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Terez
09-30-2011, 05:07 PM
Now, to fire a gun that has been sitting on the mantle since the middle (chapters 30-40) of book 3. #AMoL (http://twitter.com/#%21/search?q=%23AMoL). Guess away.
And then a link to Chekhov's Gun (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chekhov%27s_gun). ;) Mat's luck, maybe? Could be a lot of things.

Lambada
09-30-2011, 05:20 PM
I may be mistaken, but it could be the first time we heard the phrase "The Dark One's own luck".

With ta'veren the luck is meant to balance with equal unlucky events. Yet we don't see that from Matt AFAIK. Perhaps the Dark One has augmented his ta'veren?

sandoz12
09-30-2011, 05:22 PM
Maybe Chapter 35 and Perrin's dream of Rand being consumed by a circle of Myrddral?

Otherwise of course Mat's luck seems obvious.

Tomp
09-30-2011, 05:33 PM
Maybe some red ajah sisters recognise Thom and acts on it (afraid some of the red ajah remembers him), chapter 31.

Tamyrlin
09-30-2011, 05:34 PM
Literally firing of a cannon? :)

janschulz
09-30-2011, 05:35 PM
I would go for the darkhounds. The "big pack", which crossed Perins path, is still not used yet...

Muirenn
09-30-2011, 05:37 PM
Forcible turning to the shadow using 13 channelers weaving through 13 myrddraal.

Edit: And wouldn't ya know it, my TDR book is MIA so I can't check the reference. It's a Black Ajah conspiracy I tell ya!

sleepinghour
09-30-2011, 05:39 PM
The conversation between Ba'alzamon and Lanfear is also interesting in the light of what happened at the end of ToM.
“Do you serve yourself now, Lanfear?” Ba’alzamon’s voice was soft, but flame raged continuously in his eyes and mouth.
“Have you abandoned your oaths to the Great Lord of the Dark?”
For an instant the darkness nearly obliterated him, only the glowing fires showing through.
“They are not so easily broken as the oaths to the Light you forsook, proclaiming your new master in the very Hall of the Servants. Your master claims you forever, Lanfear. Will you serve, or do you choose an eternity of pain, of endless dying without release?”

sandoz12
09-30-2011, 05:39 PM
Forcible turning to the shadow using 13 channelers weaving through 13 myrddraal.

But wasn't this gun introduced a lot earlier in Egwene's testing?

Tomp
09-30-2011, 05:45 PM
I like the darkhounds theory.

I don't remember exactly, but doesn't Faile refer to Old Grim with the darkhounds.

I don't have the book in front of me, writing from memory.

Nelal Hurcran
09-30-2011, 05:46 PM
Edit: And wouldn't ya know it, my TDR book is MIA so I can't check the reference. It's a Black Ajah conspiracy I tell ya!

Use Encyclopaedia-WoT (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/). It's great for figuring out what happened when.

As it happens, though, Egwene's Accepted test happened in chapter 22.

Muirenn
09-30-2011, 05:46 PM
Well, bother, what chapter is her testing? I'm seriously bad with what happened in which chapter. Which is why I
initially went to check the reference.

Edit: And y'all post really freakin' fast today! Okay, I was off by 8 chapters, I'll take that as a margin of error. :)

Tamyrlin
09-30-2011, 05:47 PM
TITLE: Dragon Reborn
CHAPTER: 37 - Fires in Cairhien
She had dreamed of Perrin with a wolf, and with a falcon, and a hawk - and the falcon and the hawk fighting - of Perrin running from someone deadly, and Perrin stepping willingly over the edge of a towering cliff while saying, "It must be done. I must learn to fly before I reach the bottom." There had been one dream of an Aiel, and she thought that had to do with Perrin, too, but she was not sure. And a dream of Min, springing a steel trap but somehow walking through it without so much as seeing it. There had been dreams of Mat, too. Of Mat with dice spinning 'round him - she felt she knew where that one came from - of Mat being followed by a man who was not there - she still did not understand that; there was a man following, or maybe more than one, but in some way there was no one there - of Mat riding desperately toward something unseen in the distance that he had to reach, and Mat with a woman who seemed to be tossing fireworks about. An Illuminator, she assumed, but that made no more sense than anything else.

It's a long shot, but it's fun that it's within the parameters, but we've since heard mention of it since...so, likely not.

Terez
09-30-2011, 05:47 PM
But wasn't this gun introduced a lot earlier in Egwene's testing?
Yes, but this is a better example of a Chekhov's Gun than anything else brought up so far - we need something that was introduced, and then never used.

Terez
09-30-2011, 05:50 PM
Use Encyclopaedia-WoT (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/). It's great for figuring out what happened when.

As it happens, though, Egwene's Accepted test happened in chapter 22.
Happy birthday. :)

Tamyrlin
09-30-2011, 05:50 PM
And a dream of Min, springing a steel trap but somehow walking through it without so much as seeing it.

Has this happened?

rdmaxwell
09-30-2011, 05:52 PM
oops. I was thinking of the wrong book

Terez
09-30-2011, 05:54 PM
And a dream of Min, springing a steel trap but somehow walking through it without so much as seeing it.
Has this happened?
Yup. She sprung the steel trap in the Tower by giving Elaida what she needed to depose Siuan.

Aulis Vaara
09-30-2011, 05:54 PM
I may be mistaken, but it could be the first time we heard the phrase "The Dark One's own luck".

With ta'veren the luck is meant to balance with equal unlucky events. Yet we don't see that from Matt AFAIK. Perhaps the Dark One has augmented his ta'veren?

While the Checkov's Gun could well be Matt's luck, I do feel the need to point out that the Ta'veren phenomenon of changing the odds really only applies to others within the Ta'veren's radius of influence. And even then only to those of whom the Ta'veren has no need.

Ta'veren themselves are luckier than the average person already, and it certainly isn't balanced! Everything has always seemed to go Rand's way, against the odds. Less so for Perrin, but he is still getting the things he needs without getting anything substantially negative on his plate.

Matt is just exceptionally lucky. It MIGHT be the Dark One's own luck, but I rather doubt it.

I personally have no idea what the Chekhov's gun is, though, it's been too long since I read The Dragon Reborn to even remember what was in those chapters. From the answers I read here, I would go for the turning to the dark trick. It was long overdue.

Terez
09-30-2011, 05:58 PM
While the Checkov's Gun could well be Matt's luck, I do feel the need to point out that the Ta'veren phenomenon of changing the odds really only applies to others within the Ta'veren's radius of influence. And even then only to those of whom the Ta'veren has no need.

Ta'veren themselves are luckier than the average person already, and it certainly isn't balanced! Everything has always seemed to go Rand's way, against the odds. Less so for Perrin, but he is still getting the things he needs without getting anything substantially negative on his plate.

Matt is just exceptionally lucky. It MIGHT be the Dark One's own luck, but I rather doubt it.
RJ said that it was, in a way:

DragonCon 4 September 2005 - Emma reporting (http://theoryland.yuku.com/topic/9912)

Question: In The Dragon Reborn, Lanfear visits Mat as he is recuperating from his One Power surgery over the dagger. At one point she stretches out her hand towards him and he feels a tingle going over him, somebody interrupts them, and she turns her head and sobs, at about the same time a member of Black Ajah stole angreal and ter'angreal6 (https://docs.google.com/View?docID=dcjspjqg_70dtxtgjg6&revision=_latest#FOOTNOTE-6) out of the Tower cache, one of which was a ter'angreal that was known to have some effect on chance. So it was about this time that Mat's really really really weird luck and the dice rolling in his head began. Is this a connection or coincidence?
Jordan: That is a coincidence. When they say that Mat has the Dark One's own luck, he can get as mad as he wants to, but in a way it is true. It wasn't a gift from Lanfear, though.

sandoz12
09-30-2011, 05:58 PM
I personally have no idea what the Chekhov's gun is, though, it's been too long since I read The Dragon Reborn to even remember what was in those chapters. From the answers I read here, I would go for the turning to the dark trick. It was long overdue.

Problem is, as pointed out above, this Gun is introduced in chapters 30-40 while the turning to the dark trick is introduced in chapter 22. Therefore, it cannot be the turning to the dark gun.

Terez
09-30-2011, 05:59 PM
I think, because of the link, that we are talking of a weapon here. I'm going to predict that Brandon is refering to the bloodknife Gawyn was toying with in Chapter 33.
The Bloodknives weren't introduced until TOM.

Nelal Hurcran
09-30-2011, 06:05 PM
Happy birthday. :)

Thanks! (though it has nothing to do with the board in question. :P)


Edit: And y'all post really freakin' fast today! Okay, I was off by 8 chapters, I'll take that as a margin of error. :)



@BrandSanderson I'm sure with how conscious you are of us examining your every word you checked, so are you SURE it's in those chapters?
4thAge

@4thAge 99% sure.
BrandSanderson

@BrandSanderson @4thAge Oh, that's harsh! Now we can't be sure you know what you're talking about!
Terez27


Terez may not be sure, but that assuages my fears of it being in any other chapter.

Tamyrlin
09-30-2011, 06:08 PM
Sounds like a fun break it down by chapter kind of mystery.

Davian93
09-30-2011, 06:11 PM
If it is Mat's luck...why/how did he get the DO's luck?

We know, from RJ, that it has something to do with the DO but how and why. Why would the DO give his enemy an advantage like that? Was it by accident, on purpose? etc?

How does one enhance luck like that?

What chapter were the ter'angreal stolen by the BA mentioned (looking for it on WoT Encyclopedia but I'm too lazy to walk across my living room to the bookshelf to grab the book). I was thinking maybe it was the dice/luck changing ter'angreal...or one of the others.

Muirenn
09-30-2011, 06:14 PM
Bleh, my posts are all choppy because I'm chasing the kiddo at the same time. I'm sure none of you have any idea how that goes...:P

Anyway, I actually strongly suspect that the 13x13 trick was used in ToM off screen, and we saw the effects via Tarna. However that is unconfirmed. It was the first thing I thought of when I saw Brandon's challenge. And I'm pretty sure it's mentioned in chapters 30-40 also (it's mentioned several times throughout the book, though the first is in Egwene's testing). I'll hold out & be the 1%!

I am thinking it's time to finally break down & get the ebooks of WoT. I've got a nice shiny B&N gift card that is begging to be used. :)

Davian93
09-30-2011, 06:20 PM
Bleh, my posts are all choppy because I'm chasing the kiddo at the same time. I'm sure none of you have any idea how that goes...:P

Anyway, I actually strongly suspect that the 13x13 trick was used in ToM off screen, and we saw the effects via Tarna. However that is unconfirmed. It was the first thing I thought of when I saw Brandon's challenge. And I'm pretty sure it's mentioned in chapters 30-40 also (it's mentioned several times throughout the book, though the first is in Egwene's testing). I'll hold out & be the 1%!

I am thinking it's time to finally break down & get the ebooks of WoT. I've got a nice shiny B&N gift card that is begging to be used. :)

Well, there are really strong hints it was used on the Sisters at the Black Tower as you say...I somewhat wonder if it was that.

Keelan86
09-30-2011, 06:21 PM
Chapter 35: Zarine/Faile calls herself "Mandarb" slip of tongue giving out her darkfriend codename eg. Bors aka Jaichim Carridin.

I know it's probably absolute nonsense, but hey!!

Crispin's Crispian
09-30-2011, 06:22 PM
IMO that would be a bit of a letdown, since we've already seen the effects introduced (or so we assume). Just seeing it on-screen will be cool, but not a big surprise.

The Unreasoner
09-30-2011, 06:54 PM
Was I super temp-banned? Or is it the 150 people online now (also, 150? why?)?


I wrote up a short post, here's a shorter recap:

1. What will ZS think of this thread? I at first thought it was just the other, renamed

2. I like the turnings idea, plus RJ actually called it a 'gun'

3. How firm is the number range? When did the Myrdraal try to buy Eg/El/Ny (presumably to turn)?

4. Who? Will it be a major character turning? One of the only ones to actively worry about it?

5. "How much do you trust Mat Cauthon?" (long shot) Will Mat help 'fix' it, in some way?/Does the proximity of the comments from BS possibly link Mat to the 'gun?

Terez
09-30-2011, 06:58 PM
I think Brandon was probably informed that the fandom wasn't too excited about his previous clue, and so he gave us a better one.

Muirenn
09-30-2011, 06:58 PM
2. I like the turnings idea, plus RJ actually called it a 'gun'



This is what made me think of it right off.

Terez
09-30-2011, 07:00 PM
I agree that it's probably not that, partly because we've already seen the turning (agree with CC it would be lame for that reason), and also because it was introduced in chapter 22.

Volarin832
09-30-2011, 07:07 PM
I am new to this forum but I think I have an idea of what it might be. It is sort of a long shot and a bit of a throwaway line but in Chapter 32, Thom says, “I don’t know why you might think that,” Thom said dryly. “Next you could try telling the Lord Captain Commander of the Whitecloaks he should marry the Amyrlin Seat.” This may be a reference to Galad and Egwene perhaps?

The Unreasoner
09-30-2011, 07:13 PM
I agree that it's probably not that, partly because we've already seen the turning
I was thinking more along the lines of an on screen turning.

It's not my favorite 'gun' (Fain planning to kill the DO is, I doubt it's there though).

Pronaos
09-30-2011, 07:18 PM
Rand is going to go to the Blight and kneel to the Dark One. Thirteen black Ajah will channel through thirteen fades to consume him and make him into a Forsaken. The Children of the Light will decry him as a darkfiend and war will erupt between forces. As a Forsaken, Rand will break the seals holding the Dark One prisoner.

An army of Aiel will be first to the Bore, and the Dark One will direct his armies against them...but at Aviendha's direction the Aiel will lay down their weapons as their ancestors did, which will break their culture and destroy them as a people while also stirring memories in Rand's new form. As they are about to be destroyed, Lan's army will arrive and fight back.

The Seanchan, the Band, Aes Sedai, and finally the Children will all fight and stand defiant against the Dark One. The Dark One, desperate, will take over Rand to become the ultimate force of darkness. The battle will become more desperate. Then Padan Fain will come to kill Rand. The Dark One will try to stop him, only to be held back by Lews Therin. Padan Fain will stab Rand and his blood will stain the ground. The Dark One is consumed into Mashadar, which will flood into the bore to become its eternal occupant.

The fight ends with Nynaeve and Moiraine rushing to Rand's side as his eyes flutter closed. The chapter ends.

Rand wakes surrounded by his friends and being held by Tam. He no longer has access to either source. While his friends try to comfort him, the leaders of the world are in chaos, turmoil. They turn to Rand to find out how they should move forward. He announces that he is no longer the Dragon, and he is very tired, and that he just wants to go home.

Final scene, he's in Emond's field, his son running around him. We find out that all has become right, with the Seanchan back home, Mat as their ambassador, Egwene as the head of the White Tower, Elayne as the queen of Caemlyn, Perrin the Lord of the Two Rivers, etc. Moiraine comes to visit, bringing Min with her. They have a pleasant chat, Rand kisses Min, book ends. A wind blows over his shoulders, continues on up to the Blight where it finds Mashadar trying to take form under the newly sealed Bore, and we hear for the final time there are no beginnings and no ends to the Wheel of Time.

Keelan86
09-30-2011, 07:22 PM
1. Since only turning is mentioned, but not a specific character could it be Alivia. It might coincide with Min's viewings later on.

2. Mat's realisation of going completely Modern Warfare with Aludra's help

Terez
09-30-2011, 07:41 PM
I am new to this forum but I think I have an idea of what it might be. It is sort of a long shot and a bit of a throwaway line but in Chapter 32, Thom says, “I don’t know why you might think that,” Thom said dryly. “Next you could try telling the Lord Captain Commander of the Whitecloaks he should marry the Amyrlin Seat.” This may be a reference to Galad and Egwene perhaps?
If Brandon had called it a foreshadowing, that might be a possibility, but a Chekhov's Gun is something else altogether.

Davian93
09-30-2011, 07:51 PM
I doubt its the Forced Turning if only because its first mentioned by Sheriam a full 8 chapters before the window given.

Ninya Evoneigh
09-30-2011, 08:18 PM
Rand is going to go to the Blight and kneel to the Dark One. Thirteen black Ajah will channel through thirteen fades to consume him and make him into a Forsaken. The Children of the Light will decry him as a darkfiend and war will erupt between forces. As a Forsaken, Rand will break the seals holding the Dark One prisoner.

An army of Aiel will be first to the Bore, and the Dark One will direct his armies against them...but at Aviendha's direction the Aiel will lay down their weapons as their ancestors did, which will break their culture and destroy them as a people while also stirring memories in Rand's new form. As they are about to be destroyed, Lan's army will arrive and fight back.

The Seanchan, the Band, Aes Sedai, and finally the Children will all fight and stand defiant against the Dark One. The Dark One, desperate, will take over Rand to become the ultimate force of darkness. The battle will become more desperate. Then Padan Fain will come to kill Rand. The Dark One will try to stop him, only to be held back by Lews Therin. Padan Fain will stab Rand and his blood will stain the ground. The Dark One is consumed into Mashadar, which will flood into the bore to become its eternal occupant.

The fight ends with Nynaeve and Moiraine rushing to Rand's side as his eyes flutter closed. The chapter ends.

Rand wakes surrounded by his friends and being held by Tam. He no longer has access to either source. While his friends try to comfort him, the leaders of the world are in chaos, turmoil. They turn to Rand to find out how they should move forward. He announces that he is no longer the Dragon, and he is very tired, and that he just wants to go home.

Final scene, he's in Emond's field, his son running around him. We find out that all has become right, with the Seanchan back home, Mat as their ambassador, Egwene as the head of the White Tower, Elayne as the queen of Caemlyn, Perrin the Lord of the Two Rivers, etc. Moiraine comes to visit, bringing Min with her. They have a pleasant chat, Rand kisses Min, book ends. A wind blows over his shoulders, continues on up to the Blight where it finds Mashadar trying to take form under the newly sealed Bore, and we hear for the final time there are no beginnings and no ends to the Wheel of Time.



This is possibly the best completely off the wall prediction I've ever read, both for amusement factor and plausibility. :p

That said, I really wish I had a copy of TDR. Gonna have to hunt one down.

Lupusdeusest
09-30-2011, 08:42 PM
The wording has me looking for something near a fire/ on the hearthstone/ on the mantlepiece etc. Scanning through Ch 33 now. Lol. Probably nutty but fun anyway

Scimystic
09-30-2011, 08:43 PM
I just noticed it recently in rereading Dragon Reborn--Egwene is having a TAR dream, and one of the things she sees is 'Rand, in a dry and dusty place, with small creatures entering his skin'. Everything else in that dream is already known to have happened, or we're pretty sure of how it's going to happen, except for that one image.
So, what does it all mean?

arioch
09-30-2011, 08:47 PM
I just noticed it recently in rereading Dragon Reborn--Egwene is having a TAR dream, and one of the things she sees is 'Rand, in a dry and dusty place, with small creatures entering his skin'. Everything else in that dream is already known to have happened, or we're pretty sure of how it's going to happen, except for that one image.
So, what does it all mean?

That's just the dragon symbols settling on his arms, I think.

Terez
09-30-2011, 08:48 PM
That's just the dragon symbols settling on his arms, I think.
Indeed; it represents his passage through the Rhuidean ter'angreal (hence the dust).

The Unreasoner
09-30-2011, 08:52 PM
“Do you serve yourself now, Lanfear?” Ba’alzamon’s voice was soft, but flame raged continuously in his eyes and mouth. “Have you abandoned your oaths to the Great Lord of the Dark?” For an instant the darkness nearly obliterated him, only the glowing fires showing through. “They are not so easily broken as the oaths to the Light you forsook, proclaiming your new master in the very Hall of the Servants. Your master claims you forever, Lanfear. Will you serve, or do you choose an eternity of pain, of endless dying without release?”

Sounds like the end of ToM. Maybe Lanfear's true loyalty is revealed?

The Unreasoner
09-30-2011, 08:55 PM
I doubt its the Forced Turning if only because its first mentioned by Sheriam a full 8 chapters before the window given.

Well, yeah. I just wondered if specificity could create a new gun. 'Forced Turning' is different from 'Egwene forced to turn'. I thought the Myrdraal were in the range, and relevant. If it was the turning.

Sei'taer
09-30-2011, 08:57 PM
Is this the something that everybody missed from the first five books, or whatever it was? I can't remember exactly where that supposedly took place.

Lupusdeusest
09-30-2011, 08:59 PM
Perrin sees Moiraine naked in those chapters? Maybe she has a unique birthmark or something... :D

derobbins
09-30-2011, 09:07 PM
something that gets dismissed pretty outright is Loial's emphatic exclaimation over sung wood, and his (albeit modest) ability with that talent.

Pronaos
09-30-2011, 09:08 PM
something that gets dismissed pretty outright is Loial's emphatic exclaimation over sung wood, and his (albeit modest) ability with that talent.

Interesting. I hadn't thought about that.

Davian93
09-30-2011, 09:15 PM
something that gets dismissed pretty outright is Loial's emphatic exclaimation over sung wood, and his (albeit modest) ability with that talent.

Is that in those chapters? If so, that's a really good bet. Good thought.

SilverMonarch
09-30-2011, 09:17 PM
I thought that about sung wood at first, too. However, in The Great Hunt Loial sung a staff in the alternate world when he's with Rand.

btgettel
09-30-2011, 09:17 PM
What about this:

"when the Stone of Tear falls we will leave the Three-fold Land at last. We will be changed, and find again what was ours, and was lost."

Chapter 34. Find the song?

Lupusdeusest
09-30-2011, 09:18 PM
He exclaim over a sung wood Ogier bed in an inn and says that noone has been able to sing a piece that large in 1000 years.

derobbins
09-30-2011, 09:20 PM
its in chapter 34, towards the beginning they talk about him being able to sing wood and loial (modestly) admits he may be the best out of the very few who are still able to do it

though i dont think it would count as checkov's gun as it IS used in the 'other world' to make a walking stick/staff later on

Lupusdeusest
09-30-2011, 09:23 PM
its in chapter 34, towards the beginning they talk about him being able to sing wood and loial (modestly) admits he may be the best out of the very few who are still able to do it

though i dont think it would count as checkov's gun as it IS used in the 'other world' to make a walking stick/staff later on

Not to mention how he used that Talent in TEotW to strengthen The Green Man's oak.

Pronaos
09-30-2011, 09:23 PM
its in chapter 34, towards the beginning they talk about him being able to sing wood and loial (modestly) admits he may be the best out of the very few who are still able to do it

though i dont think it would count as checkov's gun as it IS used in the 'other world' to make a walking stick/staff later on

I don't know about that...you put a gun on the mantle in chapter 34 of book 3, you take it to the range at some point in a later book/chapter, then you don't mention it for 8 books...still a fairly forgettable Checkov's gun. Heck, at this point I almost think of Loial as a Checkov's gun. ;)

The Unreasoner
09-30-2011, 09:25 PM
He exclaim over a sung wood Ogier bed in an inn and says that noone has been able to sing a piece that large in 1000 years.

It's in 33-35
i think.

SilverMonarch
09-30-2011, 09:29 PM
I don't know about that...you put a gun on the mantle in chapter 34 of book 3, you take it to the range at some point in a later book/chapter, then you don't mention it for 8 books...still a fairly forgettable Checkov's gun. Heck, at this point I almost think of Loial as a Checkov's gun. ;)

The issue with this is that he sings the staff in the previous book AND the oak in the first book in the series. I don't think something with so many references is what BS is referring to, especially when this reference is nowhere near the first.

Lupusdeusest
09-30-2011, 09:29 PM
It's in 33-35
i think.

After a time, Loial rapped on the door and put his head in. The Ogier’s ears practically quivered with excitement, and his grin very nearly split his broad face in two. “Perrin, you will not believe it! My bed is sung wood! Why, it must be well over a thousand years old. No Treesinger has sung a piece so large in at least that long. I myself would not care to try it, and I have the talent more strongly than most, now. Well, to be truthful, there are not many of us with the talent at all, anymore. But I am among the best of those who can sing wood.”
“That is very interesting,” Perrin said.

Oops, moved on from that chapter, but it's in there.

We get Naked Moiraine almost immediately afterward.

Terez
09-30-2011, 09:37 PM
I've asked Brandon to confirm he's not talking about 13-13. If he won't, I'll be forced to not care about this clue. Sad, really. It looks fun, but it's not if he's talking about 13-13, because there's no real hint to what's going on in AMOL that we don't already know. And the association with what he's said on it before is too strong to dismiss, so...

sandoz12
09-30-2011, 09:59 PM
I've asked Brandon to confirm he's not talking about 13-13. If he won't, I'll be forced to not care about this clue. Sad, really. It looks fun, but it's not if he's talking about 13-13, because there's no real hint to what's going on in AMOL that we don't already know. And the association with what he's said on it before is too strong to dismiss, so...

Yeah, if it is the 13-13 I will be so disappointed. No fun at all.

Lupusdeusest
09-30-2011, 09:59 PM
I'd get warm fuzzies if the woman with the children to whom Mat gives a handful of coins ends up being vital.

Lupusdeusest
09-30-2011, 10:00 PM
Yeah, if it is the 13-13 I will be so disappointed. No fun at all.

Not even a real... clue.

Pronaos
09-30-2011, 10:06 PM
This is possibly the best completely off the wall prediction I've ever read, both for amusement factor and plausibility. :p

That said, I really wish I had a copy of TDR. Gonna have to hunt one down.

Thanks! =) It's better than my Matrix prediction where it turns out Rand is The One and he has to walk through a door to save Zion.

"But rest assured: this will be the sixth time we have destroyed it, and we have become exceedingly efficient at it."

Terez
09-30-2011, 10:08 PM
Also, I did start re-reading those chapters, and not even halfway through the first, I'm already convinced it's Mat's luck. RJ's comment about the Dark One's own luck is just one of those things that we're all just sort of stupid about. Mat is convinced that it was the dagger that gave him the luck, but I think RJ was saying it was the Dark One. The dagger from Shadar Logoth actually muted the luck because of that 'polar opposite' thing that RJ harped on so much regarding the cleansing.

So how did Mat get the Dark One's luck?

Ever since I have read the Mat Pawn theory as a noob I've believed that Mat probably drank the wine in TEOTW 14. If I recall, there were a number of things in that theory I didn't buy, but it makes sense considering that Mat is the one who picked up the figurine of himself in the dream (letting Ishamael know who he was). All three boys were marked by ravens in their dreams, but we know Rand didn't drink the wine. What if Mat did? What would it have done? We know Perrin didn't drink earlier in TDR.

Most importantly, what does it mean that Mat has the Dark One's own luck? It served him well against Rahvin, and Comar, etc.

I'm only disappointed that Mat didn't ask Basel Gill to hold his wager until ch. 47. :(

sandoz12
09-30-2011, 10:19 PM
Also, I did start re-reading those chapters, and not even halfway through the first, I'm already convinced it's Mat's luck.

So how did Mat get the Dark One's luck?


I too think it's Mat's luck. However, I would much prefer it to be Perrin's dream of Rand being surrounded by Myrddraal - or has that happened in some symbolic sense that I have missed?

As to how Mat got the Dark One's luck - I would love to know this too. But I really don't have a single clue.

Pronaos
09-30-2011, 10:57 PM
I too think it's Mat's luck. However, I would much prefer it to be Perrin's dream of Rand being surrounded by Myrddraal - or has that happened in some symbolic sense that I have missed?

As to how Mat got the Dark One's luck - I would love to know this too. But I really don't have a single clue.

Well, Shai'tan is the "embodiment of paradox and chaos, destroyer of reason and logic, breaker of balance, the unmaker of order", right? Dictionary.com says luck is:

luck
noun
1. the force that seems to operate for good or ill in a person's life, as in shaping circumstances, events, or opportunities: With my luck I'll probably get pneumonia.
2. good fortune; advantage or success, considered as the result of chance: He had no luck finding work.
3. a combination of circumstances, events, etc., operating by chance to bring good or ill to a person: She's had nothing but bad luck all year.
4. some object on which good fortune is supposed to depend:This rabbit's foot is my luck.

Is luck a form of chaos? It is if you consider the type Mat has. Coins standing on end, the impossible becoming possible...almost like a body suddenly becoming full of beetles. And replace "rabbit's foot" in #4 with "ruby dagger"...perhaps that ruby dagger was such a treasure because it was the Dark One's luck.

Or maybe it was just lucky, either a ter'angreal or some other artifact. But then Padan Fain got his hands on it. Moiraine says:

"Padan Fain was the Dark One's creature to the depths of his soul, but I believe that in Shadar Logoth he fell afoul of Mordeth, who was as vile in fighting the Shadow as ever the Shadow itself was. Mordeth tried to consume Fain's soul, to have a human body again, but found a soul that had been touched directly by the Dark One, and what resulted....What resulted was neither Padan Fain nor Mordeth, But something far more evil, a blend of the two."

Padan Fain's soul was touched directly by the Dark One, a bond so strong Mordeth couldn't take him completely. A lucky dagger previously owned by Mordeth, infused with the elements of chaos from within Padan Fain, taken back by Mat and then permanently embedded in him when he was healed of the taint.

Just a thought. I don't have the books in front of me so I may be a little out of order. But it's the only plausible way I could think that Mat could truly get/become "the dark one's own luck".

derobbins
09-30-2011, 11:00 PM
You dont think the hunters that chained the aiel could pop back up do you?


see this is all hard part of the thing with a checkovian gun is that it is in plain sight and overlooked the 13-13 thing as you all call it is not within reach of all and so nonchanlantly acted about that it is over looked, there are genuine fears of that throughout the series.

here is my thoughts,
1sung wood for the weapons made by perrin?

2alludra's 'sticks' (kind of have taken a back seat to the dragons huh?)

3Faile's treasure in the mountains or those hunters of the Horn finding something in the woods south of two rivers

4The sunken ship that the three accepted get caught on, (briggands or something, yet we never see ANY ships of a brigandish nature ANYWHERE ANYTIME on the river as in manning a ship (and no han solo, i mean bayle domon doesn't count)


I may think of some more but currently i think these are the best (and wasnt sung wood weoponry found in one of the later books over a mantle? (around the place where loial and his mother meet up?)

CSGaidin
09-30-2011, 11:21 PM
On re-reading this tonight I noticed that Sheriam visits Mat in his room immediately before he goes on his lucky gambling spree. Now that we know she's Black, could she have been using the dice ter'angreal? It still doesn't answer the question of why the Dark One wants him to have this luck, but it may explain the how.

The Unreasoner
09-30-2011, 11:28 PM
I'd get warm fuzzies if the woman with the children to whom Mat gives a handful of codeine ends up being vital.
Me too,.

finn
09-30-2011, 11:31 PM
Don't suppose Mat's improved luck had anything to do with the gambler persona introduced in the old blood memories that emerged in the strain of healing him from the dagger's influence. The "Time to toss the dice" catchphrase dates from this time although we have mention of it since Chapter 19 so that's probably not it.

Chapters 30 to 40 are pretty wide in terms of scope when you consider that major/recurring characters like Aviendha, Faile, Rhuarc, Gaul, Bain & Chiad were first introduced within them.

Could it be that first mention of Tigraine's resemblance to Rand in Chapter 39 by Elayne? Dyelin has elaborated on it in a later book and Rand knows or suspects the significance, although he hasn't acted on it by acknowledging Galad a half-brother.

Terez
09-30-2011, 11:31 PM
On re-reading this tonight I noticed that Sheriam visits Mat in his room immediately before he goes on his lucky gambling spree. Now that we know she's Black, could she have been using the dice ter'angreal? It still doesn't answer the question of why the Dark One wants him to have this luck, but it may explain the how.
Nope, RJ said it wasn't the dice. I quoted this earlier, but I'll quote it again:

DragonCon 4 September 2005 - Emma reporting (http://theoryland.yuku.com/topic/9912)

Question: In The Dragon Reborn, Lanfear visits Mat as he is recuperating from his One Power surgery over the dagger. At one point she stretches out her hand towards him and he feels a tingle going over him, somebody interrupts them, and she turns her head and sobs, at about the same time a member of Black Ajah stole angreal and ter'angreal6 (https://docs.google.com/View?docID=dcjspjqg_70dtxtgjg6&revision=_latest#FOOTNOTE-6) out of the Tower cache, one of which was a ter'angreal that was known to have some effect on chance. So it was about this time that Mat's really really really weird luck and the dice rolling in his head began. Is this a connection or coincidence?

Jordan: That is a coincidence. When they say that Mat has the Dark One's own luck, he can get as mad as he wants to, but in a way it is true. It wasn't a gift from Lanfear, though.
Now, RJ might be giving an Aes Sedai answer in the sense that he's saying Lanfear was a coincidence, but not the disappearance of the luck ter'angreal...but I can't think of any other examples of him being quite that shady. Maybe someone else can.

Jason R. Peters
09-30-2011, 11:33 PM
Seriously guys? You might be right and it's this complex, but I seriously doubt it.

There is a REALLY POWERFUL ARTIFACT that has literally been tucked away since middle of book 3. It would turn the tide of any battle, so it's a proverbial gun on the mantle. It's been sitting idle for every book since.

If it's a Chekhov's Gun (and not, say, Chekhov's Skill, etc.) it has to be the Horn of Valere.

The Unreasoner
09-30-2011, 11:37 PM
Seriously guys? You might be right and it's this complex, but I seriously doubt it.

There is a REALLY POWERFUL ARTIFACT that has literally been tucked away since middle of book 3. It would turn the tide of any battle, so it's a proverbial gun on the mantle. It's been sitting idle for every book since.

If it's a Chekhov's Gun (and not, say, Chekhov's Skill, etc.) it has to be the Horn of Valere.
Not sure this gun has depleted uranium bullets my friend.

Lupusdeusest
09-30-2011, 11:38 PM
2alludra's 'sticks' (kind of have taken a back seat to the dragons huh?)



Alludra's firesticks have already come into play, though - she has perfected them. All that remains is to make safety firesticks.
Unless we get a scene in which someone thinks someone else is channeling when they use them (a rather overused scene in f/scifi) I'm a little hesitant to consider them "it".

Lupusdeusest
09-30-2011, 11:40 PM
Me too,.

Codeine? :o :confused:

arioch
09-30-2011, 11:57 PM
Seriously guys? You might be right and it's this complex, but I seriously doubt it.

There is a REALLY POWERFUL ARTIFACT that has literally been tucked away since middle of book 3. It would turn the tide of any battle, so it's a proverbial gun on the mantle. It's been sitting idle for every book since.

If it's a Chekhov's Gun (and not, say, Chekhov's Skill, etc.) it has to be the Horn of Valere.

The Horn of Valere was a thing since the end of TEOTW and was mentioned as early as Thom arriving in the Two Rivers, and was brought to the tower (and "tucked away") at the beginning of the third book. So that's probably not it.

Besides, we've been kind of wanting to know the end to that plotline for ages.

derobbins
09-30-2011, 11:58 PM
You dont think the hunters that chained the aiel could pop back up do you?


see this is all hard part of the thing with a checkovian gun is that it is in plain sight and overlooked the 13-13 thing as you all call it is not within reach of all and so nonchanlantly acted about that it is over looked, there are genuine fears of that throughout the series.

here is my thoughts,
1sung wood for the weapons made by perrin?

2alludra's 'sticks' (kind of have taken a back seat to the dragons huh?)

3Faile's treasure in the mountains or those hunters of the Horn finding something in the woods south of two rivers

4The sunken ship that the three accepted get caught on, (briggands or something, yet we never see ANY ships of a brigandish nature ANYWHERE ANYTIME on the river as in manning a ship (and no han solo, i mean bayle domon doesn't count)


I may think of some more but currently i think these are the best (and wasnt sung wood weoponry found in one of the later books over a mantle? (around the place where loial and his mother meet up?)

sadly those weapons i thought of (knife of dreams chapter 19 were over a mantle but not made of sung wood) though were in the same room as sung wood bowl and a as long as Elder Haman was tall so perhaps unsung ogier weopons? haha just conjecture. im actually pretty sure its the deathstar, the horn of valere, getting mat to it and blowing it and all that jazz. odd that a weapon shot can be a weapon turned Checkovian, (think the death star in Return of the Jedi) so obvious it must be true.

Sukoto
10-01-2011, 01:13 AM
I don't see how it could be the Horn. It isn't on screen in ch. 30-40 of TDR, and it is mentioned many times after those chapters.

SilverMonarch
10-01-2011, 01:17 AM
Any opinion on if this may be related to the quote BS recently provided on trusting Mat Cauthon? It just seems a bit coincidental that this section is the first time we see Mat's (or the Dark One's?) luck truly hit.

Terez
10-01-2011, 01:43 AM
It's possible, but difficult to make a connection that's not entirely speculative. It does seem to have something to do with Mat, though...I just finished my scour of the 11 chapters Brandon mentioned, and the only likely candidates I see are Mat's luck and Aludra's cannons...and the latter is weak because she didn't really mention them. Just that she would make her fortune with sticks (matches).

janschulz
10-01-2011, 01:45 AM
Mats luck is complementary to Rands ability to channel and Perins "going wolf" (each one got something to do his tavern job) and he used it all the time so it isn't a checkov gun.

Terez
10-01-2011, 02:06 AM
Mats luck is complementary to Rands ability to channel and Perins "going wolf" (each one got something to do his tavern job) and he used it all the time so it isn't a checkov gun.
According to RJ's comment, there's more to it than simple complementary ability. If it's somehow related to the Dark One, then we've yet to see the outcome of that.

finnssss
10-01-2011, 02:11 AM
My first thought was the introduction of the dreams everyone in Illian were having, slowly converting them to Sammy's/The DO's will or at least sapping their wills.
Would fit in well if, as some suspect, Demandred holds Murandy in his pocket and has now done the same there.

Unfortunately, that was revealed in chptr 42, a little out of the 30-40 range BS gave.


Mat's luck is an intriguing hypothesis.

Atastor
10-01-2011, 03:14 AM
...if Mat has the Dark One's luck, the DO doesn't have any luck anymore. So the gun might well be a situation, where the DO is unlucky to the extreme...

m2p
Michael

Lupusdeusest
10-01-2011, 03:27 AM
Is it more that Mat's luck will suddenly... balance out?
Most of the ta'veren thing with luck is balanced (unless the characters go as Rand did), but Mat's seems pro-Pattern to the extreme. Will the scales be balanced?

Landro
10-01-2011, 04:17 AM
Two things that come to mind:

Rand's real parents and what it means in the political landscape. His claims on Andor and Cairhien are both strong than Elayne's. And the leader of the White cloaks is his half brother.

Perrin and Gaul killing a bunch Whitecloaks. Remember how mad they got when Perrin killed only two of them?

janschulz
10-01-2011, 04:21 AM
I don't think that Mat's luck makes the luck of the dark one lesser in the final battle. That would be too much like cheating in the sense of BS's law of magic (http://www.brandonsanderson.com/article/40/Sandersons-First-Law).

Neilyb123
10-01-2011, 05:03 AM
I don't see how it could be the Horn. It isn't on screen in ch. 30-40 of TDR, and it is mentioned many times after those chapters.

Yes, it is mentioned after this, but I think the chapter were Mat wakes up in the Tower is the first that he realises that he'll have to use the horn in the Last Battle.

Tomp
10-01-2011, 05:08 AM
An idea that comes to mind is Egwenes dream of Mat dicing w the dark one, although that's a couple of chapters after the 30-40.
I just thought that it would tie in with the prologue of TPoD where Moridin plays sha'rah with himself and thinks that only nine still alive remember the game.
Mat would probably know the game as well due to his memories. That could be the game that Egwenes dream is referring to.

Zombie Sammael
10-01-2011, 05:11 AM
1. What will ZS think of this thread? I at first thought it was just the other, renamed


Honestly, I don't see that there's really any more to go on in this than in the other clue. Much like with the other one, we mostly just see guesswork, though we're able to extrapolate that down to a couple of realistic possibilities - just like with the other clue. We do have more specific references, but really that doesn't give us very much more to go on than the other clue.

What I've learned is this:

1. It's either Mat's luck or 13x13, and of those, Mat's luck seems more likely.

2. Terez enjoys baiting me every bit as much as I enjoy baiting her.

The Unreasoner
10-01-2011, 07:43 AM
Things I've learned:

1. It is proper form to only learn two things at a time on TL
2. ...

David Selig
10-01-2011, 09:43 AM
My first thought was that Rand being son of Tigraine would finally play a bigger role in the plot than the "kissing cousins" doubt Rand had in Book 6.

After reading this thread though, Mat's luck seems more likely.

Rand al'Fain
10-01-2011, 10:23 AM
My first thought was that Rand being son of Tigraine would finally play a bigger role in the plot than the "kissing cousins" doubt Rand had in Book 6.

After reading this thread though, Mat's luck seems more likely.
Well, there is still the whole part where Galad finds out his other half-brother is not only half Aiel, but also the Dragon Reborn, Car'a'carn, Coramoor, and Two Rivers' shepherd all rolled into one.

I think Galad may have an annurism from that. And when Elayne marries Rand, one or the other, she'll have to recognize Galad as her brother.:D

The Unreasoner
10-01-2011, 10:45 AM
After reading this thread though, Mat's luck seems more likely.
Lol. Perhaps that was the point of the thread.

And, what about Mat's luck is the "gun"? I would think some precision is necessary to elevate 'foreshadowing' to 'gun on the mantle'.

I don't doubt the interpretation, I just wondered what the interpretation actually was. How is this gun 'fired'?

Just a thought, in any event. If everyone is agreeing on Mat's luck, there is probably merit to the idea. I just wondered what exactly everyone was seeing, and agreeing on.

I don't have a favored interpretation. I liked the 13x13, but only because it was easily considered a gun. I really liked the Treesinging, but I don't see how it could play out. I liked Lanfear's redemption, but it seems a bit vague to be a 'gun'. And I'd like to at least entertain Mat's luck, but I need to see the evidence first.

GonzoTheGreat
10-01-2011, 10:52 AM
One gun coming up:
She had dreamed of Perrin with a wolf, and with a falcon, and a hawk – and the falcon and the hawk fighting – of Perrin running from someone deadly, and Perrin stepping willingly over the edge of a towering cliff while saying, "It must be done. I must learn to fly before I reach the bottom." There had been one dream of an Aiel, and she thought that had to do with Perrin, too, but she was not sure. And a dream of Min, springing a steel trap but somehow walking through it without so much as seeing it. There had been dreams of Mat, too. Of Mat with dice spinning 'round him – she felt she knew where that one came from – of Mat being followed by a man who was not there – she still did not understand that; there was a man following, or maybe more than one, but in some way there was no one there – of Mat riding desperately toward something unseen in the distance that he had to reach, and Mat with a woman who seemed to be tossing fireworks about. An Illuminator, she assumed, but that made no more sense than anything else.The bolded part is a pretty obvious sign that what Egwene sees as the obvious explanation is wrong.

The Unreasoner
10-01-2011, 10:59 AM
Lol. I think Egwene is talking about where the dream came from.

I also think you knew that, and were making a joke. And so, Well Played!

Zombie Sammael
10-01-2011, 11:04 AM
I think people are getting a little bit too literal in their interpretation of the "Chekov's Gun" analogy. "Chekov's Gun" implies a phenomenon. Chekov was actually referring to the fact that having a loaded gun on stage is a safety hazard (and there are many laws about the way a gun on stage is supposed to be handled, loaded or otherwise) and therefore should be avoided unless strictly necessary. It therefore refers more to the idea of not including unnecessary elements in fiction - there is in fact a whole school of dramatic theory which works on the basis of avoiding placing any unnecessary decoration on stage (or "on stage") unless it is actually used in the performance; for example, a production set in a flat might reasonably include chairs, a coffee table, a sofa, a television, a kettle, and lampshades, but if only the sofa and chairs are ever sat on by the characters in the play, they are all that should be included, and it is the job of the acting to create the rest of the scene.

What this means is that "Chekov's Gun" need not refer to an actual gun, or gun-like entity, that needs to be fired, but rather to some other element that would otherwise be unnecessary "decoration". Of course, the phrase is used metaphorically, too.

Those hearing this term for the first time should note that a Chekhov's Gun is not a literal gun — but is a metaphor for pretty much anything.

When viewed from this perspective, Mat's luck actually doesn't seem to fit the bill very well, as it's not an element that is otherwise unnecessary. Indeed, Mat's luck is a gun that keeps firing throughout the story. The 13x13 trick, on the other hand, is less so, but the problem is that TOM hints that that has already been fired as well. Nevertheless, despite my earlier comments to the contrary, it's still a better Chekov's Gun than Mat's luck, since unless it is confirmed in AMOL, it's a story element which is otherwise unnecessary, and it does seem like the element that stands out. That said, I suspect that a careful reading of the chapters specified with this borne in mind will likely reveal a better gun still....

GonzoTheGreat
10-01-2011, 11:16 AM
But the point is not just that it is Mat's luck (a loaded gun). This luck is also the DO's own luck.

To put that into context: you would have the president of the United States going to visit a play with a loaded gun on stage, and that specific gun was the actual one with which Abraham Lincoln had been shot.
In that case, having a loaded gun on stage would not be too surprising, as that's what the play calls for. But the detail of which gun it actually is would be relevant, in this story.

And, of course, this also means that I was not simply making a joke with my previous post. In my view, the fact that Egwene automatically dismisses the spinning dice (luck) as something familiar is an actual warning sign (the loaded gun) that it isn't as innocent as she thinks it is.

The Unreasoner
10-01-2011, 11:17 AM
a metaphor for pretty much anything.
When viewed from this perspective, Mat's luck actually doesn't seem to fit the bill very well
Hmmm.

Lol.

But I think people need to take it more literally, not less. And need to be more precise. 'Mat's luck' isn't enough, but 'Mat's luck running out' might be. 'Firing' is 'using the prop', giving it a purpose. An actual gun on the mantle of a set could just be for waving around. But it was 'fired', in a sense.

@GtG
On second read, it seems like an Egwene-jab. Still funny.

The Unreasoner
10-01-2011, 11:25 AM
And, of course, this also means that I was not simply making a joke with my previous post. In my view, the fact that Egwene automatically dismisses the spinning dice (luck) as something familiar is an actual warning sign (the loaded gun) that it isn't as innocent as she thinks it is.
Oh. Well I have always believed that Mat's luck (and the Dragon's luck in general) is substantially distinct from the DO's own luck. I posted somewhere about it, in detail. I don't think anything other than Myrdraal or the Nae'blis can have the Dark One's own luck.

And so, I would have to say that the mentions of Mat sharing the DO's luck in the text are, well, 'red herrings'.

Zombie Sammael
10-01-2011, 11:29 AM
Hmmm.

Lol.

But I think people need to take it more literally, not less. And need to be more precise. 'Mat's luck' isn't enough, but 'Mat's luck running out' might be. 'Firing' is 'using the prop', giving it a purpose. An actual gun on the mantle of a set could just be for waving around. But it was 'fired', in a sense.

@GtG
On second read, it seems like an Egwene-jab. Still funny.

Selective quoting is selective! :p

My point is that it's not a literal gun; as a metaphor for pretty much anything it doesn't have to be "fired". Consider if a key plot point of my story was who was the Marxist, and in an earlier scene there's a copy of Das Kapital on a table in one character's flat. In that case the book is the "gun" without ever having to be fired.

On the other hand, Mat's luck has been fired many times. But I do see the point about how that's not the case if it is literally the Dark One's own luck, although I think that raises some other interesting questions, like specifically how the DO would give away his luck and whether or not he's capable of giving away other of his personality traits. Maybe someone, in some Age, got all of his love, compassion, and warmth for humanity, hence the situation we're in now.

GonzoTheGreat
10-01-2011, 12:33 PM
I don't think it is really a matter of giving it away. It may even be the case that the DO himself doesn't know it, yet.

The way I see it, the DO's luck is sort of like the OP and the TP: an ever renewing stream. Somehow, Mat has been plugged into that during his Healing in the WT. When Mat shows up in the Pit of Doom, the DO will unplug him, and then Mat will have to fend for himself, without being luckier than the average ta'veren is.

Zombie Sammael
10-01-2011, 12:42 PM
I don't think it is really a matter of giving it away. It may even be the case that the DO himself doesn't know it, yet.

The way I see it, the DO's luck is sort of like the OP and the TP: an ever renewing stream. Somehow, Mat has been plugged into that during his Healing in the WT. When Mat shows up in the Pit of Doom, the DO will unplug him, and then Mat will have to fend for himself, without being luckier than the average ta'veren is.

Honestly? This sounds looney to me. There's literally zero evidence that the Dark One's luck is anything like the OP. He has his OP equivalent: the True Power. Why would Mat's healing in the Tower - from a dagger which while evil was unconnected with the Dark One - in any way allow him to channel the Dark One's luck? Further, it's said that he "has" the Dark One's own luck, not that he can channel it. Sorry Gonzo but this is as off the wall as I've seen 'em.

alleluia_cone
10-01-2011, 01:21 PM
Mat's luck has been frequently mentioned and discussed, both within the story and by the readers of the story, but the source of his luck, surprisingly, has tended to be somewhat overlooked -- even by Mat himself. It just became accepted at some point, not only by the readers (who seemingly equate it with Perrin's connections to the wolves), but even by the characters themselves. Certainly none of them dwell on it very long.

And in that, Mat's luck certainly has the potential to be a sort of Chekhov's gun, an element introduced early in the story, the significance of which does not become clear until much later on. An element, moreover, that is basically ignored until now. So perhaps it is the case that we were gravely mistaken in dismissing the acquisition of Mat's luck so blithely.

As far as I can tell, this short passage is the only time any thought is given to the acquisition of the luck, distinguished from the luck itself:

He knew he was lucky. He could remember always being lucky. But somehow, his memories from Emond’s Field did not show him as lucky as he had been since leaving. Certainly he had gotten away with a great deal, but he could remember also being caught in pranks he had been sure would succeed. His mother had always seemed to know what he was up to, and Nynaeve able to see through whatever defenses he put up. But it was not just since leaving the Two Rivers that he had become lucky. The luck had come once he took the dagger from Shadar Logoth. He remembered playing at dice back home with a sharp-eyed, skinny man who worked for a merchant come down from Baerlon to buy tabac. He remembered the strapping his father had given him, too, on learning Mat owed the man a silver mark and four pence.

Jordan, Robert (2009-12-09). The Dragon Reborn: Book Three of 'The Wheel of Time' (pp. 345-346). Tor Books. Kindle Edition.

Are there any other examples of Mat or another of the characters actually pondering how Mat got so lucky? Especially by those who have good reason to know that Mat was not always so lucky, which would include, to start with, everybody from the Two Rivers.

The Unreasoner
10-01-2011, 01:32 PM
If anything, I would think that if the dagger were the catalyst, Mat's luck is most certainly not connected to the Shadow. Maybe SL, but not SG.

And I'm not sure Mat was that lucky after the dagger. I certainly don't remember him being unusually lucky (for a ta'veren) until after he was healed.

His luck may just be some bizarre Talent, or an unusual manifestation of ta'vereness.

alleluia_cone
10-01-2011, 01:36 PM
If anything, I would think that if the dagger were the catalyst, Mat's luck is most certainly not connected to the Shadow. Maybe SL, but not SG.

And I'm not sure Mat was that lucky after the dagger. I certainly don't remember him being unusually lucky (for a ta'veren) until after he was healed.

His luck may just be some bizarre Talent, or an unusual manifestation of ta'vereness.

I wouldn't take Mat's thoughts on the matter as probative. His track record on deciphering things is decidedly spotty.

I simply quoted that passage because I think it's the only example of him actually reflecting on the question of how he got his luck, as opposed to the luck itself.

Actually, to further back my point, here is Mat a couple of paragraphs after thinking that the dagger from Shadar Logoth is the source of his luck:


Maybe it was something the Aes Sedai did. Something they did Healing me. By accident, maybe. That could be it. Better that the other. Those bloody Aes Sedai must have done it to me.

Jordan, Robert (2009-12-09). The Dragon Reborn: Book Three of 'The Wheel of Time' (p. 346). Tor Books. Kindle Edition.

I believe those are his last thoughts on the subject.

So, to review: First Mat thinks he acquired his luck in Shadar Logoth, next he thinks it's something the Aes Sedai did when they healed him. How he can be confused about the matter, given the timing difference, is beyond me. Perhaps it has something to do with the infamous holes in his memories. In any case, Mat isn't a very good source on the matter and nobody else seems to give any thought to it at all.

So, in truth, this is the epitome of a Chekhov's gun if it later turns out that how Mat acquired said luck is in fact very important.

padfoot89
10-01-2011, 02:42 PM
Maybe Mat's luck acts in some unpredictable way when close to Fain. He hasn't been near Fain or SL since his healing. That might also be a reason for that "how much do you trust Mat Cauthon" line. Maybe Mat ends up doing something questionable and people start having doubts.

Pronaos
10-01-2011, 03:16 PM
Maybe Mat's luck acts in some unpredictable way when close to Fain. He hasn't been near Fain or SL since his healing. That might also be a reason for that "how much do you trust Mat Cauthon" line. Maybe Mat ends up doing something questionable and people start having doubts.

It would be more extraordinary if people stopped having doubts about Mat.

To those looking for a link between the dagger, the Dark One's luck, and Mat I'd say the answer (if there is one) is still Padan Fain. Fain was given powers to find the boys; what's to say that power isn't the Dark One's luck? He certainly did fall into a veritable load of bad luck while being abused by fades, trollocs, etc, but eventually merged with Mordeth (the only person ever to do so), was able to get the dagger and horn (a tough feat), was able to survive Machin Shin (something no one had done), managed to convince Whitecloaks to attack Two Rivers, able to become a being that even fades feared...of all the powers of chaos the Dark One could give him, it sounds the most like luck.

Mat was always lucky. He got the dagger and was tainted. Fain needed the dagger because of his merging with Mordeth; did luck bestowed by the Dark One go into the dagger somehow? And when Mat gets it back and is healed, did it perfect his luck, amplify it?

Terez
10-01-2011, 07:09 PM
I still think he drank the wine.

Spasmodean
10-01-2011, 07:17 PM
Were the Darkhounds that Perrin smelled the ones that chased them out of Illian or the super pack that we know is on the loose?

Terez
10-01-2011, 07:24 PM
The ones that chased them out of Illian. We didn't even get our first hint of the new breed until we saw Slayer killing wolves in TSR. Really, not until we actually saw the new breed in Rhuidean in TFOH. So I really doubt Brandon was talking about Darkhounds.

Keelan86
10-01-2011, 07:31 PM
Mat's luck is just too obvious for me, since we all know his luck and it's origin have to be explained at a certain point. I think if BS was tweeting about that he would have said it outright & no-one would have been surprised.

I feel that it's something that although minute at the time has affected certain events for good or evil. Don't ask me what, just gut feeling.

deugenes
10-01-2011, 07:49 PM
I think it's Moridin's plan. We keep hearing about it, but we don't know what it is. I think he wants to replace the Dark One with Rand's help. He pretends to be the Dark One and he even has his own Forsaken now.

derobbins
10-01-2011, 08:17 PM
to be a chekov's Gun it has to be an item described or placed into the plot/scenery and left there,

for the gun to be 'on the mantle since middle of book 3' means that the gun was either introduced in book 3 middle OR BECAME a piece of scenery after being used in books 1-2

in other words something that is new in those chapters , or something that is used before hand but falls out of 'being locked and loaded' in the audiences mind since book 3 (middle chapters)

the Horn IS an example of a chekov's Gun and one could say it has been "on the shelf" since the middle of book three, where mat actively tries to forget about his tie to it.

we also know that Mat will blow the Horn in AMOL so that leaves us two options. BS was cryptically saying im writing about the blowing of the horn now, (which would make sense based upon recently hingting that a major part of the story would be based upon main characters wondering if they can trust mat (thereby in theory have to kill him if they didnt) seems short order that he would then be writing shortly after, of mat 'pulling the trigger' (blowing the horn).

the question is could he possibly be hinting at another chekov's gun? could be. but i think this one is simple.

ThreadsOfSpirit
10-01-2011, 08:19 PM
I think Brandon used the firing metaphor ironically. The chapter where Perrin rescues Gaul is the first time we hear that Rand will change the Aiel and help them regain what they once had but lost. Way of the Leaf, perhaps?

derobbins
10-01-2011, 08:29 PM
also, mat's luck was never left there, it was part and active in every part of every moment of his life infact he actively chooses to fire it SOOO often.


the silly sung wood i talked about is seemingly too small unless it comes down to them finding the song, but i think finding the song will be a symptom of the recovery of the pattern not the cause.

the darkhounds are used later as a plot item in conflict and therefore a large pack is kind of dismissed therewith. (the gun on the mantle is no longer a piece of the set when someone walks in and shoots someone with a gun, that gun is now an active option (will this person grab that?))

i feel the same is true of Egwene's dreams as well, either all dreams from this time period have reached fruition or are understood, otheerwise she would still bring them up in her wonderings about her dreams, shes meticulous like that.

derobbins
10-01-2011, 08:30 PM
I think Brandon used the firing metaphor ironically. The chapter where Perrin rescues Gaul is the first time we hear that Rand will change the Aiel and help them regain what they once had but lost. Way of the Leaf, perhaps?

no because that was fired in the minds of at least Avhiendha when she went through the Rhuidian

and in the minds of most when he anounced himself the Caracarn

Nelal Hurcran
10-01-2011, 11:36 PM
I still think he drank the wine.

Don't drink the Kool-Aid!!



And I'm not sure Mat was that lucky after the dagger. I certainly don't remember him being unusually lucky (for a ta'veren) until after he was healed.

His luck may just be some bizarre Talent, or an unusual manifestation of ta'vereness.

Mat was already showing signs of his luck in Fal Dara, beginning of TGH. Chapter 3, according to Encyclopeadia-Wot, (http://encyclopaedia-wot.org/books/tgh/ch3.html) though I don't have my book for the exact quote.

We haven't had any signs of it before this, but so much has happened to Mat that could've caused it. The dagger, and accompanying problems were the most dramatic, but by no means all that occurred.

Terez
10-02-2011, 12:46 AM
Again, I think the dagger likely subdued the effects of the Dark One's luck until Mat was Healed of its influence. I think someone gave the quote earlier, but here it is again:

He only meant to gamble an hour or so before finding a ship, just long enough to add a few coins to his purse, but he won. He had always won more than he lost, as far as he could remember, and there had been times with Hurin, and in Shienar, when six of eight tosses in a row won for him. Tonight, every toss won. Every toss....

..."The king again," one of the men squatting with Mat muttered. It was the fifth time in a row Mat had thrown the king.

He had won the bet of a gold mark, not even caring by this time that his Andoran mark outweighed the other man's Illianer coin, but he scooped the dice into the leather cup, rattled it hard, and spun them across the floor again. Five crowns. Light, it can't be. Nobody ever threw the king six times running. Nobody.

"The Dark One's own luck," another man growled. He was a bulky fellow, his dark hair tied at the nape of his neck with a black ribbon, with heavy shoulders, scars on his face, and a nose that had been broken more than once.

Mat was scarcely aware of moving before he had the bulky man by the collar, hauling him to his feet, slamming him back against the wall. "Don't you say that!" he snarled. "Don't you ever say that!" The man blinked down at him in astonishment; he was a full head taller than Mat.

"Just a saying," somebody behind him was muttering. "Light, it's just a saying."

Mat released his grip on the scar-faced man's coat and backed away. "I... I... I don't like anybody saying things like that about me. I'm no Darkfriend!" Burn me, not the Dark One's luck. Not that! Oh, Light, did that bloody dagger really do something to me?

"Nobody said you was," the broken-nosed man muttered. He seemed to be getting over his surprise, and trying to decide whether to be angry.

Gathering his belongings from where he had piled them behind him, Mat walked out of the tavern, leaving the coins where they lay. It was not that he was afraid of the big man. He had forgotten the man, and the coins, too. All he wanted was to be outside, in fresh air, where he could think.

In the street, he leaned against the wall of the tavern not far from the door, breathing the coolness in. The dark streets of Southharbor were all but empty, now. Music and laughter still floated from the inns and taverns, but few people made their way through the night. Holding the quarterstaff upright in front of him with both hands, he lowered his head to his fists and tried to think at the puzzle from every side.

He knew he was lucky. He could remember always being lucky. But somehow, his memories from Emond's Field did not show him as lucky as he had been since leaving. Certainly he had gotten away with a great deal, but he could remember also being caught in pranks he had been sure would succeed. His mother had always seemed to know what he was up to, and Nynaeve able to see through whatever defenses he put up. But it was not just since leaving the Two Rivers that he had become lucky. The luck had come once he took the dagger from Shadar Logoth. He remembered playing at dice back home, with a sharp-eyed, skinny man who worked for a merchant come down from Baerlon to buy tabac. He remembered the strapping his father had given him, too, on learning Mat owed the man a silver mark and four pence.

"But I'm free of the bloody dagger," he mumbled. "Those bloody Aes Sedai said I was." He wondered how much he had won tonight.If Mat has the Dark One's own luck, then how could it have come from the dagger, which is a power opposite to that of the Dark One? It has to have come from the Dark One himself, and the dreams are the best opportunity for that. He picked up the dagger literally one day after the dream in Baerlon.

sandoz12
10-02-2011, 02:39 AM
I still think he drank the wine.

+1.

The fact that he doesn't deny it is a form of proof. And that is the only conceivable way (to me at least) that he could get the Dark One's luck. The dagger doesn't make sense for all the reasons people have already alluded to.

The Unreasoner
10-02-2011, 02:56 AM
So this obviously means that Mat will go dark for a time. And since Perrin will become Dark Perrin after Faile is kidnapped again and Dark Rand is a sure thing, the Light will have to deal with a complete Dark Dragon Triad.

GonzoTheGreat
10-02-2011, 04:15 AM
So this obviously means that Mat will go dark for a time. And since Perrin will become Dark Perrin after Faile is kidnapped again and Dark Rand is a sure thing, the Light will have to deal with a complete Dark Dragon Triad.In the Fourth Age, DDT will be outlawed.

Khestra
10-02-2011, 07:30 AM
I'm not entirely convinced it's Matt's luck or use of it is the gun. As an over-all theme in those chapters, perhaps...but that theme then continues on past chapter 40 and through other books.

I'm thinking the point towards chapters 30-40 was a push in the right direction without putting too fine a point on it. I'm thinking that the gun is revealed in a specific paragraph or sentence rather than a theme across those chapters.

That being said, as someone has already pointed out, the giant chunk of sung wood has my attention for a few reasons. We've already seen how Loial can sing, so it's not used to introduce the concept to the reader...it's used to introduce the concept to Perrin.

Keeping in mind we were rushed out of this town before the gang could do a full look-around, there may still be something about the bed and/or chair themselves. I mean...what was a town like Remen doing with the largest chunk of sung wood remembered in 1,000+ years stuffed in an attic?

Combined with Loial's increased screen-time in the latter books where we've seen more revealed about the nature of the Ogier's role in this whole mess, I feel this will be resolved.

After a time, Loial rapped on the door and put his head in. The Ogier’s ears practically quivered with excitement, and his grin very nearly split his broad face in two. “Perrin, you will not believe it! My bed is sung wood! Why, it must be well over a thousand years old. No Treesinger has sung a piece so large in at least that long. I myself would not care to try it, and I have the talent more strongly than most, now. Well, to be truthful, there are not many of us with the talent at all, anymore. But I am among the best of those who can sing wood.”

“That is very interesting,” Perrin said. An Aiel in a cage. That is what Min said. Why was that girl staring at me?

“I thought it was.” Loial sounded a little put out that he did not share the Ogier’s excitement, but all Perrin wanted to do was think.

I mean let's face it - how many times do we see the Ogier get all flustered? It IS important...and gets VERY clearly dismissed.

I'm willing to bet that our pensive blacksmith is going to be the one to connect the dots between the Tinkers, Aiel, Ogier, and the Song.

"It makes no sense, and things have to make sense. If you make a tool with no sense to it, it’s wasted metal. The Pattern wouldn’t make waste." - Perrin, chapter 33

BUT let's say it IS about Matt's luck...I believe it will have something to do with him having to balance out Rand's influence in the Pattern:

There had been no need to ask Moiraine if Rand’s presence had caused it; her face, like cold iron, was answer enough. The Pattern shaped itself around Rand, and chance ran wild.

Combined with Egwene's dream (odd everyone keeps quoting the latter part of it but not the first part):

Rand threatened in a dozen ways, none of them the least bit real. In one dream he had been on a huge stones board, the black and white stones as big as boulders, and him dodging the monstrous hands that moved them and seemed to try to crush him under them. It could have meant something. It very probably did, but beyond the fact that Rand was in danger from someone, or two someones — she thought that much was clear — beyond that, she simply did not know.

And of course this likely isn't related, but during my re-read I caught it and thought it was a really nice "show don't tell" on RJ's part concerning Nyn's priorities:

He stooped to pick up the man’s ring. On it, a crane flew above a lance and crown; Egwene knew it now. She had seen it often before, dangling about Nynaeve’s neck on a leather cord. Nynaeve stepped on the other rings (ALL THREE OF THEIR GREAT SERPENT RINGS!!) to snatch it out of his hand; her face was flushed, with anger and too many other emotions for Egwene to read. Rhuarc made no move to take it back, but went on in the same weary tone.

Zombie Sammael
10-02-2011, 08:10 AM
According to RJ's comment, there's more to it than simple complementary ability. If it's somehow related to the Dark One, then we've yet to see the outcome of that.

Do you mean the comment about him having the DO's luck? I'll repost it.

When they say that Mat has the Dark One's own luck, he can get as mad as he wants to, but in a way it is true. It wasn't a gift from Lanfear, though.

There's something off about this. He's clearly hinting at something, but the idea that Mat actually literally possesses the DO's luck in some way doesn't feel right. It seems more to indicate (if we're on the right track at all) that the DO has done something to Mat or altered him in some way to make him as lucky as he is. But then that's contradicted by the second part of the quote; that it wasn't a gift from Lanfear. That seems overly specific, but within the context of the quote, I can't help but think that if it was a gift from anyone we'd know about it.

I know that some will say this conflicts with the "Chekov's Gun" aspect of the hint, but if it's to do with the source of his luck, and that coming from the Shadow, there has not been nearly enough foreshadowing throughout the series for that to (in my mind) be a satisfying revelation in AMOL; it would seem to be too left-field.

Putting two and two together, however, I think I have some idea of what both this and the other hint might be referring to, and it is to do with Mat's luck; or more specifically, his luck running out. Mat relies on his luck repeatedly throughout the series - I could go rummage for a quote, but pick up pretty much any Wheel of Time book* and turn to a Mat chapter and you'll find one - even to the point of trusting to luck when skill or judgement might be a better choice for a different man. Additionally, earlier in the series much is made of "The Dark One's eyes" as the worst possible toss in a game of dice (or the best in others, but known by another name). Now, this is where I get a bit Felix-y, but bear with me: Mat also has a "spider-sense" like ability that manifests itself as rolling dice in his head, and so far, metaphorically speaking, every toss of those dice has come up Cauthon, apart from arguably the time a wall fell on him.

Putting all of these elements together, what if, at a particular key moment when Mat is trusting to his luck - which he first started to do during the specified chapters of TDR - the dice come up "Dark One's eyes"? That would fit the notion of him having the Dark One's luck "in a way"; luck that at a key point abandons him, or seems to abandon him, just as the DO uses and abandons his followers. Further, Mat and others have relied specifically on his luck, rather than his skill or judgement, on many occasions. That might well lead to people who have previously relied upon that trait of Master Cauthon asking themselves "How much do you trust Mat Cauthon?"

*Apart from TPOD, obviously.

The Unreasoner
10-02-2011, 08:30 AM
Maybe the Black Ajah activated a certain ter'angreal and shoved it down his throat.

Terez
10-02-2011, 01:07 PM
There's something off about this. He's clearly hinting at something, but the idea that Mat actually literally possesses the DO's luck in some way doesn't feel right. It seems more to indicate (if we're on the right track at all) that the DO has done something to Mat or altered him in some way to make him as lucky as he is. But then that's contradicted by the second part of the quote; that it wasn't a gift from Lanfear.
You say that as if Lanfear=the Dark One. :confused:

I know that some will say this conflicts with the "Chekov's Gun" aspect of the hint, but if it's to do with the source of his luck, and that coming from the Shadow, there has not been nearly enough foreshadowing throughout the series for that to (in my mind) be a satisfying revelation in AMOL; it would seem to be too left-field.
If he drank the wine, then there is plenty of foreshadowing.

Zombie Sammael
10-02-2011, 01:21 PM
You say that as if Lanfear=the Dark One. :confused:

What I mean is that, within the context of the interview, were it a gift from Lanfear or anyone else I think RJ would have said something other than what he said. I think the manner in which he ruled out Lanfear pretty much rules out it being a "gift" from anybody.

If he drank the wine, then there is plenty of foreshadowing.

Drinking the wine could also be evidence for the idea that the gun is his luck deserting him, especially given the "rolls Dark One's eyes" symbolism. There's also this quote:

Q: Also, what was going on in Aelfland when Mat went round and round and round the same location? Were they traveling in time?
RJ: Not traveling in time. the physical laws of nature differ. Mentioning the Dark One here is bad luck. In Aelfland, it is really bad. You can not go to Aelfland in Tel'aran'rhiod (similar to stedding). (emphasis mine)

This at least indicates the DO might have some power over bad luck. Drinking the wine links Mat to the DO/Ishamael, perhaps in a similar manner to naming the DO, thus giving the DO the ability to turn Mat's luck sour on him.

I also disagree with the notion that one instance of possible wine drinking in any way constitutes "plenty of foreshadowing", btw, but that is a quibble.

In fact, whether you are right and the DO is the source of Mat's luck or I am right and it's Mat's luck running out that is the gun, thinking about it, the results are likely to be largely the same, which is interesting. Your theory puts rather more weight on Mat being tied to the Shadow though, which he just doesn't seem to be in quite the way that Rand is.

scooter57
10-02-2011, 02:03 PM
Ya'll ever play a game called 'How Come'?
Someone tells a story with some unusual circumstances. Then the question is asked, 'How come?' The listeners try respond with Yes/No questions that demonstrate they know the answer, but aren't revealing enough to completely give it away to everyone else. The storyteller can then respond with Yes, No, or Immaterial. The questions continue until it becomes obvious to all 'How come'.

Example: man stops his car in front of a hotel. He says, I'm broke! How come? Possible question: was the hotel red?

If anyone is game, here's my question:
Can we hear 'clanging' in the background?

alleluia_cone
10-02-2011, 02:16 PM
I think the manner in which he ruled out Lanfear pretty much rules out it being a "gift" from anybody.


Or, alternatively, a really clever answer if it was Ishamael who gifted him with said luck (via the wine).

Also, while we're on the subject, there is something to be said for the fact that we never got a POV of Mat before TDR and even subsequent to that, we never got him reflecting on the dreams that he, Perrin, and Rand all shared during the early stages of the series.

Which is to say, there may be a very good reason for that. And if nothing else, as we've learned with respect to the special function of his ashandarei, Mat has always been the best character to hide nice little mysteries in plain sight. He possesses so little self-awareness or an ability to truly reflect on matters that anything that happens to him which we do not see onscreen should be viewed with much skepticism.

That is why I rather disbelieve his thoughts on the acquisition of his luck. After all, he first thinks his luck derives from the dagger but then one stream of thought later he attributes it to the healing the Aes Sedai gave him, despite the fact that these two events are separated by months and months of time.

Which brings me to my final point. What if it's not only his luck which is the Chekhov's gun but all those holes in his memory?

I mean, think about it for a second: Mat goes the first two books without a POV, despite being one of the three principle characters, and then when he finally gets one, it turns out that he has all these problems with his memory and can't remember very clearly what happened to him during the course of those first two books.

Yeah, that's not suspicious at all -- not to mention, very convenient if you wanted to hide a long simmering mystery element to the story which you are hoping to spring on readers much later in the series.

thomwoosley
10-02-2011, 02:25 PM
I read through every page, and was shocked that no one came up with the answer I did... so here's my analysis.

I read through the Encylopedia WOT for these hyper-shorted summaries.

30: Mat POV; Mat is very lucky.
31: Mat POV; Mat & Thom talk, Thom hints he killed King Galldrian.
32: Mat POV; Mat & Thom get on a boat.
Rand POV; Rand has strange (prophetic?) dreams. One is of Min killing him.
33: Perrin POV; Perrin sees Gaul in a cage, and Faile staring at him.
34: Perrin POV; Perrin frees Gaul. Gaul relates Aiel prophecy "when the Stone
of Tear falls we will leave the Three-fold Land at last. We will
be changed, and find again what was ours, and was lost."
35: Perrin POV; They leave on a boat, Faile follows.
36: Perrin POV; Perrin watches some Forsaken in the Wolf Dream. Perrin sees
Rand, and shouts a warning to him.
Rand POV; Rand wakes from a dream of Perrin, and then kills Darkfriends
with a Gray Man.
37: Egwene POV; Many prophetic dreams.
38: Egwene POV; They meet the Aiel, and Nynaeve heals Dailin.
39: Egwene POV; They talk about many things, including Rand's parentage.
They are attacked. The Aiel help rescue them, and Nynaeve uses
balefire on the Fades.
40: Mat POV; Mat & Thom meet Aludra.


Ok, so...

Brandon made a Checkov's Gun reference. What's very important about this is that Checkov's Gun refers to a gun over a mantle. That is, an obvious prop. So, I make the assumption that whatever event Brandon is refering to is something that was obvious. Something that we knew would happen eventually.

Possibilities:

* Mat's Luck. Unlikely, this has been used a great deal.
* Galldrian's Murder. Unlikely, it wasn't really obvious at this time.
* Rand's Dream about Min. Possible.
* Gaul's Prophecy. Unlikely, this has probably been fulfilled. I believe that
they found what was lost, and it was the Aiel themselves.
* Egwene's Dreams. Unlikely, most have either been fulfilled or were too vague
to be considered obvious.
* Nynaeve's Balefire. Possible.
* Aludra's Fireworks. Unlikely, she doesn't even hint at the cannons they make later.


So, I believe there are two likely possibilities. Min stabbing Rand in the back, and Nynaeve using balefire a second time. IMHO, the latter is my best guess. I'm fairly certain she's never used it again.


Does anyone know of a time when Min stabbed Rand in back? Figuratively, of course. Nothing occurred to me, but that would certainly nail down the possibilities I came up with.

Terez
10-02-2011, 02:35 PM
* Mat's Luck. Unlikely, this has been used a great deal.
Yes, but the aspect of it being the Dark One's own luck has not been.

Galldrian's Murder. Unlikely, it wasn't really obvious at this time.
It was obvious as soon as Thom set out to leave the inn where Dena was killed.

Rand's Dream about Min. Possible.
Brandon insists that Rand's dreams aren't prophetic.

Nynaeve's Balefire. Possible.
Doesn't fit Chekhov's Gun. It's supposed to be something that seems insignificant and is only fully understood later; Nynaeve using balefire again wouldn't be any more significant than her using it the first time.

alleluia_cone
10-02-2011, 02:50 PM
Doesn't fit Chekhov's Gun. It's supposed to be something that seems insignificant and is only fully understood later; Nynaeve using balefire again wouldn't be any more significant than her using it the first time.

Aside from that, she uses balefire in ToM, which would seem to eliminate that as a possibility to even start with.

thomwoosley
10-02-2011, 03:53 PM
Doesn't fit Chekhov's Gun. It's supposed to be something that seems insignificant and is only fully understood later; Nynaeve using balefire again wouldn't be any more significant than her using it the first time.

Sorry, that's not correct. Chekhov's Gun is not something insignificant. It is something obvious. It is a gun over the mantle! The audience couldn't possible miss it, and isn't supposed to. They are supposed to be wondering when it will be used.

Moreover, he was saying that if you have such a gun, at some point during the play, it MUST be fired.

thomwoosley
10-02-2011, 03:59 PM
Aside from that, she uses balefire in ToM, which would seem to eliminate that as a possibility to even start with.

That was during the test to be raised to the shawl. I'd forgotten about that, but in truth, I don't feel that completely invalidates the idea. To me, that serves as a reminder that yes, she does actually remember how to use it, and just hasn't chosen to use it against anyone real... yet.

Zombie Sammael
10-02-2011, 04:03 PM
I don't think it's a requirement of a Chekov's Gun that it needs to be mentioned once and then not brought up again; it merely needs to be seen as unimportant. Someone can say "that's a nice gun" in every scene of the play so long as it doesn't form a major part of the action until someone gets shot.

SamJ
10-02-2011, 04:06 PM
I had a quick look round the web to see whether there are real parallels with 'the Dark one's luck' that might help.

Searching for the 'devil's luck' got two definitions, either:

1. when someone has a run of very good luck, the theory being people in these circumstances were said to have made a pact with the devil; or

2. when what seems like good luck turns back on you (pretty much like a worse version of the Alannis Morisette song Ironic)

So, most of the theories on Mat's luck could be substantiated, if RJ was referencing realworld thinking. RJ's comment about Mat having the devil's luck could just be a reference to his string of good luck (in a sense) and so not be portentious, or it could indicate a pact with the devil (Terez's wine drinking theory), or it could mean his luck will turn against him, though I think the last is more of a stretch.

The fact that the other player mention's the Dark Ones luck when the game goes too well, and that Mat strenuously denies being a DF, suggest to me that there might be a similar supersition in RL, e.g. that good luck denotes a deal with the devil.

Tomp
10-02-2011, 04:07 PM
Sorry, that's not correct. Chekhov's Gun is not something insignificant. It is something obvious. It is a gun over the mantle! The audience couldn't possible miss it, and isn't supposed to. They are supposed to be wondering when it will be used.

Moreover, he was saying that if you have such a gun, at some point during the play, it MUST be fired.

I would say that Terez is correct in the definition of the gun. It should be something that didn't seem so significant at the time of the event, but "the gun" just lies there waiting for someone to pick it up.

Zombie Sammael
10-02-2011, 04:38 PM
So, most of the theories on Mat's luck could be substantiated, if RJ was referencing realworld thinking. RJ's comment about Mat having the devil's luck could just be a reference to his string of good luck (in a sense) and so not be portentious, or it could indicate a pact with the devil (Terez's wine drinking theory), or it could mean his luck will turn against him, though I think the last is more of a stretch.

The fact that the other player mention's the Dark Ones luck when the game goes too well, and that Mat strenuously denies being a DF, suggest to me that there might be a similar supersition in RL, e.g. that good luck denotes a deal with the devil.

I'd love to know why, given the evidence or lack thereof for both theories, you think my "luck runs out" is more of a stretch than Terez's "wine drinking". I'm being serious. It's not an attack on the wine drinking idea, but it does seem (to me, at least) to be the one of the two which has the least amount of evidence, both literally and metaphorically.

scooter57
10-02-2011, 04:44 PM
So nobody wants to play? Still stuck on Mat's luck or the 13x13?

Wellll..... go re-read the wikipedia article on Chekhov's gun. Earlier posters are right....it can be mentioned throughout the action, and its significance is just not obvious until late in the game.

THIS particular mention from chapter 34 seems -very- innocent, but it keeps getting mentioned again and again throughout the series, almost as a side note.

And I have been waiting for sooo long for RJ (now BS) to bring it up. How nice of Brandon to share it early :) ;)

Terez
10-02-2011, 05:04 PM
So nobody wants to play?
It's not any fun if Brandon's not playing.

Zombie Sammael
10-02-2011, 05:12 PM
So nobody wants to play? Still stuck on Mat's luck or the 13x13?

Wellll..... go re-read the wikipedia article on Chekhov's gun. Earlier posters are right....it can be mentioned throughout the action, and its significance is just not obvious until late in the game.

THIS particular mention from chapter 34 seems -very- innocent, but it keeps getting mentioned again and again throughout the series, almost as a side note.

And I have been waiting for sooo long for RJ (now BS) to bring it up. How nice of Brandon to share it early :) ;)

Perrin's choice between axe and hammer first appeared way earlier than Chapter 34 of TDR, was mentioned repeatedly throughout the series, and was resolved completely in TGS and TOM with the creation of mahallaneir. I assume that's what you're hinting at. Otherwise, and at the risk of appearing completely stupid*, I don't have a clue what you're on about.

It's almost certainly the luck, one way or another.

But from all of this, I have learned two things....

*it appears making people feel stupid is what you're going for, so well done! I hope you make a lot of friends with that...

Davian93
10-02-2011, 05:24 PM
Sorry, that's not correct. Chekhov's Gun is not something insignificant. It is something obvious. It is a gun over the mantle! The audience couldn't possible miss it, and isn't supposed to. They are supposed to be wondering when it will be used.

Moreover, he was saying that if you have such a gun, at some point during the play, it MUST be fired.

No, it IS insignificant. Its supposed to just be a normal item that you dont really think about UNTIL its used in a later scene. For example, the gun over the mantle is considered just part of the background UNTIL its used in the 3rd Act.

It's not any fun if Brandon's not playing

Agreed.

Pronaos
10-02-2011, 05:26 PM
I still think sung wood could be a possibility. The fact that Loial can sing wood isn't necessarily the gun, but the fact that he's the best could be and making a staff from it is not a firing, more of a "oh, is that gun still on the mantle?". But I still hold out hope that between Perrin's recent enlightenment and the crafting of the ultimate blacksmith hammer and Loial's ability to sing wood, we will find a tool that can break a cuendillar seal.

Terez
10-02-2011, 05:45 PM
We've known that Loial was a Treesinger since The Eye of the World (title scene). Also, Portal World in TGH. So that's not it.

The Unreasoner
10-02-2011, 05:47 PM
I'm not sure whatever it is will be that big of a deal. So even if it's this vague 'Mat's Luck', I don't imagine anything really game-changing coming of it (like Dark Mat).

I mean, remember how unimportant the BUT was? So the spear was key to getting out of the Tower. Which wouldn't have been an issue if Mat was more precise in his demands. The spear solved a problem that was created a la minute (sort of like this beurre monte sauce I'm making. Boom!). Maybe Loial sings a boat for four out of wood. Because all the trees burned down, or something. Or maybe Mat really does have the DO's own luck. Which only happens to matter when he's up against Demandred, who adds jealousy to his list of motives for wanting Mat dead. I don't think the issue created/resolved will be greater than the gun. So no 'Dark Mat', no 'Morridin's Plan' (where the hell did that come from?), and no 'Loial sings an entire new world into existence'.

Though I still think if Mat has luck influenced by the Shadow, it is
1. Not the same as the DO's own luck
2. influenced by the dice ter'angreal (after all, the BA had a use for every other ter'angreal; and it could satisfy the 'in a way' and 'not a gift from Lanfear' criteria)

alleluia_cone
10-02-2011, 05:56 PM
I would say that Terez is correct in the definition of the gun. It should be something that didn't seem so significant at the time of the event, but "the gun" just lies there waiting for someone to pick it up.

Sorry, that's not correct. Chekhov's Gun is not something insignificant. It is something obvious. It is a gun over the mantle! The audience couldn't possible miss it, and isn't supposed to. They are supposed to be wondering when it will be used.

Moreover, he was saying that if you have such a gun, at some point during the play, it MUST be fired.

Everybody keep in mind that Brandon actually linked to the Wikipedia page for Chekhov's gun when he gave us that hint.

So it would be foolish to use any other definition.

Hence:

Chekhov's gun is a literary technique whereby an element is introduced early in the story, but its significance does not become clear until later in the narrative.

Lupusdeusest
10-02-2011, 07:14 PM
Rand POV; Rand wakes from a dream of Perrin, and then kills Darkfriends with a Gray Man.
You have no idea how many times I had to read about this man eating shark.

Going along the "Mat losing his luck" strand, how would post-TG Seanchan cope with an ultra-lucky Prince of the Ravens? (Would that be the title retained? I can't recall.)

scooter57
10-02-2011, 07:52 PM
Sorry, Zombie, didnt mean to make people feel stupid; just having fun.;) Terez, I agree, it isnt any fun to play without Brandon's input.

In chapter 34 of TDR, Perrin frees Gaul from a cage and mentions that he is a blacksmith.

RJ/BS have never 'pulled the trigger' on the Perrin/Blacksmith/Aiel-special-privileges thread. They have mentioned it in the books enough, and it looks like there was discussion here in 2003/04 for Perrin potentially using this angle to free Faile but (obviously) this didn't pan out.

Maybe the reference is too obscure, but it seems to fit the Chekhov's gun concept, and Brandon will have to use it in this book, or let it stay 'on the mantel'.

The Unreasoner
10-02-2011, 08:00 PM
Sorry, Zombie, didnt mean to make people feel stupid; just having fun.;) Terez, I agree, it isnt any fun to play without Brandon's input.

In chapter 34 of TDR, Perrin frees Gaul from a cage and mentions that he is a blacksmith.

RJ/BS have never 'pulled the trigger' on the Perrin/Blacksmith/Aiel-special-privileges thread. They have mentioned it in the books enough, and it looks like there was discussion here in 2003/04 for Perrin potentially using this angle to free Faile but (obviously) this didn't pan out.

Maybe the reference is too obscure, but it seems to fit the Chekhov's gun concept, and Brandon will have to use it in this book, or let it stay 'on the mantel'.
I'm not sure how exactly ZS thought you wanted us to feel stupid. If anything, I thought your idea of the game itself was stupid. I've played it (or rather a modified version of it), and it is fun, but completely useless here. There is no chance in hell BS would answer enough Y/N questions to make playing it here worthwhile. If you want to play in Non-WoT, I'll join you though. As long as you cut out the "y'alls" (didn't do you any favors on the intelligence front).

I like the the idea that it's Perrin as a blacksmith among Aiel. Specific and not addressed, so it's valid. Something I'm curious about, so it's wanted. And not particularly earth-shaking, so I could buy that BS would choose to tweet it.

Terez
10-02-2011, 08:53 PM
In chapter 34 of TDR, Perrin frees Gaul from a cage and mentions that he is a blacksmith.

RJ/BS have never 'pulled the trigger' on the Perrin/Blacksmith/Aiel-special-privileges thread. They have mentioned it in the books enough, and it looks like there was discussion here in 2003/04 for Perrin potentially using this angle to free Faile but (obviously) this didn't pan out.
The boss even asked Brandon about this:

The Gathering Storm Book Tour, Sam Weller's Bookstore, Salt Lake City 2 November 2009 - Matt Hatch reporting (http://www.theoryland.com/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2566)

Question: Why do the Aiel revere and protect blacksmiths?
Answer: It has a lot to do with the fact that without the blacksmiths there can be no warriors. The blacksmiths are the ones who make the spears and who keep them going. But, in a way the blacksmiths are among those who sacrifice being able to go and fight themselves so that others can and that’s kind of a holy calling to the Aiel. There is also a lot of spirituality to it related to where they live, being in the desolate wasteland and the whole concept of being forged. […] There is a spiritual aspect to a blacksmith forging something because of the place that they live. Those are the two of the main reasons. It’s cultural which means there is going to be more than one reason that it is deeply ingrained, but those are two big ones that roll of the top that are in the notes.One of the most important things about Perrin's thread is his conflict over the Way of the Leaf. I do think that will be important for Perrin, and probably for the Aiel too (once Aviendha gets things rolling - according to the future she saw, Perrin wouldn't be enough on his own). That makes sense, of course. It's just hard to nail down that whole concept to Perrin meeting Gaul, though. I'd say that gun has been on the mantle since TEOTW, or TSR, depending on how you look at it.

CaptainObv
10-02-2011, 11:52 PM
I have not re-read the chapters in question/ However, from what I have read in this thread I would say the item that fits the criterion for the "gun" best is the ter'angreal that effects luck. While several were stolen, only one was absolutely identified. If we've seen its use, it hasn't been made clear to us, so we must assume it hasn't been used.

I predict it will be used in some attack on Matt to prevent his "luck" from saving the day thus forcing him to rely on his skill alone.

arioch
10-03-2011, 12:02 AM
I like the luck ter'angreal being used against Mat idea. The last we saw of it, the Black Ajah escapees had carted it off. We've accounted for most of the escapees at this point, but never this particular ter'angreal. The remainder of that Darkfriend force, including Daved Hanlon and Lady Shiaine, and whichever of those BA have survived, should have that ter'angreal in Caemlyn still.

As far as The Dark One's Own Luck goes, I think I remember who else has The Dark One's Own Luck--it's actually Padan Fain. He's been the target of a Forsaken kill-on-sight order since forever. He, as "The Renegade", is one of Slayer's standing targets. Yet I distinctly remember Slayer or one of the Forsaken tea parties saying that "The Renegade" has The Dark One's Own Luck. Someone may do a word search for "renegade" to see if that can be confirmed.

Terez
10-03-2011, 01:11 AM
I have not re-read the chapters in question/ However, from what I have read in this thread I would say the item that fits the criterion for the "gun" best is the ter'angreal that effects luck.
It was introduced in chapter 25 (too early), and since RJ seems to have effectively denied that it has anything to do with Mat's luck, then it's probably not the gun. I do like the idea that it will be used against him; maybe it's already being used in some way. As for Mat's luck going bad, you might say that started with Verin's screw-up. And since it's looking like Demandred vs Mat in AMOL at Caemlyn, I wouldn't be surprised to see it used there.

As far as The Dark One's Own Luck goes, I think I remember who else has The Dark One's Own Luck--it's actually Padan Fain.
Indeed. I've noticed that before. I still think that they received that boon in separate ways, despite the shared relationship with the dagger, but it's still a nifty set-up on RJ's part precisely because of that confusion.

Zombie Sammael
10-03-2011, 04:40 AM
Though I still think if Mat has luck influenced by the Shadow, it is
1. Not the same as the DO's own luck
2. influenced by the dice ter'angreal (after all, the BA had a use for every other ter'angreal; and it could satisfy the 'in a way' and 'not a gift from Lanfear' criteria)

There are some good reasons to think that Mat's luck isn't influenced by the ter'angreal. If I can be rude and link to the WOTFAQ (http://wotfaq.dragonmount.com/node/74) that explains why I think it's not (although their best argument is IMO "Mat's symbol is different"). Mat's thoughts about always being lucky are interesting, as well. It does seem he received a luck boost after being rid of the dagger, which lends weight to some of Terez's ideas.

Everybody keep in mind that Brandon actually linked to the Wikipedia page for Chekhov's gun when he gave us that hint.

So it would be foolish to use any other definition.

Hence:

The significance of the object is unclear. That doesn't mean it can't be brought up repeatedly. Someone could say "that's a nice gun" in every single scene so long as its significance wasn't clear until it was taken off the wall and fired at someone.

Sorry, Zombie, didnt mean to make people feel stupid; just having fun.;) Terez, I agree, it isnt any fun to play without Brandon's input.

In chapter 34 of TDR, Perrin frees Gaul from a cage and mentions that he is a blacksmith.

RJ/BS have never 'pulled the trigger' on the Perrin/Blacksmith/Aiel-special-privileges thread. They have mentioned it in the books enough, and it looks like there was discussion here in 2003/04 for Perrin potentially using this angle to free Faile but (obviously) this didn't pan out.

Maybe the reference is too obscure, but it seems to fit the Chekhov's gun concept, and Brandon will have to use it in this book, or let it stay 'on the mantel'.

1. Don't worry about it. Welcome to TL!

2. I do like that idea, though obviously it's somewhat subject to the requirements Terez posted. I still favour "luck runs out" or some variant of it, though!

I'm not sure how exactly ZS thought you wanted us to feel stupid. If anything, I thought your idea of the game itself was stupid. I've played it (or rather a modified version of it), and it is fun, but completely useless here. There is no chance in hell BS would answer enough Y/N questions to make playing it here worthwhile. If you want to play in Non-WoT, I'll join you though. As long as you cut out the "y'alls" (didn't do you any favors on the intelligence front).

I felt Scooter was being unnecessarily cryptic, which is perhaps borne out by the fact that I misunderstood what he was hinting at (though only slightly!). I don't have any problems with your "y'alls", though, Scooter, so feel free to keep using them, if only to annoy The Unreasoner. ;)

GonzoTheGreat
10-03-2011, 04:46 AM
As far as The Dark One's Own Luck goes, I think I remember who else has The Dark One's Own Luck--it's actually Padan Fain. He's been the target of a Forsaken kill-on-sight order since forever. He, as "The Renegade", is one of Slayer's standing targets. Yet I distinctly remember Slayer or one of the Forsaken tea parties saying that "The Renegade" has The Dark One's Own Luck. Someone may do a word search for "renegade" to see if that can be confirmed.I can do better that that: I can dismiss this idea:
"It was only a few hundred to begin, Goldeneyes. Just enough to keep those fool Whitecloaks off balance and see that the renegade died." Slayer's voice became angry. "The Shadow consume me if that man does not have more luck than the White Tower." Abruptly he chuckled. "But you, Goldeneyes. Your presence was a surprise. There are those who want your head on a pike. Your precious Two Rivers will be harrowed from end to end, now, to root you out. What do you say to that, Goldeneyes?"

maacaroni
10-03-2011, 05:02 AM
Fain is the buffer. I've been saying it for years...he is what will close the bore.

But I digress, this refers to Matt's luck. You've gotta ask is this just his ta'verentasticness or is the Dark One actually involved?

On a side note, this Chekhov's gun business...surely he had a laser in Star Trek?

Zombie Sammael
10-03-2011, 05:14 AM
On a side note, this Chekhov's gun business...surely he had a laser in Star Trek?

As far as I can recall, he just had a bad accent.

maacaroni
10-03-2011, 05:50 AM
You mean he wasn't from Scotland then?

Zombie Sammael
10-03-2011, 06:25 AM
You mean he wasn't from Scotland then?

In a hypothetical "Star Trek The Next Next Generation" would the engineer be called Yorkie?

Sei'taer
10-03-2011, 07:44 AM
In a hypothetical "Star Trek The Next Next Generation" would the engineer be called Yorkie?

I think that's a dog.

Zombie Sammael
10-03-2011, 07:53 AM
I think that's a dog.

So is a Scottie.

arioch
10-03-2011, 10:43 AM
Welshie?

Zombie Sammael
10-03-2011, 10:46 AM
Welshie?

There are certainly a number of breeds of dog associated with Wales.

Tomp
10-03-2011, 11:38 AM
Please, I think we're moving away from the topic.

Sei'taer
10-03-2011, 11:39 AM
I don't have any problems with your "y'alls", though, Scooter, so feel free to keep using them, if only to annoy The Unreasoner. ;)


That's because you remember the inscription on the Horn of Valere.

It says "Y'all can BLOW ME."

Zombie Sammael
10-03-2011, 11:48 AM
That's because you remember the inscription on the Horn of Valere.

It says "Y'all can BLOW ME."

Yep!

Seriously, being from (apparently) a part of England most Southerner's consider North, and being as that country has some pretty horrible economic/geographic divide issues (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North-South_divide_(England)), and being from (charitably) a lower middle class background, I'm no stranger to accent-based snobbery, so as much as The Unreasoner is a mate, I did find his criticism of Scooter a little... hard to swallow, I'm afraid. Hopefully I've explained that well enough.

Crispin's Crispian
10-03-2011, 01:55 PM
Please, I think we're moving away from the topic.

And please...it's a phaser, not a laser. :rolleyes:

Zombie Sammael
10-03-2011, 01:57 PM
Please, I think we're moving away from the topic.

Welcome to Theoryland!

Sarevok
10-03-2011, 02:02 PM
And please...it's a phaser, not a laser. :rolleyes:

Heh, I was at work when I read his post, so I was too busy to reply, but it did make me cringe.

Sei'taer
10-03-2011, 02:05 PM
And please...it's a phaser, not a laser. :rolleyes:

Nice job. You can catch that, but you can't figure out Brandons clue. Obviously Str Trek nerdom means much more to you than WoT nerdom.

After rereading the chapters mentioned, I'm inclined to go with Mat's luck on this one.

Is it possible that his luck is tied to the dark one, but the dice spinning in his head comes from the dice angreal? Or maybe it's the other way around. Not really sure what I believe either way, but they've always seemed to me to be two seperate things...

Zombie Sammael
10-03-2011, 02:14 PM
Is it possible that his luck is tied to the dark one, but the dice spinning in his head comes from the dice angreal? Or maybe it's the other way around. Not really sure what I believe either way, but they've always seemed to me to be two seperate things...

I have always thought the two were linked, like two manifestations of his ta'veren-ness.

Sei'taer
10-03-2011, 02:19 PM
I have always thought the two were linked, like two manifestations of his ta'veren-ness.

Not to me, the dice in his head seem to alert him of something bad (in his eyes) that is going to happen and he just has to wait for it to happen to figure out what it is, and by then it's too late to change it.

The lucky seems to just run all the time and usually to the good side of things.

Terez
10-03-2011, 02:21 PM
THEY BOTH STARTED AROUND THE SAME TIME. THAT'S PROBABLY PART OF WHY THEY SEEM TO BE CONNECTED. THE DICE IN HIS HEAD SEEM TO BE CONNECTED TO HIS FATE, THOUGH, WHILE HIS LUCK MOSTLY AFFECTS HIS GAMBLING, UP TO AND INCLUDING BATTLE.

Sei'taer
10-03-2011, 02:23 PM
THEY BOTH STARTED AROUND THE SAME TIME. THAT'S PROBABLY PART OF WHY THEY SEEM TO BE CONNECTED. THE DICE IN HIS HEAD SEEM TO BE CONNECTED TO HIS FATE, THOUGH, WHILE HIS LUCK MOSTLY AFFECTS HIS GAMBLING, UP TO AND INCLUDING BATTLE.

That's what I said...two seperate things.

Terez
10-03-2011, 02:28 PM
I DIDN'T READ YOUR POST BECAUSE I WAS TALKING TO SOMEONE ABOUT THIS CAPS LOCK PROBLEM.

Zombie Sammael
10-03-2011, 02:30 PM
At the risk of repeating myself, this is kinda why I came up with the "luck runs out" or "Dark One's eyes" idea. Even though they seem to act as an early warning sense to Mat, they do tend to come up in his favour in the long run: they stopped when the wall fell on him, which delayed him in Ebou Dar long enough to get the AS out and meet Tuon; they stopped when he met Tuon, who he married, and who married him; etc. I could imagine the dice falling outside of his favour as a major event that would constitute a Chekov's Gun. The only problem is that we know he makes it.

Sei'taer
10-03-2011, 02:31 PM
I DIDN'T READ YOUR POST BECAUSE I WAS TALKING TO SOMEONE ABOUT THIS CAPS LOCK PROBLEM.

Lol, I thought you were being bitchy because it had been mentioned earlier, but I wasn't going to read all the way back through and try to find it again. Carry on yelling, we're all good now.

Zombie Sammael
10-03-2011, 02:31 PM
I DIDN'T READ YOUR POST BECAUSE I WAS TALKING TO SOMEONE ABOUT THIS CAPS LOCK PROBLEM.

Like I said on Twitter, it's because you're the Dark One.

Weiramon
10-03-2011, 03:04 PM
Burn my soul, it would not be a surprise to hear that this renegade, this Fain fellow, is less than whole without that disgusting blade. That Cauthon lout is lucky and has quick hands, the duty should fall to him to reclaim it.

Of course, how much can one then trust the bearer of such a cursed object?

seabass
10-03-2011, 03:05 PM
maybe its Nynaeve's use of balefire. Who taught her the weave, or where had she seen it used previously?

Not to derail the discussion, but this is always something that has bugged me...

Terez
10-03-2011, 03:13 PM
It's not the first time someone spontaneously came up with a weave. Not even the first time for Nynaeve.

The Unreasoner
10-03-2011, 03:26 PM
I see a lot of 'I agree it's Mat's luck', but what exactly is the agreement? 'The Dark One's own luck' is a saying of the vernacular. Mat and Fain cannot have any part of the DO's own luck. Maybe Morridin can, maybe myrdraal do, but I don't believe that Mat or Fain can channel (thanks for the metaphor GtG, I like it) the Dark One's own luck. They lack the utensils, in a sense.

Maybe Mat has normal luck augmented by forces of the Shadow, but his luck is not, never has been, and never will be qualitatively the same as the DO's.

Zombie Sammael
10-03-2011, 03:28 PM
I see a lot of 'I agree it's Mat's luck', but what exactly is the agreement? 'The Dark One's own luck' is a saying of the vernacular. Mat and Fain cannot have any part of the DO's own luck. Maybe Morridin can, maybe myrdraal do, but I don't believe that Mat or Fain can channel (thanks for the metaphor GtG, I like it) the Dark One's own luck. They lack the utensils, in a sense.

Maybe Mat has normal luck augmented by forces of the Shadow, but his luck is not, never has been, and never will be qualitatively the same as the DO's.

There appear to be two schools of thought on the luck: Terez and everyone else in the camp believe it's to do with Mat's luck being tied to the Dark One, and I believe it's to do with his luck running out. I think "The Dark One's own luck" is obviously a comparable phrase to "The Devil's luck" and we know that the Devil's luck is sometimes luck which turns abruptly after a run of seeming good luck. In that sense, Mat's luck would be qualitatively the Dark One's if it turns on him at a key moment in AMOL, and therefore your problem is solved. What you've articulated is one of the difficulties I see with the idea that his luck is sourced from the Shadow.

Terez
10-03-2011, 03:32 PM
Regardless of your feelings on it, RJ said that Mat has the Dark One's luck. That's still unexplained.

SamJ
10-03-2011, 03:38 PM
I'd love to know why, given the evidence or lack thereof for both theories, you think my "luck runs out" is more of a stretch than Terez's "wine drinking". I'm being serious. It's not an attack on the wine drinking idea, but it does seem (to me, at least) to be the one of the two which has the least amount of evidence, both literally and metaphorically.

I meant that I thought it was more of a stretch from my understanding of what the devil's/DO's luck might mean, i.e. that Mat's luck running out is a little bit different from something that seems to be good luck but is actually bad.

The wine drinking would fit with a deal with the devil - though I really hope that's not the case out of general principles of adoration for Mat.

p.s. apologies for the slow reply (can't often get online while I am at work)

The Unreasoner
10-03-2011, 03:42 PM
RJ said it's true "in a way." Which, as Zombie pointed out, could be normal luck running out at a less than ideal time. After all, we don't know the complete etymology of 'Dark One's own luck'.

And as I pointed out, Mat could have no direct link to the Dark One at all, as long as his normal luck was semi-normally augmented by forces of the Shadow.

If 'Dark One's own luck' is just a label for any luck that is unfortunate, it would depend on the speaker, and satisfy "in a way" for both the Shadow and the 'get me the hell out of the spotlight' Mat.

Zombie Sammael
10-03-2011, 03:45 PM
The people who say Mat has the Dark One's luck tend to be people who've lost to him. So from their point of view, that luck is decidedly bad.

@Terez - what The Unreasoner said. :o

Crispin's Crispian
10-03-2011, 03:52 PM
You're repeating yourself. ;-)

I think "The Dark One's own luck" is obviously a comparable phrase to "The Devil's luck" and we know that the Devil's luck is sometimes luck which turns abruptly after a run of seeming good luck. That might make sense, except when he was rolling the dice in that previously quoted scene, his luck didn't run out. Yet that guy still said he had the "Dark One's own luck." IMO, that means the WoT phrase means something different than what you're suggesting. To whit, you say it about someone who is having really good luck when you are not (you're jealous), or alternately that person's good luck is harming you (e.g. they're beating you at dice).

Like The Unreasoner, I'm not sure exactly what would constitute the firing of that gun. I guess the clue is sufficiently vague that we don't really need to guess at that part. It's just good enough to say, "Mat's luck must be somehow tied to the Dark One in some way" without explaining how it could matter to the plot.

For the record, I've also always liked the idea that he drank the wine. Me != Mat fanboy. ;)

Terez
10-03-2011, 03:57 PM
You're repeating yourself. ;-)

That might make sense, except when he was rolling the dice in that previously quoted scene, his luck didn't run out. Yet that guy still said he had the "Dark One's own luck." IMO, that means the WoT phrase means something different than what you're suggesting. To whit (http://forum.wordreference.com/showthread.php?t=1195828), you say it about someone who is having really good luck when you are not (you're jealous), or alternately that person's good luck is harming you (e.g. they're beating you at dice).
Yeah.

Crispin's Crispian
10-03-2011, 04:08 PM
Yeah.

I have a friend who's last name is Whitaker. To Whit makes perfect sense to me. ;)

Zombie Sammael
10-03-2011, 04:08 PM
You're repeating yourself. ;-)

That might make sense, except when he was rolling the dice in that previously quoted scene, his luck didn't run out. Yet that guy still said he had the "Dark One's own luck." IMO, that means the WoT phrase means something different than what you're suggesting. To whit, you say it about someone who is having really good luck when you are not (you're jealous), or alternately that person's good luck is harming you (e.g. they're beating you at dice).

Like The Unreasoner, I'm not sure exactly what would constitute the firing of that gun. I guess the clue is sufficiently vague that we don't really need to guess at that part. It's just good enough to say, "Mat's luck must be somehow tied to the Dark One in some way" without explaining how it could matter to the plot.

For the record, I've also always liked the idea that he drank the wine. Me != Mat fanboy. ;)

I can see where you're coming from, but whether he drank the wine or not, I don't see what RJ said as indicating that Mat literally has luck provided by the Dark One, or somehow has the abstract part of the DO's personality that is his luck in his possession; both these interpretations seem too literal to require the qualifying phrase "in a way".

Maybe RJ just meant that his luck was capable of harming people such as those who gamble against him, and that they were right about that. Or maybe he meant that even though Mat is luck in that he wins when he gambles, finds the things he wants by random chance, etc, he is unlucky because he gets into all these scrapes and ends up hanging around Aes Sedai and having adventures even though he just wants a warm bed and a girl to "dandle on his knee" (knees never really came into it for me, but each to his own).

Terez
10-03-2011, 04:19 PM
I can see where you're coming from, but whether he drank the wine or not, I don't see what RJ said as indicating that Mat literally has luck provided by the Dark One, or somehow has the abstract part of the DO's personality that is his luck in his possession; both these interpretations seem too literal to require the qualifying phrase "in a way".
The point is, it's unexplained. The luck is unexplained, and RJ's comment is unexplained. With that in mind, RJ's comment could mean a lot of things. The reason the phrase 'in a way' was required was that RJ could hardly tell us straight out that Mat has a connection to the Dark One. And of course, only the Dark One truly has the Dark One's own luck. But he wanted to give us a hint. If you'll notice, the questioner didn't mention the Dark One at all - RJ volunteered that information all on his own. And then he clarified that Mat didn't get that connection to the Dark One through Lanfear.

Terez
10-03-2011, 04:24 PM
One thing I think worth mentioning at this point is Mat's foreshadowed betrayal. I've always had the tendency to think that Mat would never knowingly betray Rand, and I still lean that way. But if Mat has a connection to the Dark One somehow, it could tie into that.

Though I still like the 'betrayed by the Horn' tie to the empty tomb.

Rand al'Fain
10-03-2011, 04:44 PM
Personally, I think Mat's luck is just that of a lucky guy amplified by his tavern'ness. Because in POV (don't have the book on hand at the moment as I'm in Kansas right now) he did say he had always won more often than he lost before this adventure started. And when he came into his "taveren" stage, his luck was amplified, especially in random things. Like with how Perrin eventually became a wolf-talker and Rand came into his channeling and his own taveren-ness. Because before, all three were pretty normal (if taller than the average Two Rivers person), but then they started to come into their own with each diong it a different way.

But that's just how I see it.

Terez
10-03-2011, 04:46 PM
You probably thought Olver was Gaidal Cain too, didn't you?

The Unreasoner
10-03-2011, 04:51 PM
Yeah, that's necessary.

Just because RJ didn't tell us what the source was doesn't mean that it was worth hiding for a reason other than to be able to give us new material.

How does the wine square with the pipe?

Zombie Sammael
10-03-2011, 05:12 PM
The point is, it's unexplained. The luck is unexplained, and RJ's comment is unexplained. With that in mind, RJ's comment could mean a lot of things. The reason the phrase 'in a way' was required was that RJ could hardly tell us straight out that Mat has a connection to the Dark One. And of course, only the Dark One truly has the Dark One's own luck. But he wanted to give us a hint. If you'll notice, the questioner didn't mention the Dark One at all - RJ volunteered that information all on his own. And then he clarified that Mat didn't get that connection to the Dark One through Lanfear.

The sentence "When they say that Mat has the Dark One's own luck, he can get as mad as he wants to, but it is true" does not tell us that Mat has an explicit connection to the Dark One. It tells us that Mat is very lucky, but we know that. It is in fact even more ambiguous than the phrase we did get, because that "in a way" hints that there is something beyond him just being very lucky. RJ didn't have to say it the way he said it. We would have dismissed it off-hand without "in a way" as much as we have up until this point with it. No-one would think that means Mat has a connection to the Dark One, even though RJ could have been hinting at it. He wanted to give us something more. That "in a way" implies that him having the DO's luck is not as simple as him literally having the abstract idea of the DO's luck as a personality trait; it also implies, taken in conjunction with the later comment about it not being a gift from Lanfear, that it's not a result of it being somehow gifted. That "in a way" really works against the idea that it is an effect of some connection to the Dark One, both because the sentence without it doesn't suggest that there is a connection, and because it tends to suggest that Mat having the Dark One's luck isn't because of a direct connection with the Dark One gifting it to him.

Terez
10-03-2011, 05:40 PM
The sentence "When they say that Mat has the Dark One's own luck, he can get as mad as he wants to, but it is true" does not tell us that Mat has an explicit connection to the Dark One.
I never said that it did.

It tells us that Mat is very lucky, but we know that.
Now you're claiming things about this quote that are unknown.

Zombie Sammael
10-03-2011, 07:14 PM
I never said that it did.

Well, what were you saying then? You were certainly trying to use the quote as evidence to back up your theory, which is fine since we both are, but if you're not trying to use it to back up your idea, then why were you using it? :confused:


Now you're claiming things about this quote that are unknown.

I think that whether you believe it comes from the Dark One, ter'angreal, or Bela, it is a fact that Mat Cauthon is very lucky. I also think that, whether you think the quote is telling or hinting that it came from any of those possible places, it is referencing that fact. I'm not claiming anything about the quote that is unknown - I'm merely deducting conclusions using reasoning.

The Unreasoner
10-03-2011, 07:30 PM
This thread has become alot like those protesting idiots on Wall Street. Everyone is saying "Freedom" and "Down with Wall Street" and "Mat's Luck", but the consistency ends there. The Socialists/Anarchists/Environmentalists/anti-Semitics will never reconcile their positions, and neither will the people shouting "Mat's Luck".

Zombie, for that quote to say what you claim, the Dark One would have to be lucky. Which he might be, but that quote doesn't say it. Mat is lucky, Mat may have the Dark One's Luck. But, the Dark One's Luck wouldn't make him lucky, as Terez pointed out.

Terez, what exactly is your position here? 'He drank the wine' + 'RJ alluded to some big fanciful secret Dark origin to Mat's Luck' + 'Mat's Luck is the gun' = Dark Mat?

Zombie Sammael
10-03-2011, 07:35 PM
Zombie, for that quote to say what you claim, the Dark One would have to be lucky. Which he might be, but that quote doesn't say it. Mat is lucky, Mat may have the Dark One's Luck. But, the Dark One's Luck wouldn't make him lucky, as Terez pointed out.

Well hang on a minute - we know the phrase "The Dark One's own luck" is used in Randland to signify someone who is lucky, usually by someone who has suffered through such luck. RJ is just using the phrase in the interview in the same way that he did in the books. I think it's a little obtuse to suggest otherwise. By adding "in a way" he may be suggesting that in fact the phrase can have a different meaning, and I think he is, but that doesn't change the fact that he is specifically referring to the phrase as he used it in the books. It's misdirection, but that doesn't change the way Johnny Cairhien who lost to Mat at the Las Tear Casino uses the phrase "The Dark One's own luck" to describe Mat's sudden winning streak.

The Unreasoner
10-03-2011, 07:47 PM
Hmm. I meant more like...idk...
It's just a saying. If someone said 'It's raining cats and dogs in Baltimore' and some omniscient being told me 'in a way, it's true', it might turn out that some planes are spraying Pet Sweat © all over the city. People say it one way, but have no idea how true or untrue it really is.

It would be ironic (but within Jordan's style) to have the saying be misused normally. And the one time it is used appropriately is by accident. Being lucky doesn't make the statement true, but it did encourage its use in one case where the statement was true (for whatever reasons).

Zombie Sammael
10-03-2011, 07:54 PM
Hmm. I meant more like...idk...
It's just a saying. If someone said 'It's raining cats and dogs in Baltimore' and some omniscient being told me 'in a way, it's true', it might turn out that some planes are spraying Pet Sweat © all over the city. People say it one way, but have no idea how true or untrue it really is.

It would be ironic (but within Jordan's style) to have the saying be misused normally. And the one time it is used appropriately is by accident. Being lucky doesn't make the statement true, but it did encourage its use in one case where the statement was true (for whatever reasons).

I am just completely lost. I don't get for an instant how RJ saying Mat has the DO's luck in a way means that either Mat or the DO aren't actually lucky. Characters in the books say it to mean "lucky" (and Darkfriends have a similar phrase about the WT). All I'm saying is that RJ might be doing a bit of clever wordplay, using the usual meaning as established in the books to trick us, while in fact he means quite the opposite. It's not that far removed from the other theory, really.

Terez
10-03-2011, 07:57 PM
Well, what were you saying then?
I believe it's a clue, with very good reason. I didn't make any claims about knowing exactly what RJ was saying, which is what you are doing.

Zombie Sammael
10-03-2011, 08:00 PM
I believe it's a clue, with very good reason. I didn't make any claims about knowing exactly what RJ was saying, which is what you are doing.

No I'm not. I'm suggesting that your interpretation which you used to back up your theory is incorrect because it's probably too literal, analysing the quote. RJ could have been hinting at anything. I honestly expect us to be more surprised than not in AMOL, and wouldn't be surprised to learn this gun is something completely different from what we're discussing. I have no idea what, but I wouldn't be surprised. By which I mean - no, I'm not dumb enough to think I know what an author meant by an ambiguous quote that may or may not relate to another ambiguous hint. I am smart enough to be able to use it to back up my theory though, just like you are.

I don't know where you or The Unreasoner are getting this stuff from. I'm very confused.

The Unreasoner
10-03-2011, 08:02 PM
Let's say (for a moment) that the defining aspect to the Dark One's luck is the fact that it is strongest on weekends. Let's also say Mat is luckiest on the weekends. Either Mat or the Dark One could be very lucky otherwise. Or both or neither. Independently.

People say that Mat has the DO's luck, and they may be right, but not for the reasons they think. They don't even know what the saying really should mean.

RJ knows both the vernacular and the true meaning of the phrase. We have no way of knowing which he used in the quote.

Zombie Sammael
10-03-2011, 08:06 PM
Let's say (for a moment) that the defining aspect to the Dark One's luck is the fact that it is strongest on weekends. Let's also say Mat is luckiest on the weekends. Either Mat or the Dark One could be very lucky otherwise. Or both or neither. Independently.

People say that Mat has the DO's luck, and they may be right, but not for the reasons they think. They don't even know what the saying really should mean.

RJ knows both the vernacular and the true meaning of the phrase. We have no way of knowing which he used in the quote.

Okay, so all I'm suggesting is that possibly the true meaning is luck that will turn - which seems reasonable based on all the evidence and possible meanings of the phrase's real life equivalent - and that if he was using that meaning, that is what it referred to. "In a way" implies that it does have a different meaning to the usually understood one, and he is referring to the usual meaning in order to give that variance.

I'm not suggesting that because Mat wears a hat and he has the Dark One's luck that when the Dark One appears he will also be wearing a hat.

Zombie Sammael
10-03-2011, 08:07 PM
I mean, it's starting to seem that what you two are suggesting is that there's no way we can possibly know what RJ actually meant by any of his words. In which case one can't help but wonder why Terez is spending so much time compiling an interview database.

The Unreasoner
10-03-2011, 08:13 PM
Because Mat wears a hat and he has the Dark One's luck, when the Dark One appears he will also be wearing a hat.
lol.
Sometimes being selective alone doesn't cut it.

On your point though...

I never thought you were making any real errors. I just disagreed that this was absolutely the case:

it is a fact that Mat Cauthon is very lucky. I also think that, whether you think the quote is telling or hinting that it came from any of those possible places, it is referencing that fact

Basically
it is a fact that Mat Cauthon is very lucky.
True.
it is referencing that fact
I would say this is speculation. But I don't think the DO is really 'lucky' at all. I think he may appear to be lucky.

I really like the Blacksmith/Aiel gun though.

Terez
10-03-2011, 08:23 PM
No I'm not. I'm suggesting that your interpretation which you used to back up your theory is incorrect because it's probably too literal, analysing the quote.
It's not too literal at all, for reasons already explained.

Rand al'Fain
10-03-2011, 09:04 PM
You probably thought Olver was Gaidal Cain too, didn't you?
No.

All that was, was a personal opinion which is all that anyone has come up with.

Yes, RJ likes to be mischeveous with how he worded things. However, as was pointed out, when RJ said "Yes, Mat has the Dark One's own luck," we do NOT know if he was being literal or not. You think he was, I think he was just using one of the most popular sayings in his book, and nothing more.

But don't disregard someone's opnion simply because it's different from yours, and than call them names at that, which never helps a person's stance on anything. So chill out.

SilverMonarch
10-03-2011, 09:11 PM
I'm curious about the Perrin as a blacksmith theory. What opinion do you think the Aiel hold of him participating in battle against non-shadow combatants such as the white cloaks in these chapters? It is generally understood that blacksmiths in Aiel culture do not participate in battle.

eKalb
10-03-2011, 09:15 PM
When RJ said It is true (Mat has 'The DO's own luck') in a way. I can interpret that to mean:

1. It is true Mat is very lucky, but the manner in which he is lucky may not be what it appears.

2. The DO is very lucky, and Mat has been bestowed with the actual luck of the DO (whether by accident or by pact?), but his luck is not quite the same as that of the DO.

3. Mat is very lucky, but being that lucky is unlucky. (Think about how people that know of his luck will not play with him anymore, or are suspicious of him.)

Or it could even be a combination of all of the above.

I'm sure there are several more ways of interpreting the quote, but regardless of which interpretation you subscribe to, the issue of Mat's luck does not really fit the definition of Chekhov's Gun to me. His luck has been too important in the story for it to be considered "apparently irrelevant." It has become a part of his character at this point. You are anticipating it being used in the end. That is the opposite of Checkhov's Gun.

I think it is something that we are not considering, something we really don't have reason to think is important. I think it would be more like the hunters for the Horn Lord Orban and Lord Gann come back to do something, or Huan Mallia turns out to be someone important later (remember his tirade about Aes Sedai? What if it was not because of High Lord Samon's "Be'lal" influence, but because he is a darkfriend in his own right)

I would assume BS would not post about some huge event, but rather something smaller that he felt was an interesting turn of events involving characters brought back from so long ago.

scooter57
10-03-2011, 10:13 PM
You guys are a riot :D

Unreasoned: Yeaaahs! I'll even refrain from further 'ya'll's (ooops) if you keep liking the blacksmith theory :)

Mat luck-ers: how many times has the trigger been pulled on his luck? Has there ever been any speculation in the books about where he gets it from? Other than gamblers complaining about losing? There's been a lot more on-screen conversation about the origin of Perrin's wolfishness than Mat's luckiness. It seems more of a given than a deep dark mystery, RJ's comment notwithstanding. (Ekalb, I quite agree)

Also it is not a 'Chekhov's Gun' in that it does serve a purpose throughout the series, rather than a seemingly pointless plot item (until the surprising reveal). Better examples would be Galad's 'always doing what is right', or Mat's calling Tuon his wife three times.

Now, perhaps I should go re-read chpts. 35-40, and see if I find something better. Probably shouldn't have stopped when I found the blacksmith ref. ;)

Kimon
10-03-2011, 10:26 PM
One thing I think worth mentioning at this point is Mat's foreshadowed betrayal. I've always had the tendency to think that Mat would never knowingly betray Rand, and I still lean that way. But if Mat has a connection to the Dark One somehow, it could tie into that.

Though I still like the 'betrayed by the Horn' tie to the empty tomb.

Perhaps something along the lines of his accidental betrayal while they flickered through the worlds that might be? Albeit there his betrayal seemed linked to disclosing Rand's identity as the Dragon, something which would no longer matter.

On a side note, if his luck was linked to the Dark One via the wine, wouldn't that leave the impression that either the Dark One and/or Moridin should have intended some link through the gift/temptation of the wine, and thus had a long term plan in mind? If that is the case, why would Moridin (and presumably the DO) now want Mat dead? If they set up the gift with something like this in mind, should not the fact that they want him dead imply that this link/theft is disadvantageous to the shadow? If the result was unintended, then what might have been the intended goal behind the wine?

Terez
10-03-2011, 10:56 PM
On a side note, if his luck was linked to the Dark One via the wine, wouldn't that leave the impression that either the Dark One and/or Moridin should have intended some link through the gift/temptation of the wine, and thus had a long term plan in mind? If that is the case, why would Moridin (and presumably the DO) now want Mat dead?
Presumably because it's a gamble. ;)

arioch
10-03-2011, 11:12 PM
How about this--Egwene dreams in TDR that Mat's dicing with the Dark One. Was that The Dark One ever positively identified by RJ as Ishamael/Ba'alzamon?

Terez
10-03-2011, 11:49 PM
Nope. And come to think of it, like I mentioned earlier, the timing of the Caemlyn attack was rather unlucky for Mat, so that might explain the dream, as it was tied to the Ghenjei business.

The Unreasoner
10-04-2011, 12:22 AM
Nope. And come to think of it, like I mentioned earlier, the timing of the Caemlyn attack was rather unlucky for Mat, so that might explain the dream, as it was tied to the Ghenjei business.
It seems like it was unlucky for a lot of people...
So you too think Mat's luck will run out?

Maybe the dice ter'angreal was for Demandred. He's always bitching about the Dragon only being luckier than he is.

jessemb
10-04-2011, 02:52 AM
Hello, first time posting on Theoryland.

One thing I noticed when rereading Mat's chapters is that he has a lot in common with the folklore of who can channel. For example, in New Spring, the Black Ajah hunts down "lucky" men. His wild and crazy night of gambling seems very similar to Rand's Power Acquisition Syndrome in Book 1, where the Dragon dances on top of a mast and gives Whitecloaks the finger (so to speak).

I've heard that there's a quote by RJ or BS that states definitively that Mat cannot channel, but I haven't been able to find it. Can anyone give me a hand with that, if such a quote exists?

If there is no such quote, then could Mat's luck perhaps be related to channeling in some way?

phil01
10-04-2011, 03:56 AM
From memory doesn't his luck seem to get super better after he has blown the horn of valere. Could that be what amplified his luck.

Zombie Sammael
10-04-2011, 04:01 AM
Hello, first time posting on Theoryland.

One thing I noticed when rereading Mat's chapters is that he has a lot in common with the folklore of who can channel. For example, in New Spring, the Black Ajah hunts down "lucky" men. His wild and crazy night of gambling seems very similar to Rand's Power Acquisition Syndrome in Book 1, where the Dragon dances on top of a mast and gives Whitecloaks the finger (so to speak).

I've heard that there's a quote by RJ or BS that states definitively that Mat cannot channel, but I haven't been able to find it. Can anyone give me a hand with that, if such a quote exists?

If there is no such quote, then could Mat's luck perhaps be related to channeling in some way?

There's an interview database here (http://www.theoryland.com/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=372), although I understand Terez is presently working on putting together an improved version. Anyway, I believe this is the quote you were after:

Q: Back on Mat again. Could you comment on whether or not he may be able to channel?
RJ: Nope. Not a chance. Can't do it. He can get anyone in the world to dance with him just about but he can't channel worth a darn note.
Q: He's still young enough for it not to show up, right?
RJ: No he's not going to be . . . He can't channel. But if you approach him the right way he will come to your birthday party on a Harley.

Lupusdeusest
10-04-2011, 04:13 AM
Like I said on Twitter, it's because you're the Dark One.

DAMNIT You beat me!!



(But re the dice - I always just saw it as the manner in which his brain translated it sensing momentous events approaching, much like Nyn's feeling of "storms" coming when the "storm" is actually a battle or bloodbath.)

The Unreasoner
10-04-2011, 04:22 AM
DAMNIT You beat me!!
It's really funny because according to her there is no chance in hell the mystery voice was something other than the DO.
(But re the dice - I always just saw it as the manner in which his brain translated it sensing momentous events approaching, much like Nyn's feeling of "storms" coming when the "storm" is actually a battle or bloodbath.)

LOL.
Duh.
(I think the debate is more on the how)

phil01
10-04-2011, 04:58 AM
When is avendasora first mentioned. That seems to be a big thing that never really does anything.

Or when does Mat start been fluent in the old tongue. I've always thought they mention that the karethenon prophecy could be interpreted wrong so why don't they give the original to Mat to read as he is now fluent in the tongue he may read it properly.

GonzoTheGreat
10-04-2011, 06:06 AM
When is avendasora first mentioned. That seems to be a big thing that never really does anything.The first mention is when Tam is delirious, and starts talking about the Aiel War.

Or when does Mat start been fluent in the old tongue. I've always thought they mention that the karethenon prophecy could be interpreted wrong so why don't they give the original to Mat to read as he is now fluent in the tongue he may read it properly.Rand is also a native speaker of that language.

Then again, considering the way in which Elaida manages to misinterpret the prophecies she herself gives in a language which she does understand, I'm not convinced that merely being fluent would be enough.

Zombie Sammael
10-04-2011, 06:19 AM
Or when does Mat start been fluent in the old tongue. I've always thought they mention that the karethenon prophecy could be interpreted wrong so why don't they give the original to Mat to read as he is now fluent in the tongue he may read it properly.

Mat doesn't start being "fluent" in the Old Tongue until after the incident in Rhuidean. It's also more like he spouts it occasionally instead of what he meant to say in common, and it is connected to the dead men's memories in his head.

GonzoTheGreat
10-04-2011, 06:36 AM
Mat doesn't start being "fluent" in the Old Tongue until after the incident in Rhuidean. It's also more like he spouts it occasionally instead of what he meant to say in common, and it is connected to the dead men's memories in his head.He is sufficiently fluent in the language during his first meeting with the *finn to not even notice that they're using the Old Tongue when they tell him to go to Rhuidean, which happens before he actually gets there.

He was also using it fluently during the Healing episode in the WT.

maacaroni
10-04-2011, 06:44 AM
Ok, so Chekhov had a phaser. Point taken.

The Unreasoner
10-04-2011, 06:58 AM
when they tell him to go to Rhuidean, which happens before he actually gets there.
Lol.

And I've always wondered why Rand never had Mat read the original KC to Min (or Fel). The Elaida analogy only works to a point.

Zombie Sammael
10-04-2011, 07:09 AM
Lol.

And I've always wondered why Rand never had Mat read the original KC to Min (or Fel). The Elaida analogy only works to a point.

That point being that most people in the books aren't as totally clueless as Elaida?

The Unreasoner
10-04-2011, 07:19 AM
Well, if WoT has taught me anything, it's that procrastination is good and when it comes to the most important tasks in life, it's best to wing it. So maybe it's for the best that Mat has been underutilized.

But yeah: Post-coital Min>Elaida

Zombie Sammael
10-04-2011, 07:58 AM
But yeah: Post-coital Min>Elaida

Min gets smarter after sex? *checks the books* Oh yeah. And Rand gets dumber. :eek:

maacaroni
10-04-2011, 10:16 AM
Min gets smarter after sex? *checks the books* Oh yeah. And Rand gets dumber. :eek:

Sounds about right in life, too.

Sei'taer
10-04-2011, 11:12 AM
Sounds about right in life, too.

In other words, Min f&$@ed his brains out.

Isabel
10-04-2011, 12:08 PM
I was kindof skimming through this thread:
Do people want to listen to the following question? I can see if i can find the part of the audio tape.

Question: In the Dragon Reborn, Lanfear visits Mat as he is recuperating from his one power surgery over the dagger. At one point she stretches out her hand towards him and he feels a tingle going over him, somebody interrupts them, and she turns her head and sobs, at about the same time a member of Black Ajah stole angreal and ter’angreal out of the tower cache, one of which was a ter’angreal that was known to have some effect on chance. So it was about this time that Mat’s really really really weird luck and the dice rolling in his head began, is this a connection or coincidence.

Jordan: That is a coincidence. When they say that Mat has the Dark One’s own luck, he can get as mad as he wants to, but in a way it is true. It wasn’t a gift from Lanfear, though.

The Unreasoner
10-04-2011, 12:30 PM
The value of context...
So the Lanfear bit didn't just come out of the blue.
Thanks Isabel

eKalb
10-04-2011, 12:36 PM
Do people want to listen to the following question? I can see if i can find the part of the audio tape.

Yes, please!

SauceyBlueConfetti
10-04-2011, 01:35 PM
EDIT: nevermind, I realized these are from later chapters. Brandon references 30-40

The Dark One's luck seems too obvious.

Two things from TDR always stood out for me. The first has never truly been explained to my liking, the second is just a random thing with pretty heavy threats involved.

1st: Moiraine's little trip, alone, to confirm Sammael is ruling in Illian. Why did she have to go alone without Lan? What exactly happened that caused her to interact with the original Dark Hound (which she killed)? In the same chapters, gray men try to kill the group (Lan, Loial, Perrin, Lan, Moiraine). We are told, by Moiraine, that Sammael sent the Dark Hounds, not the Gray Men. How could she know this? Then, in the hills as they are being hunted by Dark Hounds, Moiraine uses Balefire then is concerned:

TITLE: Dragon Reborn
CHAPTER: 44 - Hunted
Moiraine was peering off toward Illian again, as if she could see through all those miles of darkness. "Perhaps he did not see," she said, almost to herself. "It is far, and if he was not watching, perhaps he did not notice."


Moiraine had some interaction with Sammael, or another Forsaken, all offscreen. She also uses Balefire, which was unheard of previously. What she did offscreen could now be important, as could HOW she knew of Balefire. Why would she care if Sammael saw her use BF? Moiraine quite possibly was the cause of Balefire now being used again...she ended the "truce" as it were.

2nd issue:

The oath that Moiraine has Faile swear in order to continue journeying with them:

TITLE: Dragon Reborn
CHAPTER: 41 - A Hunter's Oath
Moiraine's glance silenced him and the Warder both. "You believe you know what an Aes Sedai will not do, do you?" she said more softly than before. Her smile was not pleasant. "If you wish to go with us, this is what you must do." Lan's eyelids flickered in surprise; the two women stared at each other like falcon and mouse, but Zarine was not the falcon, now. "You will swear by your Hunter's oath to do as I say, to heed me, and not to leave us. Once you know more than you should of what we do, I will not allow you to fall into the wrong hands. Know that for truth, girl. You will swear to act as one of us, and do nothing that will endanger our purpose. You will ask no questions of where we go or why: you will be satisfied with what I choose to tell you. All of this you will swear, or you will remain here in Illian. And you will not leave this marsh until I return to release you, if it takes the rest of your life. That I swear."



then later tells Perrin this:

TITLE: Dragon Reborn
CHAPTER: 41 - A Hunter's Oath
"I have tried to discourage her, but it appears she will perch on your shoulder whatever I do. The Pattern weaves a future for you, it seems. Yet remember this. If I must, I will snip your thread from the Pattern. And if the girl endangers what must be, you will share her fate."
bold is mine

Dunno, but from Moiraine, that is a pretty direct threat. I still don't like Faile, never have. She could be playing more than one side in this and Moiraine will indeed follow through on her threat if it is revealed she has caused problems.

Terez
10-04-2011, 01:40 PM
I was kindof skimming through this thread:
Do people want to listen to the following question? I can see if i can find the part of the audio tape.
Sure, I'd love to listen. I wondered why the audios disappeared from your site.

Saucy, we need examples from chapters 30-40, and both of those are in the 40s and therefore out of the range.

BJam3000
10-04-2011, 01:41 PM
First timer, here. Instead of the Mat's luck, could the gun be the holes in Mat's memory? Is it explicit through the narrative or from author quotes that the holes came because of the dagger? Or even solely from the dagger?

Terez
10-04-2011, 01:47 PM
I think he notices the holes in his memory as soon as he wakes up, which is before chapter 30 (chapter 19). And it's assumed that they're because of the dagger because he had a different mindstate during those months, so it makes more sense than anything else.

Isabel
10-04-2011, 01:53 PM
Sure, I'd love to listen. I wondered why the audios disappeared from your site.

Saucy, we need examples from chapters 30-40, and both of those are in the 40s and therefore out of the range.

It's because i am not that good with websites. I don't know if i can even log into my site to update and change things ;)

I will see what i can do to make it available.

Terez
10-04-2011, 02:00 PM
It's because i am not that good with websites. I don't know if i can even log into my site to update and change things ;)

I will see what i can do to make it available.
If you like, we can host them on the new database until you figure out how to change your website. You can email them to me or Tam (if you're willing). We're hosting a lot of audio files for various interviews, and I don't mind using my dropbox space to make them permanently available.

Alternatively you could make Gonzo update your website. ;)

JOS
10-04-2011, 02:04 PM
So the premise of my thoughts is that Mat's luck is not unique to Mat, it is unique to Ta'veren.

Ta'veren nature bends the pattern, or rather the pattern bends events around the ta'veren so that they can accomplish those things that the Ta'veren needs to accomplish (prophecy etc). Only Mat, of the three Ta'veren, has really tested the boundaries of his ta'veren-ness by doing really stupid things. He is constantly playing chance against his objectives. The pattern works overtime to keep Mat from ruining the age lace and getting himself killed.

That being said, all three of them are extremely lucky. Rand beats blademasters when barely trained, Ishmael's lance doesn't kill him, assassins fail to kill him, his fall from the garden wall in Caemlyn didn't bash his brains out, etc. Perrin rushes into battle like a wild man and comes out barely touched (multiple times), he finds a guide back to civilization and a guide to the wolves in one man at an opportune time, he doesn't get killed by Whitecloaks (there were many opportunities), Aram's attempt to kill him fails, etc.

Ta'veren are lucky. Only Mat tests it constantly because he is a gambler. He is the only one crazy enough to chance it. In the chapters designated by Brandon, Mat overtly "Tosses the Dice" and does things that are outrageous (like leaping off a 40 ft balcony with an assassin trying to knife him). He was lucky before, but he harnesses the luck by noticing it and "channeling" it (he would hate that term) when he needs it.

What happens if Rand decides to toss the dice? We may find that all three of them have The Dark One's Own Luck.

This would fit into the Chekov’s Gun idea as "Tossing the Dice" is so very much like pulling the trigger on luck. Rand and Perrin's luck has always been there, but this is a trigger that Rand and Perrin have not pulled yet, and doing so could turn events significantly.

Cortar
10-04-2011, 02:48 PM
So the premise of my thoughts is that Mat's luck is not unique to Mat, it is unique to Ta'veren.

Ta'veren nature bends the pattern, or rather the pattern bends events around the ta'veren so that they can accomplish those things that the Ta'veren needs to accomplish (prophecy etc). Only Mat, of the three Ta'veren, has really tested the boundaries of his ta'veren-ness by doing really stupid things. He is constantly playing chance against his objectives. The pattern works overtime to keep Mat from ruining the age lace and getting himself killed.

That being said, all three of them are extremely lucky. Rand beats blademasters when barely trained, Ishmael's lance doesn't kill him, assassins fail to kill him, his fall from the garden wall in Caemlyn didn't bash his brains out, etc. Perrin rushes into battle like a wild man and comes out barely touched (multiple times), he finds a guide back to civilization and a guide to the wolves in one man at an opportune time, he doesn't get killed by Whitecloaks (there were many opportunities), Aram's attempt to kill him fails, etc.

Ta'veren are lucky. Only Mat tests it constantly because he is a gambler. He is the only one crazy enough to chance it. In the chapters designated by Brandon, Mat overtly "Tosses the Dice" and does things that are outrageous (like leaping off a 40 ft balcony with an assassin trying to knife him). He was lucky before, but he harnesses the luck by noticing it and "channeling" it (he would hate that term) when he needs it.

What happens if Rand decides to toss the dice? We may find that all three of them have The Dark One's Own Luck.

This would fit into the Chekov’s Gun idea as "Tossing the Dice" is so very much like pulling the trigger on luck. Rand and Perrin's luck has always been there, but this is a trigger that Rand and Perrin have not pulled yet, and doing so could turn events significantly.

I don't think Rand and Perrin have the same luck as Matt, what THEY have are "main-character" shields. I believe this because Matt's Luck is luck with a capital L, the author clearly demonstrates it with the "rolling of the dice" in his head and all of the gambling that Matt wins (Im pretty sure Perrin has gambled with the men at some point in time but he never mentions winning like Matt does)

padfoot89
10-04-2011, 03:21 PM
In a way, Mat's not that lucky. The Pattern has forced him on his path.

JOS
10-04-2011, 03:26 PM
I don't think Rand and Perrin have the same luck as Matt, what THEY have are "main-character" shields. I believe this because Matt's Luck is luck with a capital L, the author clearly demonstrates it with the "rolling of the dice" in his head and all of the gambling that Matt wins (Im pretty sure Perrin has gambled with the men at some point in time but he never mentions winning like Matt does)

My whole idea is that they have the Luck (capital "L"), but they don't use the Luck. I may be able to throw winning dice every time, but if I don’t do it, I will never know.

I see the difference in their luck as being like the difference between Nynaeve's healing as Wisdom and her healing as Aes Sedai. Deliberate use of the power versus accidental or circumstantial use. "Main character shields" are like accidental use of thier Luck.

What sets Mat apart is that he is a gambler and takes chances, he is deliberate in his manipulation of chance. Especially after TDR, Chapter 30, The First Toss. Neither Perrin or Rand do that, but I am theorizing that it would work the same way if they tried it. So if one or all of them "Dice with the Dark One" they could win an improbable victory that is beyond reason, but not beyond infinitesimal chance.

"Do you trust Mat Cauthon?"