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Ivhon
07-16-2010, 11:38 AM
Maybe....for now. (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128559002)

I want to think that this is a good thing. But with the way things are going and the worst case scenario being described as "the seafloor being ruptured irreparably" I have to kinda wait for the next piano to drop.

Basel Gill
07-16-2010, 12:00 PM
Yep. I'll believe it when the relief wells are finished, shown to be working and we have gone several years without a fault being evident in the sea floor.

Crispin's Crispian
07-16-2010, 12:30 PM
Yep. I'll believe it when the relief wells are finished, shown to be working and we have gone several years without a fault being evident in the sea floor.

It's hard to get excited about it knowing the ecosystem of the majority of the Gulf maybe take centuries to recover. It's kind of like looking down at your bullet riddled chest and trying to be happy that the clip is finally empty.

Sei'taer
07-16-2010, 12:41 PM
Don't hold your breath....

Sei'taer
07-16-2010, 05:13 PM
You want to know my reasons or is the above enough?

Just as a teaser...wrong cap. They are hoping it holds, but it's not made to take the pressure of the water or the pressure of the oil. It's a damn fine cap in normal circumstances but I have my doubts that it will hold. They are going to have to do some major pumping, praying and finger crossing, until the relief wells are drilled.

Firseal
07-18-2010, 09:03 PM
Little I understand of this, don't they need a multiple output... system thing? That can allow pressure to be relieved from the pipes in multiple areas, rather than relying on one cap?

Sei'taer
07-18-2010, 10:36 PM
Little I understand of this, don't they need a multiple output... system thing? That can allow pressure to be relieved from the pipes in multiple areas, rather than relying on one cap?

Yes and no. The problem right now is the pressure, both from the oil and from the depth of the water and there is only one pipe. The real solution is the relief wells which is, in essence, what you are saying. When the relief wells are done and they can get the pressure down it will be much easier to permanently cap this well and move on. Think about it like this; If you tried to stick your finger over the faucet in the kitchen and stop the flow of water, it'd be pretty hard to do and you'd get wet in the process. But if you went around and turned on all the water in every sink, faucet, shower and even the outdoor stuff, you'd have a lot more success. It may not change the pressure a lot, maybe by 1/4 or 1/3, but it would probably be enough to allow you to be successful in stopping the flow in the kitchen sink.

I think the biggest fear right now is that they create a hole/crack/explosion in the sea floor that will be impossible to stop. They have to siphon off some of the oil or the consequences could be devastating, for the people working around it and for the gulf in general. Imagine a crack blowing up that is a mile long and however many feet deep in the sea floor. There would be absolutely no way to plug it until it basically ran out of oil.

They can't really use a multiple output cap because there is something like 4,000 to 6,000 psi on the cap, multiple outputs are still going to be high and it won't really change the pressure much if you have one output or 6. If they still had the full rig and all of the pressure relief systems in place then it wouldn't be a big deal, this is a whole 'nother world though.

Of course, you have to remember that a lot of this is specualtion on my part. I don't really know what kind of pressures they are dealing with, or if they have a way of burning off the methane that is creating the pressure. Either way, I wouldn't want any part of trying to get a handle on this kind of situation. If it was me, I can think of a hundred different ways I would have tried to stop the flow, but again, they may have tried all those and we just don't know it. It's a ticklish situation until they get the relief wells dug and then it's still pretty tickly until they get a permanent seal in place.

Neilbert
07-19-2010, 04:00 AM
I can't decide if I'm fascinated or I want you to never post anything about oil drilling ever again... :(

Sei'taer
07-19-2010, 07:39 AM
I can't decide if I'm fascinated or I want you to never post anything about oil drilling ever again... :(


Be fascinated. Even if we find alternative fuels, oil is still going to be a part of our daily lives for decades to come. And never forget, oil is all natural.

Davian93
07-19-2010, 08:07 AM
This is what we get for having them ignore LTT's plans and forcing him to do it alone with just the Hundred Companions. Had some of the female Aes Sedai helped, we wouldn't be having this backblast.


How long till the breaking?

yks 6nnetu hing
07-19-2010, 08:24 AM
This is what we get for having them ignore LTT's plans and forcing him to do it alone with just the Hundred Companions. Had some of the female Aes Sedai helped, we wouldn't be having this backblast.


How long till the breaking?

2012 - 4-5 months at the least, maybe a bit more than that.

Neilbert
07-19-2010, 09:05 AM
Be fascinated. Even if we find alternative fuels, oil is still going to be a part of our daily lives for decades to come. And never forget, oil is all natural.

Yes, and apparently it now must be drilled for the good of the oceans.

Sei'taer
07-19-2010, 09:13 AM
This is what we get for having them ignore LTT's plans and forcing him to do it alone with just the Hundred Companions. Had some of the female Aes Sedai helped, we wouldn't be having this backblast.


How long till the breaking?

I was reading a letter this morning from a Geo-tech engineer. His worry is that if a crack opens, the oil could be evacuated very quickly. He thinks that if the crack is large enough and if it blows open all at once, then we could see several million or even billions of gallons of oil, natural gas and just general crud blown out in a matter of minutes and then have earthquakes in the region as the sea floor tries to reset itself.

Don't know if he's a pessimist, but that's scary stuff.

From an inspectors point of view, if that cap has held this long and hasn't had any twisting, large expansion or contraction or anything else that is probably not being reported, then I think it should be ok until the wells are down. They need to leave it alone as much as possible though.

Sei'taer
07-19-2010, 09:17 AM
Yes, and apparently it now must be drilled for the good of the oceans.

For the good of the gulf at least.

Did you know there are over 3,500 wells in the gulf and only 80 something are controlled by the US?

jstarship
07-19-2010, 09:17 AM
From what I've seen on the news and photos, it seems they have limited the flow of oil to other areas by covering it with some material. Hopefully that will solve the leaking problems, but they still have to deal with the oil spill...

Davian93
07-19-2010, 09:20 AM
I was reading a letter this morning from a Geo-tech engineer. His worry is that if a crack opens, the oil could be evacuated very quickly. He thinks that if the crack is large enough and if it blows open all at once, then we could see several million or even billions of gallons of oil, natural gas and just general crud blown out in a matter of minutes and then have earthquakes in the region as the sea floor tries to reset itself.

Don't know if he's a pessimist, but that's scary stuff.

From an inspectors point of view, if that cap has held this long and hasn't had any twisting, large expansion or contraction or anything else that is probably not being reported, then I think it should be ok until the wells are down. They need to leave it alone as much as possible though.

Why can't they just pour a sh!tload of concrete on the cap like they Russians did to entomb Chernobyl?

Sei'taer
07-19-2010, 09:25 AM
Why can't they just pour a sh!tload of concrete on the cap like they Russians did to entomb Chernobyl?


Because you have to have a way to anchor the concrete in such a way that it can hold the pressure. Trying to come up with a way to explain it better than that...

Gimme a little bit to think about a good analogy.

WinespringBrother
07-19-2010, 09:27 AM
From what I've seen on the news and photos, it seems they have limited the flow of oil to other areas by covering it with some material. Hopefully that will solve the leaking problems, but they still have to deal with the oil spill...

another spammer? lol

Davian93
07-19-2010, 09:29 AM
Because you have to have a way to anchor the concrete in such a way that it can hold the pressure. Trying to come up with a way to explain it better than that...

Gimme a little bit to think about a good analogy.

Fair enough...my knowledge of such things is nearly non-existent.

Neilbert
07-19-2010, 09:46 AM
I'm just reminded during all this that when I said we should fund NOAA the general reaction was to fund NASA because warp speed is way cooler... :(

Sei'taer
07-19-2010, 10:11 AM
Fair enough...my knowledge of such things is nearly non-existent.

All I can really tell you is that it won't work. There is so much pressure that just pouring concrete on it won't do. It kind of goes back to the analogy I gave Firseal. Concrete has a lot of problems anyway, and at that depth and with that much pressure against it it just wouldn't be the best way to do it and it wouldn't do what you are asking it to do. After the relief wells are dug, it'll be fine, but until then it won't work. More than likely, once the wells are dug they'll fill the pipe with heavy drilling material and then concrete on top of that and then put on a supercap and a deadman to make sure it'll stay closed. If I think of a good way to explain it, I'll post it later.

Sei'taer
07-19-2010, 10:12 AM
I'm just reminded during all this that when I said we should fund NOAA the general reaction was to fund NASA because warp speed is way cooler... :(

Warp speed is way cooler. So are dilithium crystals.

Davian93
07-19-2010, 11:18 AM
All I can really tell you is that it won't work. There is so much pressure that just pouring concrete on it won't do. It kind of goes back to the analogy I gave Firseal. Concrete has a lot of problems anyway, and at that depth and with that much pressure against it it just wouldn't be the best way to do it and it wouldn't do what you are asking it to do. After the relief wells are dug, it'll be fine, but until then it won't work. More than likely, once the wells are dug they'll fill the pipe with heavy drilling material and then concrete on top of that and then put on a supercap and a deadman to make sure it'll stay closed. If I think of a good way to explain it, I'll post it later.


They should get some of that locktight stuff I use when I want bolts to stay on...or perhaps some superglue.

GonzoTheGreat
07-19-2010, 12:33 PM
They should get some of that locktight stuff I use when I want bolts to stay on...or perhaps some superglue.Problem is: if you superglue the very solid specially made seal to the mud on the sea bed, the pressure will simply blow the mud (with attached seal) away.

I do seem to remember from a Mythbusters episode that superglue works in sea water, though I could be wrong about that. I know that duct tape works, though it isn't really sea worthy for a long time.

Sei'taer
07-19-2010, 04:54 PM
I found out the pressure on the cap. It's 6700 psi. If that cap is one that I am familiar with, they are exceeding the psi standard spec by about 1700 psi.

I think they need to open it and relieve some of the pressure, but that's going to be tough. If they open it to quickly then it could blow off anyway and might blow up. If they don't open it and the pressure continues to build, then it could blow up anyway. My thought is to open it slightly and release some of the oil/gas into a waiting tanker and then get it the eff out of there.

I also understand that they are finding areas of seepage in the sea floor. If this is coming from the same source that the well is drilled into then we may have a problem.