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Res_Ipsa
11-16-2010, 12:53 AM
I will update this at need and any pertinent info:
At the end of ToM the Lights forces are gathered. They are all gathered for the Dragons proposal and are separated into Egwene's and Rand's camps.

It would be safe to say the light has gathered in one spot 1million soldiers.

At Mellilor

5-10k farmers, undoubtedly more unknown forces will arrive answering the Dragons need.

70k+-Perrin

250k Borderlanders, they have arrived at Mellilor which gives strong evidence that Rand knows where the main battle outside of his own will be fought instead of trying to preserve the Borderlands.

Andor&Cairhien- 100k-300k Part of Andors strength is bottled up in Caemlyn so assuming
Cairhien can field 100k and Andor 200k anywhere in between is a safe guess.

Tar Valon -100k+ Egwene notes that Bryne's forces had filled extremely quickly in the last few weeks leading up to the meet and greet.

Aiel- 100-200k~ depending on how many were left in Illian as well as Arad Doman the Aiel still should constitute a massive force

Tear-100-150k Darlin has been organizing forces for a long time and does not have the Seanchan on his border currently

Illian - 50k~ with the Seanchan practically at Illian proper their contribution would seem limited

Channelers - 2500 or less. Friendly Aes Sedai and all new novices plus loyal Asha'man.


In Seanchan controlled Randland
Tuon in her sole pov in ToM has indicated she is massing all her forces for an assault on Tar Valon. She is gathering in all Damane who can go on the assault. Conservative estimates of Seanchan forces including now friendly Tarabon, Amadicians, Altarans, etc are 500k even with current losses. Currently poised on Illian's doorstep as well as pushing into Arad Doman.

Channelers -2000~ despite losses in campaigns against Arad Doman and Rand in the South the gain of several hundred Wise One channelers has offset many of those losses.

Unknowns
Athan Miere - while a maritime force their channelers have little proclivity in using the one power.

Murandy - probable seat of Demandred and strategically located.

Ogier - while probable to definite they will fight in TG anything is possible.

Shara - the big red herring of the series, we have been given tastes throughout the series that make us want to think they will play some role.





How TG will play out

Rand is leaving in a day to go to SG. The borderlands are overrun. The Lights forces are centrally located. The Seanchan so far are antagonistic and aggressive still refusing to align with Rand and co.

I believe the assault will come against Tar Valon Primarily from the north where trollics perhaps as many or more then 10million have descended. During the Trollic Wars the forces of the Light were routinely outnumbered 10x plus. An additional force described as massive by Verin is assaulting Caemlyn, current status unknown. Caemlyn being the housing area of Aludra's Dragons it holds a strategic importance. I believe Caemlyn's loss is fait accompli and will serve to hold the forces of light in a vice effectively cutting them off as they move north to Tar Valon.

You might ask why in the age of traveling this is important? Well the forces of light wont neatly fit into Tar Valon and maneuver will be key to offset the large Dark forces. By pressing from both sides Tar Valon will be pressed into a vise.

In comes the Seanchan who will no doubt travel to Tar Valon as it is under seige. Since their Damane cannot link if they desire to move forces in bulk they will have to use side by side Gateways. How this will play out is anyones guess but this is how I believe the major confrontation of the Lights and Darks forces will come to be.

I uncluded a map which I have shown a general idea of how things are standing and how TG will be prosecuted.

http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/7559/tarmongaidon.jpg (http://img51.imageshack.us/i/tarmongaidon.jpg/)

jana
11-16-2010, 01:28 AM
it would be pretty great if while everyone's relaxing at the Field of Merrilor the Seanchan are defending the White Tower from the bad guys.

Rand al'Fain
11-16-2010, 01:55 AM
it would be pretty great if while everyone's relaxing at the Field of Merrilor the Seanchan are defending the White Tower from the bad guys.

Irony at it's greatest. Though, depending on the size of the hoarde, it may end up devastating a good part of the Seanchan army there as probably not a one of them has EVER faced a trolloc or other various darkspawn.

Oneirist
11-16-2010, 02:09 AM
The Windfinders are seemingly unsurpassed in their ability to manipulate the weather, and now they've had Aes Sedai tutoring and combat experience in fighting the Seanchan at Ebou Dar. I can't believe that they'd be left out of the Last Battle.

Can't forget the Wise Ones, either.

And since there definitely looks to be a Battle of Caemlyn/Camlann coming, I think Caemlyn will figure much more prominently than that. I always got a Mordred vibe from Demandred, far more so than from Mordeth or Moridin, and his lurking around the Royal Palace back in LoC makes me strongly suspect that's going to be his battleground.

Andrac
11-16-2010, 02:37 AM
I think some of those numbers are off. I don't think andor has 200k soldiers. Even if they took every single person, and they would have had to leave some behind, that still seems way higher then I would expect. I would also think the aiel would be over 200k. The shaido were the largest tribe I believe and they had over a 100k I think themselves. The other 11 combined have to have over 200k. That or the wetlanders are just REALLY terrible fighters and they are doomed in the last battle.

All I hope for the last battle is that the aiel are finally bumped back up to their true fighting potential and devestate trolloc armies left and right. They have been severely reduced in their fighting ability since crossing the spine of the world. Rand was talking about how during the aiel war four clans crossed the spine and went all the way to tar valon and were never beaten, they just decided to go home on their own. He brings 11 clans over and......they haven't really done anything that impressive. We keep reading how awsome they are and they can do this and that, but we don't actually get to see it. They are modertly better fighters then the wetlanders thus far. Its really dissapointing.

GonzoTheGreat
11-16-2010, 05:06 AM
Perhaps the Shadow will move the Dreamspike from the BT to the Field of Merrilor. That way, much of the forces of the Light, including most of its channelers, would be trapped there for hours or longer, while TG started. This could cause quite a lot of chaos, with everyone suspecting the AS of foul play.

gholam
11-16-2010, 05:15 AM
Irony at it's greatest. Though, depending on the size of the hoarde, it may end up devastating a good part of the Seanchan army there as probably not a one of them has EVER faced a trolloc or other various darkspawn.

We have tylee and her men who faced a trolloc attack in TGS

WinespringBrother
11-16-2010, 08:46 AM
Perhaps the Shadow will move the Dreamspike from the BT to the Field of Merrilor. That way, much of the forces of the Light, including most of its channelers, would be trapped there for hours or longer, while TG started. This could cause quite a lot of chaos, with everyone suspecting the AS of foul play.

Perrin is at the FOM though. He will tell them if this is the case what is causing it and how to fix. And between him and Egwene and Rand, they could easily defeat Slayer once and for all if he showed his face.

Also, if that Trolloc invasion is heading to Tar Valon, they will be passing the FOM on the way. Or at least passing to the side of it, and hopefully someone has scouts out watching the trails from Tarwin's Gap. Rand's forces know that Trollocs are planning to visit soon.

GonzoTheGreat
11-16-2010, 08:55 AM
Also, if that Trolloc invasion is heading to Tar Valon, they will be passing the FOM on the way. Or at least passing to the side of it, and hopefully someone has scouts out watching the trails from Tarwin's Gap. Rand's forces know that Trollocs are planning to visit soon.The Trollocs attacking the WT will probably come out of the Waygate that Liandrin used in TGH. If the AS were competent, they would have that one guarded properly.
Now, should I assume they are sufficiently competent? Difficult one, this.

WinespringBrother
11-16-2010, 08:58 AM
The Trollocs attacking the WT will probably come out of the Waygate that Liandrin used in TGH. If the AS were competent, they would have that one guarded properly.
Now, should I assume they are sufficiently competent? Difficult one, this.

I wouldn't count on their competence, though they do have Gareth Bryne running things now, and we know he has been scouting the area, so he may be aware of that little "loophole". But then again, using a tiny waygate to transport a humongous army would kind of balance out the incompetence levels there, maybe tipping the scales to the White Tower in this battle.

Terez
11-16-2010, 10:54 AM
@Res - nice sig. I was just thinking about that quote the other day, partly because I was lamenting the loss of Elyas. Not because he went away, but because Brandon doesn't seem to have put much effort into capturing his personality. Not that I necessarily think he should have; he's only got so much time to study before writing.

GonzoTheGreat
11-16-2010, 11:03 AM
But then again, using a tiny waygate to transport a humongous army would kind of balance out the incompetence levels there, maybe tipping the scales to the White Tower in this battle.I dunno about that. It is working well in Caemlyn, isn't it? And Elayne had actual advance warning of the approach of such a bunch of Trollocs, which is more than Egwene got.

WinespringBrother
11-16-2010, 11:13 AM
I dunno about that. It is working well in Caemlyn, isn't it? And Elayne had actual advance warning of the approach of such a bunch of Trollocs, which is more than Egwene got.

I would hope that someone thought to ward the Tar Valon waygate. Or at least block it off once they discover Shadowspawn are pouring through. And Tar Valon isn't such a far march from the Borderlands as Caemlyn is, as a fallback if the Waygate is blocked up/destroyed. I'm thinking they would need a larger force for Tar Valon, as well.

Plus, Egwene can use the invasion of Caemlyn as a warning (assuming she finds out about it, which hopefully she will).

Res_Ipsa
11-16-2010, 12:12 PM
Yeah I forgot about the Aiel channelers which would be important. But they fall into a larger problem with the Aiel as numbers. Consider when in tFoH Rand was chasing the Shaido who had huge numbers which would indicate they are the largest clan of the Aiel, not to mention many channelers. Numbers were never solidly identified to be able to gauge the rest of the clans beyond they, the Shaido had enough spears to make sure Rand's forces could not simply eradicate them. I know some of what they gained were Aiel who would not except Rand as the Caracarn. I think as an answer to some of that that the Shaido took their whole clan west as opposed to the rest of the clans who left enough in the waste to guard the holds which would account for the disparity of strength but numbers are still dodgy.

missbee
11-16-2010, 02:48 PM
Are you saying that Rand has abandoned his battle plan from TGS then?
(ch44 - big strike force gates to SG while Bashere with support picks off invading trolloc armies from the rear once they get through Tarwin's Gap )
The Borderlanders are not at FoM, neither is Bashere, though granted, they may be following Rand and his bubble of sunshine.
Mat's POV in ch 52 says that Rand camped the night somewhere before arriving at ToM, so I've assumed he's delivered the Borderlanders into place and is coordinating with Bashere, whilst the majority of people at FoM are bound for SG.
Caemlyn and TV attacks will change all that of course

Res_Ipsa
11-16-2010, 09:52 PM
Are you saying that Rand has abandoned his battle plan from TGS then?
(ch44 - big strike force gates to SG while Bashere with support picks off invading trolloc armies from the rear once they get through Tarwin's Gap )
The Borderlanders are not at FoM, neither is Bashere, though granted, they may be following Rand and his bubble of sunshine.
Mat's POV in ch 52 says that Rand camped the night somewhere before arriving at ToM, so I've assumed he's delivered the Borderlanders into place and is coordinating with Bashere, whilst the majority of people at FoM are bound for SG.
Caemlyn and TV attacks will change all that of course

Rand is surrounded by Borderlanders at the FoM. I feel that it is all of their forces. I believe it is perrin in the wolf dream that remarks on this at the end.

Rand al'Fain
11-16-2010, 10:02 PM
We have tylee and her men who faced a trolloc attack in TGS
And that is about the only experience that the Seanchan forces will have. Plus Tylee's troops were about, 12,000 right? One has to assume that her forces took quite a few casualties (might have said so in the book), reducing the number substantially. This would especially ring true since no Seanchan has ever even faced Trollocs up to this point (in recent history) as most (Tuon included) assumed them to be nothing more than fairytales.

missbee
11-17-2010, 05:03 AM
Rand is surrounded by Borderlanders at the FoM. I feel that it is all of their forces. I believe it is perrin in the wolf dream that remarks on this at the end.

Where? There are no Borderlanders in the wolf dream in the Epilogue, if that's what you mean. There are no Borderlanders when Perrin arrives at FoM and there are no Borderlanders when Elayne meets Egwene.

Both Perrin and Mat have visions of Rand talking to Borderlanders and to people in tents during that big, unaccounted for gap in Rand's timeline.
There are other hints from Lan's and Elayne's bonds that Rand's been busy off-screen too.
It makes no sense for the Borderlanders to sit at FoM when their homes are overrun already. I think Rand will stick to his original plan, he doesn't need them at FoM.

skaywalker
11-17-2010, 05:12 AM
Where? There are no Borderlanders in the wolf dream in the Epilogue, if that's what you mean. There are no Borderlanders when Perrin arrives at FoM and there are no Borderlanders when Elayne meets Egwene.


No, the borderlanders are there. Read the epilogue again ;)


...No, this was one of his own ordinary dreams. He controlled them now. They were a place he could find peace to think, protected by wards while his body slept beside Min in their new camp, surrounded by Borderlanders, set up on the Field of Merrilor. Egwene was there, with armies marshaled. He was ready for that....

missbee
11-17-2010, 05:40 AM
Ok, found it, finally. I'd re-read that twice without noticing. Thanks :D

Now I'm confused - hordes of trollocs rampaging through the Borderlands and they abandon their plan for dealing with them to sit and chat for a couple of days? I can't make myself believe that nothing is being done about it so I'm going to speculate that he has some Borderland representatives with him and has sent the rest off to fight :p

morat'corlm
11-17-2010, 06:04 AM
I'm not at all certain Caemlyn's loss is a fait accompli, particularly given how much Mat mentioned how the Inner City and Palace could hold out on their own. I suppose that depends on the Kin holding off the Black Ajah and/or Asha'man channelers in the city (all those Silver Swan references have to mean something, I'd think, but for certain Falion and Marrillin and whomever they're to meet, along with the channelers probably shepherding the Trollocs through the Ways to protect them from Machin Shin), though, which is a fairly dismal hope.

As for Tar Valon, I don't buy it. The Tower remains in Aes Sedai hands when Egwene leaves, which is at most a few days before Merrilor, correct? Even if the Seanchan attack on the day of the meeting, there is no time for Trollocs to get there from the Borderlands or Caemlyn except by Waygate (on the Tower grounds! I bet that wasn't touched by Karldin and Loial) or Portal Stone. Afoot, that's a journey of a week or more even at extremely/unrealistically high speed.

The numbers of Aiel were last expressed in TFOH42, though that was nearly a year ago and their losses to Bleakness attrition and in the relatively minor battles since are unknown, as is their location for the last several books (are they in Illian? In Tear? In Arad Doman? In the Borderlands?). The same goes for the Legion of the Dragon.

skaywalker
11-17-2010, 06:23 AM
And given the fact that the Aiel are the greatest army in the world, how can't there be a mention of their whereabouts? I mean there are 11 clans out there. The Shaido alone were more than 100,000 spears. So these 11 clans easily can be at least 600,000 strong.

GonzoTheGreat
11-17-2010, 08:12 AM
Maybe Moridin ate them all. That could have been his secret plan all along. If so, it worked amazingly well.

Res_Ipsa
11-17-2010, 11:59 AM
I'm not at all certain Caemlyn's loss is a fait accompli, particularly given how much Mat mentioned how the Inner City and Palace could hold out on their own. I suppose that depends on the Kin holding off the Black Ajah and/or Asha'man channelers in the city (all those Silver Swan references have to mean something, I'd think, but for certain Falion and Marrillin and whomever they're to meet, along with the channelers probably shepherding the Trollocs through the Ways to protect them from Machin Shin), though, which is a fairly dismal hope.

As for Tar Valon, I don't buy it. The Tower remains in Aes Sedai hands when Egwene leaves, which is at most a few days before Merrilor, correct? Even if the Seanchan attack on the day of the meeting, there is no time for Trollocs to get there from the Borderlands or Caemlyn except by Waygate (on the Tower grounds! I bet that wasn't touched by Karldin and Loial) or Portal Stone. Afoot, that's a journey of a week or more even at extremely/unrealistically high speed.

The numbers of Aiel were last expressed in TFOH42, though that was nearly a year ago and their losses to Bleakness attrition and in the relatively minor battles since are unknown, as is their location for the last several books (are they in Illian? In Tear? In Arad Doman? In the Borderlands?). The same goes for the Legion of the Dragon.

I don't believe the Seanchan will attack on the day of the meeting. I believe they will be training the damane as well as soldiers going to Tar Valon for a bit more.

The Legion of the Dragon is a fine point. Elayne put them as well as the Saldean Horse and the Goshien outside in camps, well Bael and Bashere are gone but we have no idea about the legion.

Uno
11-17-2010, 01:52 PM
Well, I just picture the Last Battle a bit like the ending to Blazing Saddles.

Belazamon
11-17-2010, 02:36 PM
"Piss on you! I'm working for Brandon Sanderson."

Uno
11-17-2010, 02:47 PM
"Piss on you! I'm working for Brandon Sanderson."

Right. A bunch of half-men in top hats singing "You'll be surprised. You're doing the Domani Mistake!! VOILA!!