Russian Bear Waking from Slumber

[Davian93]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,378065,00.html

Ballsy to be tossing threats out there at us...even in our weakened state we can whip them 10 different ways.

[Gilshalos Sedai]

Lovely. And thus begins Round 2 of the Cold War, which I keep saying never really ended.

[Sinistrum]

Well when you've suffered invasion after invasion periodically throughout your histroy you'd be a little paranoid too. Not saying its a rational move, just saying that given what I've learned of Russia history, it's a predictably Russian response.

[ShadowbaneX]

I wish I'd studied more of Russian history, but I had to drop the course when I got offered a job.

[Gilshalos Sedai]

I studied plenty of Russian history. They kinda require it when you study the language.

It is a typical Russian response. To a certain extent. However, I'm sure Putin is making it 100xs worse.

Times like this I miss Yks and her usually profane responses to all things stupid and Russian. lol

[Sinistrum]

Yeah they've gotten it from the Huns, the Avars, the Vikings, the Turks, the Mongols several times over, the Teutonic Knights, the Swedes, The Polish, the French, Most of the Western Powers after the Russian Revolution, and finally the Nazis.

[Mort]

Yeah they've gotten it from the Huns, the Avars, the Vikings, the Turks, the Mongols several times over, the Teutonic Knights, the Swedes, The Polish, the French, Most of the Western Powers after the Russian Revolution, and finally the Nazis.

So who's left? Asia, Middle-East and Africa should have a go at em too, it's only fair...

If the bear starts to move, many eyes in Sweden will be looking toward Finland's borders. If shit is going down near us, it will be there. A lot of people will curse that we've dismantled much of the defense here then. Fine, we have very good air and sea equipment, but far from enough in numbers to withstand the massive movement of the great bear.

I hope the day never comes.

Personally I think Russia will fall apart within itself before they launch a full scale attack on their neighbours. God I hope I'm right.

[Davian93]

Russian History is a hobby of mine and one of my favorite fields...yup this is completely typical. Another thing to remember about the Russian paranoia is they will act if they feel sufficiently threatened. Russians are like blackjack players...they play the odds. If it makes sense to doubledown they will do so and damn the potential consequences.

I'm guessing that Scandinavia and central Europe is crapping itself that it has disarmed so far over the past 15 years. Where's YKS when you need an on the ground appraisal?

[Rune420]

Maybe I'm forgetting something, but what happened to yks? Is she not posting anymore?

[Frenzy]

I wish I'd studied more of Russian history, but I had to drop the course when I got offered a job.
you got offered a job?!? :D

[ShadowbaneX]

back in the winter of 06, yes. Recently? No. :-\

[Uno]

But this is nothing new to those of us whose countries are neighbours to Russia. The Kremlin makes these kinds of threats all the time. I imagine it's mostly for the edification of the Russian public.

[Ishara]

In short, yks will drop by occassionally, sometimes lurks and then leaves us again. She's like a good fairy, here long enough to make us miss her when she leaves.

[Davian93]

~looks around to see if JWB is lurking~

I always miss yks...:(

[yks 6nnetu hing]

it's the Western world that has been asleep.

It is true though, Russia has gotten even more violent since the beginning of this year. They've effectively invaded Georgia and are selling or donating weapons to the Abchasian and Ossetian rebels there. Pay attention: not just politically supporting the demoition of a neighbouring country, Russia actually physically has "peace troops" in Georgia right this moment.

The whole rocket shield issue has been up for a while too, Russia was very much against it being in Poland so now there's talk of putting it in Lithuania or the Czech Republic but Russia has even more objections agains that. I don't really understand why...

The Nord Stream project, a case study in hypocricy - primarily Russian enterprise, headquarters are in switzerland and the chairman is Gerhard Schroder, the former German Chancellor!! Well, luckily the European Parliament has accepted the motion for more extensive and impartial ecological studies of the Baltic sea before allowing the project to go on. Hopefully it will be delayed for so long that Western Europe wakes up to the FACT that Russia is running out of gas to sell (that being the sole object of the project) due to lack of investments into the infrastructure in Siberia.

Plus, of course the "claiming" of the Arctic Pole. This is a territorial as well as economical and political claim. There are apparently massive natural resources unter the polar cap and otherwise, who knows, Canada, Norway, USA, Sweden, Finland or Denmark might claim it instead! and the way it was done too. Just plant a flag under water and voila! you own the Northern Pole! that's just bizarre...

but there's some good news too: some countries are taking precautionary measures. I read only today that the Swedish infamous law about forcing the phone and internet companies to share their data is mainly targeted against monitoring Russian communication, 80% (wow!) of all of Russia's telecommuncations run through Swedish cables: http://www.thelocal.se/12922/20080709/

No, the Cold War is not over. Russia is becoming more and more neocommunist with scarily rascist tendences (particularly against anyone looking to be of Asian descent, I hear). The thing is, I'm not even sure whose "fault" it is... US for focusing on Bill and Monica rather than helping Yeltsin plant the seeds of Democracy? EU for not having the spine to realize what was going on when there was a chance to change the course still? Some of the European leaders who, because of their socialistic leanings closed their eyes to the wrongs going on in Russia (Berlusconi, Schroder)? Or Russians themselves? Millions of innocent hard-working Russians who do nothing while their home country is being flushed down the toilet, all the money going to the top dogs and almost every other country starting t have serious doubts about any and all Russia-related... things.

all in all these are very sad times indeed.



oh, and hi everyone! good to know I'm missed:eek:

[Zaela Sedai]

And just like that she delivers :D

[Gilshalos Sedai]

You are definitely missed, Yks. So's Dai, but I hear he's busy. ;)


Interesting update, Yks. Did you also know Russia's made it more difficult to adopt their children now? Not quite back up to the Cold War standards, but it's harder than it was, and more expensive, too.

I don't think it was Bill and Monica that were distracting us, though that BS didn't help. I think it was the mess in Bosnia, which distracted almost all of the West.

[Sei'taer]

Thats pretty scary prediction from someone who's looking at it right there. And an incredibly in depth analysis too.

[Davian93]

I don't think it was Bill and Monica that were distracting us, though that BS didn't help. I think it was the mess in Bosnia, which distracted almost all of the West.

Ironically we cooperated on Bosnia and "ignored" very troubling internal issues in Russia and then cooperated after 9/11 because we had a common enemy. Bush giving Putin carte blanche to "deal" with his terrorism issues without imput from the UN and U.S. pretty much allowed Putin to eliminate what little democracy remained in the country. So basically this is all Bush's fault...which most things are. We allowed Russia to get back up because we had won the Cold War and didn't feel threatened. We then bankrolled the modernization of their nuclear deterrence with the SALT II and SALT III agreements (neither ever ratified by our Senate IIRC) when we bought up all their old warheads which they then promptly reinvested the saved money on new ones. We also forgave a bunch of their debt and allowed Putin to seize almost absolute power by looking the other way.

Welcome back YKS!!!:) :D :)

[Gilshalos Sedai]

THIS is what scares me more far more than global warming.


Here's a truly paranoid thought... what if Al'Quaida and their ilk are all just fronts for Russia?

[Davian93]

THIS is what scares me more far more than global warming.


Here's a truly paranoid thought... what if Al'Quaida and their ilk are all just fronts for Russia?

Nah...Russians despise disorder and Muslim extremists are a far greater threat to them than us. Even during the Cold War, most accusations made by the U.S. of Russian "terrorism" were completely unfounded and were in fact CIA planted stories.

Hopefully the Bear will turn Eastward and start a war with China who is a much bigger threat to their possessions than us or Europe. China could very easily make a grab a good chunk of Outer Manchuria (which they consider historically theirs anyway) in a conventional fight in which Russia would have no real counterstrike. The only thing that has prevented them from doing so is Russia's nukes and their willingness to use them against China.

Interesting sidenote: The current Sino/Russian border of the Amur River is quite modern and only goes back to the time of Czar Alexander III (I think) which would place it around the 1870s. Before then the border flucuated but it was much further north. Only when Russia really really wanted a warm water port that wasn't Vladivostok did they insist on a more southern border. This of course brought them into conflict with Japan (1905) over the Korean peninsula and Port Arthur in China. Japan whipped them quite soundly though.

[Gilshalos Sedai]

Yeah, but WE'RE Japan's army/navy now. ;)


So... how'd we get in this handbasket and where are we going?

[Davian93]

Yeah, but WE'RE Japan's army/navy now. ;)


So... how'd we get in this handbasket and where are we going?

Not exactly...the Japanese Defense Forces have been expanding quietly for the past decade and are among the most modern in the world. They buy all their equipment from us and have a very good Frigate based Navy and their AF while small has the latest fighters and AWACs planes. They are also working on the JSF with us. Their Army is small but very well trained (I did a couple training exercises with them back in 01 and 02). Overall Japan has been increasing their Defense spending in response to China's buildup (at least publically) and the current Administration has been pushing for a repeal of the "Pacifist amendments" in their current Constitution that forbade offensive actions.

[Uno]

Well, it was the US, not Russia, that first withdrew from the ABM Treaty, which was one of the main cornerstones of the Cold War balance of terror. Obviously, the Russians were quite upset about this, like the US would have been if Russia unilaterally decided to scrap a major arms limitations agreement.

Also, the ability of external powers to interfere in Russian internal affairs is quite limited, so it's pretty misleading to say that anyone outside of the country "allowed" Putin to concentrate virtually all real political power in the hands of the presidency. It would've been pretty hard for anyone to stop him, and any attempt to do so would probably only have served to strengthen his anti-foreign rhetoric, thus being counterproductive.

As to the thing in Ossetia, I don't think Soviet forces ever withdrew from that region, so that's a continuing Russian military presence, not a completely new development. Russia tends to see its more or less open support of the Ossetian separatists as analogous to NATO's intervention in Kosovo. I suppose you could say that's a valid argument, although Russia's had it out for Georgia since that country seceded from the Soviet Union.

As to the threat to use "military-technical means," I imagine that refers to redeployment of missiles to target European countries (Russia made that threat during the negotiations to extend the so-called missile shield to cover Ukraine), as well as to the ongoing Russian efforts to develop long-range missiles invulnerable to current anti-ballistic technology. Medvedev, at least, made it pretty clear that his comments referred to defensive measures, not to an actual military attack.

In sum, there's nothing very radical about this latest development, as Russia's been flexing its muscles for years now. I take it you all noticed the resumption of strategic nuclear bomber flights earlier this year?

[Davian93]

So... how'd we get in this handbasket and where are we going?

We were asleep at the wheel for about 10 years after we won the Cold War...all of the Clinton years where we let our military dwindle to half its previous size for example. I wrote a really good paper on it back in college about that and the increase in political infighting that has led to the current stagnation. I got an A on it.

[John Snow]

Ouch! "Port Arthur in China"

It's for most of its history in Korea, not China. But, realities of being caught between two big, imperialist countries......

[Davian93]

so it's pretty misleading to say that anyone outside of the country "allowed" Putin to concentrate virtually all real political power in the hands of the presidency. It would've been pretty hard for anyone to stop him, and any attempt to do so would probably only have served to strengthen his anti-foreign rhetoric, thus being counterproductive.

Well we could have said something but Bush needed Putin for his own aggresive policies and their plans dovetailed into an Alliance of Convenience. Economic pressures could have been used to prevent a collapse into Neo Communism. (nice phrase BTW yks.)

I suppose you could say that's a valid argument, although Russia's had it out for Georgia since that country seceded from the Soviet Union.

Their increased presence in the area is also in response to a huge increase in US influence across the southern arc of Muslim states in the former USSR. Our arrival after 9/11 in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan etc really brought it home to the Russians that dreadful feeling of encirclement. When you consider that we also pushed NATO 800 miles further east when we expanded into Poland, the Balkans, and SE Europe, it simply magnifies that feeling.

Medvedev, at least, made it pretty clear that his comments referred to defensive measures, not to an actual military attack.

The question becomes what does the U.S/NATO do to respond to their defensive shift? We've been focusing on expanding NATO eastward and into smaller but more numerous US bases in eastern Europe as our "front" moves away from Germany. This is in response to that and our missile shield. It will be intersting to see if the US makes an adjustment in kind.

In sum, there's nothing very radical about this latest development, as Russia's been flexing its muscles for years now. I take it you all noticed the resumption of strategic nuclear bomber flights earlier this year?

Yup...I think I even posted a thread about it on Yuku. All that has done is force the US to spend more money on its own flights and an increased fighter presence along avenues of approach over the Pole. I wouldn't be stunned to see a couple of mothballed SAC bases get reopened at some point in the next 5 years. Considering that AFBs like Loring (maine) Plattsburgh (NY) Rome (NY) and Otis (MA)went under after the Cold War the US has a very meager presence along the northern half of the country where those bombers would come in during a nuclear strike. All were SAC oriented bases that had no purpose in the new peace and were then expendible.

[Davian93]

Ouch! "Port Arthur in China"

It's for most of its history in Korea, not China. But, realities of being caught between two big, imperialist countries......

Well it was in China when the Russians wanted it.:)

[yks 6nnetu hing]

http://russophobe.blogspot.com/ is a blog on all the bad things going on in Russia. Obviously, it's wise to take everything there with a grain of salt but I've so far found the stuff relatively sane and sober. Tend to skim it every now and then.

Are you serious Dav? Russians do SO not like order, they like their paperwork and bribes. That's not exactly order. Was't it just a few weeks ago that I saw in the news... don't remember who again, probably some American big politician saying that if Russia keeps up with the ridiculous economical.... er... practices, then western comanies will eventually pull out. It doesn't matter how big your potential growth margins are, if odds are 70:30 that you'll lose your money and company to the Russian state then yu probably don't want to keep your eggs in that particular basket.


anyways... you know. Russia is happily commiting suicide actually, the natural (and immigration-related) population decrease is dramatic. If they keep this up, the country will be empty in a few decades and China will have more space for all the lovely little Chinese babies :)

[Uno]

Yup...I think I even posted a thread about it on Yuku. All that has done is force the US to spend more money on its own flights and an increased fighter presence along avenues of approach over the Pole. I wouldn't be stunned to see a couple of mothballed SAC bases get reopened at some point in the next 5 years. Considering that AFBs like Loring (maine) Plattsburgh (NY) Rome (NY) and Otis (MA)went under after the Cold War the US has a very meager presence along the northern half of the country where those bombers would come in during a nuclear strike. All were SAC oriented bases that had no purpose in the new peace and were then expendible.

Speaking for myself, I never agreed with the decision of Norwegian politicians to abandon the goal of having a military capable of providing territorial defence of the country, but anyone who asserts the importance of that goal gets accused of being a dinosaur still fighting the Cold War. Our domestic military now functions more or less exclusively as a training camp for "international operations," that is, to supply small, highly trained units to fight in Afghanistan. The ministry of defence and the commanding general have made it quite clear that they don't think there is any threat to sovereignty of our country, and are more or less openly scornful of the entire reserve officer corps, the backbone of the old military system.

The problem is that while scaling down the size of your military is very easy, building it back up after more than a decade of neglect is hard and time consuming, and has got to be done well in advance of a new emergency situation.

[Gilshalos Sedai]

Guess our children will be waging a war we were too lazy to deal with.

[Davian93]

Are you serious Dav? Russians do SO not like order, they like their paperwork and bribes. That's not exactly order.

To them that is order...for the same reasons democracy has never caught on for them. They have no history of political give and take...authoritarian leadership has always prevailed in their country. Their "paperwork and bribes" is their order. Terrorism and the Russian persona don't really mix. At least that's my opinion. :)

[Davian93]

The problem is that while scaling down the size of your military is very easy, building it back up after more than a decade of neglect is hard and time consuming, and has got to be done well in advance of a new emergency situation.

Perfect example of this: Plattsburgh AFB was a major installation during the Cold War and it had one of the longest runways in the country (It was even a backup landing place for the Space Shuttle). Now the Base and half the airfield dont exist as the land was completley sold off to private developers. Otis is still there (though its merely a Coast Guard base now) but Loring is maybe a Air Guard base...(no active fighters) and Rome is inactive as well. The closest active deterrent force would be at McGwire, NJ, Dover DE, and Langley VA. for the NE. There are some Air Guard F-16's in Vermont, NH, and ME but that's not the same thing. No bomber bases left here. They're all at Guam, Minot and Mountain Home, ID. NE USA kinda bare to say the least.

[Uno]

In comparison, Norway doesn't actually have a functioning navy, as the only operative long-range vessel is an old submarine. For all practical purposes, the coastguard is now alone in asserting sovereignty in our territorial waters.

The airforce consists of a handful of outdated F-16s that may or may not at any given time be ready to scramble, depending on whether or not they're in the shop that day.

The standing army is now so tiny that a couple of weeks ago a former ministry of defence official said it was a matter of definition whether you could say that the country even has an operative army.

That leaves the reserve, the stepchild of the military, which is completely underfunded and hardly ever has the opportunity to train. It's increasingly also demoralized at the levels of lower and middle level leadership, as the attitude emanating from the high muckity-mucks is that reserve officers are just a bunch of pathetic would-be warriors that have no place in a military intended in the main to participate in foreign conflicts. No one actually says that, of course, as the notion of a popular military still has substantial support among the electorate, but it's pretty obvious that that's what a lot of the generals think.

[Gilshalos Sedai]

Soooo, the Vikings are really extinct, then. ;)

[Mort]

Soooo, the Vikings are really extinct, then. ;)
Just changed venue my dear. We sell arms now, we don't act in wars much :) If you don't count all the foreign troops we have out and about.

Hey Uno... I think I read somewhere that Norway is thinking of buying our pretty little Jas 39 Griphons, at least they have been "window shopping" I think. So has several other countries, I think business for war is still going strong...

Talk about being a neutral country :)

[Ivhon]

THIS is what scares me more far more than global warming.


Here's a truly paranoid thought... what if Al'Quaida and their ilk are all just fronts for Russia?

*Passes Gil a nice, warm tinfoil hat...even has beer coolies on the side*

[Sinistrum]

Just because she's paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get her.

[yks 6nnetu hing]

http://russophobe.blogspot.com/2008/07/russia-is-closed-for-business-america.html

NOW what do you say about Russians liking "order"?

[Gilshalos Sedai]

I think it's time for me to brush up on my Russian and apply to the CIA.