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Davian93
10-11-2011, 06:18 PM
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44861178/ns/us_news-security/#.TpTOcnLh-So

If true, Iran crossed a very, very dangerous line.


I wonder how we will end up responding to this...

ShadowbaneX
10-11-2011, 06:22 PM
Question: should the Saudi's be more pissed about this than the US? I mean it was a Saudi Ambassador that was targeted. If it was the US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, ok, that makes sense. The Saudi Ambassador to the US though?

Res_Ipsa
10-11-2011, 06:33 PM
The Saudis gave ISRAEL permission to use their airspace to bomb Iran years ago. It is a safe bet that I think the mutual dislike is well known.

Davian93
10-11-2011, 06:34 PM
Question: should the Saudi's be more pissed about this than the US? I mean it was a Saudi Ambassador that was targeted. If it was the US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, ok, that makes sense. The Saudi Ambassador to the US though?

An attempt to assassinate an accredited diplomat on US soil? We have an obligation to ensure the safety and security of all foreign diplomats on our soil. By most standards, it is an act of war against the US (and Saudi Arabia but definitely the US).

tworiverswoman
10-11-2011, 06:54 PM
"The idea that they would attempt to go to a Mexican drug cartel to solicit murder-for-hire to kill the Saudi ambassador, nobody could make that up, right?" Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said in an interview with The Associated Press. The U.S. criminal complaint said the Iranian plotters hired a would-be assassin in Mexico who was a paid informant for the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration and told U.S. authorities all about their plot, which they code-named "Chevrolet." ... So... just bad luck on their part?




Are we SURE this isn't some kind of movie plot?

Davian93
10-11-2011, 07:05 PM
... So... just bad luck on their part?




Are we SURE this isn't some kind of movie plot?

I was thinking a horribly bad "Wag the Dog" type scenario...written by idiots.

The Unreasoner
10-11-2011, 09:04 PM
Iran is a time bomb. Fortunately not even they are on their side. The only Shia nation left now that Iraq is in shreds. Although I think Saddam was Sunni. But Mahmoud thinks he's xerxes reborn. And the Saudis will jump at the slightest excuse.

I think we let Israel and Saudi Arabia take care of this one.

Kimon
10-11-2011, 09:53 PM
Iran is a time bomb. Fortunately not even they are on their side. The only Shia nation left now that Iraq is in shreds. Although I think Saddam was Sunni. But Mahmoud thinks he's xerxes reborn. And the Saudis will jump at the slightest excuse.

I think we let Israel and Saudi Arabia take care of this one.

Saddam was Sunni. As for Xerxes, certainly were one to model oneself on a great Persian ruler, Xerxes would be an amusingly ironic choice since Xerxes was routed and humiliated by a great naval power of the West.

GonzoTheGreat
10-12-2011, 03:41 AM
"Letting Israel and Saudi Arabia take care of it" may sound good (or not), but what does it mean?

I sincerely doubt Israel would be willing (or able) to station 200,000 man occupation troops in Iran for the next 50 years. I don't think Saudi Arabia would detach more than a platoon to such a folly.
So that leaves a bombing campaign. Using a lot of conventional bombs (and poison gas) got Saddam nowhere. Which leaves nukes.

Are you suggesting that Iran be nuked, and if so, how many million casualties do you want?

Me, I think that it would be far better if some actual attempt at actually reaching peace were made. But I'll admit that is a pipe dream; neither Israel nor the USA want peace.

The Unreasoner
10-12-2011, 04:45 AM
"Letting Israel and Saudi Arabia take care of it" may sound good (or not), but what does it mean?

I don't know. And I don't want to care. You're right, the world police thing was stupid. It's a thankless job, expensive, and futile. There's no way we can fix everyone's fucking problems.

And I have faith in human nature. But I should have said: if Israel and Saudi Arabia want to sort it out, let them.

No one's going to get nuked. Iran's people may take care of it the issue themselves.

The Unreasoner
10-12-2011, 04:55 AM
Saddam was Sunni. As for Xerxes, certainly were one to model oneself on a great Persian ruler, Xerxes would be an amusingly ironic choice since Xerxes was routed and humiliated by a great naval power of the West.

Lol. I meant that I have heard that he is trying to revive some aspects of his culture's paganism. In an apparently somewhat sincere way. I didn't think and just threw out xerxes. Although to be honest, I'm not sure if I have more than two more names to throw out there in its place. Darius? Nebechednezzar?

What naval power? Athens? Or the phonecians/carthagians/whatever they called themselves at the time?

Actually, considering how it all ended, xerxes may end up being spot-on.

Zombie Sammael
10-12-2011, 05:06 AM
I find this frightening:

Manssor Arbabsiar, a 56-year-old U.S. citizen who also holds an Iranian passport, was charged along with Gholam Shakuri

Iran has gone over to the Shadow.

GonzoTheGreat
10-12-2011, 05:20 AM
Apart from the fact that there is no evidence at all that Iran has any intention of being aggressive.
Sure, they're politically active; after having been attacked more or less continuously for 40 years, it is quite understandable that they want to influence those around them in such a way that they are otherwise busy, rather than launching yet another assault on Iran.

And Ahmadinejad is quite busy trying to survive in his position himself, of course. But for that, having some type of foreign policy victory would be a lot better than adding problems on that score. Doesn't mean he wouldn't order an assassination of a Saudi diplomat if he could benefit from that, perhaps. But it is deucedly hard to see how he could benefit from this. He could not openly claim credit, as that would cause far too much trouble. And if it were just a guy killed in America by a Mexican, then Ahmadinejad wouldn't get any advantage from that.

His opponents, on the other hand, might potentially set something like this up.
If it all works out, with no hint of Iranian involvement, then it leads to trouble between the USA and Saudi Arabia. Which is of benefit to Iran, and thus for them a legitimate goal.
If it goes pear shaped somehow, then Ahmadinejad has the problem, which his opponents won't mind too much, as long as it remains manageable.

And then there's the very likely possibility that this is just another case of an informer earning his money by cooking up a scheme for which he can make some idiot take the fall.
In general, the Iranians have been a lot more competent at things like this than most others. And hiring Mexican drug gangs is not their style; they would more likely go with a Palestinian or Lebanese group.

So, all in all, I'll apply the lessons we learned from the Iraq War debacle:
Saddam could not be trusted at all, but he still spoke the truth. The Iranians are a bit more trustworthy. The American government has no credibility whatsoever, until it shows actual evidence instead of mere claims based on "secret proof that can't be revealed for reasons of national security".

GonzoTheGreat
10-12-2011, 05:22 AM
I find this frightening:

Iran has gone over to the Shadow.They only made six of those. Three male, three female.
This is one, Miley Cyrus (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyrus) is another, but where are the other four?

Kimon
10-12-2011, 07:28 AM
Lol. I meant that I have heard that he is trying to revive some aspects of his culture's paganism. In an apparently somewhat sincere way. I didn't think and just threw out xerxes. Although to be honest, I'm not sure if I have more than two more names to throw out there in its place. Darius? Nebechednezzar?

What naval power? Athens? Or the phonecians/carthagians/whatever they called themselves at the time?

Actually, considering how it all ended, xerxes may end up being spot-on.

Xerxes lost the 2nd Persian War because of the Athenian naval victory at Salamis. Nebuchadnezzar wasn't Persian, he was king of Babylon. Cyrus was the greatest of the Persian kings. But yeah, Xerxes seems more fitting under the circumstances.

Davian93
10-12-2011, 11:04 AM
Apart from the fact that there is no evidence at all that Iran has any intention of being aggressive.
Sure, they're politically active; after having been attacked more or less continuously for 40 years, it is quite understandable that they want to influence those around them in such a way that they are otherwise busy, rather than launching yet another assault on Iran.

And Ahmadinejad is quite busy trying to survive in his position himself, of course. But for that, having some type of foreign policy victory would be a lot better than adding problems on that score. Doesn't mean he wouldn't order an assassination of a Saudi diplomat if he could benefit from that, perhaps. But it is deucedly hard to see how he could benefit from this. He could not openly claim credit, as that would cause far too much trouble. And if it were just a guy killed in America by a Mexican, then Ahmadinejad wouldn't get any advantage from that.

His opponents, on the other hand, might potentially set something like this up.
If it all works out, with no hint of Iranian involvement, then it leads to trouble between the USA and Saudi Arabia. Which is of benefit to Iran, and thus for them a legitimate goal.
If it goes pear shaped somehow, then Ahmadinejad has the problem, which his opponents won't mind too much, as long as it remains manageable.

And then there's the very likely possibility that this is just another case of an informer earning his money by cooking up a scheme for which he can make some idiot take the fall.
In general, the Iranians have been a lot more competent at things like this than most others. And hiring Mexican drug gangs is not their style; they would more likely go with a Palestinian or Lebanese group.

So, all in all, I'll apply the lessons we learned from the Iraq War debacle:
Saddam could not be trusted at all, but he still spoke the truth. The Iranians are a bit more trustworthy. The American government has no credibility whatsoever, until it shows actual evidence instead of mere claims based on "secret proof that can't be revealed for reasons of national security".

Saddam could also eat an extra large bag of Doritos in under 15 minutes...you have to respect that.

Crispin's Crispian
10-12-2011, 11:05 AM
I was thinking a horribly bad "Wag the Dog" type scenario...written by idiots.

In this article in the Guardian, an former CIA guy talks about how Iran's Quds Force would never participate in something quite this ridiculous. I have no idea of the guys credibility, but the relevant quote is interesting.

Alleged Iran plot could have been trigger for war in Middle East (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/11/alleged-iran-plot-middle-east-war?INTCMP=SRCH)

Robert Baer, a former CIA agent with long experience of observing the QF, said: "This stinks to holy hell. The Quds Force are very good. They don't sit down with people they don't know and make a plot. They use proxies and they are professional about it. If Kassim Suleimani was coming after you or me, we would be dead. This is totally uncharacteristic of them."

Davian93
10-12-2011, 11:12 AM
In this article in the Guardian, an former CIA guy talks about how Iran's Quds Force would never participate in something quite this ridiculous. I have no idea of the guys credibility, but the relevant quote is interesting.

Alleged Iran plot could have been trigger for war in Middle East (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/11/alleged-iran-plot-middle-east-war?INTCMP=SRCH)


That's kinda what I was thinking to be honest. Iran's SAVAMA (formally SAVAK) is very well trained. They wouldn't do something this half-assed.

Smells like BS to me.

Mort
10-12-2011, 11:37 AM
The U.S. criminal complaint said the Iranian plotters hired a would-be assassin in Mexico who was a paid informant for the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration and told U.S. authorities all about their plot, which they code-named "Chevrolet."

Where is this informant today and is he scared for his life?

GonzoTheGreat
10-12-2011, 11:43 AM
That's kinda what I was thinking to be honest. Iran's SAVAMA (formally SAVAK) is very well trained. They wouldn't do something this half-assed.Stupidity and incompetence are not limited to American Christians, so it is quite possible that there are Iranian Muslims who would be capable of doing something this clumsy too.
Still, it does seem rather out of character.

Davian93
10-12-2011, 11:44 AM
Stupidity and incompetence are not limited to American Christians, so it is quite possible that there are Iranian Muslims who would be capable of doing something this clumsy too.
Still, it does seem rather out of character.

False flag...

Uno
10-12-2011, 12:58 PM
False flag...

Could be. Mossad or CIA?

confused at birth
10-12-2011, 01:13 PM
Could be. Mossad or CIA?

CIA maybe Mossad would have got the job done before they got caught and had to flee the country, prob using EU passports again.

the CIA cannot be a stupid as they seem so they could have set this up for a laugh. pity they didnt bother to wait for a trial to prove anything before throwing shit at the whole of Iran for this but hey why start now?

Juan
10-12-2011, 07:45 PM
Iran's a peaceful country. Let them be, damn it.:rolleyes:

GonzoTheGreat
10-14-2011, 07:44 AM
I've just thought of something:
The accounts I've read so far suggest that a fairly sizeable advance on the payment was already made. What happened to that money?

Is a Mexican US-informer now over a hundred thousand dollars richer?
Did he refund Iran because he didn't keep up his end of the bargain?
Did the USA (or Venezuela) impound the money?

As always, "follow the money" leads to interesting things. And as is usually the case, following the money is not really made simple by those who want to hide their doings.