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Terez
08-29-2011, 08:07 PM
Someone pointed out to me on Twitter that this mystery has been kind of left hanging for a long time, and I realized that I hadn't really put any thought into it recently. Certainly I don't recall any particularly convincing theories. But as I thought about it, I realized there are actually three instances at least in LOC that might be seen as attempts to turn Rand against the Aiel, though they were all unsuccessful:

1. In LOC 22, 'Heading South', Vanin discovers the Tinker caravan. Someone with knowledge of the Aiel feeling toward Tinkers might have set this up in Mat's path deliberately, thinking he would blame the Aiel because he knows of their prejudice and because there are many bands of Aiel heading south with the Band (but separately, since they move faster). In case Mat wasn't inclined to believe that...

2. In the same chapter, Aiel attempt to kill Mat in his sleep. Unfortunately for them, he wasn't in his tent. They were transported there by gateway. This was most likely not a simple assassination attempt, because it was doomed to fail (more because of Mat's ta'verenness than anything else). More likely, it was an attempt to turn Rand against the Aiel, with the unlikely possibility of a bonus should the Aiel succeed.

3. In LOC 46, Demira Eriff is attacked by fake Aiel (she notes their dark eyes, and they call her a 'witch'). This could be a dual attempt to turn Rand against the Aiel, and to turn the Aes Sedai against Rand.

I've always argued that the third incident was set up by Fain because we know he has a few Whitecloaks still at his disposal, and the motives fit. Others (including Luckers I think) have argued it was Taim, which seems to be a pretty popular theory. But if we were to assume that all three incidents were connected, then the most likely suspect seems to be Sammael. He knows enough of the 'modern' Aiel, probably, to have thought up the first incident - we know he met with Sevanna before Dumai's Wells, at least. Rand's huge, massive army of mostly Aiel was pointed in his direction, and the alliance that was supposed to protect him had fallen apart with Lanfear's disappearance and Rahvin's death, leaving only Graendal for an ally. Technically, there's no reason to assume that the third incident is connected to the first two, but it's certainly possible, even likely.

I guess the main point of bringing this up is that I tend to doubt there is some great as-yet-unrevealed mystery concerning the Tinkers in this case. It may be that the Tinker who wrote the message wanted Rand to know that the Aiel weren't playing nice, and it may also be that the Tinker didn't write the message at all, and that it was just staged to look that way by the killers. Whether or not the third incident is connected, it seems highly likely that the first two were connected, and I think Sammael has the best motive.

Davian93
08-29-2011, 08:52 PM
I've always argued that the third incident was set up by Fain because we know he has a few Whitecloaks still at his disposal, and the motives fit. Others (including Luckers I think) have argued it was Taim, which seems to be a pretty popular theory. But if we were to assume that all three incidents were connected, then the most likely suspect seems to be Sammael. He knows enough of the 'modern' Aiel, probably, to have thought up the first incident - we know he met with Sevanna before Dumai's Wells, at least. Rand's huge, massive army of mostly Aiel was pointed in his direction, and the alliance that was supposed to protect him had fallen apart with Lanfear's disappearance and Rahvin's death, leaving only Graendal for an ally. Technically, there's no reason to assume that the third incident is connected to the first two, but it's certainly possible, even likely.

What about Verin? The attack helped her push the embassy in the direction she wanted as well. She certainly took advantage of it so perhaps she had a hand in setting it up as well?

Terez
08-29-2011, 08:53 PM
What about Verin? The attack helped her push the embassy in the direction she wanted as well. She certainly took advantage of it so perhaps she had a hand in setting it up as well?
I doubt it, personally. Dom has argued that, but I don't think she's quite so ruthless. Though it's certainly possible she did it on orders from Sammael. ;) (Also, we're mostly talking about the Tinker attack here. The Demira attack is just another possible connection.)

Davian93
08-29-2011, 08:55 PM
I doubt it, personally. Dom has argued that, but I don't think she's quite so ruthless. Though it's certainly possible she did it on orders from Sammael. ;) (Also, we're mostly talking about the Tinker attack here. The Demira attack is just another possible connection.)

I would argue that she is that ruthless and she very specifically ensured Demira would survive by the placement of the wounds. Its no worse than Compelling Sisters to support Rand IMHO.

Rand al'Fain
08-29-2011, 10:01 PM
I always figured the 2nd group were some of the Shaido Aiel that Sammael transported. Gateways, Aiel not prepared for him, etc. The others, the Tinkers could be attributed to bandits (could, but it's just a guess). And the other group I'd pretty much attribute to someone that wants to tear relations between Rand-Aiel-Aes Sedai apart. Which could be one of several groups, though the "witch" part narrows it down to the Whitecloaks and their supporters.

Kimon
08-29-2011, 10:46 PM
I would argue that she is that ruthless and she very specifically ensured Demira would survive by the placement of the wounds. Its no worse than Compelling Sisters to support Rand IMHO.

It could have simply been a pragmatic act of opportunism after the fact by Verin - allowing her to make use of the situation to wrest control of the delegation from Merana, and to use that control to ensure that the embassy confronted Rand but didn't overreact. Even Merana seemed to note that while Verin was usurping her authority, that she wasn't really suggesting anything to drastic, or forcing a drastic shift in their intended policy towards Rand. Then of course Bera and Kiruna showed up and everthing went fubar. It is difficult however to escape the fact that the attack on Demira seemed designed to injure rather than kill her. One could argue that Fain, Taim, or Sammael would have had need to have her survive to report on who had attacked her, but if she had died the sisters would still have received that suspicious bystander's report of Aiel attacking her, and with her dead that would have caused much more permanent friction between Rand and the embassy.

Enigma
08-30-2011, 05:34 AM
As far as I can recall the only group who routinely call Aes Sedai 'Witch' is the Whitecloaks. She most certainly was meant to live given the placement of her wounds but if the intent was to stirr up trouble between Rand & the Aiel they needed a live victim rather than a cold corpse who could have been killed by anyone. I doubt if any witnesses would want to stick around and it would be very risky to have the assassins pose as fake witnesses because if their story did not pass muster the killers could lead back to who ever sent them.

Personally I think the intent was not to put a wedge beween Rand & the Aiel but it was more aimed at making sure the rebel AS did not get too cosy with Rand.

As for who would do that? I can't see the Whitecloaks doing it as its too subtle for them. Not to mention they think Rand is a creature of the AS anyway yet the word Witch suggests that it might have been Whitecloaks or at least former whitecloaks. That points the finger at Fain.

Likewise it might have been Verin. The may have come across as warm and fuzzy but I think team jordan said after the was revealed to be BA (sort of) that to get to where she was in the orginisation she had to do some terrible things over the years.

Perhaps now that the Asmodean craze has been sorted this can be the next burning quesion that keeps WoT fanatics awake at night for the next few years :)

Toss the dice
08-30-2011, 09:06 AM
I agree with all of this. Will be interesting to see if we get a confirmation on it.

Through my own readings, I either didn't catch or forgot the part about Demira's attackers having dark eyes. That right there pretty much points to anyone but Aiel. The "witch" part is odd too, but that doesn't necessarily have to represent the attackers directly - as it could have been part of their orders.

Fain is a decent guess, using Whitecloaks or others. I like the thought of Demandred being behind it, even though it's a blind guess. I am fairly confident that Demira's attackers didn't kill her on purpose, because if they wanted to kill her that would have been fairly easy to accomplish. Verin is another interesting possibility and I have no doubt she had done plenty of stuff worse than that. Given her age and how long she was BA, maybe countless is the better term.

To me, this mystery can be summed up as matching up a motive with who was responsible. Which match do you think makes the most sense?

Enigma
08-30-2011, 10:25 AM
To me, this mystery can be summed up as matching up a motive with who was responsible. Which match do you think makes the most sense?

Ok lets list who would have motives to drive a wedge between the rebel AS and Rand.

1 The Tower Aes Sedai - Motive yes, would they do it, I don't think so. Elaida might order it but any non dark AS would have serious problems doing such an act.

2 The Aiel themselves- Unlikely. They don't really care about the Aes Sedai one way or another except to be a bit dissapointed that the AS didn't live up to the Aiel expectations.

3 The Whitecloaks - They would love to kill AS but attacking an AS but leaving her alive and trying to put a rift between Rand and the AS does not seem their style. Its two subtle and they think Rand works for Tar Valon. Pedron Neill might come up with something like this but his replacement? I doubt it.

4 - The forces of the Shadow- Division between the forces of the light. What's not to like from the Shadow pov.

5- Fain - Weaken Rand and he really does not much care for Aes Sedai either.

I think 4 & 5 are tied at the moment and it could be either but I give Fain the slight edge as we know that he has corrupted Whitecloaks working for him and they did use the word "witch" which is Whitecloak speak.

Davian93
08-30-2011, 10:29 AM
It drives a wedge but it also allows Verin to step in and take over the Embassy...if not for Kiruna/Bera showing up unexpectedly.

So, Verin has plenty of motivation to order/plan such an attack on Demira. We already have heavy indications that she manipulated/pushed Alanna into bonding Rand for some reason. Knocking off Demira and assuming control of the embassy isn't that far-fetched.

Enigma
08-30-2011, 01:05 PM
Does it allow Verin to take over? Would she want to? All throught the series Verin was a player who worked best in the background. The attack did have the domino effect of sending them to Rand with demands that Verin had to suspect would get a negitive response. Then Rand headed off when their numbers came to 13 and told them that only a certain number could follow.

It was at this point that Merana's authority began to fall apart. She simply did not know how to deal with someone who refused to be impressed by Aes Sedia 'authority' and 'dignity'.

Her replacemens in Bera & Kiruna were much more forceful. I would have thought that it would serve Verin's methods to be able to manipulate the weak Merana rather that see her demoted and have to deal with the more rigid Bera & Kiruna.

The Unreasoner
08-30-2011, 01:10 PM
Verin for the attack on Demira sounds like the best theory on this specific issue I've heard. And Verin did stay in the background (and got her way). There was no way to anticipate Bera or Kiruna.

Davian93
08-30-2011, 01:22 PM
Verin for the attack on Demira sounds like the best theory on this specific issue I've heard. And Verin did stay in the background (and got her way). There was no way to anticipate Bera or Kiruna.

The attack allows Verin to override Merana's stance on Rand and push the embassy in a direction of her choosing. If not for the sudden appearance of Bera/Kiruna, she's essentially in charge without officially being in charge at that point. The attack undercuts any remaining authority Merana has to be completely diplomatic with Rand...and it eventually leads to both embassies bowing to Rand. Given that Verin has access to both light and dark prophecies and could very well be getting orders from Mesaana (as Verin is a leader among the Black Ajah) to get Rand back to Cairhien, it does make sense.

The Unreasoner
08-30-2011, 01:27 PM
The attack allows Verin to override Merana's stance on Rand and push the embassy in a direction of her choosing. If not for the sudden appearance of Bera/Kiruna, she's essentially in charge without officially being in charge at that point. The attack undercuts any remaining authority Merana has to be completely diplomatic with Rand...and it eventually leads to both embassies bowing to Rand. Given that Verin has access to both light and dark prophecies and could very well be getting orders from Mesaana (as Verin is a leader among the Black Ajah) to get Rand back to Cairhien, it does make sense.
Yeah. You know I agreed with you, on all of these points, right?

Davian93
08-30-2011, 01:31 PM
Yeah. You know I agreed with you, on all of these points, right?

Yeah, I was using your post to expand on my viewpoint for Enigma.

The Unreasoner
08-30-2011, 01:36 PM
Ah.

Crispin's Crispian
08-30-2011, 02:42 PM
Something else to consider is Melindhra and her attack on Mat. She was either working for Sammael or was a plant for someone who wanted Rand to think she worked for Sammael.

If it was the former, it establishes precedence for Sammael having connections within the Aiel. If the latter, it suggests that the other events might have been staged similarly.

Terez
08-30-2011, 03:09 PM
Something else to consider is Melindhra and her attack on Mat. She was either working for Sammael or was a plant for someone who wanted Rand to think she worked for Sammael.
I got the impression that was a result of the alliance, since the golden bees thing was obviously intended to point at Sammael (which was the plan). Then the alliance fell apart and poor Sammael was all alone, and the object of Rand's wrath. We don't know for sure that Sammael had connections then, but we do know that he met with Sevanna before Dumai's Wells.

Crispin's Crispian
08-30-2011, 03:56 PM
I got the impression that was a result of the alliance, since the golden bees thing was obviously intended to point at Sammael (which was the plan). Then the alliance fell apart and poor Sammael was all alone, and the object of Rand's wrath. We don't know for sure that Sammael had connections then, but we do know that he met with Sevanna before Dumai's Wells.

Right. I guess I was suggesting (not very clearly) that if the three other Aiel events don't suggest Sammael, they may suggest that someone was setting Sammael up.

Enigma
08-30-2011, 04:40 PM
Davian you could be right about Verin though I suspect that unless someone asks team jordan we will never know for certain.

Right. I guess I was suggesting (not very clearly) that if the three other Aiel events don't suggest Sammael, they may suggest that someone was setting Sammael up.

I don't think that Sammael was being set us so much as he agreed, a bit reluctantly, that he was to be the target of Rand's anger and that when Rand came after him he would find Lanfear Graendal & Rahvin linked to shield him. Though as Moggy said Lanfear may have a little suprise planned for the others at that point.

If I recall correctly there was a meeting between the four forsaken where Sammael complained that he wanted to be part of the link because he did not trust the others. Either Lanfear or Greandal said that he could not be as Rand had a teacher now (Asmodean) and would recognise that Sammael was linked. She then went on to add that Sammael had already agreed to this and that Rand's focus had to be on Sammael and that if needs be someone close to Rand would be killed and the blame would go to Sammael if his baits did not draw Rand in.

When Mat lets slip that Rand is going after Rahvin his girlfriend probably had orders to make sure Rand stayed focused on Sammael hence the attack with the oh so obvious dagger.

If anyone is suggesting that Melindhra's attack was linked with the attack on the Aes Sedai I don't see it. Why would anyone think that Sammael had anything to do with that? There was nothing to point to him beyond that the attack was evil and Sammael was a forsaken. Then again there were other forsaken

Crispin's Crispian
08-30-2011, 05:43 PM
I'm just trying to tie all of them together. They all have Aiel in common, and all are attacks that seem to have ulterior motives.

Terez suggested Sammael as the link between the first three, and I'm suggesting Melindhra's (an Aiel) attack on Mat could fit right in.

Also, it might not.

Toss the dice
08-30-2011, 05:59 PM
I also don't see Melindhra's attack on Mat as having anything to do with the attack on Demira. At best (which I highly doubt), the same person could be behind both. But that would be as far as it goes.

Davian93
08-30-2011, 06:01 PM
I'm just trying to tie all of them together. They all have Aiel in common, and all are attacks that seem to have ulterior motives.

Terez suggested Sammael as the link between the first three, and I'm suggesting Melindhra's (an Aiel) attack on Mat could fit right in.

Also, it might not.

It should be noted that the "Aiel" that attacked Demira were certainly not Aiel whereas Melindhra definitely was an Aiel.

Ishara
08-30-2011, 06:15 PM
With a Golden Bees knife...

Davian93
08-30-2011, 06:38 PM
With a Golden Bees knife...

Well yeah, we know she was a Darkfriend and that someone wanted Rand/Mat to think she was associated with Sammael (which makes sense given the plan by Rahvin, Sammael, Graendal and Lanfear to point them in that direction).

But it really doesnt feel like the Demira attack is even similar at all to that. It doesnt fit the mold.

Kimon
08-30-2011, 07:21 PM
Well yeah, we know she was a Darkfriend and that someone wanted Rand/Mat to think she was associated with Sammael (which makes sense given the plan by Rahvin, Sammael, Graendal and Lanfear to point them in that direction).

But it really doesnt feel like the Demira attack is even similar at all to that. It doesnt fit the mold.

Well it did occur after Rand turned down his offer of a truce until TG, so it could have merely been, along with all the chaos he was sowing with the Shaido, just another attempt to give Rand other problems to deal with so that he couldn't focus (at least exclusively) on moving against him. Taim likewise seems reasonable as he could either have been sowing chaos on his own initiative, or perhaps even at the behest of Moridin (though there is no textual evidence that he had already been recycled at this point). Verin's reasons are most obvious, with her it's just a question of whether it was according to plan, or if she took advantage of the presented opportunity.

So Verin at least seems to make the most sense, but either Sammael or Taim could also make sense, as would the Red or Black Ajahs. What I have difficulty understanding is why Fain would have ordered the hit on Demira. It seems too long term a plan for him, not to mention I find it harder to believe that he would have designed a plan that left her alive, I have far less a problem assuming that of anyone else. What would Fain have hoped to accomplish? His activities in the two rivers were designed to draw Rand to him (or at worst one of the other lads), and when no one came quickly enough he started getting vicious enough that even Bornhald was bothered by what he was doing to Perrin's family. The motive for everyone else seems clear, or at least mildly nebulous, but why would Fain care to draw a rift between Rand and his Aiel, or between Rand and the Salidar sisters? Why would either matter to him? Certainly he couldn't expect that the attack would draw Rand to him, and give him the chance to kill him. If that was the point, then would it not have made sense for him to kill her with the dagger so that he would have actually drawn Rand's attention?

GonzoTheGreat
08-31-2011, 03:43 AM
I don't think Verin had any reason for killing those Tinkers.
However, I do think that Carridin and his Dragonsworn Whitecloak killers had good reason for killing Tinkers and letting the DR get blamed for it. The idea that it was done by Aiel is, as far as I know, only based on the fact that Aiel were running around in that general area right then.

Enigma
08-31-2011, 05:51 AM
Was Sammael's efforts with the Shaido an effort to sow chaos or was it a military obsticle for Rand? I got the impression that he planted a lot of the Shaido between Rand's army and his own forts to slow them down. The rest were scattered so that Rand would have to divert front line troups to hunt them down as they could ravage the countryside and people that were looking for Rand to protect them or at worse disrupt second rate nations that may have signed up to Rand after Illian fell.

I know that he said it was to cause chaos but that does not mean that's what Sammael's primary goal was.

As for Sammael organising the attack on the AS to give Rand another problem I doubt it was him. Why? Well for a start Rand's approach to Sammael was purely military as far as Sammael could see. Rand was gathering a very big army and sending to to Illian. He did not need or in fact want Aes Sedai help for this. If they got invovled they would only get in the way. If Rand needed channeling support he has the Asha'man who had already proved a lot more effective in battle that the Aes Sedai.

I think that Verin or Fain remain the most likely suspect and after some of the arguements put forward earlier I's starting to sway to either Verin doing it on her own initiative or being ordered to do so by the BA.

As far as the attack on the Tinkiers goes I would not rule out Fain. I doubt he would activly seek them out as he is too fixated on Rand & co but if he happened to run into them it would not take a lot to set him off, all it would take was for one of them to look at him the wrong way and it would be 'i've got to teach you a lesson'.

GonzoTheGreat
08-31-2011, 07:40 AM
But the pattern of bodies is entirely wrong for it to be Fain's work. And he wouldn't have bothered with tipping a wagon on its side either, I think.
So it does not seem like something Fain would do.

SamJ
08-31-2011, 03:55 PM
I asked Brandon about this when he was in London - but he couldn't give me an answer! He remembered it but said he needed to check what he could say. He told me to email him the question but no answer yet(obviously AMOL is slightly more important ;) )

Anyway, I like Terez's theory as an explanation, but I'm not sure. I don't recall there being any obvious evidence to implicate the Aiel - which is the kind of thing you might expect from a plot, e.g. "Tell the Dragon Reborn, the Aiel . . ." This makes me think there could be another explanation.

Also, I think there could be something in the repeated patterns DomA from wotmania/RAFO used to post. Hopefully not misrepresenting his idea to say he thought events in early books were varied and repeated in later books - so this could be a parallel with the Tinker message about the Eye.

Finally, it would just be cool if there was something more to this message, for example, if the Tinkers had been to Shara . . .

FelixPax
09-02-2011, 09:50 AM
What about Verin? The attack helped her push the embassy in the direction she wanted as well. She certainly took advantage of it so perhaps she had a hand in setting it up as well?

Yes, I agree.


Separately, it set-ups a situation where the Two Rivers girls get sent to Salidar. This meant some number of Aes Sedai needs to taken the Novices there. Individuals, Verin likely deduced who would go.


Verin had a series of vexing political problems to deal with, in Caemlyn.


Two Rivers Novices, where to have them trained
Black Ajah in Caemlyn, whom Verin cannot trust
Dangerous Plans in the works to capture Rand al'Thor, by the Black Ajah: be it, the Salidar side to Caemlyn or Tower side to Cairhien or one B.A sent to Aiel Waste (by Sheriam).

A motion at the back of the common room caught her eye and she half-turned her head before her neck froze. Two Aes Sedai were coming back from the baths, by the freshly washed look of them, The last time she had seen that pair was months ago, before they were sent out from Salidar because Sheriam had a hunch Rand was in the Aiel waste somewhere. That was where Bera Harkin and Kiruna Nachiman had been headed; the Waste, not Caemlyn.


Lord of Chaos, Chapter 49 "The Mirror of Mists" -- Min point of view


Verin knew the White Tower wasn't safe for her.
How to deal with the fallout, of Alanna bonding Rand al'Thor



If two or more Black Ajah were in Merana Ambrey party, the addition of Kiruna arrival in Caemlyn mades Verin out-numbered 2 or 3 to 1.


Kiruna Nachiman : certain she is a B.A.; a woman who'd given her brother the King of Arafel to the Dark One. Four Warders.
Berenicia Morsad: uncertain if B.A. or not. A Shienarian. No warder.
Valinde Nathenos: uncertain if B.A. or not. A Illianer. No warder.
Demira: uncertain. One warder.



Nor do all four Aes Sedai who Kiruna directs to go to Salidar, Altara arrive to meet Egwene & Gareth Bryne group in Murandy. Question is who did arrive, and where is the unknown individuals go?


Kairen arrived at Salidar, Altara. However, it's unknown whether Berenicia, Demira or Valinde arrived.


Partial evidence for these claims is below:

A month of recruiting, a month of the novice book being open to all, had brought in startling numbers, a flood anxious to become Aes Sedai, women of every age some from hundreds of miles away. There were now twice as many novices with the column as before. Almost a thousand! Most by far would never wear the shawl, yet the number of them had everyone staring. Some might cause minor problems, and one, a grandmother named Sharina with a potential above even that of Nynaeve, certainly had everyone startled, but it was not the sight of a mother and daughter squabbling because the daughter would be the stronger by far one day that she was trying to avoid, or noblewomen who were beginning to think they had made the wrong choice asking to be tested, or even Sharina’s disturbingly direct looks. The gray-haired woman obeyed every rule and showed every proper respect, but she had run her large family by the sheer force of her presence, and even some of the sisters stepped warily around her. What Egwene did not want to see were the young women who had joined them two days before. The two sisters who brought them had been more than startled to find Egwene as Amyrlin, but their charges could not believe it, not Egwene al’Vere, the Mayor’s daughter from Emond’s Field. She did not want to order anyone else punished, but she would have to if she saw another stick her tongue out at her.

The Path of Daggers, Chapter 30 "Beginnings" -- Egwene al'Vere point of view, her thoughts while with the Salidar force


Back to Verin.



Verin needed to push Rand al'Thor out of Caemlyn to protect him, from the Black Ajah's plans she knew of.
Verin knew how Rand al'Thor would respond if challenged. How did she know this? After spending time in Two Rivers and meeting individuals who grew up with Rand al'Thor, including stubborn Two Rivers Novices.
Verin also guided Demira Eriff into challenging Rand al'Thor in Caemlyn at the Palace. Merana Ambrey said as much in her own point of view.



Verin likely suspected and knew Kiruna would send back a B.A. or two, to Salidar (end up meeting in Murandy), to inform Sheriam what's occurring in Caemlyn.

Kiruna was even more blunt. She turned to the others. “Faeldrin, you will come with us to Cairhien, if you will. And you also, Masuri, Rafela.”

Merana trembled, the folded letter crumpling in her fist. “Don’t you see?” she shouted. “You talk as if we can go on as before, as if nothing has changed. There is an embassy from Elaida in Cairhien, from the White Tower. That is how al’Thor must see it. We need him more than he needs us, and I fear he knows it!”

For a moment, shock covered every face save Verin’s. Verin only nodded thoughtfully, smiling a small, secretive smile. For a moment, every other face was full of wide eyes, stunned. Those words seemed to ring in the air. We need him more than he needs us. They did not need the Three Oaths to know it for truth.

Then Bera said quite firmly, “Sit down, Merana, and calm yourself.” Merana was sitting before she realized it; still trembling, still wanting to shout, but sitting with her hands clutched together around al’Thor’s missive.

Kiruna turned her back deliberately. “Seonid, you will come, of course. Another pair of Gaidin are always useful. And Verin, I think.” Verin nodded as if it were a request. “Demira,” Kiruna went on, “I know you have grievance against him, but we do not want to panic the man again, and someone must shepherd that extraordinary collection of girls from the Two Rivers to Salidar. You, Valinde, Kairen and Berenicia must assist Merana in that.”

The other four named murmured acceptance without the slightest hesitation, but Merana felt cold. The delegation was not crumbling; it was gone to dust.

“I . . . ” She trailed off as Bera’s gaze turned to her, and Kiruna’s. And Masuri’s and Faeldrin’s and Rafela’s as well. Gone to dust, and all her authority with it. “You may find some need for a Gray,” she said faintly. “There will certainly be negotiations, and . . . ” Words failed her again. This would never have happened when the Tower was whole.

“Very well,” Bera said at last, in such a tone that all Merana’s control only just kept her cheeks from going crimson in shame.

“Demira, you will see the girls to Salidar,” Kiruna said.
Merana sat very still. She prayed that the Hall had chosen an Amyrlin by now. Someone very strong, in the Power and in her heart. It would take another Deane, another Rashima, to make them once more what they had been. She prayed Alanna led them to al’Thor before he decided to acknowledge Elaida. Even another Rashima would not save them then.


Lord of Chaos, Chapter 49 "The Mirror of Mists" -- Merana point of view, in Caemlyn


Black Ajah like Chosen, just don't trust each other. Simply easier to survive if one's not surrounded day and night by Black Ajah. The location of Verin's main livings quarters in Tar Valon are a physical expression this conclusion: Tower Library Buildings upper floors, surrounded by Sea Folk sisters. Rather than spending the majority of her time in her White Tower room. Yes, Darkfriends do not trust each other.



Back to Mystery of Three Aes Sedai


Notice that Merana originally was picked by Kiruna to leave for Salidar, yet Merana was able to get Bera's agreement to stay on. This effects the dynamics of the Aes Sedai directed to go South. How? Strength of Power determinations, between: Merana, Demira, Valinde, Kairen and Berenicia.

According to Linda's saidar strength ratings (http://13depository.blogspot.com/2009/02/saidar-strength-ranking.html):


Merana - level 8
Demira - level 7
Valinde - level 6
Kairen - Level 6
Berenica - level 5


If this chart of authority is accurate, Demira had enough power to push Kairen and one other sister to deliver the Two Rivers Novices to the Salidar Aes Sedai group.

Kairen was not a BA, she was a close friend of Anaiya. Who did Verin trust to heal her in the past? Anaiya, the Blue Ajah Head. Yes, Verin knew Kairen could be trusted to deliver the Two Rivers Novices. Why? Kairen was a very close friend of Anaiya. Nisao later speaks of Anaiya's friendship bond with Kairen & Cabriana Mecandes.

Question that remains, is about Demira who Verin set-up to be attacked in Caemlyn, and two other Aes Sedai whom little evidence is given about. Valinde. Berenica. Who is a BA?

Where did two Aes Sedai go, between Caemlyn and Murandy? Did they get a change of commands, by dream from a Chosen? Or command from someone else, like say one Tower Gray Sitter named Rubinde?




Rubinde's Hot Plan for the Rebels: Mole(s) used?


Were these two Aes Sedai taken into the plan mentioned by Rubinde (Green Sitter, loyalist) to make life difficult for the Salidar Aes Sedai Army, when it crossed into Andor?


Rubinde twisted her lips at the Gray. Perhaps they were meant to make a smile, but they merely seemed to writhe. With raven-black hair and eyes like sapphires, the Mayener usually looked as if she intended to walk through a stone wall, and planting her fists on her hips now, she seemed ready to walk through two. “We’ve dealt with what we can for the time being, Andaya. Most of it, anyway. The rebels are caught by the snows in Murandy, and we’ll make winter hot enough for them that in the spring they’ll come crawling back to apologize and beg penance. Tear will be taken care of as soon as we find where the High Lord Darlin has vanished to, and Cairhien once we root Caraline Damodred and Toram Riatin out of their hiding places. Al’Thor has the crown of Illian for the moment, but that’s in work. So, unless you have a scheme for snaffling the man into the Tower or making these so-called ‘Asha’man’ vanish, I have the business of my Ajah to be about.”

Andaya drew herself up, her feathers well and truly ruffled. For that matter, Duhara’s eyes narrowed; mention of men who could channel always lit fires in her head. Shevan clicked her tongue as if at children squabbling—though she looked pleased to see it—and Velina frowned, for some reason sure Shevan had aimed at her. This was amusing, but getting out of hand.


The Path of Daggers, Chapter 25 "An Unwelcome Return" -- Elaida point of view; with a group of Loyalist Sitters in Tar Valon, three of whom are Black Ajah (Duhara, Shevan, Velina). Rubinde just told the BA her Ajah's plans, and Elaida didn't get it. :rolleyes:

If so, that would have made two of these Aes Sedai Sisters, Elaida's Moles. Originally five Moles were sent to Salidar, however only Beonin's identity has been disclosed as a Mole (KoD, TGS, ToM books).




Additionally, I've wondered for a long time why Aes Sedai's eyes & ears didn't report that Egwene al'Vere had claimed to be of the Green Ajah during her time in Tear (TDR, TSR books). Rubinde would have been pissed, considered that's her Ajah claimed too.



Random Facts: Rubinde's is uniquely one of the few Mayener Aes Sedai mentioned in the series, outside of Annoura (Gray Ajah), Moradri (Green Ajah). Rubinde's "raven-black" hair description curious matches Elayne's dyed "raven-black" hair (TFoH, Ch.17 'Heading West').




A Concluding Possibilities:




Might have one of the missing Aes Sedai two sisters have been a Black Ajah, while another was Mole for Elaida's Tower side reporting to Sitter Rubinde?
Or both missing Aes Sedai sisters are Black Ajah?
Or both missing Aes Sedai sisters are Moles for Elaida?
Or both missing Aes Sedai just decided to rebel from both the Rebels and the Loyalists? Thus joining that 1/3 of Aes Sedai on the sidelines, during the Civil War?




Addendum

Tower Sitter Rubinde uses the phrase 'Ajah business' in association with the plan to harass the Rebels Aes Sedai in Murandy. This implies that plan was a Green Ajah scheme, and limited to the Greens. Yet none of the three Mysterious Aes Sedai are of the Green Ajah. Demira Eriff is of the Brown Ajah (a Domani), Berenicia Morsad is of the Yellow Ajah (a Shienarian), Valinde Nathenos is of the White Ajah (a Illianer).

What's my point here? It is extremely unlikely any Green Ajah scheme involved Demira, Berenicia or Valinde--this is consistent with prior character & group conflicts. There seems to be no common tie, between these three Aes Sedai and any Green Ajah scheme. Not Nationality, Ajah, known common friends, allegiance to a side in the Aes Sedai Civil War, et al. Nor is it likely, a Yellow Ajah Berenicia Morsad and a Brown Ajah Demira Eriff would cooperate with any of Elaida's grand plans.




Elaida (bc of Alviarin's push) versus Adelorna Bastine, Head of Green Ajah (ACoS,Ch32) -- means Elaida could not trust Adelorna enough to share her five Salidar Moles sources.
Polarization of individuals by Ajah within Elaida's White Tower. Greens punished while Yellow, Brown are to be praised.

The woman tugged her striped stole again, roughly this time, almost as if to yank it off or saw through her neck with it. “It seems that Josaine found an angreal some years ago and never turned it in. Adelorna did worse, I fear. She removed an angreal from one of the storerooms without permission. When you have found them, you will announce their punishment immediately. Something quite stiff. And at the same time you will hold up Doraise, Kiyoshi and Farellien as models of preserving the law. You will give each a present; a fine new horse will do.”

Elaida wondered whether her eyes were going to pop right out of her face. “Why?” From time to time a sister kept an angreal to herself in defiance of the law, but the penance was seldom more than a stern slap on the knuckles. Every sister knew the temptation. And the rest! The effect was obvious. Everyone would believe Doraise and Kiyoshi and Farellien had exposed the other two. Josaine and Adelorna were Green, the others Brown, Gray and Yellow respectively. The Green Ajah would be furious. They might even try to get back at the others, which would incite those Ajahs, and . . . “Why do you want to do this, Alviarin?”


A Crown of Swords, Chapter 32 "Sealed to the Flame" -- Elaida point of view; with Alviarin

Disagreements between the Tower Green Ajah Head and a Green Sitter, Adelorna Bastine versus Rubinde (Alviarin POV)

“I am instructed to make the same points as Shevan,” she said, ignoring the startled look that Rina gave her. Plainly there had been pressure from Adelorna, the Green ‘Captain-General,’ and plainly Rubinde disagreed if she was willing to make it public. “Tarmon Gai’don is coming, the Black Tower is almost as great a threat, and the Dragon Reborn is missing, if he isn’t dead. We can no longer afford to be divided. If Andaya can talk the rebels back into the Tower, then we must let her try.”


Crossroads of Twilight, Chapter 21 "A Mark" -- Alviarin point of view (Head of Black Ajah now); with three Green Sitters, and other Sitters facing Elaida off.

Who gave Egwene al'Vere one of the hardest times later in the series? The Green Ajah Head, Adelorna Bastine (a Saldaean).


And then there was Adelorna Bastine. The Saldaean Green somehow managed stateliness in spite of being slim and no taller than Egwene, and she had a regal, commanding air that might have been intimidating had Egwene let it. “I hear you make trouble.” she said, picking up an ivory-backed hairbrush from a small inlaid table beside her chair. “If you try to make trouble with me, you'll learn that I know how to use this.”

Egwene did learn, without trying. Three times she went across Adelorna's lap, and the woman did indeed know how to use a hairbrush for more than brushing her hair. That managed to stretch an hour lecture to two.


Knife of Dreams, Chapter 24 "Honey in the Tea" -- Egwene al'Vere point of view; memories of a spanking given by Adelorna.


Addendum Conclusion Possibilities Reviewed:


Might have one of the missing Aes Sedai two sisters have been a Black Ajah, while another was Mole for Elaida's Tower side reporting to Sitter Rubinde?
Or both missing Aes Sedai sisters are Black Ajah?
Or both missing Aes Sedai sisters are Moles for Elaida?
Or both missing Aes Sedai just decided to rebel from both the Rebels and the Loyalists? Thus joining that 1/3 of Aes Sedai on the sidelines, during the Civil War?


1. False. Rubinde was limited to a Green Ajah scheme. None of three mysteriously missing Aes Sedai are Green Ajah.
2. Remains a good possibility.
3. If they were once, they are not anymore.
4. Remains a valid question.


So where did Demira Eriff, Berenicia Morsad, Valinde Nathenos go between Caemlyn and Murandy?


Counterfactual history

Things would turned out very different if Merana had gone to meet the Salidar Aes Sedai group. Why? None nobody had more authority nor strength of Saidar than Merana did, among the four Aes Sedai ordered by Kiruna to go to Salidar. Demira is a level 7, while Merana is a level 8. Nobody could have gone off freelancing like two of the three Aes Sedai did, if Merana was in the party. Not Demira Eriff, nor Berenicia Morsad, Valinde Nathenos.

maacaroni
09-02-2011, 09:58 AM
The dead tinkers were a goad by Sammael to get Rand to attack him. As was Melindhra's attack on Mat

It is the most obvious connection.

The Unreasoner
09-02-2011, 01:43 PM
And Mat (and Vanin) just missed the calling card? Something like the dagger? Or do you think it was arranged by a more subtle Forsaken-maybe Graendal- while Melindra was ordered by Sammael or Lanfear?

Terez
09-02-2011, 02:34 PM
The dead tinkers were a goad by Sammael to get Rand to attack him. As was Melindhra's attack on Mat

It is the most obvious connection.
It is the most obvious connection, but I doubt it was a goad. There were no Sammael-associated markers with the Tinker attack, so why would Rand blame Sammael? It could be something as simple as 'Slayer likes killing Tinkers', but if RJ expected us to figure it out, then the most logical explanation is that someone was trying to turn Rand against the Aiel.

FelixPax
09-03-2011, 05:03 AM
The dead tinkers were a goad by Sammael to get Rand to attack him. As was Melindhra's attack on Mat

It is the most obvious connection.



On the Dead Tuatha'an question


Killer: Sammael

Motivation: to try to kill a ta'vern, who once live among Tuatha'an dressed performers during the Great Hunt festivals. Sammael's motto seems to be see a Tinker, kill'em.

Who was that ta'veren named?
Valan Luca.




On the Melindhra's attack on Matrim Cauthon


The Chosen Melindhra reported to was Rahvin, not Sammael.

Melindhra only attacked Mat, AFTER Caemlyn was named. Caemlyn is/was the place of rule of the Chosen Rahvin.


Plans: Who was Rand al'Thor to be directed to attack out of this group of Chosen: Rahvin, Sammael, Graendal, Lanfear?

Sammael.

Rahvin just was doing what three of the four Chosen, wanted to do. Aim Rand al'Thor at Sammael.

Sammael did not prefer this plan at all. In fact, Sammael did not help Rahvin against Rand al'Thor in Caemlyn at all (TFoH book).

Even Graendal later decided to abandon Rahvin, in Caemlyn and hide in a closet.

SamJ
09-03-2011, 11:55 AM
It is the most obvious connection, but I doubt it was a goad. There were no Sammael-associated markers with the Tinker attack, so why would Rand blame Sammael? It could be something as simple as 'Slayer likes killing Tinkers', but if RJ expected us to figure it out, then the most logical explanation is that someone was trying to turn Rand against the Aiel.

There is another connection that has just occurred to me . . . Herid Fel also died in LoC with a message undelivered to Rand. Now, I'm not suggesting that there is any connection between the two messages, but perhaps there could be between whoever commanded the murders.

So who sent the gholam after Fel? I've always thought Moridin was the most likely candidate (taking out a philosopher), and this would form a nice parallel with the various Ishy messages in EoTW. But that still leaves whatever was going on with the Tinkers as frustratingly obscure.

Terez
09-03-2011, 11:57 AM
There is another connection that has just occurred to me . . . Herid Fel also died in LoC with a message undelivered to Rand. Now, I'm not suggesting that there is any connection between the two messages, but perhaps there could be between whoever commanded the murders.
Dom at Wotmania/rafo has believed for a long time that Sammael sent the gholam because he didn't believe that Asmodean was dead. And so according to Dom, Sammael had Fel killed thinking that he was actually Asmodean in disguise. We know Sammael was ordering it, because he's the one that sent it after Mat in ACOS.

GonzoTheGreat
09-03-2011, 12:24 PM
Dom at Wotmania/rafo has believed for a long time that Sammael sent the gholam because he didn't believe that Asmodean was dead. And so according to Dom, Sammael had Fel killed thinking that he was actually Asmodean in disguise. We know Sammael was ordering it, because he's the one that sent it after Mat in ACOS.That actually makes a lot of sense.

Terez
09-03-2011, 12:51 PM
Oh, and technically he sent it after the Aes Sedai/Kin who were trying to find the stash. It just ended up going after Mat. Some think that Demandred was ordering the gholam in TOM. It appeared to be following Mat, but it did pass through Murandy. ;)

SamJ
09-03-2011, 04:44 PM
Dom at Wotmania/rafo has believed for a long time that Sammael sent the gholam because he didn't believe that Asmodean was dead. And so according to Dom, Sammael had Fel killed thinking that he was actually Asmodean in disguise. We know Sammael was ordering it, because he's the one that sent it after Mat in ACOS.

That would be pretty nasty irony for poor Fel

Terez
09-07-2011, 12:53 AM
I wonder if it's not also suspicious that the siswai'aman showed up in this book.

SamJ
09-07-2011, 02:59 AM
I wonder if it's not also suspicious that the siswai'aman showed up in this book.

I am intrigued. How so?

Terez
09-07-2011, 10:04 AM
Well, it makes the Wise Ones really uncomfortable. None of the Maidens do it. We still don't really get it yet; it's like these people have offered themselves up as slaves or interpreted prophecies in that way, or something. It could be something introduced by the evil side of things to cause dissension among the Aiel.

Zombie Sammael
09-07-2011, 10:18 AM
Well, it makes the Wise Ones really uncomfortable. None of the Maidens do it. We still don't really get it yet; it's like these people have offered themselves up as slaves or interpreted prophecies in that way, or something. It could be something introduced by the evil side of things to cause dissension among the Aiel.

There could be an "innocent" explanation; the WOs may simply be uncomfortable because they perceive a need for themselves to retain power/status among the Aiel, and the Aiel swearing to the Dragon threatens that in some way.

Terez
09-07-2011, 12:27 PM
There could be an "innocent" explanation
Well, no shit Sherlock.

confused at birth
09-07-2011, 12:59 PM
no shit Sherlock

are americans allowed to use this?

FelixPax
09-07-2011, 02:51 PM
I wonder if it's not also suspicious that the siswai'aman showed up in this book.

Siswai'aman as a group first appeared in the prior book, The Fires of Heaven, not Lord of Chaos. (See TFoH, Chapter 47 "Other Battles, Other Weapons")


Siswai'aman with spears and veils are a kin to a dead people walking, following 'The Plowman' off a verbal cliff in the Pit of Doom...

While a remnant of a remnant of the Tuatha'an/Lost Ones/Tinkers, Aiel Clans (e.g. Gaul, Bruan, Aviendha, Enaila), Sea Folk, Show Folk, Seanchan (e.g. Fortuona, Leilwin), Nobles, Commoners, Cast-outs (e.g. Rendra); Nakomi et al are the ones to survive, following 'The Dragon' & 'The Shield' soul's route to safety. These are the neo-Da'Shain Aiel, they shall become the followers of Valan Luca & Matrim Cauthon. They are the People.


He shall spill out the blood of those who call themselves Aiel as water on sand, and he shall break them as dried twigs, yet the remnant of a remnant shall he save, and they shall live.


'Remnant of a remnant' are the lucky followers of The Dragon & The Shield.


Who did Rhuarc choose to take to Dumai Wells among the Aiel Clans available?

Only those with a belief of the Siswai'aman, Wise Ones and who have a loyalty to the son of a Maiden.



Sorilea had been studying Perrin. Wise Ones’ eyes often made Perrin feel as Aes Sedai’s did, that he had been weighed to the ounce and measured to the inch. Sorilea made him feel he had been disassembled like a broken plow, every pin hefted and examined to see whether it should be mended or replaced. “Tell him everything, Rhuarc,” she said sharply.

Amys laid a hand on Rhuarc’s arm. “He has the right to know, shade of my heart. He is Rand al’Thor’s near-brother.” Her voice was gentle, her smell quite firm.

Rhuarc gave the Wise Ones a hard look, and Dobraine a contemptuous one. Finally he straightened to his full height. “I can take only Maidens and siswai’aman.” By his tone and his smell, he would rather lose an arm than speak those words. “Too many of the others will not dance the spears with Aes Sedai.” Dobraine’s lip curled in contempt.


The Lord of Chaos, Chapter 53 "The Feast of Lights" -- Perrin Aybara point of view; with Berelain, Sorilea, Faile, Loial, Dobraine, Sulin, Amys, Rhuarc

Notice how Robert Jordan dovetails a metaphoric thought about how Wise One Sorilea can disassemble a Broken Plow and replace it?


Yes, Sorilea is an absolute important key story line for AMoL Book. She has a role to play with both Valan Luca, and Matrim Cauthon. Translation: Rand's Plow is going to be replaced. Matrim Cauthon is that replacement Plow. Valan Luca remains the true Dragon.


Quite a bit of tension between Siswai'aman AND Maidens none of whom are hold Siswai'aman beliefs AND the Four Aiel Clan members left behind in Cairhien: Mandelain's Daryne Clan (Seia Doon Camar's Clan, he visited Harine's Sea Folk ship); Indirian's Codarra Clan (Red Shield Dedric's Clan); Janwin's Shiande Clan (Wise One Edarra with Perrin group).

However who holds as prisoner a 'remnant of a remnant' of the Shiado Aiel Clan Sept's in Cairhien?

These four above Aiel Clans, whom never were entirely sure about Rand al'Thor's claims.

Who else likely holds some number of Shiado Aiel as gai’shain?

The Five Aiel Clans originally placed in Illian by both Rand al'Thor and Matrim Cauthon: Jheran's Shaarad Clan; Dhearic's Reyn Clan; Bruan's Nakai Clan; Han's Tomanelle Clan; Erim's Chareen Clan. How did these Five Aiel Clans capture as gai'shain Shaido Aiel in Illain? Because Sammael put Shaido Aiel in Illain, not just in Tarabon, Amadicia, Altara, Murandy, Almoth Plain et al. Almost impossible to believe no Shaido Aiel were caught by these Five Aiel Clans in Illian on guard duty.

Additionally all Five Aiel Clan Chief's gave an Oath to wait on Matrim Cauthon's command to move, in Illian. Once Cauthon comes to Illian, with his Bannerman, I expect BIG THINGS to happen.

In any case, some number of these Illian based Aiel Clans should be apart of the 'remnant of a remnant'. Barring some hellish combination of:



A 3,000 year Ocean Flood
A 3,000 year Melting of both Polar Ice Caps at ONCE: Rivers Flood
Seanchan Invasion southward out of Murandy
Shadowspawn Invasion out of Portal Stones & the Ways
Sharan Armada Invades out of the East by Ships
Giants Invade out of the Shadow Coast Mountains
Demandred goes on a power trip with his new toy Giant Sa'angreal, and lays waste to the Capital of Illian.
Sea Folk Clans are instructed by the new Master of Blades to either abandon the Illianer's or aid the Seanchan Empire in fighting in Illian against the Aiel & Randlander's. The Sea Folk have split apart. Working Hypothesis: One of Moridin's pawns is the new Master of Blades, a Darkfriend. Mistress of Ships Zaida possesses no authority now, in a time of war. Zaida has been betrayed by her own husband. Alternative Working Hypothesis: Harine's Swordmaster Moad is Darkfriend. Moad is a widower, question is how did his wife die? How did Moad learn to ride a horse? (Still Moad being a darkfriend is a less probable alternative in IMHO, than Amel being one.)



One question about a remnant of a remnant, is how many Shaido Aiel gai'shain in Cairhien region have decided to become siswai'aman?


“I see you don’t believe it,” he said over his shoulder. None of the Maidens had donned the thing.
Aviendha hesitated before saying, “I do not know what to believe.” She spoke as quietly as before, yet she sounded angry, and unsure. “There are many beliefs, and the Wise Ones are often silent, as if they do not know the truth. Some say that in following you, we expiate the sin of our ancestors in . . . in failing the Aes Sedai.”

The catch in her voice startled him; he had never considered that she might be as worried as any other Aiel about what he had revealed of their past. Ashamed might be a better word than worried; shame was an important part of ji’e’toh. They were ashamed of what they had been—followers of the Way of the Leaf—and at the same time ashamed that they had abandoned their pledge to it.

“Too many have heard some version of part of the Prophecy of Rhuidean now,” she went on in a more controlled tone, for all the world as if she had heard a word of that prophecy herself before she began training to become a Wise One, “but it has been twisted. They know that you will destroy us . . . ” Her control faltered for the space of one deep breath. “But many believe that you will kill us all in endless dances of the spear, a sacrifice to atone for the sin. Others believe that the bleakness itself is a testing, to wear away all but the hard core before the Last Battle. I have even heard some say that the Aiel are now your dream, and that when you wake from this life, we will be no more.”

A grim set of beliefs, that. Bad enough that he had revealed a past they saw as shaming. It was a wonder they had not all left him. Or gone mad. “What do the Wise Ones believe?” he asked, as quietly as she.

“That what must be, will be. We will save what can be saved, Rand al’Thor. We do not hope to do more.”


The Fires of Heaven, Chapter 46 "Other Battles, Other Weapons" -- Rand al'Thor point of view; with Aviendha, Asmodean



Siswai'aman Gai'shan, Siswai'aman Warriors


In essence there is two different types of siswai'aman. One follows the Rand al'Thor; the another follows the ancient pledge of the Way of the Leaf.

Shaido Aiel gai'shain who wear the Siswai'aman are now pledged to Peace. They are a kin to Nakomi, except Nakomi seems to have lived among the Tuatha'an or Lost Ones, and these Shaido Aiel gai'shan siswai'aman have not. I'm referring to Shaido Aiel captured at Dumai Wells or in other parts of Cairhien. It's unknown if any Shaido Aiel in Tarabon, Illian, Altara joined a Tuatha'an Band to avoid the Seanchan.


The remnant of a remnant faction of Aiel to survive the Last Battle is most likely to be the servants, the Siswai'aman Gai'shan. Not the Siswai'aman Warriors, who are tied to Rand al'Thor.




Who's not a Siswai'aman?



Among broad groups: Aiel Maidens, Wise Ones, Therava's Shaido Aiel faction, Working Women & Children left behind in Three Folds Land by the Clans, Roofmistreses (a Sept's Banker), Aiel Clan's Traders in Rhuidean.
Among individuals: Rhuarc, Aviendha, Gaul, Sulin, Rhiale, Dorindha (Roofmistress), Sevanna.



Of course change is possible, group identity can be altered. One can become a follower, a servant of the Snake/Dragon. A servant of Matrim Cauthon & Valan Luca's.




================================================== ================================================== ==============


What did Birgitte once say about 'The Bannerman', who is the Snake/Dragon?


“The women who guarded you today, for a start,” she said, without so much as pretending to pause for thought, “and a few more that I’ll pick. Maybe twenty or so, altogether. Too few can’t protect you day and night, and you bloody well must be,” she put in firmly, though Elayne had not offered any protest. “Women can guard you where men can’t, and they’ll be discreet just by being who they are. Most people will think they’re ceremonial—your very own Maidens of the Spear—and we’ll give them something, a sash maybe, to make them look more so.” That earned her a very sharp look from Aviendha, which she affected not to notice. “The problem is who to command,” she said, frowning in thought. “Two or three nobles, Hunters, are already arguing for rank ‘sufficient to their station.’ The bloody women know how to give orders, but I’m not sure they know the right bloody orders to give. I could promote Caseille to lieutenant, but she’s more a bannerman at heart, I think.” Birgitte shrugged. “Maybe one of the others will show promise, but I think they are better followers than leaders.”


Winter's Heart, Chapter 10 "A Plan Succeeds" -- Elayne point of view; with Birgitte, Aviendha, Nynaeve

The future Bannerman for Matrim Cauthon, shall be a follower, not the leader.


The Dragon, The Coramoor has listened to and only followed the orders of one individual. He be, one Matrim Cauthon (KoD book). Yes, Valan Luca did that.

Terez
09-07-2011, 03:06 PM
Siswai'aman as a group first appeared in the prior book, The Fires of Heaven, not Lord of Chaos. (See TFoH, Chapter 47 "Other Battles, Other Weapons")
I did a lazy search on that one. But the timing is still the same, so the point is still the same. (It's only a matter of about a month or so, and we already know of Forsaken interference with the Aiel throughout books 4 and 5.)

GonzoTheGreat
09-08-2011, 04:27 AM
are americans allowed to use this?Terez has been in Europe without having been send there by the military, so to Real Americans she's almost French anyway, so she might as well use this phrase.

FelixPax
09-08-2011, 11:10 AM
Terez has been in Europe without having been send there by the military, so to Real Americans she's almost French anyway, so she might as well use this phrase.

Do you have anything on topic to materially add to this thread, Gonzo? Or did you just decide to become a idiotic comic by jabbing at Terez aimlessly? :rolleyes:

Zombie Sammael
09-08-2011, 11:14 AM
Do you have anything on topic to materially add to this thread, Gonzo? Or did you just decide to become a idiotic comic by jabbing at Terez aimlessly? :rolleyes:

Yeah! Jabbing at Terez constantly is the Younglings' job! Stop trying to steal our job, Gonzo!

GonzoTheGreat
09-08-2011, 11:32 AM
I thought that I was jabbing at American conservatives. But I have to admit that I wasn't doing so aimlessly. :p

I do think this thread is coming up with a couple of interesting loose ends, which may or may not get tied off in the final book.
-Dead Tinkers.
-Aiel impersonators.
-Siswai'aman.

And, just to add to the last mystery: as far as I've been able to find, the siswai'aman have not been mentioned since ACoS.
Edited to add:
Now I'm wondering whether the Caemlyn Aiel impersonators were the same ones (or of the same type, at least) as those that ate Barriga in the epilogue of ToM.

Zombie Sammael
09-08-2011, 11:36 AM
And, just to add to the last mystery: as far as I've been able to find, the siswai'aman have not been mentioned since ACoS.

The phenomenon has become commonplace among the Aiel and is no longer noteworthy to the characters, perhaps?

Although the Aiel are the People of the Dragon, they've always insisted that they follow the Car'a'carn, not the Dragon Reborn. The idea that some would become "spears of the Dragon" perhaps gives the lie to this, hence why it makes the Wise Ones uncomfortable.

I wonder if there might be any link between siswai'aman, the various strangenesses we mention with the Aiel in this thread, and the Red-Veiled Aiel from the end of TOM?

confused at birth
09-08-2011, 12:38 PM
Terez has been in Europe without having been send there by the military, so to Real Americans she's almost French anyway, so she might as well use this phrase.


what would being french have anything to do with what she said. it isnt french

Terez
09-08-2011, 01:58 PM
-Siswai'aman.

And, just to add to the last mystery: as far as I've been able to find, the siswai'aman have not been mentioned since ACoS.
Probably because we haven't seen the Aiel much since then. Hence the big drama scene in TOM.

Now I'm wondering whether the Caemlyn Aiel impersonators were the same ones (or of the same type, at least) as those that ate Barriga in the epilogue of ToM.
No red veils, no sharpened teeth, and a different demeanor altogether.

what would being french have anything to do with what she said. it isnt french
I got it, Gonzo. Just so you know.

FelixPax
09-09-2011, 09:53 AM
I do think this thread is coming up with a couple of interesting loose ends, which may or may not get tied off in the final book.

-Dead Tinkers.

A Forsaken's doings, mostly like Sammael's doings. Referring to the Tuatha'an Chel Vanin & Matrim Cauthon found, in route south from the town of Maerone.


-Aiel impersonators.


Verin has a strong motive, to push & pull both Rand al'Thor and the Aes Sedai's actions in Caemlyn. The pseudo-Aiel attack upon Demira was quite savy, imho.

Since then Demira is missing, from the story. There's a good reason for that I suspect too. Hope Brandon Sanderson is listening...

-Siswai'aman.

And, just to add to the last mystery: as far as I've been able to find, the siswai'aman have not been mentioned since ACoS.

A purposeful omission by Robert Jordan perhaps, so other parts of the story can catch-up?


Siswai'aman aren't mentioned as much after a certain point, because none of the major characters viewpoints are with Siswai'aman. Not Rand al'Thor, Perrin Abyara, Matrim Cauthon, Elayne Trakand et la. Rand and Perrin pretty much are without Aiel but for Maidens, Wise Ones, Gai'shan (or Clan Chiefs in Rand's case). Gaul isn't a Siswai'aman, nor are the Shaido Aiel found in Altara, either.

Robert Jordan & Brandon Sanderson have pretty much omitted directly discussing events in Cairhien, Illian surrounding the Aiel Clans & Siswai'aman. Point is 9-10 Aiel Clans worth of individuals have been basically off screen. (The 10th Clan is what's left of the Illain, Cairhien based Shaido Clan, including women, children & dolls.) Why?


Return to the Aiel Waste?

How many Aiel Waste Siswai'aman Warriors & Gai'shan have return to the Aiel Waste?

Nakomi's comments in 'Towers of Midnight' book to Aviendha, suggestion some amount of Aiel Warriors originally following Rand al'Thor to Cairhien have return to their home septs. Two Aiel Clan Chiefs in Cairhien, said as much to Rand al'Thor previously, they missed their wives left behind in the Aiel Waste. Mandelain, who's Chief of the Daryne Aiel Clan, misses his wives Jair and Corehuin.

Aviendha's own weaver sister's comments to Egwene al'Vere suggest she will and has returned to the Aiel Waste. If not, her husband will come look for her in Randland.


In terms of the Shaido who have become Siswai'aman Gai'shan, 'The Battle of Cairhien' was timed so that all of them shall remain Gai'shan when Sunday Noon occurs. That happened on Choren-10, Sep-10, or on Day 536 (http://www.stevenac.net/wot/tl0999.htm#book4), in 'The Fire of Heavens' book, Chapters 43 to 44.

Just imagine the Last Battle comes to Cairhien, and thousands of Shaido Siswai'aman Gai'shan will not fight, by taking up spears. Yup, Robert Jordan has foreshadowed that too.



Becoming a Giant Clan?



Recall the four Aiel Clans in Cairhien have had almost a year of socializing together. It's as if, they've begun to become one Giant Clan, not Four Individual Clans. Socialization by Aiel Society, and living in location for an extended period of time, will give these Aiel groups a chance to change. Yes, even the Shaido Gai'shan Siswai'aman serving these Four Aiel Clans.




Edited to add:
Now I'm wondering whether the Caemlyn Aiel impersonators were the same ones (or of the same type, at least) as those that ate Barriga in the epilogue of ToM.



Caemlyn Aiel impersonators or pseudo-Aiel, were Westlanders. A group who's aims were ultimately directed by Verin Sedai, I believe.
The Red Veiled groups of men will filled teeth to points, are mostly likely Sharans. Not Aiel. Not Westlanders.



Regarding that Barriga point of view in ToM, I'd suggest contrasting that with Windfinder Dorile din Eiran Long Feather comments to Aviendha.


“If it pleases the Light, I will speak with both of you,” Malin din Toral said, looking from Aviendha to Birgitte, “but I think I must hear your story first.” Birgitte began to look alarmed as the woman sat down across from her.

“Which means I can speak first with you, if it pleases the Light,” Dorile din Eiran told Aviendha. “I have read of the Aiel. If it pleases you, tell me, if an Aiel woman must kill a man every day, how are there any men left among you?”

Aviendha did her best not to stare. How could the woman believe such nonsense?


...

“Are you well, Aviendha?” Dorile din Eiran asked. “Even here, the motion of a ship sometimes affects shorefolk—No? And my questions do not offend? Then tell me. Do Aiel women truly tie a man down before you—I mean, when you and he—when you—” Cheeks reddened, she broke off with a weak smile. “Are many Aiel women as strong in the One Power as you?”


The Path of Daggers, Chapter 13 "The Bowl of the Winds" -- Aveindha point of view; with Windfinder Dorile din Eiran during a Bargain with the Mistress of the Ships in Ebou Dar


How could Dorile believe this, Aviendha asks?

Fairly easy to do, if some part of the Sharan's call themselves Aiel, and write books about them.



Where would a Sea Folk individual, like Windfinder Dorile get information of this nature?


Sharan port towns, in the far south. The place where Silk in the Westlands originates from.


Where might these so-called 'Red Veiled Aiel' live in greater Shara?


Considering how wet the Southern Shara port towns are, given Lanfear's former wet abode (Perrin POV), and it's equatorial location. I'd say the Shara 'Red Veiled Aiel' live in a drier location, a more distance location, than where the Southern Shara port towns exist.

A place nearer to the Aiel Waste, than the Southern Shara port towns. In others words, the Red Veiled Aiel are a distant concern of the Southern Shara port towns.

In terms of speculation, perhaps the 'Red Veiled Aiel' once were Aiel People's whom have been corrupted by the Shadow. Corrupted during and after the Trollocs Wars, when Trollocs entered Shara. Rhuarc & his People had to get this information about this from someone present during those invasions, who fled & survived.






An AMoL Prediction


Windfinder Dorile has a greater role to play, in the next book. Why?


Because Dorile has visited places few if any Windfinder's to Wavemistresses have been. Dorile unlike most of the eleven other Windfinders of Clan Wavemistresses, has had opportunities to meet groups & individuals few Sea Folk have:


Merilille's teachings
Kinswomen, in Caemlyn with Elayne
Aes Sedai at the Silver Swan, in Caemlyn
Aiel Clans, including Wise Ones, Apprentices, Chiefs et al in Caemlyn
Asha'man, just outside of Caemlyn
Elayne Trakand, now Queen of Andor
Logain. (Perhaps more than once?)
First Maid of Caemlyn Palace
Borderlander Rulers passing through Andor?



Caemlyn is a nexus of interaction, and Windfinder Dorile seems to had avoided Zaida commanding her around. Perhaps partly due to Sea Folk Clan politics, and Dorile's high status as a Clan Windfinder.... More importantly, Windfinder Dorile and Wavemistress Malin din Toral seem to know the Jendai Prophecies:


“The Bowl of the Winds,” Dorile din Eiran breathed. “To think it would be found again after two thousand years here! It must be the Coramoor. He must have—”

Nesta din Reas’ hands slapped together loudly. “Do I see a Wavemistress and her Windfinder, or two deckgirls at their first shipmeet?” Malin din Toral’s cheeks reddened with a proud anger, and she bent her head stiffly, pride in that as well. Twice as flushed, Dorile din Eiran bowed, touching fingertips to forehead, lips and heart.


A Crown of Swords, Chapter 13 "The Bowl of the Winds" -- Aviendha point of view


Likewise, Dorile's Wavemistress Malin din Toral Breaking Wave has an important role to play in AMoL Book. I'll have more thoughts about her in a bit.


================================================== ================================================== ==============

SamJ
09-11-2011, 12:29 PM
Ok, so I looked again at the Tinker murder scene (nothing like playing detective on a sunday afternoon).

Couple of things:

The men had been killed forming a line to let the women and children escape - but that failed because they ran into a second attack. This suggests to me troups, rather than any of the magical killers we have seen (so not a gholam attack - though that wasn't really a possibility I think).

Mat looks at the tracks and thinks horses have gone in several directions. This could mean:

1) the Tinker horses had fled in several directions (as they are not mentioned). That would mean that whoever did it wasn't interested in horses - which could suggest Aiel. It still seems a pretty thin lead to make the finder suspicious of an Aiel attack - particularly as it might have been found by people who weren't expert trackers. Anyway, it could fit with the theory that this was meant to turn Rand against the Aiel, but it still feels a little thin. Also, I would expect the horses to be harnessed or hobbled and it would be odd for a band of murders to set them free to wander.

2) That the attackers were mounted and had left in separate groups, presumably also taking the Tinker horses as they are not mentioned as having been killed. Or that they had attacked to take the horses. This strikes me as the kind of thing a group of killers like Daved Hanlon's men might do now they have been thrown out of Andor. And it might be on the path from Aringill where they were stationed IIRC. But, I'm not sure it fits with his MO (I would expect the women to survive for a little while if Hanlon or a similar kind of person had them). However, if it was a group of darkfriends/mercenary brigands, it still seems strange that the Tinkers would try and get a message to Rand.

Interestingly, Mat makes no mention of any weapons left over, no characteristic arrowheads or broken spears to help diagnose and it's the kind of thing I would expect Mat to notice.

It still feels like a mystery to me, so I'm, hoping we'll get another clue in AMOL or that Brandon replies to my question when he's less busy!

the_collective
09-11-2011, 02:39 PM
I can't believe that we've gotten through 57 comments and no one has brought up the possibility that the message "Tell the Dragon Reborn" was not finished. Like the Cave of Joseph of Aramathea whereupon the brave knights of King Arthur first learned of the "Castle Aaaggghhhh." <as in: "He must've died while carving it">

This was my first reaction to the message and one I've never been able to fully shake. Makes it even more puzzling to consider, though.

Zombie Sammael
09-11-2011, 02:53 PM
I can't believe that we've gotten through 57 comments and no one has brought up the possibility that the message "Tell the Dragon Reborn" was not finished. Like the Cave of Joseph of Aramathea whereupon the brave knights of King Arthur first learned of the "Castle Aaaggghhhh." <as in: "He must've died while carving it">

This was my first reaction to the message and one I've never been able to fully shake. Makes it even more puzzling to consider, though.

It's likely because no-one has any idea what else it might have been, although of course the possibility is raised in the books as well. Do you have any good theories?

the_collective
09-11-2011, 03:17 PM
It's likely because no-one has any idea what else it might have been, although of course the possibility is raised in the books as well. Do you have any good theories?

Well that's a fair question, isn't it?

I do not, however. It'll be some time before I get to that scene in my reread, and I will have a better idea then, but as it is I don't remember the books well enough to speculate.

This whole topic that Terez brought up in the first place regarding a possible Aiel-related tie linking all of these events of the Shadow was lost on me the first 2 read-throughs. I had not considered looking on the internet to solve these great mysteries at the time. More's the pity...

The Unreasoner
09-11-2011, 04:04 PM
I believe the castle was actually named "Aagggh".

And maybe the message was written to be exactly as it appears. A mystery/rumor starter. The shared history of the Aiel and the Tinkers is known to only a few, and I doubt any among those few would actually believe that Aiel were behind the attack.

And so we have a gruesome massacre with almost no motive conceivable to the average Randlander. Everyone is familiar with the nonviolent nature of the Tinkers. Most people believe that they are politically insignificant. And so, when confronted with such an atrocity, it is seen by the average Randlander as violence for its own sake. Senseless. Horrific. And such a bizarre and cryptic message would be communicated, if perhaps in a corrupted form, along with the rumors such senseless violence would generate.

It fits what we know of Carridin's terrorist cells. Niall's plan was to have people to turn on Rand; or to fill them with doubt, fear, and revulsion to him and his cause. Balwer would have been able to reverse-engineer the necessary seeds for the requisite rumors. Being able to accurately sift through rumors to find the truth probably allowed him to better understand how to generate plausible false ones. Even (relatively) reliable intelligence networks (like Egwene's) were unable to recognize that the terrorist cells were not real Dragonsworn, possibly due to carefully crafted rumors.

I'm not saying that Balwer helped plan the killing of the Tinkers (or was even aware of it), but the nature of the rumors provided suggests a skilled hand. From what we see on Toman Head, the Questioners are an effective (and brutal) black ops unit, and Carridin appears to be skilled with planning such operations, and with units hiding/deceiving the public eye. It may have been common practice for Niall to give Carridin a kind of procedural guide that described operational parameters that needed to be observed, or perhaps detailed generalized mission plans, which allowed Carridin to effectively plan how to carry out Niall's overall goal. The report itself could be the direct brainchild of Balwer, or perhaps one of Niall's creation influenced by Balwer's advice.

After all, if Joe Randlander ran into the site before Mat burned the wall, what would be different? Mat thinks of Tinkers providing useful information before (with ta'veren to ensure that the information was brought to the right ears). What if, here, ta'veren brought Mat to the Tinkers so he could preclude the spread of disinformation? The message itself was probably intentionally vague. Some people may see it as a taunt by the Dragon's enemies, others as a failed attempt to pass on intel, and a few might read it as: "Tell the Dragon Reborn: (Mission Complete)." Or any of a thousand other possibilities.

A deeply ingrained fear of the Dragon may lead some people doubting the first, the Tinkers' supposed insignificance may cause some to doubt the second. And the third interpretation might be promoted by other operations. Agents might also actively argue against the first two. Balwer knows how to spread multiple independent rumors that feed off one another, this massacre may be just the seed event for one of them.

Maybe the important thing was just getting the word "Dragon" in there. Information distortion can do a lot of things. Maybe a potential iteration of the rumor claims that the Dragon told his followers to kill the Tinkers, instead of the one being told.

FelixPax
09-11-2011, 05:55 PM
I can't believe that we've gotten through 57 comments and no one has brought up the possibility that the message "Tell the Dragon Reborn" was not finished.

Those Tinkers died roughly half way between Maerone and Tear, near the river.

Eleven days since leaving Maerone, and they were halfway to Tear or a little better, moving faster than Mat had really hoped for.

Lord of Chaos, Chapter 22 "Heading South" -- Mat point of view

On a Hill, on the edge of Haddon Mirk forest. The Ogier Stedding Jenshin is in Haddon Mirk forest (LoC, Ch.20). Likewise a False Dragon who could not channel was hiding in Haddon Mirk (TGH,Ch4). Former nations of Khododomar, Talmour are places Tuatha'an in theory should feel safe from human threats. Additionally there is a Pass to the Aiel Waste east of this location. One of the Four known passes to the Aiel Waste or Three Folds Land.


"Tell the Dragon Reborn", I've thought for a while meant tell Valan Luca. In other words, Chel Vanin or Matrim Cauthon needs to tell Valan Luca of this event. (Chel's last known to be in Tar Valon, as of ToM Book.)


Tinker's likely were among the entertainers hired in Illian for the celebrations leading up to the send off of the 'The Great Hunt' for the Horn of Valore. After the send off, the Tinkers wouldn't stick around in a City. They'd leave.

Valan Luca claims to have been in Illian during the celebrations. However Valan Luca left before the Hunter were officially sent off. (Luca's actions are akin to a Sooner's.)

Sammael at one point in the story claimed he felt like a ta'veren. Problem for him is, Valan Luca was the most likely the cause of those ta'veren events in Illian, not Sammael himself. (At the time two other ta'veren--Matrim, Rand--were heading southward on Bayle Domon's boat to Whitebridge. Two other ta'veren storms providing cover while Valan Luca escapes Illian for Tsofu Stedding, the Nine Rings Inn & Cairhien's Foregate of ex-Tinkers. Graendal later in TGH book has the same problem, four ta'verens storms causing disorganization to Almoth Plan & Arad Doman areas.)


Sammael would not have likely seen nor visited Valan Luca in Illian. Why not? Because Sammael does not care more for musical & circus entertainers at all. A big waste of time and energy in his words.


There was something different in the lower part of the chamber since his last visit, but he could not see what. Three long wading pools ran down the center of the hall, each with a fountain—sleek forms, motion frozen in stone—that sent water almost to the carved marble ribs of the arched ceiling overhead. Men and women sported in the pools wearing scraps of silk or less, while others garbed in little more performed along the sides, acrobats and jugglers, dancers in varied styles and musicians playing flutes and horns, drums and all sorts of stringed instruments. Of every size, every shade of skin and hair and eyes, each was more physically perfect than the last. It was all meant to amuse whoever stood on the dais. It was idiocy. A waste of time and energy. Typical of Graendal.


Lord of Chaos, Chapter 6 "Threads Woven of Shadow" -- Sammael point of view; with Graendal in Arad Doman



Readers also know that Sammael strongly believes:

The battlefield was here. The Great Lord’s first touch when he broke free would land here. The rest of the world would be whipped by the fringes of storms, even racked by storms, but those storms would generate here.


Lord of Chaos, Chapter 6 "Threads Woven of Shadow" -- Sammael point of view; with Graendal in Arad Doman


The Dragon is a Human Storm. A storm at one with the land.

The Unreasoner
09-11-2011, 06:01 PM
1. In LOC 22, 'Heading South', Vanin discovers the Tinker caravan. Someone with knowledge of the Aiel feeling toward Tinkers might have set this up in Mat's path deliberately, thinking he would blame the Aiel because he knows of their prejudice and because there are many bands of Aiel heading south with the Band (but separately, since they move faster). In case Mat wasn't inclined to believe that...
I think that if this was really intended to target Rand's opinion of the Aiel, the perpetrator took many chances and possessed a very fragmented understanding of the factors involved. First, the perpetrator would need to have grossly underestimated Mat's military expertise, as only the most ignorant would not be able to recognize obvious differences in style. And Rand would probably doubt the conclusions anyway. He has a rudimentary knowledge of ji'e'toh, and such wanton violence against definite non-combatants seems comparable to killing gai'shain. With swords. It's almost anti-Aiel, actively rejecting ji'e'toh and other Aiel tenets. Like unveiling to kill, and doing knife tricks (or using simple weapons) instead of going for the quick kill (like with the Power). The average Randlander could have been the target of such disinformation though (from any of a number of instigators) as the Aiel were traveling in the proximity, and they have a (undeserved) reputation for senseless violence.
2. In the same chapter, Aiel attempt to kill Mat in his sleep. Unfortunately for them, he wasn't in his tent. They were transported there by gateway. This was most likely not a simple assassination attempt, because it was doomed to fail (more because of Mat's ta'verenness than anything else). More likely, it was an attempt to turn Rand against the Aiel, with the unlikely possibility of a bonus should the Aiel succeed.
I agree with this reasoning, but believe the reverse. Stealthy Aiel assassins moved directly to a target by gateway in the night...it sounds almost foolproof. We've seen legitimate assassination attempts by the Forsaken (and others) with way less chance of succeeding. And almost everyone wants Rand to turn on the Aiel, or at least they want him to depend on/trust them less. Taim wants Rand to fully rely on the BT, The Aes Sedai (both factions) want Rand to rely on them, the Shadow could be pushing for general paranoia and and dissention, the Empire wants the Dragon as subject and needs Rand to be distanced from his followers/power base, and even other Randland nations want top billing in the Dragon's ensemble. Reminding Rand that there are Darkfriends among the Aiel could do all of these things, although this specific case requires forces with gateways and access to Aiel assassins (presumably Darkfriend or Compelled, but any Shaido would work here too, though the Wise Ones would need to have been kept ignorant).
3. In LOC 46, Demira Eriff is attacked by fake Aiel (she notes their dark eyes, and they call her a 'witch'). This could be a dual attempt to turn Rand against the Aiel, and to turn the Aes Sedai against Rand.
Again, I think it is very possible that there is an effort (or multiple efforts) to cause general dissension within the Dragon's forces (and specifically concerning the Aiel, as they are those closest to him), but that may only be incidental here. The perpetrator of this attack didn't take many pains to pass the attackers off as Aiel, and the garb may have been a way for the attackers to blend in to the city. If Demira really believed they were Aiel, so much the better. But I have said that I think Verin is behind this one. And even if it was an attempt to turn Rand against the Aiel or to turn the Aes Sedai against Rand, it does seem to need to be either/or. If the event turned the Aes Sedai against Rand, they probably would not have remained so if they told Rand of the attack and he sided with them against the Aiel.
Whether or not the third incident is connected, it seems highly likely that the first two were connected, and I think Sammael has the best motive.
Agreed. And Sammael appears to have the means too. There are multiple campaigns to turn the public against the Dragonsworn or the Aiel, to turn Rand against his followers and other light forces, and to turn the forces of the light against themselves; but Sammael is linked to two of the most effective efforts, both possibly seen here.

Sammael was aware of Carridin, and likely knew of his actions in Murandy and Altara; maybe even studied them while in Illian. Maybe he snatched up a few of the bands and spread them out between Cairhien and Tear. It is very similar to what he did with the Shaido: they both poisoned the public view of their counterparts, promoted general chaos, and distributed random armed forces that could either legitimately engage the Dragon (the Shaido) or provide a localized source of agents to be recruited from for future operations. Maybe Sammael's plan was just a modified version of Niall's (And maybe Sammael isn't as clever as he thinks. Or at least the Niall/Balwer team is of legendary status).

With the first case, maybe Mat was not to find it (or at least not first. If he was meant to find it, it was probably a taunt, claiming that entire march would be filled with these sites). It was probably a sort of political harrying, a propaganda campaign to turn the public against Mat, and maybe Sammael gets lucky and a few skirmishes break out, removing a few enemy soldiers early on. Or he gets really lucky, and a local whose family was murdered kills Mat. If the site with the Tinkers was the only one, then ta'veren probably was what led Mat to increase the march speed when and as he did. Or perhaps ta'veren is what brought Mat Vanin.

The attack on the tent almost certainly was Sammael. He very easily could have grabbed a few Shaido Darkfriends (or Couladin fanatics) around the time he first met Sevanna. He can channel, so an obvious source for the gateway. And he didn't just channel the tent to ash because he (1). already tried, and ran into the foxhead (2). plays defense, so unlikely to make a direct move on hostile territory (maybe he suspected wards too, but he was willing to make a gateway; and there weren't any wards anyway).

Or (3), which is: he's a Forsaken, and Forsaken only very rarely are able to actually affect the plot.