BS's projected progress on AMoL

[Marie Curie 7]

I thought this was sort of cool...I found it at Encyclopaedia WoT (http://www.encyclopaedia-wot.org/books/amol/index.html) when I was hunting for something else. Based on BS's statements of how many words he plans to write in a given time frame, and also on the completion bar that BS posts on his web site, the Encyclopaedia has made some projections on the completion of the first draft.

http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o71/mariecurie7/amolprogress.gif

Based on the current projections, he's going to overshoot his target date of December 2008 by one or two months or so....

[Terez]

Marie has a graph fetish. :D

[Mort]

Marie has a graph fetish. :D

I thought this was establised months back? :)
If it isn't in a graph, it isn't real! :D

[GonzoTheGreat]

I do notice that the graph assumes BS won't waste time with any vacations or such. I suppose that's commendable, or something like that.

[4Alethinos]

Is my memory correct in that Brandon is working on parts that have the least amount of material left behind by RJ?

If that is the case, then the progress will not be linear as the chart suggests. It will speed up at the end due to the confluence of previously written material and material substantiated and contributed by the notes.

"Oh well, cheer up it may get worse." :eek:

[Davian93]

So we're talking non-linear equations at that point...

Beyond my math expertise.

[JSUCamel]

I think that just because RJ has already written parts of it doesn't mean that BS is going to be able to skip those parts. I think he's going to have to rework a lot of it, even though he says he won't. At the very least, basic editing and such.

Also, like Gonzo said, this seems to indicate that he won't take vacations or holidays, so I'd push it back even further. Probably March or April before he finishes.

[Mort]

Is my memory correct in that Brandon is working on parts that have the least amount of material left behind by RJ?


BS has said that his estimate is that it needs to be 400k (was that it?) words to be written. It doesn't include what RJ already have written so it should be more or less linear, but that is as Gonzo said, probably not counting vacations and other stuff like Cons etc. Overall it will probably be linear but very zigzaggy/jagged.

[irerancincpkc]

As long as he does a good job, he can take as long as he likes. Though I would perfer it to be on the quick side...:D

[GonzoTheGreat]

Let's hope that he takes as much time as he needs, but no(t much) longer.

[Marie Curie 7]

Marie has a graph fetish. :D
And it's even more fun when I get to mix WoT and graphs together. :p I'm just disappointed that I didn't collect the data so I could regraph it myself...the Encyclopaedia graph is kind of hard to read.

BS has already tried to account for time he'll be away and not able to write the planned 10K per week. For example, he didn't get anything done for a week or so while grading final papers (and you can see that sort of thing reflected in the graph). He's planned time away this fall to attend a couple conventions and work on his own stuff...here's what he says in a recent blog:

Back to AMoL!
Posted on 07.11.08

Warbreaker 6.0 is done! I worked on it a good ten hours today, and managed to push through to the ending. I'm too tired right now to post it, but I'll get it up early next week. The revision took a little longer than I would have wanted--almost three weeks--but it feels very good to have it done and off the plate.

That leaves only a couple of impending time-stealers from AMOL. I'll need to do draft work on Alcatraz Three sometime in September, though that should be VERY quick. (It's one fifth the size of Warbreaker, and there is a lot less to do on it.) I'll also need to do the copyedit for Warbreaker; that should come sometime in November, and should take me about a week. Other than that, there are two convention visits (Worldcon and Dragon*con) and the book tour in October that will be bumps in the road. However, I'm confident that I can get a good chunk more written before Worldcon even arrives.

Next on the plate is to do a couple solid drafts on the 25% of AMOL which I've finished. I need to get it into a state that Harriet can look at and send it too her as soon as possible, as this chunk threatens to be the one that could need the most revisions. How well she thinks I did on these pages will be a very good barometer of how much draft work I'll have to do on the entire book once it's complete.

However, I do intend to divide my time between that revision and--occasionally--dipping into writing some new words. So the percentage bar should start moving again next week, if slowly at first while I spend a lot of time drafting.

[lurk]

So we're talking non-linear equations at that point...

Beyond my math expertise.


Soo do we use the linear graph or any non linear one to calculate when to do the next reread? :p

[Sodas]

Blah. Who needs a graph?

Step 1 : Write

Step 2 : ???

Step 3 : Profit

[Marie Curie 7]

Brandon is slacking a bit relative to his projected finish date for the first draft. :) As of today, the AMoL progress bar stands at 32%. So, I took the Encyclopaedia progress graph, added today's point (as closely as I could, given the resolution of the graph), and you can see how the progress has slowed relative to either of the projections for completion.

http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o71/mariecurie7/amolprogress-2.gif