not higher.

I think even Gonzo's one fifth (20%) is probably a bit high for the world-wide population of channelers. The Kin are presented as being free of DFs because the Keystone Koven didn't know about them. I think Elayne's logic is flawed on that point, but I don't believe we've seen any DFs among the Kin to contradict her either. If the Kin are DF free, their membership of 1783 would reduce the percentage of DF channelers in the westlands to 203/2683=0.0756 or 7.6%

That figure is a very shaky estimate because it relies on Elayne being correct about no DFs among the Kin, but I think it is much closer to the actual proportions of DF channelers world-wide.

Kimon
11-29-2009, 01:33 PM
Something has been bothering me about Verin's number of Black sisters from within the Blue Ajah. The problem seems to be due to the fact that I am under the impression that there are far fewer blues than Marie Curie's estimate of approximately 100. The wot encyclopedia lists just 25, three of which are deceased- Merean, Gitara and Eadyth (For that matter, would already dead blacks, like Merean, have been crossed out on Verin's list?), and the only other firm listing of the number of blue sisters (at least that I can recall) appears in Moiraine and Siuan's induction scene in New Spring (Chapters 11 and 12), via the number of introduction kisses that they received. They receive kisses from the three sitters (Eadyth- dead, Anlee- dead?, and Lelaine), then the newest sisters (Leane and Rafela), then from Aeldra (Tamra's Keeper). Moiraine notes that they received the welcome kiss 39 more times after reaching the Blue Ajah Quarters, and after that mentions but other Blue, Siuan's soon-to-be employer, the Blue spymaster, Cetalia. That makes 46, 48 once you include Moiraine and Siuan, 49 once Sheriam is added. But at least three of those 49 are dead, and even assuming that some dozen or so blues were out of the tower, and that perhaps a half a dozen new blues were raised (I think that 6 in 20 years might honestly be too high an estimate), this still leaves me with the assumption that if 21 are black that this likely accounts for at least one out of every three blues serving the shadow.

Terez
11-29-2009, 01:35 PM
You seem to be forgetting the fact that about half of Aes Sedai are out of the Tower at any given time.

Kimon
11-29-2009, 01:47 PM
Yes but half of every ajah, or approximately half of all aes sedai? the greens, reds, and grays would have good reason to be out and about in the world, though one might expect that with the war against the Aiel ending around Tar Valon at the time of their raising should not most of the blues have been in or near enough to the tower to have been present to give the welcome kisses?

Terez
11-29-2009, 02:15 PM
I don't see why that would be expected. The Blues had just as much reason to be out and about as anyone else at that time.

Weird Harold
11-29-2009, 02:31 PM
Yes but half of every ajah, or approximately half of all aes sedai? the greens, reds, and grays would have good reason to be out and about in the world, though one might expect that with the war against the Aiel ending around Tar Valon at the time of their raising should not most of the blues have been in or near enough to the tower to have been present to give the welcome kisses?
The Blue's "mission statement" -- "To Meddle In World Affairs" -- would suggest that at any given time a smaller percentage of Blues would be in-residence in the Tower, even during the final stages of the Aeil War. I'd say that having "half" of the Blue Ajah available for the kiss of welcome would be an optimistic estimate; a third or quarter would probably be closer to the truth.

I don't have any real problem with the estimate of 100 for the Blue because the percentages are consistent with the overall pattern -- if any Ajah's nimbers are incorrect, I would suspect the Red's because it is so out of line with the overall pattern -- even given Galina's position as Ajah Head.

Kimon
11-29-2009, 02:36 PM
I guess that my assumption here completely rests on the assumption that most of the sisters would have made an effort to return to Tar Valon because of the threat of Aiel, though certainly without traveling many may well have simply been too far away to hope to get back. In Ch 2 ( A Wish Fulfilled) Moiraine says, while she and Siuan were in attendance of Tamra and Gitara, that the Amyrlin and her Keeper "were the only two Aes Sedai actually in the Tower at the moment", implying that the rest (at least of those who had been present) were off offering healing to the wounded soldiers. At the end of Ch 11 Moiraine then states that "every Blue sister currently in Tar Valon was lining the main corridor". So the healers were back within the Tower, though certainly that would leave the possibility that many blues would still be out and about, either trying to help the grays hold together the coalition, or perhaps wandering about on random adventures like the greens, though (since Tamra hadyet to be murdered), presumably not yet (like Merean) helping the naive reds murder every man that they thought might be the dragon reborn...

Kurtz
11-29-2009, 03:16 PM
A task for someone on their next reread - count the number of Aes Sedai dead! Seems every reported incident ends with 'two/three/twelve Sisters dead'.

Could be up to a tenth of the Tower's numbers dead :eek:

It's never commented on in the books.

Also I think Evanellein is probably not a Darkfriend. Only reason she would be is to prove that Verin didn't get everyone, but pretty much did.

Reckon their could be some twist with her character.

I may make a Faction.

'Something may happen with Evanellien's character. Or not'

Terez
11-29-2009, 03:20 PM
Most of us suspected Evanellein was Black already, simply because Yukiri mentioned that she had been speaking for pulling down Elaida in Knife of Dreams. Was too much to hope for that she simply had some sense, so a lot of us figured that Alviarin put out orders for Elaida to be brought down if possible, or to spread dissension against Elaida. It would have been the logical thing for someone in Alviarin's position to do. :)

Kurtz
11-29-2009, 03:24 PM
Most of us suspected Evanellein was Black already, simply because Yukiri mentioned that she had been speaking for pulling down Elaida in Knife of Dreams. Was too much to hope for that she simply had some sense, so a lot of us figured that Alviarin put out orders for Elaida to be brought down if possible, or to spread dissension against Elaida. It would have been the logical thing for someone in Alviarin's position to do. :)

Ah, didn't know that. Foreshadowing :mad:

I still think though, that when everyone (in the book) is presuming that Eva is Black, it means she isn't :cool:

Logic of a White, I have.

Kurtz
11-29-2009, 03:40 PM
Also did anyone else bleed a little finding out Nacelle was BA? Thought she might be able to help Lan/Nynaeve in the future.

What reason for her being shown the weave to see saidin though? Aran'gar certainly wouldn't have wanted it, so did another Forsaken teach it (or is it 'new technology', again I have a shit memory). Otherwise why would she share it?

Also might she have had a hand in the fall of Malkier/failure of the Tower?

Marie Curie 7
11-29-2009, 06:01 PM
Note: there's a miscalculation in Marie Curie's post. (Perhaps more than one, but I only noticed one. It took me a while to figure even that one out, since I first started busily calculating the wrong things.)

She gives a total of 180 Reds, of whom 48 are BA. That is out of a total of 900 AS, of whom 203 are BA. This means that there are 720 non-Reds (as she says) of whom 155 are BA (she has 165).
This means that amongst the non-Reds, 22% are BA.

Yes, thanks. It definitely should be 155 non-Red Blacks, not 165. Apparently I am not so good at subtraction. I've fixed it in my original post now.

Then there's the fact that the "one third" estimate seems rather high. When it comes to AS, I think that 20% is more accurate. Based on the way in which AS assume that anyone who leaves at the end of her life is dead, while many are still alive for years or decades (like Adelaes, Cadsuane and Vandene), there are probably at least a hundred others around. That takes the total up to about a thousand, and I doubt Verin missed many BA amongst those.

Well, Verin's numbers give 23% of all Aes Sedai as Black, assuming 900 Aes Sedai total. If you want to count from 1000 total, then sure, the percentage of Blacks will be 20% among all Aes Sedai. It doesn't really make much difference in the overall analysis.

Marie Curie 7
11-29-2009, 06:10 PM
Something has been bothering me about Verin's number of Black sisters from within the Blue Ajah. The problem seems to be due to the fact that I am under the impression that there are far fewer blues than Marie Curie's estimate of approximately 100. The wot encyclopedia lists just 25, three of which are deceased- Merean, Gitara and Eadyth (For that matter, would already dead blacks, like Merean, have been crossed out on Verin's list?), and the only other firm listing of the number of blue sisters (at least that I can recall) appears in Moiraine and Siuan's induction scene in New Spring (Chapters 11 and 12), via the number of introduction kisses that they received. They receive kisses from the three sitters (Eadyth- dead, Anlee- dead?, and Lelaine), then the newest sisters (Leane and Rafela), then from Aeldra (Tamra's Keeper). Moiraine notes that they received the welcome kiss 39 more times after reaching the Blue Ajah Quarters, and after that mentions but other Blue, Siuan's soon-to-be employer, the Blue spymaster, Cetalia. That makes 46, 48 once you include Moiraine and Siuan, 49 once Sheriam is added. But at least three of those 49 are dead, and even assuming that some dozen or so blues were out of the tower, and that perhaps a half a dozen new blues were raised (I think that 6 in 20 years might honestly be too high an estimate), this still leaves me with the assumption that if 21 are black that this likely accounts for at least one out of every three blues serving the shadow.

Eadyth and Anlee may or may not be dead - they may just be retired. They were both Sitters in New Spring, with white/graying hair, and Eadyth was also First Selector at the time. There has been no mention of them since New Spring, so there is no definitive evidence as to whether or not they're still alive - it certainly is possible that they're dead given their apparent advanced ages during New Spring, but we just don't know.

With respect to the number of Blues, as has been mentioned, Blues are "Followers after Causes", so it is likely that a significant proportion of Blues are out of the Tower at any given time. My estimate of 100 Blues comes from more than just that, though. We know that the Blue is the second smallest Ajah after the White. In Knife of Dreams, we learned that there were only about 20 Whites left in the Tower:

TITLE: Knife of Dreams
CHAPTER: Prologue - Embers Falling on Dry Grass

The White was the smallest of the Ajahs, and barely more than twenty of its sisters were in the Tower at present, yet it seemed that nearly all of them were out in the main hallway. The walk along the plain white floor tiles seemed like running a gauntlet.

This is after the large expeditions to capture Rand and to the Black Tower. There was only one White sent to the Black Tower, but there were 12 Whites in the expedition to capture Rand. Thus, after the split we can estimate that there were around 33 Whites in the Tower.

Among the rebels, we know of nine Whites by name: the three rebel Sitters (Aledra, Berana, and Saroiya), as well as Bernaille, Brendas, Carlinya, Shana, Valinde, and Zerah). Bernaille and Zerah were ferrets, though, so they probably got counted among the 20 or so in the White Tower in KoD. That leaves seven additional Whites that we know for sure among the rebels, for a total of 40 Whites overall so far.

We also know of a few Whites among the "unaligned" group. There were two Whites in Liandrin's 13 (Falion and Rianna), plus Daigian with Cadsuane's crew. That's three more, giving the minimum number of Whites that must be in the Ajah as 43.

If we were simply to use the bare minimum 43 as the total number of Whites in the Ajah, then since the Blue is the next smallest, we might consider using around 50 as the total number of Blues. However, it doesn't work out so well to do this. The reason is that we know that roughly 20% of all sisters are Red, which sets the number to be 180 in the Red (based on 900 total sisters). This leaves 720 sisters in the other Ajahs. The Green is close behind the Red in numbers, so my estimate is 160 for the Green Ajah, which brings the remaining number of sisters down to 560. Subtracting 43 for the minimum number of Whites and 50 for the Blue gives 467 sisters remaining, to be divided among the Gray, Brown, and Yellow Ajahs, or 467/3 = 156 sisters per Ajah on average for the Gray, Brown, and Yellow Ajahs.

If we accept that the Red and Green are set apart somewhat as the two largest Ajahs, then 156 sisters per Ajah for the Gray, Brown, and Yellow seems a little too high if those Ajahs are supposed to be smaller than the Red and Green by enough that the Red and Green stand out a bit. Thus, we almost have to end up distributing more sisters than the bare minimum numbers into the White and Blue Ajahs in order to make the Ajah populations better fit the given description of Ajah sizes.

My choice was to set the White and Blue Ajah numbers in the following way. For the Whites: based on ~33 sisters in the Tower after the split, I tacked on a couple additional Whites in the Tower (~35), added several additional Whites to the known Salidar numbers (~18), and included others that were presumably among the unaligned group (~17). In other words, after the split, I crudely estimated 50% of all Whites in the Tower, 25% with the rebels, and 25% unaligned, for 70 total. There could be more or less among the rebels and unaligned groups, but I knew that I needed more than just the minimum 43 among the White. I considered a range of 60-70 total and settled on 70 due to the issue of wanting to set apart the Red and Green just a bit. If I had assumed a 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 split of the Whites, that would have yielded around 100 Whites, which seems too high - for one reason, because I imagine Alviarin might have tried to keep more Whites in the Tower during the split.

With an estimate of 70 sisters in the White, and since the Blue Ajah is the next smallest, I considered a total of around 90-100 for the Blue Ajah and settled on 100, which is a bit higher than twice the number of Blues in the Tower at the time of New Spring, accounting for the notion that a little more than half the Blues would be out and about following after Causes.

This sort of analysis leads the estimates that I presented in my original post:

Red - 180
Green - 160
Gray - 140
Brown - 130
Yellow - 120
Blue - 100
White - 70

Here, the Reds and Greens are set slightly apart, larger than the other Ajahs. The Gray, Brown, and Yellow are roughly similar and average about 130 sisters per Ajah, but I distributed a little more to the Gray and a little less to the Yellow to represent the decreasing size of the Ajahs. The White Ajah is significantly smaller than the others, and the Blue is next smallest. Obviously, these are just estimates, and you can play around more with the numbers; however, I think that the values above give a pretty decent estimate of the Ajah sizes.

I did consider setting the Green Ajah a little higher to 170 and decreasing the Blue to 90, but I don't think there is anything to allow us to really decide one way or another. So, if you like the totals of 170 in the Green and 90 in the Blue better, that would probably work, too.

I don't have any real problem with the estimate of 100 for the Blue because the percentages are consistent with the overall pattern -- if any Ajah's nimbers are incorrect, I would suspect the Red's because it is so out of line with the overall pattern -- even given Galina's position as Ajah Head.

But the number of Reds is the one number that we probably know the best - the Reds are roughly one in five of all Aes Sedai. :confused:

Weird Harold
11-29-2009, 07:05 PM
I don't have any real problem with the estimate of 100 for the Blue because the percentages are consistent with the overall pattern -- if any Ajah's numbers are incorrect, I would suspect the Red's because it is so out of line with the overall pattern -- even given Galina's position as Ajah Head.

But the number of Reds is the one number that we probably know the best - the Reds are roughly one in five of all Aes Sedai. :confused:

I did say 'IF' :D

I believe there is an RJ quote that says specifically that a Red is no more likely to be BA than any other Ajah, but I don't dispute your analysis at all. If I did I would argue that the percentage of RBA is too high and thus the Red's membership number is too low.

Marie Curie 7
11-30-2009, 10:57 PM
There is something that has been bothering me about the Black Ajah members in the Tower. We know that the Black Ajah hunters first uncovered Talene as Black. Talene then revealed that Galina and Temaille were also Black (the members of her heart), but both of them were out of the Tower. Talene also revealed her "one other", Atuan. The hunters then captured and broke Atuan. And then Atuan gave up the members of her heart, Marris and Karale. So, Talene, Atuan, Marris, and Karale were uncovered by the Black Ajah hunters in the Tower. Each "one other" of Atuan, Marris, and Karale was found to be out of the Tower.

At any rate, when Egwene was given information from the Black Ajah hunters/ferrets, it seems that only Talene was ever mentioned:

TITLE: Gathering Storm
CHAPTER: 39 - A Visit from Verin Sedai

There were Black sisters among the rebel Aes Sedai and those of the White Tower, and even some among those unaligned who had been away from the Tower during the split. Other than Sheriam, the most disturbing discovery on the list were the sisters who were Sitters in either the Tower or among the rebels. Duhara Basaheen. Velina Behar. Sedore Da-jenna. Delana Mosalaine, of course, and Talene Minly as well. Meidani had admitted to Egwene in confidence that Talene was the member of the Black Ajah that Saerin and the others had discovered, but she had fled the Tower.

Okay, so the lack of mention might just be explained away as an oversight, but it seems like Atuan, Marris, and Karale were forgotten in TGS. Also, when Egwene thought of the Blacks in the Tower that were executed, she thought only of those that were too weak to Travel:

TITLE: Gathering Storm
CHAPTER: Epilogue - Bathed in Light

She smiled faintly, scanning the next of Silviana's reports. Then she frowned. Most of the Black Ajah in the Tower had escaped. This report, written in Silviana's careful, flowing script, told that they had managed to seize some of the Blacks in the hours following Egwene's raising, but only the weakest of the lot. The majority of them - some sixty Black sisters - had escaped. Including one Sitter, as Egwene had noticed before, whose name had not been on Verin's list. Evanellein's disappearance indicated strongly that she was Black.

Now again, the lack of mention of the Blacks uncovered by the Black Ajah hunters might be explained away in this statement by the fact that the ones already held by the hunters didn't have to be "seized". But again, it sort of seems like the other ones uncovered by the hunters were totally forgotten in TGS. Why weren't Atuan, Marris, and Karale ever mentioned?

In addition, the whole Talene scenario seems kind of odd to me. We know that it was stated in the quote above that Talene had fled the Tower. We also know that she was seen leaving the Tower in Knife of Dreams:

TITLE: Knife of Dreams
CHAPTER: Prologue - Embers Fall on Dry Grass

The message, once she worked it out, bending to write on another sheet, was much as she had expected since the previous night when Talene failed to appear. The woman had left the Green quarters early yesterday carrying fat saddlebags and a small chest. Not having a servant carry them; she had performed the task herself. No one seemed to know where she had gone. The question was, had she panicked on receiving her summons to the Supreme Council, or was there something more? Something more, Alviarin decided. Talene had looked to Yukiri and Doesine as though seeking…guidance, perhaps. She was sure she had not imagined it.

Why would the Black Ajah hunters allow Talene to leave? Talene begged the hunters to hide her after she was ordered to appear before the Supreme Council:

TITLE: Knife of Dreams
CHAPTER: Prologue - Embers Fall on Dry Grass

"Last night, Talene received an order to appear tonight before their 'Supreme Council.'" Her mouth twisted around the words in distaste. "It seems that happens only if you're being honored or given a very, very important assignment. Or if you're to be put to the question." Her lips almost writhed. What they had learned about the Black Ajah's means of putting someone to the question was as nauseating as it was incredible.

Forcing a woman into a circle against her will? Guiding a circle to inflict pain? Pevara felt her stomach writhing.

"Talene doesn't think she's to be honored or given an assignment," Yukiri went on, "so she begged to be hidden away. Saerin put her in a room in the lowest basement. Talene may be wrong, but I agree with Saerin. Risking it would be letting a dog into the chicken yard and hoping for the best."

So... is this another one of the ways in which the Black Ajah hunters were not particularly precise in formulating a fourth Oath, this time for one of the members of the Black Ajah? Otherwise, if they wanted to keep Talene hidden in the basement and they ordered her to remain there, she shouldn't have been able to leave. It didn't appear that Meidani was able to flee, though, so why should Talene have been able to? In fact, because of the extra Oath that they made Talene take, I always assumed that the bit about her being seen leaving the Tower was just a ploy to throw the Black Ajah off her trail and she later snuck back into the basement to be hidden.

GonzoTheGreat
12-01-2009, 04:37 AM
Did she leave, or did she pretend to leave so that the BA would be searching for her outside the WT, while she was sitting in its dungeons, dining on water and bread?

Kimon
12-01-2009, 06:09 PM
I suppose she (Talene...and perhaps the others broken by the hunters) might have escaped for true during the confusion created by the Seanchan sortie. This might well help to explain why so many of the blacks in the Tower were successful in evading the purge, and if nothing else, it shows that Egwene was right in her decision to kill all those that they had uncovered amongst the rebels rather than holding them for interrogation.

Kimon
12-01-2009, 06:18 PM
nevermind...i'm forgetting about Saerin's census.

the silent speaker
12-01-2009, 11:55 PM
Meiani meant that Talene was the member of the Black the hunters had caught who was also a Sitter in the Hall. The context was Egwene running down the list of Black Sitters. I dunno how much Meidani would have known about where Talene really was (if the Shadow didn't have her quietly dismembered offscreen, which it is well capable of); she has no need-to-know.

Marie Curie 7
12-03-2009, 12:11 AM
Meiani meant that Talene was the member of the Black the hunters had caught who was also a Sitter in the Hall. The context was Egwene running down the list of Black Sitters.

I understand the context of that statement about Talene as a Sitter quite well, thank you. However, even given the context, the thoughts of Egwene about what Meidani told her don't work:

TITLE: Gathering Storm
CHAPTER: 39 - A Visit from Verin Sedai

Meidani had admitted to Egwene in confidence that Talene was the member of the Black Ajah that Saerin and the others had discovered, but she had fled the Tower.

Egwene thinks that Talene is THE member of the Black Ajah uncovered by the others. But that is obviously not correct.

Furthermore, Egwene doesn't think that Talene is ONE of the members of the Black Ajah that was uncovered, nor does she think that Talene is THE member of the Black Ajah among the Sitters who was uncovered. So, regardless of the context, Egwene's thoughts or the information given to Egwene are still incorrect.

I dunno how much Meidani would have known about where Talene really was (if the Shadow didn't have her quietly dismembered offscreen, which it is well capable of); she has no need-to-know.

Actually, Meidani does have a need to know. Have you forgotten that one of the very reasons that the ferrets were sworn a fourth oath was so that they could assist the Black Ajah hunters with their search?

TITLE: Winter's Heart
CHAPTER: Prologue - Snow

"We might not be entirely alone," Pevara said reluctantly. "Seaine, tell them your little scheme with Zerah and her friends."

"Scheme?" Saerin said. "Who’s Zerah? Seaine? Seaine!"

Seaine gave a start. "What? Oh. Pevara and I uncovered a small nest of rebels here in the Tower," she began breathily. "The sisters sent to spread dissent." Saerin was going to make sure she was safe, was she? Without so much as asking. She was a Sitter herself; she had been Aes Sedai for almost a hundred and fifty years. What right had Saerin or anyone to ….? "Pevara and I have begun putting an end to that. We've already made one of them, Zerah Dacan, take the same extra oath Talene did, and told her to bring Bernaile Gelbarn to my rooms this afternoon without rousing her suspicions." Light, any sister outside this room might be Black. Any sister. "Then we will use those two to bring another, until they have all been made to swear obedience. Of course, we'll ask the same question we put to Zerah, the same we put to Talene." The Black Ajah might already have her name, already know she had been set hunting them. How could Saerin keep her safe? "Those who give the wrong answer can be questioned, and those who give the right can repay for a little of their treachery by hunting the Black under our direction." Light, how?

So you see, Meidani absolutely did have need to know about Talene and the other Blacks that the hunters uncovered. How could they assist in hunting the Black without knowing who had already been uncovered? Sorry, but there is definitely a discrepancy in TGS with regard to any mention of the other Blacks that the hunters had uncovered.

the silent speaker
12-03-2009, 01:07 AM
I'm not saying Meidani didn't know Talene existed, only that she didn't know where she was.

And Marie, you're forgetting that Egwene guessed to Saerin that they had uncovered a Black Sitter. Talene was the member of the Black that they found -- among the Sitters.

Solmancer
12-03-2009, 01:10 AM
I don't think there's any inconsistancy about Talene, to be honest. Earlier in the book, they indirectly mention Talene with respect to Siuan's deposing, implying that Talene was the Black Sitter involved. Meidani merely filled Egwene in on that point.

True, there is a bit of a plot hole regarding the others that the hunters found, but perhaps that will get cleared up more, and perhaps they were among those caught up Egwene cleaning house (ordered to remain?). I have hopes that Sanderson clears up a few points and some dangling characters that were somewhat left by the wayside (Setalle Anan and Beonin to name a couple).

Marie Curie 7
12-19-2009, 11:00 AM
I believe there is an RJ quote that says specifically that a Red is no more likely to be BA than any other Ajah, but I don't dispute your analysis at all. If I did I would argue that the percentage of RBA is too high and thus the Red's membership number is too low.

I can't locate such a quote anywhere, so if anyone knows of it, I would appreciate a link. But from my analysis, I think the numbers bear out that there truly is a slightly higher percentage of Blacks in the Red Ajah than in the other Ajahs, about 27% compared with 23% overall and 22% in the non-Red Ajahs.

Another way to look at this is to start with the numbers of Blacks in each Ajah as reported by Verin:

Red - 48
Green - 38
Gray - 30
Brown - 28
Yellow - 21
Blue - 21
White - 17

Now, if we make an assumption that the percentage of Blacks in each Ajah is the exactly the same, 23%, we can calculate the total number of sisters expected to be in each Ajah:

Red - 209
Green - 165
Gray - 130
Brown - 122
Yellow - 91
Blue - 91
White - 74

TOTAL: 882

Note that since the total number of sisters calculated in this way is 882 and the total number in the Red Ajah is calculated to be 209, this yields the result that 24% of all Aes Sedai would be members of the Red Ajah. This seems to be an overestimate, though, because the BWB states that nearly 1 in 5 of all sisters are in the Red (or slightly less than 20%). In other words, assuming that 48 Blacks in the Red Ajah corresponds to only 23% of the Ajah seems to give an estimate for the number of Reds that is too large compared to the overall total of Aes Sedai computed in this way. The conclusion therefore seems to be that the Red Ajah likely does have a slightly higher percentage of Black members than the overall value of 23%.

Marie Curie 7
12-19-2009, 11:23 AM
I'm not saying Meidani didn't know Talene existed, only that she didn't know where she was.

Okay, but are you then suggesting that the Black Ajah hunters didn't reveal to Meidani where Talene was? Or that they themselves didn't know?

My point with regard to Talene was primarily about whether or not she really fled. As I said before, Talene initially begged the hunters to hide her when she learned that she had been summoned to appear before the Supreme Council. But later she was reported as being seen leaving the Tower. If so, why was she able to leave? Did the hunters allow her to do so? Why would they? Or was she able to get around her extra oath in the same way that Meidani did? Or did Talene actually fake leaving the Tower and was being hidden by the hunters? If so, why wasn't her execution mentioned at the end of TGS?

And Marie, you're forgetting that Egwene guessed to Saerin that they had uncovered a Black Sitter. Talene was the member of the Black that they found -- among the Sitters.

Nope, I haven't forgotten about Egwene guessing that the hunters had found a Black among the Sitters, since that's pretty much what persuaded at least some of them that Elaida's raising as Amyrlin was not lawful. And yeah, Doesine confirmed to Egwene that the hunters had found a Black Sitter, though she didn't reveal Talene's name to Egwene at the time.

As I have been trying to say, regardless of the context, the wording of the statement about Talene just sounds wrong to me:

TITLE: Gathering Storm
CHAPTER: 39 - A Visit from Verin Sedai

Meidani had admitted to Egwene in confidence that Talene was the member of the Black Ajah that Saerin and the others had discovered, but she had fled the Tower.

And it still sounds wrong. In my opinion, it should have said something to the effect that Talene was 'the member of the Black Ajah among the Sitters'. Otherwise, even given the context it still sounds to me as if Saerin and the others had only discovered Talene.

Now, if Atuan and the other Blacks that the hunters captured had been even mentioned at any other point in TGS, I might just excuse the above as a poorly worded comment, or that the 'among the Sitters' was simply meant to be inferred. But the others are not mentioned at all, even though later (in the Epilogue) Egwene goes through an extensive accounting of the Blacks captured and escaped from the Tower. Yet not once are any of the sisters that the Black Ajah hunters uncovered mentioned, except for Talene.

If those Black sisters were still held by their fourth oath to the hunters, they should have been turned over for execution. But Egwene doesn't think of them at all:

TITLE: Gathering Storm
CHAPTER: Epilogue - Bathed in Light

She smiled faintly, scanning the next of Silviana's reports. Then she frowned. Most of the Black Ajah in the Tower had escaped. This report, written in Silviana's careful, flowing script, told that they had managed to seize some of the Blacks in the hours following Egwene's raising, but only the weakest of the lot. The majority of them - some sixty Black sisters - had escaped. Including one Sitter, as Egwene had noticed before, whose name had not been on Verin's list. Evanellein's disappearance indicated strongly that she was Black.

Egwene noted the Blacks that they had managed to capture (only the weakest ones), as well as the Blacks that escaped. But there's not any mention of the Blacks that the hunters should have been able to turn over to Egwene. And it was Saerin, one of the Black Ajah hunters, who took the census of sisters remaining in the Tower, escaped, or captured by the Seanchan:

TITLE: Gathering Storm
CHAPTER: Epilogue - Bathed in Light

That last group was galling. Saerin - acting with foresight - had taken a census following the attack to determine exactly who had been captured.
.
.
.
Each of the Black Ajah members on Verin's list had been seen healthy and alive following the Seanchan attack. But most had escaped before Egwene arrived at the Tower to take her seat. Velina was gone. So were Chai and Birlen. And Alviarin; the Black hunters hadn't managed to get to her in time.

Saerin would certainly have known of the other Blacks that the hunters had uncovered. But again, no mention of Atuan, Marris, or Karale... So why not?

It could be an error and BS just forgot about them.

It could be that they were able to get around the fourth oath in a way similar to what Meidani did and were able to flee the Tower. If so, why was this not mentioned? It's already been made clear that the hunters have realized that the oaths that they gave to the ferrets were not as binding as they thought.

If the Blacks uncovered by the hunters were not able to flee but instead were indeed executed along with the other Blacks, then again I have to question why there was no mention of them. Maybe we'll find out what happened to them in ToM. But the Black Ajah hunt has been building up for some books now, and to just neglect to mention the ultimate outcome of the other Blacks that the hunters found when TGS essentially provided the major resolution of the Great Purge plot line seems very strange. ~shrug~

Marie Curie 7
12-19-2009, 11:28 AM
I don't think there's any inconsistancy about Talene, to be honest. Earlier in the book, they indirectly mention Talene with respect to Siuan's deposing, implying that Talene was the Black Sitter involved. Meidani merely filled Egwene in on that point.

See my previous post. :)

True, there is a bit of a plot hole regarding the others that the hunters found, but perhaps that will get cleared up more, and perhaps they were among those caught up Egwene cleaning house (ordered to remain?). I have hopes that Sanderson clears up a few points and some dangling characters that were somewhat left by the wayside (Setalle Anan and Beonin to name a couple).

But Setalle was mentioned in TGS a couple of times. If you mean that Setalle's plot line has not been resolved, well it's not really clear that there's much of anything to be resolved, unless you believe that burning out will be healed. However, it wasn't like Setalle was with Mat's group in TGS and nobody ever mentioned her presence.

And Beonin was also mentioned several times in TGS. So both of those character references are in sharp contrast to Atuan, Marris, and Karale who, even though the Great Purge essentially was completed in TGS, were never even mentioned a single time. Yeah, it's possible that they will be mentioned in ToM and we'll learn what happened to them, but in my opinion, it's still very odd that there wasn't even a hint of a mention of them in TGS.

Daekyras
12-19-2009, 01:19 PM
There is something that has been bothering me about the Black Ajah members in the Tower. We know that the Black Ajah hunters first uncovered Talene as Black. Talene then revealed that Galina and Temaille were also Black (the members of her heart), but both of them were out of the Tower. Talene also revealed her "one other", Atuan. The hunters then captured and broke Atuan. And then Atuan gave up the members of her heart, Marris and Karale. So, Talene, Atuan, Marris, and Karale were uncovered by the Black Ajah hunters in the Tower. Each "one other" of Atuan, Marris, and Karale was found to be out of the Tower.


I re-read this section after your post marie because i don't remember it ringing any suspicion bells(If i even have those!).

To me it reads like Talene was the one they discovered i.e. the one that they cuaght in a lie. The rest of the blacks on your list were revealed to them or given up as you suggest in your comments.

Maybe i'm just looking for an easy answer though...

Weird Harold
12-19-2009, 02:35 PM
Now, if we make an assumption that the percentage of Blacks in each Ajah is the exactly the same, ...

That would be a silly assumption to make, because there is clearly some variance and one BA more or less in the smaller ajahs would be a half a percentage point difference.

For whatever reason, the Red Ajah's percentage of BA is a "flyer," since the rest are neatly grouped around ~~21% +/- 3 (18-24%)and the Reds are another +3% outside of that range.

Without a preconceived explanation for the Flyer, I would question the assumption(s) that led to the discrepancy. You however have put a lot more thought, effort and calculation into the numbers than I have.

nameless
12-19-2009, 04:42 PM
Perhaps RJ's quote means that historically Reds have been no more likely to turn Black than anyone else, and the present number is anomolously high because Galina has been using her position as head of the Red Ajah to step up recruitment.

Weird Harold
12-19-2009, 09:30 PM
Perhaps RJ's quote means that historically Reds have been no more likely to turn Black than anyone else, and the present number is anomolously high because Galina has been using her position as head of the Red Ajah to step up recruitment.
That assumes that I remembered that there IS such a quote correctly and that what I remember seeing was an accurate report of what RJ said. :rolleyes:

You do make a good point that current percentages and historical percentages are not necessarily the same thing so both the presumptive RJ Quote and Marie's numbers could be correct.

Marie Curie 7
12-20-2009, 02:25 PM
I re-read this section after your post marie because i don't remember it ringing any suspicion bells(If i even have those!).

To me it reads like Talene was the one they discovered i.e. the one that they cuaght in a lie. The rest of the blacks on your list were revealed to them or given up as you suggest in your comments.

Maybe i'm just looking for an easy answer though...

Well, as I have said a couple different times now, if the other Blacks that the hunters captured were ever mentioned in TGS at all, then it would be easier for me to just pass that statement off as an issue with interpretation. But since Atuan, Marris, and Ferale were never mentioned, I still have to wonder why that was.

That would be a silly assumption to make, because there is clearly some variance and one BA more or less in the smaller ajahs would be a half a percentage point difference.

Silly? I think not. We know that the overall percentage of Blacks among Aes Sedai is about 23%. If the supposition is that the Black Ajah members are approximately evenly distributed throughout the Ajahs, then a good starting point to examine this notion is to base the calculations on 23% in each Ajah. Sure, there will be some statistical variation, but we don't know exactly how much variation.

For whatever reason, the Red Ajah's percentage of BA is a "flyer," since the rest are neatly grouped around ~~21% +/- 3 (18-24%)and the Reds are another +3% outside of that range.

Without a preconceived explanation for the Flyer, I would question the assumption(s) that led to the discrepancy. You however have put a lot more thought, effort and calculation into the numbers than I have.

A "flyer"? I think you probably mean an outlier (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outlier). At any rate, yeah, the other values do all fall in the range of 18-24%. However, you have to remember that those percentages are based on my estimates of the totals in each Ajah. Other than the specific information that the Red comprises nearly one in five of all Aes Sedai, we only have very general information about the numbers in each Ajah (like which Ajahs are larger and so on); thus, much of the statistical variation in the percentages for the Ajahs other than Red could be due to uncertainties in my estimates of the Ajah numbers.

For example, we know that the White is the smallest Ajah. And from a previous post, we can enumerate 43 sisters in the White, which sets the minimum number in the Ajah. I ended up setting the number in the White Ajah at 70 for reasons previously explained, and that leads to an estimate of 24% Blacks in the White Ajah, a value on the high side of the range of 18-24%. But what if there were really 80 rather than 70 members in the White Ajah? That total seems a bit high, but it still could be argued as plausible, and would lead to a prediction of 21% Blacks in the White Ajah instead of my original estimate of 24%. The numbers in the other Ajahs would also have to be adjusted to keep the total at 900 and the overall Black percentage at 23%, and doing so would lead to a slightly different estimate of Black percentages in each Ajah. So it could end up that the range of Blacks in the non-Red Ajahs was really 19-23% or 20-22% depending on the actual numbers. I do think that my estimates of the numbers of sisters in each Ajah follow the general information that we have been given pretty well, but they are only estimates.

Anyway, as I said previously, the percentage of sisters in the Red Ajah is one of the pieces of information that we know best, nearly 20% of the total number of Aes Sedai. Any adjustment made to the Red total to bring the calculated percentage of Blacks in the Red Ajah down into the 18-24% range (or 19-23% range, or whatever) throws that overall total of Reds out of whack - that's what my previous post on this topic showed – that the percentage of Black sisters in the Red Ajah is indeed slightly higher than the others.

wolframbohr2
12-21-2009, 01:47 PM
I have done some calculations. The problme come in to that we have to many assumptions and guess. And some pretty good one. But is the Red percentage realy that far off concidering the number of assumptions that were made? Not realy.

A way to bring the Red down to 24% is to have an other 20 sisters, all Red all non-BA. That bings the total of AS to 920, the total Reds to 200.

200/920 = 21.7%
1 in 5 (1/5) can be bound by 1/4.5 and 1/5.4 (rounding is fun)
1/4.5=22.2%
1/6.4=18.5%

21.7% (200/920) is between 18.5% (1/5.4) and 22.2% (1/4.5) and can be equated as 1 in 5.

I would conclude the Red numbers are not differnt enough from the rest for cause of concern.

But the line says "nearly" which is less than. I would agre that nearly does not need to mean less than it can mean over, but not enough to kick it to the next level.

Numbers and statitical stuff is fun, but you need to keep in mind what you are doing and know how much weight you can put in to the numbers. For example, lets say there is a close election, so close that it was decided by 1 vote. Lets say the news organiazations want to report the results as out of 10. They would be forced to make the winner 6/10 and the looser 4/10. now this would work for the situation I listed if there were only 10 people voteing. But if it were 300 million that voted, well it makes it appear that the winner got more than the 1 vote that declaired him the winner.

Some things to keep in mind are:
1. Ajha number fluctate. There is no standing there going, "Sorry you can't choose this one cause it throughs off the number you need to pick a different Ajah"

2. Likewise the number of BA in each Ajha will also fluctuate, the BA councile is not going to say "Sorry, you can not be BA cause it throughs the numbers off"

3. We do not know who was raised when (except for those in New Spring) thus we do not know how the Ajha's numbers increased or decreaced over time. There could have been a run on one Ajah for a bit, an other could have not had any raised to them for a long time. Likewise, there could have been an increase in BA.

4. Randomness has clusters. It would worry me if everything was perfect in breakdowns. There could have been a cluster of BA Reds at one point in time throwing off the percentages. At one time, there could have been a lack of BA Reds. Likewise AS do not die based on percentages. One is not gonna kick the bucket for the sake of keeping numbers nice and tidy. If Reds are after a man who can channel, they are not gonna tell him, "You can only kill 2 of us because if you kill more it will through off the percentages, unless you go to this town and kill these other sisters to change the other Ajhas numbers, then you can kill more of us."

5. We do not know why the people choose their Ajha and why they chose the BA. There could have been events the led more to choose to Red BAs at a particular time (see #4)

As I said before there are a lot of unknowns. The high Red BA could just be a fall out of our our assumptions. It is not too far from the others. Had it been 30%+ Reds as BA, then I would be a bit more concern as for why. But as it stands I think it is right in line with the other numbers.

Marie Curie 7
12-28-2009, 01:18 PM
I have done some calculations. The problme come in to that we have to many assumptions and guess. And some pretty good one. But is the Red percentage realy that far off concidering the number of assumptions that were made? Not realy.

A way to bring the Red down to 24% is to have an other 20 sisters, all Red all non-BA. That bings the total of AS to 920, the total Reds to 200.

It is possible to lower the percentage of Blacks among the Red Ajah by increasing the total number of Red sisters in the way that you have suggested; however, the problem with this method of adjustment is that it neglects the other pieces of information that serve to constrain the overall distribution of sisters among the Ajahs. For example, we also have to take into account the fact that the Green Ajah is close behind the Red in total number of sisters. And in addition, we have to consider the nearly 1 in 5 proportion of the Reds, as I have mentioned before.

If we look at the totals that were projected previously based on the starting point of 23% Black in each Ajah, we can see that the projection apparently leads to an inflated number of Reds compared to my original population estimates:

Red - 209
Green - 165
Gray - 130
Brown - 122
Yellow - 91
Blue - 91
White - 74

TOTAL: 882

(By the way, this calculation leads to only 882 sisters total because I rounded the overall percentage of Blacks to 23% - it's actually 22.56% - however, using 22.56% in the calculations instead of 23% doesn't affect the overall trends or the general conclusions.)

At any rate, the projection leads to a total of 24% sisters in the Red Ajah (209/882), which is quite a bit higher than the nearly 1 in 5 value given by the BWB. In addition, the Green total is 165 sisters, which appears not to be close enough to the Red total of 209 to be considered 'close behind' the Reds in number.

If we adjust the projected numbers above so that the Red contains 24% Black rather than 23% Black, that would lead to the following distribution:

Red - 200
Green - 165
Gray - 130
Brown - 122
Yellow - 91
Blue - 91
White - 74

TOTAL: 873

With this adjustment, the Reds still constitute 23% of all Aes Sedai (again greater than the nearly 1 in 5 value), and they are still well above the Greens in number, 200 vs. 165. And adding additional sisters to the Green to make their numbers closer to the Red fixes the Red/Green proportion but the increase in overall Aes Sedai population does not have a big enough impact on the percentage of sisters in the Red to bring it to 20% or below.

One of the other things that the projection shows is that my original estimates of Ajah populations fall within 10 sisters of the projected values, with two exceptions. One is the Red Ajah population, which is projected to be higher than my original estimate, and as I have shown above it is difficult to correct this value and still keep the Red Ajah population within the range required by the other constraints.

The other Ajah population that seems a bit out of whack, though, is the Yellow Ajah. The projection based on 23% Black in the Ajah yields only 91 sisters, yet my original estimate was for 120 sisters, a difference of 29 (which is as large a difference as for the Red Ajah). This high estimate of 120 sisters in the Yellow Ajah also leads to a low percentage of Blacks in that Ajah, 18%, as originally calculated, the lowest of any of the Ajahs. The only constraint on the Yellow Ajah population is that it must lie between the Brown and Blue Ajah populations. Thus, we could consider lowering the Yellow Ajah population to 110 and increasing the White Ajah (for example) to 80 sisters. This would yield a distribution as follows (with %Black listed in parentheses):

Red - 180 (27%)
Green - 160 (24%)
Gray - 140 (21%)
Brown - 130 (22%)
Yellow - 110 (19%)
Blue - 100 (21%)
White - 80 (21%)

TOTAL: 900

This still sets the Yellow Ajah population a bit lower than the projected value based on a starting point of 23% Black, but it is closer to the projection, with a difference of only 19 sisters rather than 29 sisters, and it does satisfy the constraint that the population falls between the Brown and Blue Ajahs. At any rate, as I will explain below, shifting the Ajah populations by 10 sisters as I did here generally leads to variations of only 1-2% in the Black percentage for an Ajah. That's why I explained in a previous post that while my original estimates of population led to a range of 18-24% Black in the non-Red Ajahs, it could easily be adjusted to 19-23% or 20-22%. The problem is still with the Red Ajah.

So, the point here is that it is possible to make adjustments to the populations of the other Ajahs if they seem a little off and still keep the non-Red Ajah populations within the constraints. However, because of the multiple constraints on the Red Ajah population, it is not possible to adjust it so that the %Black is closer to the others and at the same time keep the population below the 1 in 5 constraint and close to that of the Green.

200/920 = 21.7%
1 in 5 (1/5) can be bound by 1/4.5 and 1/5.4 (rounding is fun)
1/4.5=22.2%
1/6.4=18.5%

21.7% (200/920) is between 18.5% (1/5.4) and 22.2% (1/4.5) and can be equated as 1 in 5.

I would conclude the Red numbers are not differnt enough from the rest for cause of concern.

But the line says "nearly" which is less than. I would agre that nearly does not need to mean less than it can mean over, but not enough to kick it to the next level.

Your analysis of rounding would be appropriate except for the fact that as noted, the BWB states that nearly 1 in 5 of all sisters are Red. Obviously, you have chosen to interpret that to mean that the percentage may be larger or smaller than 20%, but my interpretation (and I believe the correct one) of 'nearly 1 in 5' is that it means the proportion is almost but slightly less than 1 in 5. If it were meant to imply a proportion either slightly smaller or slightly larger than 1 in 5, then I would have expected the BWB to state something like 'about 1 in 5' or 'close to 1 in 5' rather than 'nearly 1 in 5'. So, in my opinion, simply adding sisters to the Red Ajah to decrease the percentage of Black Reds doesn't work because it increases the percentage of Reds above 1 in 5 of the total, and of course it also increases substantially the number of Reds relative to number the Greens.

If you want to use rounding in the way that you have done to provide a range that corresponds to 'nearly 1 in 5', then the Red Ajah population should more appropriately be bracketed in the following way: 1/5.4 <= Red Ajah < 1/5, or 18.5% <= Red Ajah < 20.0%. Your estimates do not fall within this range. Furthermore, you will notice that to make the percentage of Blacks in the Red Ajah as low as possible and as close to the values for the other Ajahs as it could be, I set the Red Ajah population at exactly 20% of the total rather than just a little less. If I had set the Red population slighyly lower than 20%, then the %Black in the Red Ajah would appear even further out of whack relative to the other Ajahs.

Numbers and statitical stuff is fun, but you need to keep in mind what you are doing and know how much weight you can put in to the numbers. For example, lets say there is a close election, so close that it was decided by 1 vote. Lets say the news organiazations want to report the results as out of 10. They would be forced to make the winner 6/10 and the looser 4/10. now this would work for the situation I listed if there were only 10 people voteing. But if it were 300 million that voted, well it makes it appear that the winner got more than the 1 vote that declaired him the winner.

In your example of 10 people voting, it would never be possible for one candidate to win by just one vote as you have suggested. With an even number of voters, the winner always must win by at least two votes and thus for the closest possible victory (2 votes) with 10 voters, the 6/10 vs. 4/10 proportions are exactly correct - so your example is flawed.

Regardless, you should note that when I made my original estimates of Ajah populations, I rounded them to the nearest 10 sisters in part to account for various fluctuations in the populations of each Ajah and in the number of Black sisters. So assuming that my estimates are good to the nearest 10 sisters (or +/- 5), we can determine how variations in population of 10 sisters affects the calculated percentage of Blacks in each Ajah. The calculations show that rounding to the nearest 10 sisters in Ajah population generally leads to a variation in Black percentage of only about 2% overall (+/- about 1%) for all the Ajahs except the White (more specifically, it leads to variations of 1.6-2.1%, or +/-0.8-1.1%). Because the White Ajah is so small, a variation of +/- 5 sisters in population yields a variation of about 3.5% (or +/-1.8%) in the percentage of Blacks in the White Ajah. So, variations in Ajah size of roughly 10 sisters are not quite enough to account for the slightly higher percentage (27%) of Blacks in the Red Ajah.

Some things to keep in mind are:
1. Ajha number fluctate. There is no standing there going, "Sorry you can't choose this one cause it throughs off the number you need to pick a different Ajah"

2. Likewise the number of BA in each Ajha will also fluctuate, the BA councile is not going to say "Sorry, you can not be BA cause it throughs the numbers off"

Yes, we know that the Ajah numbers fluctuate to some degree. However, the BWB quote that gives the breakdown by Ajah states that it was written during the course of the books (i.e., during the same year or so that the action is occurring); thus, it gives the current distribution of sisters in the Ajahs:

TITLE: BWB
CHAPTER: 24 - The White Tower

While neither the White Tower nor any Ajah has ever made their numbers known, rough approximations of size are possible with respect to the Ajahs. With a membership encompassing nearly one in five of Aes Sedai at the time of writing (an indication of the perceived importance of their primary task), the Red Ajah is certainly the largest. Close behind comes the Green, followed in order by the Gray, the Brown, the Yellow, the Blue, and finally, the White Ajah. It seems that these sizes have remained roughly in the same proportions since the Breaking, with seldom a shift of more than one place in the ranking, but no one can say what effect current events will have.

And it's worth noting that the BWB also states in the quote above that the proportions in population of the Ajahs have remained roughly the same since the Breaking.

3. We do not know who was raised when (except for those in New Spring) thus we do not know how the Ajha's numbers increased or decreaced over time. There could have been a run on one Ajah for a bit, an other could have not had any raised to them for a long time. Likewise, there could have been an increase in BA.

The number of Accepted who are raised Aes Sedai in any given year generally has to be rather small. At the time of New Spring, for example, there were less than 100 novices and about 60 Accepted in the Tower, and Moiraine thought that fewer than 20 of the novices would be allowed to test for Accepted, and most women are Accepted for several years before being gaining the shawl.

At any rate, if the average lifespan of an Aes Sedai is about 150-200 years and there are fewer than 1000 Aes Sedai at present (~900 or so), then that corresponds to only about 5-6 sisters per year on average raised to the shawl in recent times, or on average slightly less than one sister per Ajah per year. This would be the rate of sisters joining the Ajahs assuming that the same number of sisters die or retire per year in order to maintain a fairly steady population of Aes Sedai.

However, in New Spring, Moiraine noted that the population of Aes Sedai at the time was around 1200:

TITLE: New Spring
CHAPTER: 3 - Practice

There were rooms for over a hundred Accepted in this well, and the same in a second well, too. Perhaps the numbers would not have come to mind now except for Gitara's Foretelling, yet she had thought about them before. They were etched in her brain as if with acid. Space for above two hundred Accepted, but the second well had been shut up since time out of memory for any living Aes Sedai, and barely more than sixty of these rooms were occupied. The novices' quarters also had two wells, with rooms for almost four hundred girls, but one of those was long closed, too, and the other held under a hundred. She had read that once novices and Accepted had both been housed two to a room. Once, half the girls who were entered in the novice book had been tested for the ring; fever than twenty of the current novices would be allowed to. The Tower had been built to house three thousand sisters, but only four hundred and twenty-three were in residence at the moment, with perhaps twice as many more scattered across the nations. Numbers that still burned like acid. No Aes Sedai would say it aloud, and she would never dare say it where a sister might hear, but the White Tower was failing. The Tower was failing, and the Last Battle was coming.

So there were slightly more than 400 Aes Sedai in residence at the time and about twice as many out in the world, or roughly 1200. But 20 or so years later, there are fewer than 1000 Aes Sedai:

TITLE: Lord of Chaos
CHAPTER: 7 - A Matter of Thought

A sliver of cold slid down Elayne's backbone, and nothing to do with whether Elaida was fearful or engaged. Two hundred ninety four Aes Sedai in the Tower, supporting Elaida. Nearly one-third of all Aes Sedai, almost as many as had gathered in Salidar. It might be that the best that could be expected was for the rest to split down the middle as well. After a great rush in the beginning, the numbers coming into Salidar had slowed to a trickle. Perhaps the flow to the Tower had dwindled as well. It could be hoped.

So the Tower has actually lost about 300 sisters (assuming a current population of ~900 Aes Sedai) in about 20 years from the time of New Spring to the present, or around 15 sisters per year, or an overall loss of about 2 sisters per Ajah per year.

4. Randomness has clusters. It would worry me if everything was perfect in breakdowns. There could have been a cluster of BA Reds at one point in time throwing off the percentages. At one time, there could have been a lack of BA Reds. Likewise AS do not die based on percentages. One is not gonna kick the bucket for the sake of keeping numbers nice and tidy. If Reds are after a man who can channel, they are not gonna tell him, "You can only kill 2 of us because if you kill more it will through off the percentages, unless you go to this town and kill these other sisters to change the other Ajhas numbers, then you can kill more of us."

Well, I have never stated that the percentage of Blacks in each Ajah should be expected to be exactly the same or that the percentages should remain exactly the same over time. In some of my previous projections, I used the overall percentage of Blacks, 23%, as a baseline for predicting the total number in each Ajah. As I have said before, yes, it is expected that there will be fluctuations in the percentage of Blacks in each Ajah. But can you state with certainty just how large those fluctuations should be? The range of 18-24% for the percentage of Blacks in the non-Red Ajahs, as mentioned previously, came about primarily as a result of my estimates for Ajah size based on the available information about the distributions. It could just as easily be 19-23% or 20-22%, for example. As I have shown above, fluctuations in population of the Ajahs of 10 sisters leads to variations in the %Black in each Ajah of about 2% (except for the White Ajah).

5. We do not know why the people choose their Ajha and why they chose the BA. There could have been events the led more to choose to Red BAs at a particular time (see #4)

Again, it is stated in the BWB that the distribution of sisters among the Ajahs has remained fairly constant since the Breaking. And no, I'm not suggesting that means that the Green Ajah has always contained exactly 18% of the total number of Aes Sedai (or whatever) - we know that there will be statistical fluctuations in Ajah sizes over time. But the BWB statement does suggest that the Green has almost always been close behind the Red Ajah with the second largest number of sisters - and therefore we can use that information to project that the maximum possible fluctuations in the Green Ajah have ranged from perhaps about 160 to 175 members in recent times, for example. It's not known exactly how large the fluctuations have been, but the statement in the BWB that the rank of each Ajah in size has remained generally the same (with seldom a shift of even one in rank) puts some limits on the magnitude of the fluctuations over time.

With regard to your statement that there "could have been events the led more to choose to Red BAs at a particular time" - that's exactly the point! My analysis shows that the estimated percentage of Blacks in the Red Ajah is slightly higher than perhaps what should be expected. So why might that be? The suggestion has been made that because the Highest of the Red Ajah, Galina, was Black (and a member of the Supreme Council), she was able to use her influence in some way to help increase the number of Black sisters in the Red Ajah.

And actually, we do have some idea of why women choose a particular Ajah. Sisters in each Ajah watch the Accepted for particular skills, talents, temperament, and so on, and recruit those that appear to fit into their Ajahs. A quiet studious type would likely be recruited by the Browns, for example. RJ even said in a Q&A that the Ajahs pretty much know ahead of time which Ajah a particular Accepted will select:

A Crown of Swords book tour 9 October 1996, Dunwoody, GA - Erica Sadun reporting

Q: Can an Accepted be raised to Aes Sedai and not choose an Ajah? What happens if they are raised ask for acceptance and are refused?

RJ: This never happens. They are chosen in advance and vetted.

And we also have a pretty good idea of how Black Ajah members are recruited:

Lord of Chaos book tour, Seattle 1994 - Tony Zbaraschuk reporting

Q: How does the Black Ajah recruit new members?

RJ: Very carefully. You have to understand that EVERY Ajah recruits carefully and subtly. Generally, after all those years as novice and Accepted, your teachers know your character and personality VERY well, and you are guided to the Ajah where you fit. The Black Ajah watches too. And recruitment is a one-shot offer: they offer, and you can accept or die. There are a lot of ways to die that wouldn't lead to any suspicion; for instance, it's pretty easy to kill yourself experimenting with the One Power. Who would think that such a death wasn't accidental?


As I said before there are a lot of unknowns. The high Red BA could just be a fall out of our our assumptions. It is not too far from the others. Had it been 30%+ Reds as BA, then I would be a bit more concern as for why. But as it stands I think it is right in line with the other numbers.

And my analysis shows that the %Black in the Red Ajah is slightly too high when the other constraints on Ajah populations are taken into account, even considering possible fluctuations in Ajah populations. I haven't implied that it is cause for concern, but rather that it perhaps gives us a hint that Galina as Highest of the Red Ajah was able to use her position to add to the number of Blacks in the Red Ajah.

GonzoTheGreat
12-28-2009, 03:59 PM
To be honest, I wouldn't say that a difference of a few percent is significant at all. It would be far more suspicious if there were no difference at all; if all Ajahs had precisely the same proportion of Black members. That would require very careful planning, but having differences such as those that exist now would be the expected result of random fluctuations.

Consider for example the White Ajah: if, during the fighting after Siuan was disposed 5 Black members from the White had been killed, then before that uprising the WA would have had 29% BA.
That's not a really impossible scenario, and this shows in my opinion that the difference is too small to be significant.

Mind: I'm not saying that the White must have had the greatest proportion of BA members at any time during the series, merely that some variation is natural.

Marie Curie 7
12-28-2009, 10:13 PM
To be honest, I wouldn't say that a difference of a few percent is significant at all. It would be far more suspicious if there were no difference at all; if all Ajahs had precisely the same proportion of Black members. That would require very careful planning, but having differences such as those that exist now would be the expected result of random fluctuations.

Yes, there will be random fluctuations in the percentages - I have stated that multiple times. :rolleyes: From previous posts:

Post #56
Silly? I think not. We know that the overall percentage of Blacks among Aes Sedai is about 23%. If the supposition is that the Black Ajah members are approximately evenly distributed throughout the Ajahs, then a good starting point to examine this notion is to base the calculations on 23% in each Ajah. Sure, there will be some statistical variation, but we don't know exactly how much variation.

Post #58
Well, I have never stated that the percentage of Blacks in each Ajah should be expected to be exactly the same or that the percentages should remain exactly the same over time. In some of my previous projections, I used the overall percentage of Blacks, 23%, as a baseline for predicting the total number in each Ajah. As I have said before, yes, it is expected that there will be fluctuations in the percentage of Blacks in each Ajah. But can you state with certainty just how large those fluctuations should be? The range of 18-24% for the percentage of Blacks in the non-Red Ajahs, as mentioned previously, came about primarily as a result of my estimates for Ajah size based on the available information about the distributions. It could just as easily be 19-23% or 20-22%, for example. As I have shown above, fluctuations in population of the Ajahs of 10 sisters leads to variations in the %Black in each Ajah of about 2% (except for the White Ajah).


Consider for example the White Ajah: if, during the fighting after Siuan was disposed 5 Black members from the White had been killed, then before that uprising the WA would have had 29% BA.
That's not a really impossible scenario, and this shows in my opinion that the difference is too small to be significant.

Well, assuming 80 sisters in the White gives a percentage of 22/80 = 27.5% with 5 added Blacks compared to 17/80 = 21.3%, a variation of about 6%. Obviously since the White Ajah is the smallest, it will be subject to the largest variation. On the other hand, in the Red Ajah a loss of 5 Black Ajah members would correspond to a change in Black percentage from 29.4% (before the hypothetical deaths of five Black Reds) to 26.7% (current), a difference of less than 3%.

At any rate, potential statistical variations can be analyzed in greater detail than your single example. And I believe that the analysis still supports that the Red Ajah percentage is slightly higher than the others and that it is a significant difference (i.e., outside the range of expected statistical fluctuations).

To begin, we can consider variations in the Ajah populations while keeping the number of Blacks in each Ajah fixed. I gave a summary of these calculations in my previous post; however, it may be helpful to look at a graphical analysis. In my previous analysis, I considered variations of 10 sisters in the population of Ajahs (+/-5). Here, to look at an even broader range, I will consider variations of 20 sisters in Ajah population (+/-10). So for example, based on my original estimate of 180 for the Red Ajah, I consider a range of 170-190 sisters. Then the range of percent Blacks was determined from the high and low values of the population. For example, minimum % Black in the Red = 48/190 or 25.3%, and maximum % Black in the Red = 48/170 or 28.2%. I repeated this for each Ajah. The results are shown below.

http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o71/mariecurie7/ajahpop.jpg

The colored vertical lines represent the range in %Black for each Ajah as a result of the fluctuations in Ajah population of 20 sisters. (The last vertical line on the graph represents the range for the White Ajah.) The dashed horizontal lines on the graph represent +/- one standard deviation and +/- two standard deviations. The standard deviation was calculated based on my estimates of Ajah population and the %Black determined for each Ajah from those estimates and equals 2.43.

The graphical analysis shows that a significant portion of the ranges of the %Black for the Ajahs fall within one standard deviation of the overall average %Black (22.56%). The Red Ajah is the only one that has no part of its range within one standard deviation, and it is the only one with a substantial portion of its range falling outside of two standard deviations.


Next, we can consider variations in Black Ajah population while holding the population of each Ajah fixed. Using as a basis the example given previously, my calculations consider variations of 6 Black sisters within each Ajah rather than 5 (so that I could use a symmetrical distribution of +/-3 sisters). So again, for example, the minimum number of Blacks in the Red Ajah was considered to be 45 for a percentage of 45/180 or 25.0%, and the maximum number of Blacks in the Red Ajah was 51 for a percentage of 51/180 or 28.3%. This procedure was repeated for each Ajah to obtain estimates of the fluctuations due to variations in Black numbers. The results are shown below.

http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o71/mariecurie7/blackpop.jpg

Again, in this graph the colored vertical lines represent the range in %Black for each Ajah, this time as a result of the fluctuations in Black Ajah numbers of 6 sisters for each Ajah. As before, the dashed horizontal lines on the graph represent +/- one standard deviation and +/- two standard deviations, with one standard deviation equal to 2.43.

The conclusions from this graph, considering fluctuations in the numbers of Blacks in each Ajah, are similar to those presented for the previous graph. Here, we see again that a significant portion of the ranges of the %Black for each Ajah fall within one standard deviation of the overall average %Black. Again, the Red Ajah is the only one that has no part of its range within one standard deviation, and it also has a substantial portion of its range falling outside of two standard deviations.

------

Finally, we can look at the issue of the Red Ajah in yet a different way, by simply considering Red vs. non-Red Ajahs. This analysis allows us to remove any uncertainties due to estimates of populations in each of the Ajahs other than the Red (and the Red is the population we know best). I have not focused on an analysis of this type in most of the previous posts because it does not allow application of the other constraint on the Red Ajah population (that it is close to the Green in number). Nevertheless, it provides another method of analysis of the Black percentage within the Red Ajah.

The percentage of Blacks among the Reds is currently (by my estimate) 48/180, or 26.7%. The composite percentage of Blacks among the non-Reds is therefore 155/720, or 21.5%. That's a difference of 5.2%, well above the variations of 1-2% that I showed in my previous post were possible due to fluctuations in Ajah populations of 10 sisters.

Even if we consider variations of 20 in the population of the Red Ajah (+/- 10), the range in Red Black percentage is still well above the non-Red Black percentage. The values in this case would be:

48/190 = 25.3%
48/180 = 26.7%
48/170 = 28.2%

So considering variations in Ajah population of 20 members, the Black% in the Red ranges from 25.3-28.2%, a range that is still well above the non-Red percentage of 21.5% by 4-7%. The Red population would have to be 223 members in order to achieve a percentage of Blacks that matched the percentage of 21.5% in the non-Red Ajahs.

In addition, if we want to consider fluctuations in Black Ajah numbers as well, using a variation of 6 Blacks (or +/- 3), the Black percentage in the Red Ajah can be bracketed by the following values (as noted previously):

45/180 = 25.0%
48/180 = 26.7%
51/180 = 28.3%

Here again, we can see that even allowing for variations of up to 6 members in the Black population among the Reds, the percentage of Blacks in the Red Ajah ranges from 25.0-28.3%, still above the composite percentage of Blacks in the non-Red Ajahs (21.5%) by 4-7%.

SauceyBlueConfetti
12-29-2009, 08:51 AM
You win HCFF of the month Marie. Charts to back up your percentages...seriously, that made me smile this morning.

wolframbohr2
12-30-2009, 09:52 PM
I am writting my university and telling them to redact my degree. I am unworthy.

Terez
12-30-2009, 10:03 PM
I am writting my university and telling them to redact my degree. I am unworthy.
I don't think anyone expects someone with a BS to be on par with a prof. But yes, you are unworthy. ;)

wolframbohr2
12-30-2009, 11:42 PM
I don't think anyone expects someone with a BS to be on par with a prof. But yes, you are unworthy. ;)

Does not matter, my interpritations can cause harm to millions. In my line of work nearly means + or -, but evidently that is wrong and corrective action needs to be taken.

Terez
01-04-2010, 03:09 AM
I have been wondering if we should consider Alanna to be exonerated. Did Egwene's thoughts cover all of the Black Ajah that she has met? Alanna was one of Siuan's delegation to Fal Dara, but Egwene and Alanna only really came to know each other through the testing incident, where Alanna offered to take penance with Egwene to show how sorry she was. That was right as Siuan had set Egwene and Nynaeve to hunt the Black - Sheriam fetched her for the testing from Verin's rooms. As Egwene thought about Verin's list of names (in The Gathering Storm), she even noted that she had suspected everyone then - and indeed, Alanna was one of those that she suspected, on the basis of her strange behavior. But then Egwene left for Tear, and hasn't seen Alanna since.

RJ pushes it a little further in The Shadow Rising, when Perrin asks Loial to keep an eye on Alanna, and Loial reports that Alanna disappeared twice with no explanation, and that even Ihvon seemed surprised that she was gone. This was on the same day that Perrin and the boys first suffered casualties fighting the Trollocs (27 died as they were ambushed in the Waterwood, and Perrin survived only because Alanna had sent Ihvon after Perrin, and he got there just in the nick of time to save Perrin from a Fade.

Anyway...Slayer was definitely responsible for that ambush - he was there when Gaul reported the Trollocs in the Westwood. Perrin assumed that Luc could have had nothing to do with it because he was indeed seen in the village right after they met, but Perrin doesn't know that Slayer has the ability to step in and out of Tel'aran'rhiod in the flesh. But Alanna's odd behavior that day, so far as I know, is unexplained.

Then, of course, in Lord of Chaos, she bonds Rand. It's very easy to see her as a pawn of Verin, in that case or any of the others. Min saw Alanna 'in Rand's hand', different from the viewing that included Elza (that group would serve him, 'each in her own way'). Alanna's behavior in Winter's Heart seems to speak in favor of her not being a Darkfriend, but it's still possible that she had orders to find him and stay by his side.

But surely Egwene would have thought about her specifically while reading the list, right? She doesn't know anything about the bonding of Rand, so I suppose it's possible that Alanna just slipped off her radar, but it doesn't seem likely. Also, Alanna's motives seem best explained (as always) by her obsession with the boys. Mat was in the Tower at the time of Egwene's testing.

GonzoTheGreat
01-04-2010, 03:40 AM
Well, Egwene does not appear overly concerned about the possibility that any BA might have an interest in the DR anyways, so her ignoring Alanna, who is not in the Tower after all, is not a clear sign of anything, I would say.

FelixPax
01-26-2010, 07:43 PM
Digging up an older thread...

Ah, didn't know that. Foreshadowing :mad:

I recently noticed this small bit of prior foreshadowing that Moria would be later tagged as a darkfriend:

Magla went so far as to shake a fist, with a fury she did not attempt to mask. “Only a Darkfriend could suggest this! Only a Darkfriend!” Moria paled at the accusation, then went bright red with anger of her own.

Masuri
01-31-2010, 11:19 AM
Then, of course, in Lord of Chaos, she bonds Rand. It's very easy to see her as a pawn of Verin, in that case or any of the others. Min saw Alanna 'in Rand's hand', different from the viewing that included Elza (that group would serve him, 'each in her own way'). Alanna's behavior in Winter's Heart seems to speak in favor of her not being a Darkfriend, but it's still possible that she had orders to find him and stay by his side.

But surely Egwene would have thought about her specifically while reading the list, right? She doesn't know anything about the bonding of Rand, so I suppose it's possible that Alanna just slipped off her radar, but it doesn't seem likely. Also, Alanna's motives seem best explained (as always) by her obsession with the boys. Mat was in the Tower at the time of Egwene's testing.

I'm re-reading Winter's Heart and found something interesting. When Elayne bonded Rand (and Min and Aviendha), Alanna passed out. Everyone rushed to check on her and Cadsuane looks at Verin who seems terrified. She then thinks to herself that she's never seen Verin look so frightened. Now maybe Verin was just frightened about what would happen to Rand if something happened to Alanna, but the others would have been thinking the same thing. Plus, Verin isn't one to let her feelings show. So, why was she so afraid?

Kimon
01-31-2010, 12:29 PM
I'm re-reading Winter's Heart and found something interesting. When Elayne bonded Rand (and Min and Aviendha), Alanna passed out. Everyone rushed to check on her and Cadsuane looks at Verin who seems terrified. She then thinks to herself that she's never seen Verin look so frightened. Now maybe Verin was just frightened about what would happen to Rand if something happened to Alanna, but the others would have been thinking the same thing. Plus, Verin isn't one to let her feelings show. So, why was she so afraid?

Probably no need to overthink this one, but I think you have the source of her worry twisted inside out- I don't think she's worried so much about Alanna, I think it's that she is "terrified" about what might have happened to Rand that caused Alanna to pass out. This is really nothing strange. You might note that when Perrin met up with the rebel trackers right before the battle at Dumai's Wells, he commented (to himself) that Verin "smelled furious- and afraid".