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Juan
07-21-2011, 11:01 PM
I thought about this and I don't recall a thread discussing this, so here are my thoughts:

We know he's been ordered to causing chaos... One of the most chaotic events and groups that we have seen has been the Dragonsworn under the Prophet. Perhaps a Darkfriend, perhaps not, I'll admit I actually think he was clean. I do believe, however, that Demandred placed compulsion on him to make him as he was. This caused quite a bit of chaos--- the whole prophet and dragonsworn thing. I'm thinking he likely placed compulsion on Aram as well, since he was close to Perrin and Faile. And if he attempted to kill Perrin, which he did, then great. If not, not a big deal, Aram is unimportant anyway.

Also while having these thoughts I wondered if he's been instilling these sorts of divisions in other groups. Like the Children of the Light and their whole division episode. And how about the White Tower split. And the Black tower for that matter. Then there's Andor and it's civil war, although that makes sense that it would occur for political reasons due to Morgase's disappearance and Gabiel's death, he might have still played a hand in that. If so, he's been quite effective at causing chaos and dividing these groups/entities.

Kimon
07-21-2011, 11:36 PM
I thought about this and I don't recall a thread discussing this, so here are my thoughts:

We know he's been ordered to causing chaos... One of the most chaotic events and groups that we have seen has been the Dragonsworn under the Prophet. Perhaps a Darkfriend, perhaps not, I'll admit I actually think he was clean. I do believe, however, that Demandred placed compulsion on him to make him as he was. This caused quite a bit of chaos--- the whole prophet and dragonsworn thing. I'm thinking he likely placed compulsion on Aram as well, since he was close to Perrin and Faile. And if he attempted to kill Perrin, which he did, then great. If not, not a big deal, Aram is unimportant anyway.



This actually has been discussed in some detail Juan, though there is no seeming consensus on who The Fake Rand was that was visiting and issuing orders to the Prophet. Masema seemed to be clean in the sense of not being a DF, but he was crazy, and seemingly taking false orders from someone masquerading as the Dragon - unless his Dragon was just a bout of schizophrenia, possible, but manipulation makes more sense. Graendal, Aran'gar, and Demandred are all possibilities, but it might just have been Masuri and Annoura. It need not be compulsion however, the signs of zealotry are already there in TDR, alongside the confusion that came from Rand's abrupt departure. His fake Rand might have used actual compulsion on him, but it likely wasn't necessary, since a mundane command, or even a simple suggestion would likely suffice.

JOS
07-21-2011, 11:48 PM
The Lord of Chaos, Epilogue:The Answer: Demandred knelt in the Pit of Doom, and for once he did not care that Shaidar Haran watched his trembling with that eyeless, impassive gaze. "Have I not done well, Great Lord?" The Great Lord's laughter filled Demandred's head.

He must have done something right. Demandred is supposed to be a bad dude, and he has been almost invisible. I think that has his signature is all over the various groups of dragon-sworn throughout RL. We know "the dragon" appeared to the prophet a few times, do we have any quotes from RJ that say it was Demandred? I am sure many of the other divisions can be attributed to him also.

It wasn't long after Demandred's successful report back to the DO on chaos that Moridin enters the scene starts taking things over, but chaos remains a driving theme for the Forsaken and even Shadair Haran. It seems the Lord of Chaos is the DO, and part of the reason Demandred hasn't been knocked down a notch like other Forsaken is because of his Chaotic Works. After "Lord of Chaos" there are specific mentions of chaos in Ghealdan, Amadicia, Tarabon, Cairhien, Arad Doman, Andor, and The White Tower. Some of these could be new works, but I think a lot of it is residual chaos stemming from Demandred's previous efforts. After all, he has a rule to secure prior to TG and has to get organized.

One can't spend all of their time spreading chaos with a war to plan.

Kimon
07-22-2011, 12:02 AM
He must have done something right. Demandred is supposed to be a bad dude, and he has been almost invisible. I think that has his signature is all over the various groups of dragon-sworn throughout RL. We know "the dragon" appeared to the prophet a few times, do we have any quotes from RJ that say it was Demandred? I am sure many of the other divisions can be attributed to him also.

It wasn't long after Demandred's successful report back to the DO on chaos that Moridin enters the scene starts taking things over, but chaos remains a driving theme for the Forsaken and even Shadair Haran. It seems the Lord of Chaos is the DO, and part of the reason Demandred hasn't been knocked down a notch like other Forsaken is because of his Chaotic Works. After "Lord of Chaos" there are specific mentions of chaos in Ghealdan, Amadicia, Tarabon, Cairhien, Arad Doman, Andor, and The White Tower. Some of these could be new works, but I think a lot of it is residual chaos stemming from Demandred's previous efforts. After all, he has a rule to secure prior to TG and has to get organized.

One can't spend all of their time spreading chaos with a war to plan.

The signs that Masema had a few screws loose were long there, but we don't actually hear about his visions until the prologue of TGS, where the fake Rand orders him to kill Perrin.

Here are the BS comments on it:

HBFFerreira on Twitter - 15 August 2010 4:04 am
Masema: was he being manipulated by a Forsaken from the start? His dealings with Suroth, and him not wanting to go to Rand?
Brandon - 16 August 6:57 am
Masema was not manipulated from the start, but once he was noticed as a potentially useful tool.
HBFFerreira - 1:36 pm
Both his dealings with Suroth and his mistrust of Perrin in The Path of Daggers were Forsaken-induced, right?
Brandon - 17 August 12:26 am
Influenced at the least. Depends on how you view induced.

The Gathering Storm Book Tour, Powell's Books, Portland, OR 19 November 2009 - Matrimony Cauthon reporting

Someone asked if Sanderson could reveal who was behind the visions that Masema was having. Sanderson basically said that there definitely was someone involved with Masema having visions-- he did not provide any further details other than to say that Masema's visions weren't just from Masema being crazy.

JOS
07-22-2011, 12:10 AM
Forgot about this quote from Brandon:

From Tamyrlin ToM book signing:

Matt: This has to do with the Luckers’ Shiny Dragon theory. Masema mentions having a vision, someone tells him to kill Perrin. So, my question, was the individual telling him to kill Perrin a male or female?

Brandon: He saw a male.

Matt: He did, but was the individual a male or a female?

Brandon: (Laughs appreciatively and pauses)

Brandon: Yes, yes he was a male or a female.

Matt: (Laughs) Was the individual a male?

Brandon: (Thoughtful, deep intake of breath, pause)

Matt: …as classically defined by his physical…(laughter)

Brandon: (Says, yes I get what you are asking)…

Matt: ...I’ll say it this way, does this individual have the soul of a man or a woman?

Brandon: mmmhmm. (pauses looking up for a good twenty or thirty seconds)

Brandon: Female.

Matt: Excellent.

Of course, there could be multiple shiny dragons . . .

Kimon
07-22-2011, 12:25 AM
Forgot about this quote from Brandon:



Of course, there could be multiple shiny dragons . . .

So much for Demandred and Aran'gar.

Of course, that still leaves at least Graendal, Annoura, Masuri, Cyndane, and Moghedien as suspects for his fake Rand.

FelixPax
07-22-2011, 01:05 AM
So much for Demandred and Aran'gar.

Of course, that still leaves at least Graendal, Annoura, Masuri, Cyndane, and Moghedien as suspects for his fake Rand.

Moghedien was the controller of Masema in Samara, when Nynaeve met the Prophet.

That's how Moghedien knew where to find Nynaeve, Elayne, Birgitte later on, in Samara. Moghedien set-up both Nicola, Areina Nermasiv to spy on them.


Moghedien was one to set-up chaos in Ghealdan, via the Prophet Masema.


There is only the Lord Dragon and the Light! All else is illusion, a snare set by the Shadow!”

The Fires of Heaven, Chapter 39 "Encounters in Samara" --Nynaeve al'Meara point of view; Masema speaking

Moghedien knows Flesh is an Illusion;
Moghedien knows the traps of the Shadow;
Moghedien does not want to die.

Weird Harold
07-22-2011, 05:15 AM
Of course, that still leaves at least Graendal, Annoura, Masuri, Cyndane, and Moghedien as suspects for his fake Rand.

Why does everyone dismiss Mesaana as a possibility for Masema's keeper?

I've consistently maintined tht the behavior of Masema's Children ckloselt mimics Mesaana's Children in the war of power -- of all the forsaken, mesaana's style fits the Prophet best and demandred's style fits the least.

GonzoTheGreat
07-22-2011, 05:58 AM
I've consistently maintined tht the behavior of Masema's Children ckloselt mimics Mesaana's Children in the war of power -- of all the forsaken, mesaana's style fits the Prophet best and demandred's style fits the least.But Mesaana taught people to obey the DO. Surely she wouldn't lie in this new Age, would she?

Kimon
07-22-2011, 08:02 AM
Why does everyone dismiss Mesaana as a possibility for Masema's keeper?

I've consistently maintined tht the behavior of Masema's Children ckloselt mimics Mesaana's Children in the war of power -- of all the forsaken, mesaana's style fits the Prophet best and demandred's style fits the least.

Granted, but all those others are in seeming more immediate contact or immediate proximity, hence likely having more interest in using the Prophet. Mesaana seems to have her hands full elsewhere.

GonzoTheGreat
07-22-2011, 08:59 AM
Granted, but all those others are in seeming more immediate contact or immediate proximity, hence likely having more interest in using the Prophet. Mesaana seems to have her hands full elsewhere.I don't think that keeping the Tower incompetent was a full time job. Mesaana could have quite easily spared a few hours per month as "outside consultant" to advise the Prophet on how to go about his business.

JOS
07-22-2011, 09:42 AM
I don't think that keeping the Tower incompetent was a full time job. Mesaana could have quite easily spared a few hours per month as "outside consultant" to advise the Prophet on how to go about his business.

We have seen a lot of Aes Sedai POV's, and I agree, they almost didn't need any of her help to fall apart. She had spare time. Though, I think she is a less proactive lurker than Demandred or Moghedien. She may have just been doing "research" in the tower in her spare time. And if I remember right, SH delivered a "message" to her concerning her lack of overt efforts.

FelixPax
07-22-2011, 10:08 AM
Why does everyone dismiss Mesaana as a possibility for Masema's keeper?

I've consistently maintined tht the behavior of Masema's Children ckloselt mimics Mesaana's Children in the war of power -- of all the forsaken, mesaana's style fits the Prophet best and demandred's style fits the least.

The assassination or setting up the removal of Ghealdan rulers, was akin to a Serpent attack in high grass. Moghedien's preferred style. Same occurred in Tarabon with the prior Panarch.


Mesaana was known to be active in Cairhien, Andor, Tar Valon--not Ghealdan. Mesaana at very the minimum, passed on information to set-up the escape of Taim in the Black Hills.

Mesaana, Demandred or Sammael agents were the ones tracking Bayle Domon ship, in an attempt to gain a Seal. If it was Mesaana's agents, she was active in Illian too. Who was tracking Domon is absolutely more in doubt and question, than who was controlling the Prophet Masema in Ghealdan.


Moghedien has been all over the map physically, Tarabon, Ghealdin, Amadicia, Altara, Caemlyn Andor. In the TAR, Moghedien visited Two Rivers, Cairhien. Meanwhile Moghedien was told later that the Dragon (Rand) was in Tear, by Nynaeve & Elayne while at a Tanchico Inn.

The Prophet Masema only began using Rand al'Thor name publicly in Ghealdan, after Nynaeve & Elayne told Moghedien his name in Tanchico. See The Shadow Rising, Chapter 46 "Veils"; then The Shadow Rising (TSR), Chapter 47 "The Truth of a Viewing". Siuan's spy reports in Ghealdan show the Prophet not mentioning who the Dragon is, TSR book Chapter 17 "Deceptions".


Mesaana had access to the name of who was claimed to be the Dragon earlier, than Moghedien did.

Kimon
07-22-2011, 10:09 AM
We have seen a lot of Aes Sedai POV's, and I agree, they almost didn't need any of her help to fall apart. She had spare time. Though, I think she is a less proactive lurker than Demandred or Moghedien. She may have just been doing "research" in the tower in her spare time. And if I remember right, SH delivered a "message" to her concerning her lack of overt efforts.

It doesn't really seem a question of available time. Alviarin was basically taking care of all the real work for her. She had the time to spare, but did she really have any discernible interest in destabilizing the southeast? Killing Perrin would be important for all who might have been impersonating the Dragon, but the impersonator almost certainly had pre-existing contact with the Prophet prior to the opportunity for assassination arose with Perrin's presence. Thus, initial contact seems more likely to have been on the basis of sowing chaos in the southeast. Mesaana would seem to have less reason for this than those others, whose operations and plans would make the Prophet a useful tool.

Kimon
07-22-2011, 10:13 AM
The Prophet Masema only began using Rand al'Thor name publicly in Ghealdan, after Nynaeve & Elayne told Moghedien his name in Tanchico.


Mesaana had access to the name of who was claimed to be the Dragon earlier, than Moghedien did.

Felix, Masema was with Rand all the way to Falme, and was with him after he declared himself. He didn't need Moghedien to tell him who the Dragon was.

FelixPax
07-22-2011, 10:25 AM
Felix, Masema was with Rand all the way to Falme, and was with him after he declared himself. He didn't need Moghedien to tell him who the Dragon was.

Then explain why Siuan's Eyes and Ears reports lack a single mention of Rand al'Thor's name earlier.

Or why Moghedien's face crumpled in grimace:

Pushing everything away, the woman leaned back, speaking half to herself. “Rand al’Thor. So that is his name now.” Her face crumpled in a momentary grimace.


The Shadow Rising, Chapter 46 "Veils" -- Elayne point of view; while under Moghedien's compulsion

Masema didn't pass on, the name, who the Dragon was, to his controller.

Kimon
07-22-2011, 10:38 AM
Then explain why Siuan's Eyes and Ears reports lack a single mention of Rand al'Thor's name.

Or why Moghedien's face crumpled in grimace:



Masema didn't pass on, the name, who the Dragon was, to his controller.

Explain what? He was travelling with him, are you honestly trying to suggest that he forgot what Rand's name was?

Toss the dice
07-22-2011, 11:14 AM
I personally don't think Demandred had anything to do with Masema turning into the Prophet. The reason being, Demandred couldn't have known how Masema and his hordes of followers could have evolved.

Demandred possibly meddled with the Prophet and followers AFTER they were already established, but no one on the face of the planet could have possibly forseen just how large that snowball became. I chalk that craziness up to the times and ta'veren. Mostly ta'veren. (Rand)

Unless you think Demandred had a direct hand in manually converting tens of thousands of people into the Prophet's followers? I doubt it.

Besides, however unlikely the result was, the natural progression of the journey to get there was mostly gradual with only a few decisive victories early on that solidified the course of events. And Masema hardly needed any encouragement or meddling to get the ball rolling -- he was already batshit crazy.

Juan
07-22-2011, 12:11 PM
I'm not so sure. Compulsion could have played a large role here. Which by extension gives credit to Demandred for what happened. But I also think he had a hand in those other institutions and entities I mentioned in my original post.

Kimon
07-22-2011, 12:24 PM
I'm not so sure. Compulsion could have played a large role here. Which by extension gives credit to Demandred for what happened. But I also think he had a hand in those other institutions and entities I mentioned in my original post.

BS confirmed that it was a woman (real woman, so not Aran'gar) that was impersonating Rand. What Demandred was up to, and what chaos he was sowing still remains largely nebulous. I've still always wondered what we are to make of Aran'gar's comment in WH (at the Social in Ch 13) that Osan'gar and Demandred "were responsible for watching him" - "him" being Rand. So, what was Demandred up to that allowed him to keep an eye on Rand?

FelixPax
07-22-2011, 01:21 PM
BS confirmed that it was a woman (real woman, so not Aran'gar) that was impersonating Rand. What Demandred was up to, and what chaos he was sowing still remains largely nebulous. I've still always wondered what we are to make of Aran'gar's comment in WH (at the Social in Ch 13) that Osan'gar and Demandred "were responsible for watching him" - "him" being Rand. So, what was Demandred up to that allowed him to keep an eye on Rand?



Karldin Manfor was a Demandred's mole to watch Rand al'Thor movements.


Karldin Manfor, was in an ideal spot to give warning to Demandred and each Shadow loyal Ogier Elder about Loial coming to seek to shutdown each Stedding's Waygate.

Loial’s ears twitched, and he gave Min another look, received another encouraging smile in return. “Well, as I said, I visited all the stedding but Shangtai. Karldin wouldn’t go inside. He’d rather sleep every night under a bush than be cut off from the Source for a minute.” Rand did not say a word, but Loial raised his hands from his knees, palms out. “I am getting to the point, Rand. I am. I did what I could, but I don’t know whether it was enough. The stedding in the Borderlands told me to go home and leave matters to older and wiser heads. So did Shadoon and Mardoon, in the mountains on the Shadow Coast. The other stedding agreed to guard the Waygates. I don’t think they really believe there’s any danger, but they agreed, so you know they will keep a close guard. And I’m sure someone will take word to Shangtai. The Elders in Shangtai never liked having a Waygate right outside the stedding. I must have heard Elder Haman say a hundred times that it was dangerous. I know they’ll agree to have it watched.”


Crossroads of Twilight, Chapter 24 "A Strengthening Storm" -- Rand al'Thor point of view


Karldin Manfor slept outside of each Stedding. Thus, outside of the watchful eye of Loial was many, many hours of a night.


Perhaps the only reason Loial remains alive, is Perrin learned of Loial and Karldin Manfor mission. If Loial disappears Perrin could connect Karldin to it, directly.


“You and Faile could come with me. Karldin and I are going to visit the stedding, Perrin. All of them, about the Waygates.” A narrow-faced, pale-haired young fellow standing behind Loial stopped frowning at Perrin to frown at the Ogier. He had a scrip and a bundle, too, and a sword on his hip. Despite the blue coat, Perrin recognized one of the Asha’man. Karldin did not look pleased to recognize Perrin; besides, his smell was cold and angry.


A Crown of Swords, Chapter 27 "To Be Alone" -- Perin point of view; with Karldin, Loial in Cairhien


Karldin left before the attack on Rand al'Thor in Cairhien, and returned to Cairhien with Loial only in CoT, Prologue. Karldin is a mole for a Chosen. Demandred is his ultimate controller.


Rand's own thoughts suggest this possibility:


Your three Asha’man are still in the Sun Palace. Flinn, Narishma and Hopwil. They make people nervous. More so now than before.” The Headmistress made a sound in her throat, and her shoes shifted audibly on the floorboards. They certainly made her nervous.

Rand dismissed the Asha’man. Unless much closer than the Palace, none was strong enough to have felt him open a gateway here. Those three had not been part of the attack on him, but a wise planner might have considered the chance of failure. Planned how to keep someone close to him if he survived. You won’t survive, Lews Therin whispered. None of us will survive.


Winter's Heart, Prologue "Snow" -- Rand al'Thor point of view; at the Cairhien Academy with Dobraine, Headmistriss Idrien Tarsin, Min

Demandred fits the bill, of being a wise planner. Especially considering other prior references of Demandred being tied to events occurring in Cairhien.


Even the Aes Sedai Karldin Manfor is bond with, is allied to the Shadow, Beldeine Nyram. (KoD book)

Weiramon
07-22-2011, 01:53 PM
So, what was Demandred up to that allowed him to keep an eye on Rand?

Burn my soul - whatever it is, it certainly would not be commanding a loyal follower of the Lord Dragon to disobey orders in order to remain close to him.

ArtK
07-25-2011, 08:01 PM
So much for Demandred and Aran'gar.

Of course, that still leaves at least Graendal, Annoura, Masuri, Cyndane, and Moghedien as suspects for his fake Rand.

What about Semirhage? I'm sure there was an earlier discussion of this question, where I made this point, but perhaps I never got around to posting it:

We know of several close contacts between the Masema and the Seanchan: he had that letter from Suroth, and a Raken was sighted in his vicinity at one point. (Don't remember references, sorry.)

Semirhage was an expert in madness, and Masema was mad, in a way that benefited the Shadow. IIRC shortly before the Shiny Dragon appeared to Masema, Moridin showed the Chosen images of Mat and Perrin, and Semirhage made a comment about how if he'd shown them those images earlier it would have been useful. Of course, that was just after Mat fled Ebou Dar, but if she'd been controlling Masema she might have known about Perrin's presence.

Of course, it didn't have to be Semirhage who actually manipulated him, if one of the Aes Sedai in the camp was a DF, she might have gotten orders from Semirhage (or any chosen) to go to Masema and use some sort of controlling "key" Semirhage had set up.

Kimon
07-25-2011, 09:18 PM
What about Semirhage? I'm sure there was an earlier discussion of this question, where I made this point, but perhaps I never got around to posting it:

We know of several close contacts between the Masema and the Seanchan: he had that letter from Suroth, and a Raken was sighted in his vicinity at one point. (Don't remember references, sorry.)

Semirhage was an expert in madness, and Masema was mad, in a way that benefited the Shadow. IIRC shortly before the Shiny Dragon appeared to Masema, Moridin showed the Chosen images of Mat and Perrin, and Semirhage made a comment about how if he'd shown them those images earlier it would have been useful. Of course, that was just after Mat fled Ebou Dar, but if she'd been controlling Masema she might have known about Perrin's presence.

Of course, it didn't have to be Semirhage who actually manipulated him, if one of the Aes Sedai in the camp was a DF, she might have gotten orders from Semirhage (or any chosen) to go to Masema and use some sort of controlling "key" Semirhage had set up.

The chronology probably excludes Semirhage. Both events, her capture and Masema's vision of the fake, date (http://www.stevenac.net/wot/tl1000.htm#book11) to Aine 26 (= April 9th).

Annoura and Masuri are possibilities, and it's not implausible that they could have been operating under her original direction. We learn that they were meeting secretly with Masema in CoT Ch 5, and then Berelain's spies find the letter that Masema received from Suroth (who was definitely in contact with Semirhage) in CoT Ch 6. The only real hesitancy here is the question of whether either of them could pull off such a weave.

Weird Harold
07-25-2011, 09:25 PM
Semirhage was an expert in madness, ...

Greandal was the mind-healer (specialist in madness). Semirhage was the pain specialist (mostly in causing more pain in curing a problem).

Otherwise, Semirhage does fit in with Masema's Seanchan connection. Semirhage was also allied with Demandred during much of Masema's time of madness.

Still, Masema's visions don't fit Semirhage's style, being indirect and pain-free; It just doesn't feel like her work.

FelixPax
07-25-2011, 09:40 PM
Burn my soul - whatever it is, it certainly would not be commanding a loyal follower of the Lord Dragon to disobey orders in order to remain close to him.

Blast your right, Demandred truly misses Karldin excellent spy work tailing Rand al'Thor.


“Where is he?” Demandred growled, clenching his fists behind his back. Standing with his feet apart, he was aware that he dominated the room. He always did. Even so, he wished Semirhage or Mesaana were present. Their alliance was delicate—a simple agreement that they would not turn on one another until the others had been eliminated—yet it had held all this time. Working together, they had unbalanced opponent after opponent, toppling many to their deaths or worse. But it was difficult for Semirhage to attend these meetings, and Mesaana had been shy, of late. If she was thinking of ending the alliance . . . “Al’Thor has been seen in five cities, including that cursed place in the Waste, and a dozen towns since those blind fools—those idiots!—failed in Cairhien. And that only includes the reports we have! The Great Lord only knows what else is crawling toward us by horse, or sheep, or whatever else these savages can find to carry a message.”


Winter's Heart, Chapter 13 "Wonderful News" -- Demandred point of view; with Graendal, Aran'gar, Demandred, Osan'gar

Servants, servants are part of Demandred's till. Yet why would Demandred need Karldin's spy work, when Weiramon is available? Burn the shadow's soul, Weiramon knew this already!

ArtK
07-26-2011, 11:06 AM
The chronology probably excludes Semirhage. Both events, her capture and Masema's vision of the fake, date (http://www.stevenac.net/wot/tl1000.htm#book11) to Aine 26 (= April 9th).

Annoura and Masuri are possibilities, and it's not implausible that they could have been operating under her original direction. We learn that they were meeting secretly with Masema in CoT Ch 5, and then Berelain's spies find the letter that Masema received from Suroth (who was definitely in contact with Semirhage) in CoT Ch 6. The only real hesitancy here is the question of whether either of them could pull off such a weave.

Actually, according to the current version (as of this moment) it's Aine 25. However, the meeting in which Moridin instructed the Chosen to kill Mat and Perrin was Aine 16. I see no reason for assuming that the vision couldn't have been set up in advance.

Admittedly, the lack of pain suggests someone other than Semirhage. However, I see no reason she couldn't have set up compulsions in Masema that would cause him to "see" the Dragon Reborn tell him to do anything suggested by her agent. AFAIK this could be done with real-world post-hypnotic suggestion, much less Randland compulsion. Thus, anybody could have been Semirhage's agent. They wouldn't even need to channel, or even be able to.