Who is posing as Sammael?

[M_2K]

I was wondering if you guys had any thoughts on the matter.

[Terez]

We just had a thread (http://www.theoryland.com/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=301) on this.

[M_2K]

I will go read it!

[Terez]

To sum up: most people think it was one of the Forsaken. Demandred, Graendal, and Moridin himself are the favored candidates of the Forsaken. (Of course if it was Moridin, then probably no one actually posed as Sammael.)

I still think it was Fain. The Sammael-posing is quite optional in that scenario. :D

[M_2K]

on WoTmania, and I think Graendal was the top suspect. i like to hear all the arguments tho!

I don't think anyone mentioned FAin, but I think he is a probable candidate too.

But I forget the details, and that thread looks like it has plenty to digest! :D

[Terez]

I think Dragon posted a lot in that thread. He's from Wotmania (though he goes by a different name there) and he thinks it was Graendal.

[Sodas]

On WoTmania, Graendal is the top suspect for just about anything that has happened off stage. Slayer's point of saying that he was sure the Employer was male is the closet thing we have to a fact in this case.

[Terez]

What does Slayer have to do with it?

[Sodas]

Blah, for some reason I read who is posing as Sammael as who is employing Slayer :D My bad.

[M_2K]

Well, who is controlling Slayer. :P Nah, that is for another post.

[The Seeker]

IM agreeing with Fain on this one.

[Weird Harold]

Well, who is controlling Slayer. :P Nah, that is for another post.
The same person who posed as Sammael?

That is two attack on Rand ordered by someone with the knowledge and possiblly the authority of a Forsaken against the general policy of the Shadow.

[The Immortal One]

The same person who posed as Sammael?

I agree, but I'm still unconvinced of who that person is.

[Sodas]

For Sammael, my top 3 in order...

1. Moridin
2. Demandred
3. Graendal

I think Moridin is the best candidate because I believe he lied about Sammael possibly resurfacing. I think this is a ploy to out unloyal Forsaken. I think this is evidenced by the question reguarding the chair count to begin that meeting. I also think Moridin is the one issuing these orders to the Fades, but I think it's possible that they are doing it thinking that Taim is Sammael. I think Taim might be posing as Sammael, hinted by using that signil of a fist holding lightning bolts.

Demandred's reaction was too smug, so that implicates him. There is one problem though with Demandred, and that is that his attack would seem redundant considering his alliance with Semirhage.

Graendal is a good candidate because of her past interaction with Sammael, obviously. However, she has been trying to stay away from direct confrontation with Rand. So this would be a puzzling choice.

[Yuri33]

I think Moridin is the best candidate because I believe he lied about Sammael possibly resurfacing.

The chair thing is interesting, but any gain from setting up this whole thing is balanced by the loss of intimidation Moridin has with the other Forsaken. He's admitting to a lack of knowledge, and that's not really his style.

There is one problem though with Demandred, and that is that his attack would seem redundant considering his alliance with Semirhage.

The Forsaken are always playing their own games, alliances or not. There's no evidence that Demandred knew anything about Semirhage's plan to capture Rand.

Graendal is a good candidate because of her past interaction with Sammael, obviously. However, she has been trying to stay away from direct confrontation with Rand. So this would be a puzzling choice.

Sending an army under deceptive pretenses to wipe out Rand is the very definition of avoiding a direct confrontation. Make the order appear to come from Sammael, and nothing gets traced back to her. Rand can in no way figure out that it might have been Greandal.

[Terez]

I agree that Graendal is a much stronger candidate than Demandred. Not only was the Shadowspawn attack "the very definition of avoiding a direct confrontation", Graendal's whole plan with Sammael in the first place was to somehow goad him into killing Rand, in a way that would take care of the problem while leaving her entirely free of blame for not following the Dark One's orders.

[Sodas]

The chair thing is interesting, but any gain from setting up this whole thing is balanced by the loss of intimidation Moridin has with the other Forsaken. He's admitting to a lack of knowledge, and that's not really his style.
Either way, he is admitting to a lack of knowledge. It seems worst to me to admit you really have a problem to the group of people most likely to want to stab you in the back when your lacking, than admitting you lack control so that you can be expecting the traitors to pounce.
The Forsaken are always playing their own games, alliances or not. There's no evidence that Demandred knew anything about Semirhage's plan to capture Rand.
No evidence that they aren't communicating either. I feel it's likely that they do talk, and they worked in concert to get him to see Semirhage in the first place. But that is my gut feeling, and that is why my list is what it is.

Sending an army under deceptive pretenses to wipe out Rand is the very definition of avoiding a direct confrontation. Make the order appear to come from Sammael, and nothing gets traced back to her. Rand can in no way figure out that it might have been Greandal.
Deceptive pretenses? That is not what I call 100,000 Trollocs from all the different clans. It was a statement.

And not just a statement to Rand, but to Moridin (if you don't think he sent them). Even if she thinks she can fool the Fades or Rand, it has been noticed. So she failed at avoiding notice.

[The Immortal One]

Even if she thinks she can fool the Fades or Rand, it has been noticed. So she failed at avoiding notice.

The point is though, that the attack by SAMMAEL was noticed - not an attack by Graendal.

[Sodas]

The point is though, that the attack by SAMMAEL was noticed - not an attack by Graendal.
Sammael is dead. Toast. And Moridin knows that. Why on earth would Moridin think this attack was really by Sammael?

The difference here is that anyone impersonating Sammael instantly casts a shadow upon Graendal because of their past relationship. So choosing to parade as Sammael would be dumb on her part. If she wanted to do it without notice, there are way better choices than the guy that just got iced by Rand and Moridin while you were looting his stash.

[GonzoTheGreat]

On the other hand, Demandred or Mesaana could have chosen this method, specifically to cast doubt on Graendal.
Then there is Cyndane: I do not know whether she has enough freedom to manage it, but if she does then she's definitely a suspect.

[Yuri33]

Sammael is dead. Toast. And Moridin knows that.

I'm not sure there's definitive proof that Moridin knows for sure.

Why on earth would Moridin think this attack was really by Sammael?

He didn't rule that out, he said someone who appeared as Sammael instigated the attack, which implicates all the remaining Forsaken.

The difference here is that anyone impersonating Sammael instantly casts a shadow upon Graendal because of their past relationship.

Who can we be sure knew about their alliance? After all, no one but Greandal knew about Sammael tracking down the Ebou Dar stash of *angreal, and Greandal certainly didn't tell anyone about it (she kept her ring angreal a secret). A Sammael impersonation casts suspicion on Greandal from our perspective, but we can't be so sure about Moridin's or any other Forsaken's perspective.

[Sodas]

I'm not sure there's definitive proof that Moridin knows for sure.
That's absurd. Moridin did not help Rand kill Sammael only to leave it to chance. We have been around and around on this point before, and it's still valid. Moridin should have watched Sammael die. And that doesn't even mention the Dark One as a source for verifying what happened that day.

Either by witness or by the DO, Moridin should know if Sammael is dead or not.
He didn't rule that out, he said someone who appeared as Sammael instigated the attack, which implicates all the remaining Forsaken.
No, that was AFTER Moridin LIED. Moridin said Sammael seemed to have "resurfaced." Obviously, that is impossible, as Graendal immediately made clear.

It wasn't until AFTER Graendal and Demandred saying it was impossible, that you have Moridin admit it might have been someone else posing as Sammael.

The point is, there is no Forsaken that actually thinks this attack means Sammael is alive. So of course everyone is going to start looking at each other suspiciously, in particular Graendal.
Who can we be sure knew about their alliance? After all, no one but Greandal knew about Sammael tracking down the Ebou Dar stash of *angreal, and Greandal certainly didn't tell anyone about it (she kept her ring angreal a secret). A Sammael impersonation casts suspicion on Greandal from our perspective, but we can't be so sure about Moridin's or any other Forsaken's perspective.
Because he spied on them in ACOS Ch. 20

On top of that, Cyndane, in TPOD Ch. 12, clearly says Sammael is dead to Graendal. Since Cyndane is speaking for Moridin in this case, it's pretty clear that Moridin wants everyone to know Sammael is dead. And it's also clear - alot of people know about Graendal and Sammael. Their relationship in the Age of Legends isn't exactly a secret either.

[Terez]

Moridin might not have intended to leave Sammael's death to chance, but he didn't anticipate the balefire incident, and he was obviously shook up over that. It's quite possible that he left for that reason. Rand was right there, and even he wasn't really sure if Sammael died because he wasn't looking at the right instant (he got distracted by Liah).

[Yuri33]

Because he spied on them in ACOS Ch. 20

And because Greandal wasn't aware of this spying it doesn't change her motivation to try and instigate an attack by impersonating Sammael. In her mind, this could represent a way to go after Rand without confronting him directly.

[Sodas]

Yuri,
Do you think the KOD attack was planned to succeed?

[GonzoTheGreat]

I think it was planned to succeed, but whoever ordered it wasn't bothered when it failed. It was a long shot using someone else's Trollocs, so there was not much of an investment in it.

[greatwolf]

Yuri,
Do you think the KOD attack was planned to succeed?

I really doubt that. Initially i thought the attack was Fain's doing and then I thought he wanted the attack to succeed but as usual also hoped that Rand would survive it. But now i think its unlikely to be Fain mainly because of the way it was carried out.

First, i noticed Both Rand and Cadsuane noticed the trollocs at practically the same moment. That in itself is curious. It makes me think of a curtain being drawn. I can only think that something prevented anyone from seeing or sensing the trollocs earlier. This and the fact that so many trollocs were involved rules out Fain for me. I don't think Fain is sane enough to do any complex planning.

Most importantly, Fain operates alone. I don't have any idea how the trollocs got as far as Tear from shayol ghul, but i doubt any one man could have done it. Whoever did it would have to move a hundred thousand trollocs over large distances undetected. Can anyone do that?

I am afraid that if RJ did not clear this up in his notes, it may remain forever unresolved.