Ta'veren: When and How?

[Weird Harold]

Obviously, the Three Amigos, -- Rand, Mat, and Perrin -- weren't ta'vern as infants or as small boys. Emmond's Field simply couldn't have survived the close effects of three ta'veren for the eighteen years they lived there. :D

So, when did each of them first manefest as ta'veren?

Mat's ta'veren-ness kicked into high gear after he was separated from the Ruby Dagger, but is that when if first kicked in?

Perrin's ta'veren is, as far as I can see, limited to people swearing fealty to him left and right. has there been any other evidence besides Siuan's ability to see ta'veren auras?

Rand's extreme ta'veren effects are well documented, and his first touch of Saidin is well researched -- but when was his first twist of probability?

[Ozymandias]

Well lets be honest; the only true signs of ta'veren we've seen are from Rand, at least in terms of twisting chance and whatnot. Mat or Perrin's passage never seems to elicit any major response, like the ones we see from Rand on the journey to Tear in tDR. So in that sense, there is no reason to presume it would have torn Emond's Field apart, as the effects that would have done so never really appear or appeared for Mat or Perrin.

For all of that, I guess you could say the defining events of their lives are the ones that brought out the ta'veren effects; first time channeling for Rand, dagger for Mat, and meeting Elyas for Perrin. However, even after these things we don't hear about any particular ta'veren effects until Book 3, and more like Book 8 for Perrin, and I'm not even sure we've seen anything definitively ta'veren for Mat; just the results of his luck (whether thats ta'veren or something else is a separate issue).

[Nazbaque]

Well to be ta'veren results in odd stuff so it would have been noted in TR even if it were small and far between things, yet it is fairly obvious that nothing notable ever happened there before the Trolloc attack. The attack itself required one of the boys to be ta'veren because Ishy needed to track him down. But the Trollocs specifically attacked the places assosieted with all of the three boys and not just one which means they weren't sure which was the DR. Thus they all had to be actively ta'veren at the time, which in itself made it possible for Rand to survive the day. For if just one of them was active it would be Rand and the Trollocs would have left EF alone and attacked the al'Thor farm in full force.

[Ozymandias]

Thats not the case. It wasn't based on ta'veren. I suggest you re-read that book. They were looking for boys of a certain age. Because Ishamael had discovered that someone had taken the Dragon Reborn back to Emond's Field, he just didn't know which child it was.

I don't precisely remember, but I'm nearly certain the Trollocs hit a few other farms/houses of boys of a similar age. It had nothing to do with being ta'veren, and everything to do with the fact that they (forces of the Shadow) knew a baby born on Dragonmount had been taken back to Emond's Field... they just didn't know who precisely it was, they're only frame of reference was that he was a newborn during the Battle of the Shining Walls and they counted backwards.

[Nazbaque]

That is how Moiraine was tracking them. Care to post a quote to proove Ishamael knew those things. The exact time of Rand's birth was known only to Tam, who found him and Moiraine and Siuan who heard it when Gitara Foretold it Tamra Ospenya the then Amyrlin Seat was also there she was murdered later and might have let something on but I doubt it and Gitara died on the spot when she saw Rand's birth. No one else knew.

[Ozymandias]

Nazbaque - we KNOW that Tamra was murdered and interrogated (but not in that order) by the Black Ajah. She had been there when Gitara gave the Foretelling, and NS indicates that her dead certainty as to the timing indicates other possible Foretellings as well. So we know the Black Ajah is aware of when the Dragon is Reborn, it is, at the very vaguest, sometime around the Battle of the Shining Walls, as the ensuing census that occurs should make it clear what is going on to anyone who already has the knowledge of whats being searched for.

Therefore, we know the Black Ajah is aware of the timing of Rand's birth. That means Ishamael is also aware. How he tracked them from there is anyone's guess, but its very clear that Ishy wasn't targeting just three boys, he was targeting ALL boys which is why we know he wasn't certain who the three ta'veren were.

Besides the fact that Moiraine says as much, we also know that the Thane's house is burned, lending further credence to the idea that while the Trollocs were almost certain, they had a few other variables.

[Yuri33]

New Spring, Epilogue:
Not the one. Somehow, Moiraine had almost expected that. "Merean will not harm anyone ever again, Siuan. Put that mind of yours to a puzzle for me." Settling in a chair, she began with the end, and hurried through despite Siuan's gasps and demands for more detail. It was almost like living it again. Getting to what had led her to that confrontation was a relief. "She wanted Diryk dead most of all, Siuan; she killed him first. And she tried to kill Lan."

"That's mad," Siuan growled. "What links an eight-year-old boy to a coldhearted lionfish like Lan?"

"Luck. Diryk survived a fall that should have killed him, and everyone says Lan is the luckiest man alive or the Blight would have killed him years ago. It makes a pattern, but the pattern looks crazy to me. Maybe your blacksmith is even part of it. And Josef Najima, back in Canluum, for all I know. He was lucky, too. Puzzle it out for me if you can. I think it is important, but I cannot see how."

Siuan strode back and forth across the room, kicking her skirt and rubbing her chin, muttering about "men with luck" and "the blacksmith rose suddenly" and other things Moiraine could not make out. Suddenly she stopped dead and said, "She never went near Rahien, Moiraine. The Black Ajah knows the Dragon was Reborn, but they don't bloody know when! Maybe Tamra managed to keep it back, or maybe they were too rough and she died before they could pry it out of her. That has to be it!" Her eagerness turned to horror. "Light! They're killing any man or boy who might be able to channel! Oh, burn me, thousands could die, Moiraine. Tens of thousands."

It did make a terrible sense. Men who could channel seldom knew what they were doing, at least in the beginning. At first, they often just seemed to be lucky. Events favored them, and frequently, like the blacksmith, they rose to prominence with unexpected suddenness. Siuan was right. The Black Ajah had begun a slaughter.

"But they do not know to look for a boychild," Moiraine said. As hard as she had to be. "An infant will show no signs. We have more time than we thought. Not enough to be careless, though. Any sister can be Black. I think Cadsuane is. They know others are looking. If one of Tamra's searchers locates the boy and they find her with him, or if they decide to question one of them instead of killing her as soon as it is convenient . . ." Siuan was staring at her. "We still have the task," Moiraine told her.

"I know," Siuan said slowly. "I just never thought. Well, when there's work to do, you haul nets or gut fish." That lacked her usual force, though. "We can be on our way to Arafel before noon."

The BA, and by extension Ishmael did not know Rand was only just born, only that the Dragon Reborn exists.

[Nazbaque]

(woops wrong thread)
Posting for real now: Ban and Lem had less than a years age difference with the 3 amigos so if the Myrddraal didn't know when exactly why not attack their families as well? simple answer: they weren't ta'veren.

[Weird Harold]

(woops wrong thread)
Posting for real now: Ban and Lem had less than a years age difference with the 3 amigos so if the Myrddraal didn't know when exactly why not attack their families as well? simple answer: they weren't ta'veren.
But Rand wasn't Ta'veren when he was Born, or the BA/Ishamael would have been able to track him down much sooner they did.

So the question is, WHEN did Rand become Ta'veren.

Moiraine would NOT have needed to give each of them a coin to tag them for tracking if she could have tracked them by their ta'veren effects.

I don't believe any of them were actively ta'veren prior to reaching Baerlon, maybe not until they got to Shadar Logoth.

Through most of tEotW, Ishamael was sort of tracking them by invading their dreams -- it wasn't terribly accuarte, but it kept the shadowspawn close on their heels.

[Marie Curie 7]

I wonder if this scene is the first instance of Rand's ta'vereness:

TITLE: Eye of the World
CHAPTER: 6 - The Westwood

The trotting column disappeared westward, thumping footfalls fading into the darkness, but Rand remained where he was, not moving a muscle except to breathe. Something told him to be certain, absolutely certain, they were gone before he moved. At long last he drew a deep breath and began to straighten.

This time the horse made no sound at all. In eerie silence the dark rider returned, his shadowy mount stopping every few steps as it walked slowly back down the road. The wind gusted higher, moaning through the trees; the horseman's cloak lay still as death. Whenever the horse halted, that hooded head swung from side to side as the rider peered into the forest, searching. Exactly opposite Rand the horse stopped again, the shadowed opening of the hood turning toward where he crouched above his father.

Rand's hand tightened convulsively on the sword hilt. He felt the gaze, just as he had that morning, and shivered again from the hatred even if he could not see it. That shrouded man hated everyone and everything, everything that lived. Despite the cold wind, sweat beaded on Rand's face.

Then the horse was moving on, a few soundless steps and stop, until all Rand could see was a barely distinguishable blur in the night far down the road. It could have been anything, but he had not taken his eyes off it for a second. If he lost it, he was afraid the next time he saw the black-cloaked rider might be when that silent horse was on top of him.

How did that Myrddraal not see Rand? Rand was crouched over Tam, about 20 paces back from the road. The Myrddraal stopped just opposite him. Since Myrddraal are supposed to be able to see "like eagles in brightest sunlight or darkest shadow" (BWB), it seems awfully strange that it would have missed Rand. Maybe it was a ta'veren twist of fate, that one time out of thousands that the Myrddraal missed seeing something that close even in the dark and shadowy woods.

[Nazbaque]

Um WH the tracking of ta'veren is a skill not known to many. I think it was said somewhere (TSR IIRC) that only Ishamael and Lanfear know it and possibly one or two others among the Forsaken. In any case it is not a talent of Moiraine's.

[Weird Harold]

In any case it is not a talent of Moiraine's.

Then how exactly did she lead the chase to Tear by tracking his Ta'veren effect?

The better part of TDR is spent showing peeks at "Perrin's Party" and the trail of ta'veren effect they're following.

[Nazbaque]

Well that was just following clues I'm talking about reading the Pattern itself and then noting that "so there the little bugger is"

[GonzoTheGreat]

Perrin's ta'verenness seems to be the best explanation by far for him meeting Elyas, precisely at the right time. Randland is big, and Elyas seems to wander through all of it, only avoiding the places where he might meet humans. Yet when Perrin needed an introduction to wolves (and dinner), Elyas happened to be there instead of 500 miles to the south, north, east or west.
Furthermore, he didn't only get people swearing fealty at him. He also got people (Whitecloaks) just plain swearing at him.

It may be difficult to figure out whether it was Mat's ta'verenness or Rand's which caused Rand's brush with the Whitecloaks in Baerlon. But it was definitely Mat's which made him pick up that dagger, instead of some other weapon.

Loial recognised it, when he first met the lot of them in Caemlyn.

[Nazbaque]

A thought just occured to me that they had to be ta'veren for sometime before anything really weird happened. Think about it: Wheel selects someone as ta'veren and the Age lace starts to form. It has to take time for the lace to reach levels intrigate enough to cause the weird stuff. The problem of applying this here is the question of what qualifies as really weird. One other problem is how this applies to Ishy's tracking skill.

I still maintain my view that something more than mere age had to single the three amigos out because Ban and Lem weren't hunted and that something had to be ta'veren and since all three of them were attacked they all had to be ta'veren already or one or two of them wouldn't have been singled out as a target.

[Ozymandias]

TITLE: Eye of the World
CHAPTER: 8 - A Place of Safety
"Not crazy, Rand," she said. "Purposeful. The Trollocs did not come to Emond's Field by happenstance, and they did not do what they did for the pleasure of killing and burning, however much that delighted them. They knew what, or rather who, they were after. The Trollocs came to kill or capture young men of a certain age who live near Emond's Field."

TITLE: Eye of the World
CHAPTER: 8 - A Place of Safety
"Master Crawe's house was not even damaged," Moiraine said, "and the miller and his family slept through half the attack before the noise woke them. Ban is ten months older than you, and Lem eight months younger." She smiled dryly at his surprise. "I told you I asked questions. And I also said young men of a certain age. You and your two friends are within weeks of one another. It was you three the Myrddraal sought, and none others."

So I was wrong and right. They did only attack the big 3, but they were looking for them by age, and not ta'veren.

[Ozymandias]

Perrin's ta'verenness seems to be the best explanation by far for him meeting Elyas, precisely at the right time. Randland is big, and Elyas seems to wander through all of it, only avoiding the places where he might meet humans. Yet when Perrin needed an introduction to wolves (and dinner), Elyas happened to be there instead of 500 miles to the south, north, east or west.

It may be difficult to figure out whether it was Mat's ta'verenness or Rand's which caused Rand's brush with the Whitecloaks in Baerlon. But it was definitely Mat's which made him pick up that dagger, instead of some other weapon.

I suppose thats possible for Perrin, though its also random chance. Being ta'veren means impacting the world around you, the way Rand does. I mean, you could use the same reasoning for Perrin and apply it to anyone. That Egwene just happened to see Amys in that exact part of the Waste on that exact night at that exact moment in T'A'R. Or that Lan arrived JUST in time to save Nynaeve, and not a second later. That logic can be used on most characters in the books, ones we KNOW aren't ta'veren, which makes me more inclined to say its part of the story and NOT part of being ta'veren.

And as for the dagger, it wasn't a'veren that made him pick that up. ANY weapon or object he grabbed would have had the same exact effect, so that also is a poor example.

[JSUCamel]

That logic can be used on most characters in the books, ones we KNOW aren't ta'veren, which makes me more inclined to say its part of the story and NOT part of being ta'veren.


Haven't you ever barely missed getting into a car accident, or were just about to get clobbered on the playground when the teacher walked by, or just about to ask a girl out when some other guy walks up and talks to her first?

Is that fate, or is that chance?

There doesn't HAVE to be a ta'veren effect for chance encounters to happen. Yes, the Wheel weaves as the Wheel wills, but even with a Pattern, there is still opportunity for pure chance to happen, I think.

[Weird Harold]

Perrin's ta'verenness seems to be the best explanation by far for him meeting Elyas, precisely at the right time. Randland is big, and Elyas seems to wander through all of it, only avoiding the places where he might meet humans. Yet when Perrin needed an introduction to wolves (and dinner), Elyas happened to be there instead of 500 miles to the south, north, east or west.

Wasn't it the Wolves who guided Elyas to Perrin?

Ta'veren Effects are hard to disntinguish from the Pattern and the Wheel's weavings. Elyas was spun out, became a wolf-brother and was in the area because that's how his thread was woven.

The only thing that Perrin's ta'veren-ness might have affected is whether Elyas chose to help or not -- since Elyas was already inclined to help new wolfbrothers, it didn't require much of a ta'veren twist to put him in Perrin's camp.

Mat and the dagger would have been Rand's Ta'veren-ness (if any t'averen was involved) because ta'veren affect OTHERS' decisions and actions, not their own. Again, though, it wouldn't have required much of a twist of probablility to make Mat pick it up -- Moiraines' warning and Mat's contrary nature had already provided more than enough "twist."

A thought just occured to me that they had to be ta'veren for sometime before anything really weird happened. Think about it: Wheel selects someone as ta'veren and the Age lace starts to form. It has to take time for the lace to reach levels intrigate enough to cause the weird stuff. The problem of applying this here is the question of what qualifies as really weird. One other problem is how this applies to Ishy's tracking skill.

You're foregetting that the Three Amigos, Artur Hawkwing and the like are persistent ta'veren which is NOT the general run of ta'veren-ness.

IIRC, the example given is a begger on the street might become ta'veren just long enough to cause a minor correction -- a fight, marriage proposal, spooked horse, or whatever -- in that immediate vicinity and then never be ta'veren again.

MOST ta'veren can't affect an entire town and even MAt and Perrin don't affect more than a few dozen spans around them. Only Rand -- and, reportedly, Hawkwing -- affects entire cities or regions. Even Rand didn't start affecting that much volume until after Falme and confirmation to the World that the Dragon had been Reborn.

[GonzoTheGreat]

Mat and the dagger would have been Rand's Ta'veren-ness (if any t'averen was involved) because ta'veren affect OTHERS' decisions and actions, not their own.
They don't?
Then what is it that made Mat speak the words that got him married?
What is it that made Rand pick the right symbol on the Portal Stone when he wanted to go to Rhuidean?
What is it that made Perrin to free a captive Aiel?

[Uno]

There doesn't HAVE to be a ta'veren effect for chance encounters to happen. Yes, the Wheel weaves as the Wheel wills, but even with a Pattern, there is still opportunity for pure chance to happen, I think.

There's always chance, I'd say. Rand’s POV concerning his “miracles" in Caemlyn, LOC, 195:

Rand exhaled slowly. They did not mention the other sort, of course. The man who stumbled on a step and was hanged when his kerchief caught on the door latch. The loose slate ripped from a room by a high wind that sailed through an open window and a doorway to kill a woman sitting at table with her family. The sort of thing that did happen, but rarely. Only such things were not rare around him. For good or ill, for ill as often as good, he twisted chance merely by being within a few miles.

[Weird Harold]

Then what is it that made Mat speak the words that got him married?

FATE: He was born with those words in his mouth and simply steered by th ePattern to the proper situation to utter them.

What is it that made Rand pick the right symbol on the Portal Stone when he wanted to go to Rhuidean?

FATE/MAT: Rand wasn't the only Ta'veren standing in front of that particular portal stone.

What is it that made Perrin to free a captive Aiel?

The only thing about Perrin that is softer than his heart is his head. I would say FATE because Gaul was important to Perrin's future, but Perrin would have released him whether he knew that or or not. That was just Perrin's "pacifist big man" character showing through.

[Nazbaque]

TITLE: Eye of the World
CHAPTER: 8 - A Place of Safety
"Master Crawe's house was not even damaged," Moiraine said, "and the miller and his family slept through half the attack before the noise woke them. Ban is ten months older than you, and Lem eight months younger." She smiled dryly at his surprise. "I told you I asked questions. And I also said young men of a certain age. You and your two friends are within weeks of one another. It was you three the Myrddraal sought, and none others."

So I was wrong and right. They did only attack the big 3, but they were looking for them by age, and not ta'veren.
This is what Moiraine believes to be true and Moiraine has been wrong in quite a few occaisons. The Shadow didn't know Rand's exact birthday so leaving Ban and Lem alone would have been sloppy unless they had more than the age to mark the boys out.

[Ozymandias]

This is what Moiraine believes to be true and Moiraine has been wrong in quite a few occaisons. The Shadow didn't know Rand's exact birthday so leaving Ban and Lem alone would have been sloppy unless they had more than the age to mark the boys out.


Um... they knew he was born within a few days of the Battle of the Shining Walls. I'm not sure how much more specific you need to get. They KNEW from Tamra that there was a set, small window of time in which Rand was born. Knew it for fact. We know Rand, Mat, and Perrin are all within weeks of each other. They left a little room for error in, but with limited forces, they couldn't afford to go after the outliers who were almost a year in either direction.

Put bluntly, we have not a single instance where we see that Ishamael tracked the boys because they were ta'veren. Quite the opposite, we know that its incredibly difficult (I believe Aran'gar or Demandred thinks this). So we have two options. Either its very difficult to track ta'veren, and we have textual evidence to support this idea, which means that the Trollocs could not possibly have found the boys in the few months since their ability manifested itself (or if it had been there all along, they would have been killed long since), or its very easy, as Ishy seems to think, and therefore finding the strongest ta'veren would have been simple.

And there is another bit of circumstantial evidence in your theory. Lets say they were tracking them by means of their ta'veren ability (or sensing it). When Rand flees into the woods, they already are aware he's ta'veren... why don't they catch him then? It should be child's play.

To reiterate. We have not ONE single piece of evidence suggesting that Rand/Mat/Perrin were tracked due to being ta'veren. We have numerous pieces of evidence which point to a number of forces all reaching them at the same time based on age.

Think on this. If the Black Ajah is keeping track of the hunt for the Dragon Reborn, which its safe to assume they are, then doesn't it make perfect sense that they would arrive right around the time Moiraine did?

In any case, I challenge you to find a single piece of evidence supporting your theory. You asked me to, and I found it. Multiple selections. You don't even have an adequate defense to those, at this point, but I doubt one is coming... so lets see a little evidence of your own beyond "Moiraine is wrong this time because she was wrong at other times."

[Nazbaque]

New Spring, Epilogue
Siuan strode back and forth across the room, kicking her skirt and rubbing her chin, muttering about "men with luck" and "the blacksmith rose suddenly" and other things Moiraine could not make out. Suddenly she stopped dead and said, "She never went near Rahien, Moiraine. The Black Ajah knows the Dragon was Reborn, but they don't bloody know when! Maybe Tamra managed to keep it back, or maybe they were too rough and she died before they could pry it out of her. That has to be it!" Her eagerness turned to horror. "Light! They're killing any man or boy who might be able to channel! Oh, burn me, thousands could die, Moiraine. Tens of thousands."
They are quite in the dark on this one ozy ironically enough.

[Weird Harold]

They are quite in the dark on this one ozy ironically enough.
Eighteen years before the first attack on Emoond's Field, the BA was in the dark, but Ishamael killed the head of the BA at that time for being stupid and trying to kill the Dragon Reborn as a child.

In eighteen years, with Ishamael's expertise at deciphering prophecies and some application of logic, it seems very likely to me that the BA or Ishamael could easily have deduced that Tamra started the search as soon as she found out and Gitara's last foretelling/farseeing announced the moment he was born.

[The Immortal One]

unless they had more than the age to mark the boys out
Wasn't it simply Fain going there after being "distilled" and being able to feel their "essence"; whatever that means.

[Enigma]

[QUOTE=In eighteen years, with Ishamael's expertise at deciphering prophecies and some application of logic, it seems very likely to me that the BA or Ishamael could easily have deduced that Tamra started the search as soon as she found out and Gitara's last foretelling/farseeing announced the moment he was born.[/QUOTE]

That might be a reasonable assumption but I doubt Ishamael could say 100% that the fortelling happened when Rand was born. If he was not absolutely certain he could not afford to limit the search. Too much depended on it from the Shadow's point of view.

Added to that is the fact that we don't know a great deal about Ishamael's freedom of action before TEotW. None of the other forsaken were out and about and we were told Ishamael could only appear in flickering visions. I stand to be corrected on when he achieved physical freedom but I though it was about the around the same time Moiraine arrived in the Two Rivers.

[Ozymandias]

That might be a reasonable assumption but I doubt Ishamael could say 100% that the fortelling happened when Rand was born. If he was not absolutely certain he could not afford to limit the search. Too much depended on it from the Shadow's point of view.

Added to that is the fact that we don't know a great deal about Ishamael's freedom of action before TEotW. None of the other forsaken were out and about and we were told Ishamael could only appear in flickering visions. I stand to be corrected on when he achieved physical freedom but I though it was about the around the same time Moiraine arrived in the Two Rivers.


No no, Ishamael gains physical freedom for a fairly long period of time (decades, at least) very millenium or so.

Secondly, he knows exactly when Rand was born. Well, not to the minute, but likely to the day. He knows when Gitara gave the foretelling. He knows of the Prophecies. Its not a particularly large stretch for a man of his intelligence and resources to connect the very obvious dots.

And Naz, I won't go back through New Spring (don't own it anymore) but I am 100% positive that they say somewhere in there that the Black Ajah doesn't know exactly when Rand was born, but they have a pretty good clue. Within weeks, at the most.

The point being, there is not one shred of evidence to suggest that the forces of the Shadow are tracking the big 3 through their identities as ta'veren. It requires several completely unreasonable assumptions, including the fact that ALL three boys had their ta'veren-ness manifest itself simultaneously, mere days before Winternight. And, of course, that Myrdraal are physically capable of tracking ta'veren.

More importantly is the fact that there is not one, you heard it, not ONE shred of evidence in the books, interviews, or supplementary works to support the idea that this is how Rand & Co were found. Whereas the age-based idea has a great deal of evidence, both circumstantial and otherwise.

So far the strongest defense I've heard is "Moiraine is sometimes wrong. Therefore, she was wrong about this. Therefore, the Shadow tracked their ta'veren emanations"

[Terez]

They were able to make Tamra tell that he had been reborn, but not when. Evidently the Shadow got the information it needed just in the nick of time, just as Moiraine apparently did.

[Yuri33]

During the events of New Spring, none of the BA (and by extension, Ishmael) knew anything about the DR's age (they were killing boys and men alike). It is reasonable to believe that after ~18 years, they puzzled out that he was only just born. As an example, one could reason that if he was a boy during NS, he would have been of age already, and likely already declared himself DR. Conversely, if he was a man during NS, he would be too old by now to be the DR.

But there are several other ways, some already highlighted in this thread, that they could have found Rand. The first is Fain, whom they turned into the Hound, so he could track him down. Another is to follow Moiraine\Lan themselves. If the Shadow found out that those two had spent a lifetime searching for the DR, and that they were heading to the remote western portion of Andor, they could easily send their own operatives after him.

Remember, RJ had meant to write another novella dealing with the events that led to Moiraine and Lan arriving at Emond's field just in time. This suggests a race of some sort, some piece of information or new intel that both had access to that led them to Emond's field.

[Terez]

You said the same thing I said, but you were more wordy about it, so I got there first. :p

[Weird Harold]

That might be a reasonable assumption but I doubt Ishamael could say 100% that the fortelling happened when Rand was born. If he was not absolutely certain he could not afford to limit the search. Too much depended on it from the Shadow's point of view.

If Gitara's Farseeing (Foretelling of the present moment) was the ONLY clue to Rand's birth, then you'd have a point, but there's the Star in the East, and the Three Magi, and the Angelic Chorus, and the Shepherds in the Field and....

Oh wait, that's a different messiah figure. :D

Still, we don't know all of the Prophesies of the Dragon but there are bound to be all kinds of signs and portents to mark the Dragon's Rebirth. else the "Karethean Cycle" would only be about the size of pamphlet instead of a life's work plus for dedicated scholars to translate.

Added to that is the fact that we don't know a great deal about Ishamael's freedom of action before TEotW. None of the other forsaken were out and about and we were told Ishamael could only appear in flickering visions. I stand to be corrected on when he achieved physical freedom but I though it was about the around the same time Moiraine arrived in the Two Rivers.

Jarna Malari

An Aes Sedai and Sitter for the Gray Ajah. She is also head of the Black Ajah before Alviarin.
...
Chronology
After King Laman's death, Jarna Malari and other Sitters ask Moiraine to consider taking the Sun Throne herself. (NS,Ch6)

In 979 NE she has the Amyrlin Seat, Tamra Ospenya, questioned and killed while searching for information about the Dragon Reborn. (ACoS,Prologue, Guide, NS,Ch14)

Circa 982 NE Ishamael learns that she set the Black Ajah to hunt and kill the Dragon Reborn and kills her in a fit of anger. (ACoS,Prologue, Guide)

Ishamael had sufficient freedom of action to kill Jarna Malari fifteen years before Winter Night/Bel Tine 998 NE.

[Yuri33]

You said the same thing I said, but you were more wordy about it, so I got there first.

I've heard that speed isn't the best quality to show off with women. :)

[Terez]

Now that, my dear, depends on the situation. ;)

[GonzoTheGreat]

Still, we don't know all of the Prophesies of the Dragon but there are bound to be all kinds of signs and portents to mark the Dragon's Rebirth. else the "Karethean Cycle" would only be about the size of pamphlet instead of a life's work plus for dedicated scholars to translate.
Of course, Ishamael was a scholar who didn't even need to translate the thing, since it was conveniently written in his own native language.

Still, based on Fain's testimony, I would say that Fain was far more important in narrowing down the list of suspects to the Three Amigos than the words in the KC were.
And since Fain would never even consider exaggerating his own importance, we know we can trust him in this.

[Weird Harold]

Still, based on Fain's testimony, I would say that Fain was far more important in narrowing down the list of suspects to the Three Amigos than the words in the KC were.

Fain was important in identifying which boys in Emond's Field fit the age requirement, but he had nothing to do with establishing the age requirement or the search locus in the Two Rivers.

[Ozymandias]

In fact, Fain's presence speaks the the Shadow having some knowledge of the boys age. He was sent in to keep an eye on the boys in and around the village, and I'm sure he wasn't keeping track of the 25 year olds and the ten year olds. By the time he went back to have their "essence" distilled, the Shadow had to have known just who they were dealing with. Which means they knew at least several months before the events of Winternight. Remember, they distilled three specific boys, not a bunch of them. Which makes it even more confusing as to why it took so damn long for them to get there. I guess Ishy didn't know the importance of the other two just yet, figured he had one shot at this, and wanted to make as sure as possible.

[GonzoTheGreat]

TEOTW, Chapter 47, More Tales Of The Wheel

"Three years ago ..." With a heavy sigh Moiraine sat down, folding up as if what she had done with Fain had drained her. "Three years, this summer. As far back as that. The Light surely favors us, else the Father of Lies would have triumphed while I still sat planning in Tar Valon. Three years, Fain has been hunting you for the Dark One."
"That's crazy!" Rand said. "He's come into the Two Rivers every spring as regular as a clock. Three years? We've been right there in front of him, and he never looked at any of us twice before last year." The Aes Sedai pointed a finger at him, fixing him.
"Fain told me everything, Rand. Or almost everything. I believe he managed to hold back something, something important, despite all I could do, but he said enough. Three years ago, a Halfman came for him in a town in Murandy. Fain was terrified, of course, but it is considered a very great honor among Darkfriends to be so summoned. Fain believed he had been chosen for great things, and he had, though not in the manner he believed. He was brought north to the Blight, to the Blasted Lands. To Shayol Ghul. Where he met a man with eyes of fire, who named himself Ba'alzamon."
...
"Fain did not like what was done to him at Shayol Ghul," Moiraine continued calmly. "While we talked, he screamed often of fire and burning. It almost killed him, bringing it all out from where he had it hidden. Even with my Healing he is a shattered ruin. It will take much to make him whole again. I will make the effort, though, if for no other reason than to learn what more he still hides. He had been chosen because of where he did his peddling. No," she said quickly when they stirred, "not the Two Rivers only, not then. The Father of Lies knew roughly where to find what he sought, but not much better than we in Tar Valon.
"Fain said he has been made the Dark One's hound, and in a way he is right. The Father of Lies set Fain to hunt, first changing him so he could carry out that hunt. It is the things done to bring about those changes that Fain fears to remember; he hates his master for them as much as he fears him. So Fain was sent sniffing and hunting through all the villages around Baerlon, and all the way to the Mountains of Mist, and down to the Taren and across into the Two Rivers."
...
"After that, Fain was taken to Shayol Ghul again, and his mind was – distilled." Rand's stomach turned over at the tone in the Aes Sedai's voice; it told more of what she meant than the grimace that flashed across her face. "What he had ... sensed ... was concentrated and fed back. When he entered the Two Rivers the next year, he was able to choose his targets out more clearly. Indeed, more clearly even than the Dark One had expected. Fain knew for a certainty that the one he sought was one of three in Emond's Field."
...
Moiraine did not allow Mat to interrupt her. She raised her voice enough to be heard over him. "When Fain returned to Lugard, Ba'alzamon came to him in a dream. Fain abased himself and performed rites that would strike you deaf to hear the half of them, binding himself even more tightly to the Dark One. What is done in dreams can be more dangerous than what is done awake." Rand stirred at the sharp, warning look, but she did not pause. "He was promised great rewards, power over kingdoms after Ba'alzamon's victory, and told that when he returned to Emond's Field he was to mark the three he had found. A Halfman would be there, waiting for him with Trollocs. We know now how the Trollocs came to the Two Rivers. There must have been an Ogier grove and a Waygate at Manetheren."

There is nothing in here which suggests that Fain was set to hunt for a particular age group. A far more reasonable assumption seems to me that Fain was turned into a ta'veren hunter. That would neatly explain why he came up with all three suspects, and couldn't work out which one was the right one. It would also explain why, when the boys started displaying their ta'verenness, Fain turned particularly against Rand, who was the strongest.

I think that the age similarity is something that only confused Moiraine, and may not even have been known to Ishamael at all. It was irrelevant to him, since he did not depend on the notes that Moiraine and Siuan had made in New Spring.

Can anyone offer any evidence at all that the Shadow knew what age the DR had to have at the start of these events?

[Ozymandias]

There is nothing in here which suggests that Fain was set to hunt for a particular age group. A far more reasonable assumption seems to me that Fain was turned into a ta'veren hunter. That would neatly explain why he came up with all three suspects, and couldn't work out which one was the right one. It would also explain why, when the boys started displaying their ta'verenness, Fain turned particularly against Rand, who was the strongest.

I think that the age similarity is something that only confused Moiraine, and may not even have been known to Ishamael at all. It was irrelevant to him, since he did not depend on the notes that Moiraine and Siuan had made in New Spring.


I don't think its physically possible for them to have been ta'veren hunters.

3 Years ago the boys CAN'T have been ta'veren. Otherwise, Fain would have sensed them long ago and brought them in. And if they only recently developed their ta'veren mark, then we know Fain wasn't hunting ta'veren in the first place, because he never could have sensed them.

So I'm not sure how you can escape that. If they've been ta'veren all along you have an insurmountable gap in logic and action, because the Shadow took so long to act. And if they only just manifested their ta'veren uniqueness, then there is no explanation as to why Fain has been hunting in and around the Two Rivers for so many years.

At best, your evidence has made this a 50/50 guess in which all logic works against you. You have yet to provide ANY proof that Ishamael hunted these young men through their mark on the Pattern; all you've done is attempt to refute any claim that it was done through age. And your only defense to that is "well, Moiraine has been wrong in the past, and therefore she is wrong now".

Basically, you don't have an argument, you don't have evidence, and you've acknowledged that because you've completely abandoned your initial stance in order to attack the opposition. When you decide you have the evidence to defend your own ideas, I'll start listening. At this point, though your acting like a fool.

This isn't our theory, its yours, so the burden of proof isn't on us, so saying;

Can anyone offer any evidence at all that the Shadow knew what age the DR had to have at the start of these events?

doesn't help your point. You proposed a theory. We don't have to defend our ideas, necessarily, we just need to poke holes in yours. And right now your defense to that has been to try and shift the conversation on what we think the alternative is. Show us some definite proof and we'll listen. But the argument "its possible, and therefore we have to consider it as equal to any other possibility" shouldn't, and doesn't, cut it.

Especially when we've provided evidence, however flimsy, for our side and you have yet to come up with even the barest defense for your ideas.

[GonzoTheGreat]

First of all: I am not saying that my suggestion is strongly enough supported to be a proper theory. Perhaps such support can be found, but at the moment I don't think so.

Second, I am not suggesting that they already were ta'veren when Fain started his hunt. We do not know how Ishamaels trick works, and we don't know whether or not he would be able to pick up those that are going to be ta'veren. True, that is pure speculation, but at least it is speculation that is consistent with what is known.

Three, the idea that the Shadow was hunting for them by age is gainsaid in the books themselves. At least in the period of New Spring there is very strong evidence that the Shadow didn't know how old the DR was at the time. There is also evidence that this persisted after all the other searchers (apart from Moiraine and Siuan) had been killed. So there was no way for the Shadow to learn about it after that, unless there is some unknown and unmentioned prophecy about it that the BA did not know but Ishamael did.

It is entirely possible that some other explanation exists, or even that RJ never bothered to work out the actual mechanics of how Fain found them. My main objection against the "the Shadow went by age" is that not only is there a lack of evidence, there is actually some evidence against it.

[WinespringBrother]

From Encyclopaedia WOT:

Glimmers Q&A - One becomes ta'veren according to the needs of the Wheel. No one is born ta'veren. Rand, Mat and Perrin became ta'veren just before Moiraine appeared.

[Weird Harold]

So I'm not sure how you can escape that. If they've been ta'veren all along you have an insurmountable gap in logic and action, because the Shadow took so long to act.

The fact that the Shadow waited until four months after Rand's eighteenth birthday -- probably just after the last of the Three Amigos turned eighteen, but I can't find exact birthdates for Mat and Perrin just offhand.

Winternight/Bel Tine is also a significant date in "mystical" terms and the Trollocs attacked the first Winternight after all three turned eighteen -- perhaps The Shadow needed to wait for "the stars to align" before acting.

And if they only just manifested their ta'veren uniqueness, then there is no explanation as to why Fain has been hunting in and around the Two Rivers for so many years.

In the Starscape edition of tEotW part I: From the Two Rivers The additional prologue Earlier: Ravens has this to say:

Summary
Egwene POV - It is late spring and Egwene is nine years old.2 She is fetching water from the Winespring Water for the shearing of the sheep. She intends to be the best water carrier. She notices a raven acting unusually bold and wonders about tales of spies for the Dark One. Kenley Ahan teases her a bit, then heads off with his bucket and Egwene follows. ,,, Cilia Cole is nearby making calf eyes at Perrin. Egwene notices more ravens watching the meadow. Egwene fetches more water...

2 Assuming Egwene's birthday is earlier in the year, that makes the year 990 NE. Rand, Mat and Perrin are eleven. Nynaeve is sixteen or just turned seventeen.


That suggests that the Shadow/DO has been aware of Rand's (general) location for at least five years before setting Fain to to refine the identification and location and at least eight years before attacking.

I think the proximity to the Three Amigos reaching "adulthood" had more to do with the timing of beginning of the story than opportunity or lack of knowledge on the part of the Shadow did.

The lack of an exact identification even after knowing his general location for eight years or more indicates that they're working from prophecy and/or rumor rather than physical indicators -- if they were working from physical indicators or the fact that Rand was brought to the Two Rivers by Tam, as Moiraine and Lan were, Rand's resemblance to an Aeil should have been enough to pinpoint him even if having an outsider for a mother didn't.

[Ozymandias]

WH - I'm not sure I understand. Your general idea is that they knew about Rand, but were waiting for him to reach adulthood before taking him? That is completely inconsistent with what we know of the Shadow and its aims. If anything, taking him as a child would have made him easier to turn...

thats pretty flimsy ground to stand on. And if those ravens were watching the boys, what was Fain's job? He wouldn't be nearly as reliable or efficient as the birds.

It might be more likely that the birds were there to scout out likely boys, as they could cover a great deal of ground, and Fain was ordered to check out any possibilities. The birds and rats found Rand, noticed he was of an age/seemed to fit the Prophecies, or what they knew of them, and Ishamael ordered Fain in to make sure. Every time, the information he gathered was distilled and updated so that he could more easily track Rand.

I just don't see you rationale, otherwise. Your idea that they might have manifested their ta'veren abilities upon Winternight of reaching manhood is interesting (if a little contrived... your kind of making the facts fit the theory, rather than visa versa), but there isn't really a set age for man or womanhood in the Two Rivers. It seems to be that whenever you display enough responsibility and capability, your granted that status. I don't think 18 is necessarily an important age; we have no such evidence of that, at least. And a lot of that particular idea hinges on the fact that Winternight of your 18th year is somehow unusually important.

The entire theory hinges on the fact that there is a specific, universal date at which ta'veren abilities manifest. Nevermind that your thread s the same from birth, it only changes environment, which strongly supports the idea that you are ta'veren from birth, which in turn totally debunks this entire thread.

[Spidy]

Specific dates aside, Ishamael wasn't spun out at the time to make the connection of T'ness and the apocryphal 3 until such time as he was spun out sans Ag and Bal. As such, T'ness could have manifested immediately the King T'ness due (aka Rand al'Thor maifested) and Perrin and Mat were scooped up.

Therefore, Dark Dudes had no pointers. Flaw here is Isam, what was he doing in the meantime, or was he confined to old Blighty?

Does anyone rank them like I have in terms of influence? I always thought Rand was 1, Mat was 2 and Perrin 3 for some reason. Ghenjei influence I think.

[Spidy]

I'm gonna respond to myself here.

What's to say that T'ness can't bring into being a dampening field until such time that T'Ness is due to be overtly published.

Ravens and rats are everywhere and perhaps they had an inkling Dragon Reborness was in the general area ( a touch and feely/smelly sort of thing) but involuntary dampened/masked T'ness confused them until the moment was ripe.

WH - Egwene age sort of matches female OP manifestation so perhpas there is a link there though I am not sure about a 9 year old pubescent female matches as well as it should.

[Weird Harold]

Specific dates aside, Ishamael wasn't spun out at the time to make the connection of T'ness

Post #33 inthis thread: (http://www.theoryland.com/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=5748&postcount=33)Ishamael had sufficient freedom of action to kill Jarna Malari fifteen years before Winter Night/Bel Tine 998 NE.

Fifteen years should have been long enough for him to make the connection/ :D

WH - I'm not sure I understand. Your general idea is that they knew about Rand, but were waiting for him to reach adulthood before taking him? That is completely inconsistent with what we know of the Shadow and its aims. If anything, taking him as a child would have made him easier to turn...

The general idea is that the Pattern wouldn't let the Shadow find the definitive piece of data they needed until the Wheel was ready for the final sprint to T'G to begin. It's part and parcel of the belief that the timing of T'G is fixed and immutable, determined by a cosmic alignment or convergence of mystical forces -- A la The Age Of Aquarius and the stage musical Hair.

ETA:
When the moon is in the Seventh House
And Jupiter aligns with Mars
Then peace will guide the planets
And love will steer the stars

This is the dawning of the Age of Aquarius
The Age of Aquarius
Aquarius! Aquarius!

Harmony and understanding
Sympathy and trust abounding
No more falsehoods or derisions
Golden living dreams of visions
Mystic crystal revelation
And the mind's true liberation
Aquarius! Aquarius!

The Wheel and Pattern are in charge of the Signs And Portents and Ishamael/the DO seem to be following signs and portents rather than facts and rumors. If you're following S&P you have to wait for the next sign or portent to clarify what you already know.

What's to say that T'ness can't bring into being a dampening field until such time that T'Ness is due to be overtly published.

Um. RJ, maybe? Kind of like the Q&A citation Winspringbrother posted earlier:

From Encyclopaedia WOT:

Glimmers Q&A - One becomes ta'veren according to the needs of the Wheel. No one is born ta'veren. Rand, Mat and Perrin became ta'veren just before Moiraine appeared.

WH - Egwene age sort of matches female OP manifestation so perhpas there is a link there though I am not sure about a 9 year old pubescent female matches as well as it should.

Egwne didn't touch the OP before Moiraine began training her. Nyneave was already actively channeling (having already healed Egwene fo Breakbone Fever.) One barely pubescent girl who won't channel for another eight years doesn't seem like much of a beacon to work with.

[Terez]

Does anyone rank them like I have in terms of influence? I always thought Rand was 1, Mat was 2 and Perrin 3 for some reason. Ghenjei influence I think.
I argued against that on another board before. There were a lot of details in my argument, but it basically boiled down to, Mat just appears to be a stronger ta'veren than Perrin because the Pattern has to work harder to keep him in line. :D