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greatwolf
03-24-2012, 03:02 AM
It was Rand laughing, on his knees on the stones of the quay. Laughing, with tears streaming down a
face twisted like a man being put to the question. Moiraine felt a chill. If the madness had him, it was beyond
her. She could only do what she could do. What she must do.
The sight of Lanfear hit her like a blow. Not surprise, but the shock of seeing what had been in her
dreams so often since Rhuidean. Lanfear standing on the wagonbed, blazing bright as the sun with saidar,
framed by the twisted redstone ter’angreal as she stared down at Rand, a pitiless smile on her lips. She was
turning a bracelet in her hands. An angreal; unless Rand had his
own angreal, she should be able to crush him with that. Either he did, or Lanfear was toying with him. It
did not matter. Moiraine did not like that circle of carved age-dark ivory. At first glance it seemed to be an
acrobat bending backwards to grip his ankles. Only a closer look would show that his wrists and ankles were
bound together. She did not like it, but she had brought it out of Rhuidean. Yesterday she had taken the bracelet
from a sack of odds-and-ends and left it lying there at the foot of the doorframe.
Moiraine was slight, a small woman. Her weight did not disturb the wagon at all as she pulled herself
up. She winced as her dress caught on a splinter and tore, but Lanfear did not look around. The woman had
dealt with every threat except Rand; he was the only corner of the world she acknowledged in the least right
then.
Suppressing a small bubble of hope-she could not allow herself that luxury-Moiraine balanced upright a
moment on the wagontail, then embraced the True Source and leaped at Lanfear. The Forsaken had an instant’s
warning, enough to turn before Moiraine struck her, clawing the bracelet away. Face to face, they toppled
through the doorframe ter’angreal. White light swallowed everything.


Since the first day I reached Rhuidean, I have known-it need not
trouble you how,’ some secrets belong to others, and I will not betray
them-that a daywould come in Cairhien when news would arrive of
Morgase. I did not know what that would be-if what we heard is true, the
Light have mercy on her soul; she was willful and stubborn, with the
temper of a lioness at times, but for all that a true, good and gracious
queen-but each time that news led to the docks on the following day.
There were three branches from the docks, but if you are reading this, I am
gone, and so is Lanfear

Rand’s hands tightened on the pages. She had known. Known, and still she brought him here. Hurriedly
he smoothed out the crumpled paper.
The other two paths were much worse. Down one, Lanfear killed
you. Down the other, she carried you away, and when next we saw you,
you called yourself Lews Therm Telamon and were her devoted lover.
I hope that Egwene and Aviendha have survived unharmed. You
see, I do not know what happens in the world after, except perhaps for one
small thing which does not concern you.
I could not tell you, for the same reason I could not tell Lan. Even
given the choices, 1 could not be sure which you would pick. Men of the
Two Rivers, it seems, retain’ much of storied Manetheren in them, traits
shared with men of the Borderlands. It is said that a Borderlander will take
a dagger’s wound to avoid harm to a woman and count it fair trade. I dared
not risk that you would place my life above your own, certain that
somehow you could sidestep fate. Not a risk, I fear, but a foolish certainty,
as today has surely proved....
“My choice, Moiraine,” he muttered. “It was my choice.” A few final points.

So I'm asking what would/could have happened if Moiraine had taken or killed Lanfear at the docks? I think the opportunity was there for several reasons.

1. Moiraine was able to take away Lanfear's angreal. Even if it lasted only an instant, we've seen in the previous chapter how much can happen in each heartbeat. Rand was able to do a lot in three even without an angreal. Since an angreal increases strength, and therefore the speed and precision of a channeler's weaving, Moiraine would have been able to do a lot more in that time window.

2. Lanfear's surprise. In the same moment that Moiraine took away the bracelet, what happened to Lanfear? Surprise for one, but very likely a lot more. For one thing we know she stopped channeling at Rand entirely. Very possibly removing the angreal this way might have robbed Lanfear of the OP for a brief moment.

That interval is where so many possibilities lie. At that range, and in shock, I see no way Lanfear would have survived BF from Moiraine especially with the bracelet angreal or her own. Even without angreal, its unlikely she'd have survived.

Apart from BF, a number of things that Moiraine could have done in that instant (a club of air is simple and very fast with an angreal to aid I believe) that could have put paid to Lanfear temporarily or permanently.

But there's no hint at all that Moiraine even tried. Was she afraid? I find it hard to believe of her. She had faced Belal, Aginor and co without running. Why would she balk for Lanfear now?

Yet her letter to Rand does not tell us for sure if she considered the possibility. If she tried killing Lanfear, did it end in failure? And therefore she opted to take this choice? Or is it that she didn't think of it at all?

Since we know that Lanfear is back as Cyndane, it seems certain her plan didn't work as well as she thought. Maybe killing Lanfear would have been better if she had actually thought of it. A shame.

ETA:

Moiraine had several things going for her in that moment of time. First Lanfear was temporarily stunned by the twin assault - physical and the loss of the angreal.

Two, the bracelet makes Moiraine the more powerful of the two for that moment. Three Moiraine had the opportunity to revise the situation beforehand. She set the trap and chose her ground, Rand and Lanfear were position were she knew they would be. She had both surprise and foreknowledge to play with.

Four Moiraine wasn't an ignorant novice. She'd faced Aginor, then killed Belal with balefire. She had experience facing forsaken. The method she used for Belal could have worked here too with one or two major differences. Lanfear can see her weaves and she has a very strong angreal (two if you count her own).

The question here of course is time. How soon can she weave whatever she wants to use for offence and how quickly can Lanfear recover and respond. Depending on the strength of the angreal, Moiraine might be far, far faster than Lanfear without angreal.

But what can she weave in the interval that would gurantee Lanfear's defeat as well as her own and Rand's survival? Going through the rings, I don't think Moiraine was able to answer this question. I don't think one has the opportunity of pausing and rewinding inside the Rhuidean terangreal. More likely, Moiraine viewed possible futures based on her likely responses to different situations.

Things that she was unlikey to do (such as thinking of matching or capturing a forsaken) were probably not part of the futures she viewed. You can't blame her for not wanting to risk the fate of the world on chancy things, but maybe if she's dared to think on it while she was in the terangreal, the outcome for the world might be quite different.

Consider the immediate aftermath. Rand faced Rahvin without her, and might not have survived without nynaeve and a captured forsaken! If Moiraine had captured Lanfear, perhaps the pattern would not have needed nyn to capture Moggy! And Moiraine might have learnt far more from Lanfear than the three girls ever did from Moghedien!

And what if captivity turned Lanfear as it almost did Asmodean? What then? Imagine Lanfear teaching the dreamwalkers or helping Asmodean teach Rand? or even just training the three girls (plus a few WOs?) To me the possibilities are staggering and practically endless.

Well its all what if ~sighs~

finnssss
03-24-2012, 06:02 AM
You're forgetting Mo's trip through the rings in Rhuidean and what answers she got from the Finns in Tear.

After reading the letters to Rand and Thom, the simple conclusion is that this is how it had to be.
That the path and actions she took were the ones that had the highest chance of succeeding.

Oden
03-24-2012, 06:55 AM
Originally posted by greatwolf
Since an angreal increases strength, and therefore the speed and precision of a channeler's weaving
I did not know that more strength automatically made you you faster and increased dexterity. Where does that say? It has no correlation with real life, i.e. Mr. Universe is not faster than sprinters or better at knitting than my mother.

As for the window of oppotunity when Lanfear's OP control was gone, I think it was smaller than you think (you have underlined the important part). I see it as if Moiraine had prepaired a weave, Lanfear would have known before Moiraine came close enough to reach Lanfear with her leap. It was the embracing that notified Lanfear that someone else was close.

Seth Baker
03-24-2012, 12:52 PM
So I'm asking what would/could have happened if Moiraine had taken or killed Lanfear at the docks? I think the opportunity was there for several reasons.

1. Moiraine was able to take away Lanfear's angreal. Even if it lasted only an instant, we've seen in the previous chapter how much can happen in each heartbeat. Rand was able to do a lot in three even without an angreal. Since an angreal increases strength, and therefore the speed and precision of a channeler's weaving, Moiraine would have been able to do a lot more in that time window.

2. Lanfear's surprise. In the same moment that Moiraine took away the bracelet, what happened to Lanfear? Surprise for one, but very likely a lot more. For one thing we know she stopped channeling at Rand entirely. Very possibly removing the angreal this way might have robbed Lanfear of the OP for a brief moment.

That interval is where so many possibilities lie. At that range, and in shock, I see no way Lanfear would have survived BF from Moiraine especially with the bracelet angreal or her own. Even without angreal, its unlikely she'd have survived.

Apart from BF, a number of things that Moiraine could have done in that instant (a club of air is simple and very fast with an angreal to aid I believe) that could have put paid to Lanfear temporarily or permanently.

But there's no hint at all that Moiraine even tried. Was she afraid? I find it hard to believe of her. She had faced Belal, Aginor and co without running. Why would she balk for Lanfear now?

Yet her letter to Rand does not tell us for sure if she considered the possibility. If she tried killing Lanfear, did it end in failure? And therefore she opted to take this choice? Or is it that she didn't think of it at all?

Since we know that Lanfear is back as Cyndane, it seems certain her plan didn't work as well as she thought. Maybe killing Lanfear would have been better if she had actually thought of it. A shame.

I think it's a reasonable deduction that Cyndane has a role left to play and that if Moiraine had succeeded in killing Lanfear with the almost-sa'angreal, Cyndane would not have been present when needed to play her part.

Or maybe it would have alienated Rand and distanced him from her further, and led to a splintering of the forces of Light as Egwene, Elayne, Aviendha, and the Wise Ones took the side of Moiraine, and Rand lost his shit? Less likely than the first, but possible.

Or maybe Moiraine had to leave so that Rand was free to make his own decisions without her input.

I don't think it's fitting with what we know of Rhuidean and the Finns to assume that Moiraine could have just killed Lanfear and didn't think of it. It's kind of ridiculous.

I did not know that more strength automatically made you you faster and increased dexterity. Where does that say? It has no correlation with real life, i.e. Mr. Universe is not faster than sprinters or better at knitting than my mother.


It doesn't.

suttree
03-24-2012, 01:07 PM
Since an angreal increases strength, and therefore the speed and precision of a channeler's weaving, Moiraine would have been able to do a lot more in that time window.


Source?

That would seem to counter RJ's men can be stronger/women more dexterous quote.

The Unreasoner
03-24-2012, 03:05 PM
What would have happened is that Lanfear would be dead, and our Gollum card would be lost.

Enigma
03-25-2012, 11:30 AM
An Angreal lets you draw more raw amounts of the one power, I don't ever recall seeing anything to say that it can make you more skilled more dexterous or even a faster weaver.

As far as I can remember Moirane did not know how to hide her channeling. Without the angreal she might not be in Lanfear's league but once she embraced the sourse she either only draws very lightly so she avoids detectiong but can't do much or she draws her full amount and she would have to pop up on Lanfear's radar. If she drawns through the angreal her radar signature just jumped up a few notches.

Lanfear with her angreal had enought power available to attack Rand and fend off his counter attachs at the same time. This is not a Nynaeve v Moggy where each is fully occupying each other. As soon as Lanfear detects Moiraine channeling she would have to attack and strike to kill. She could not afford to fend off Moirane and Rand at the same time. Even if she had enought power she would have to divide her contration to deal with both.

Some of the forsaken suck at personal conflict. Asmodean is one example so is Moggy but Lanfear has never been portrayed as incompitent at one power duels. She was able to take on the Seanchan former damane at the cleansing even though she was reduced in strenght and the ex damane had an angreal and paris net. Despite this she was able to fight to a draw.

The way I see it Moiraine had three choices. Option 1 is she did what she did, creep up on Lanfear without holding the OP and tackle her the way she did or option 2

She embraces the Source, draws on the angreal and tries to prepare balefire or something instantly lethal and there is a very good chance that Lanfear nukes her the moment she feel her embrasing the source.

Option 3 is Moiraine tires to go with the capture mode instead of killing Lanfear. The result would likely be the same only now Lanfear can either nuke her the moment she starts channeling or if she is not fast enought she has a good chance of fending off Moiraines attack and gets a second chance of destroying her.

The only way it could have played out any differents was if Rand was strong enought, skilled enought and mentally forused enought to occupy 100% of Lanfears attention and channeling ability and at that point he was not there.

greatwolf
03-29-2012, 08:02 AM
You're forgetting Mo's trip through the rings in Rhuidean and what answers she got from the Finns in Tear.

After reading the letters to Rand and Thom, the simple conclusion is that this is how it had to be.
That the path and actions she took were the ones that had the highest chance of succeeding.


You sound like a Moiraine fan :) . How do we know she even considered other alternatives let alone all? We're only told of three options in her letter to Rand. While I said it shouldn't be the case, it is entirely possible she felt she couldn't risk confronting Lanfear.

The window that I think she didn't (couldn't) dwell on is the time window when she grabs the bracelet from Lanfear. We know from others that losing the OP that way can stun or burn the ability out of the victim. Though it didn't burn out Lanfear, it gave opportunity for Moiraine to embrace the source (Avi would have used a knife) and attack her.

But what did she attack with? We know little of what happens after but its now clear Moiraine intended to carry Lanfear into the doorway believing she could survive. But if she'd used a fireball for instance at that range, might Lanfear be dead and Moiraine free to continue at Rand's side?

A fireball is just an example, but one that I believe can be quickly made(even without angreal) and very difficult to counter when you're going hand to hand. It would be over before Lanfear could register the fact. And if Moiraine used the bracelet to make it while carrying Lanfear towards the doorway...

There could be any number of things that Moiraine could have done in that time window that might have ensured a different outcome. But its unlikely she saw all the possible future branches after snatching away the bracelet.


Angreal lets you draw more raw amounts of the one power, I don't ever recall seeing anything to say that it can make you more skilled more dexterous or even a faster weaver.


I thought this was well known. I'll have to look for it, its been ages.

and our Gollum card would be lost

Unsure what you mean, but really can you imagine a wilder card than Moiraine? Would dumai wells have happened? Would she have built a stronger relationship with the WOs and be doing what Egwene is doing for them now? Would Taim have been removed before now? Would Rand have thrown his support to the SAS? Would they have made Moiraine amyrlin instead of Egwene?

Like a said, a really wild card.

greatwolf
03-29-2012, 08:10 AM
I hope this helps with the precison thing. There's a much better one early on in the series.

yet even Renaile agreedůif reluctantlyůthat the more Power
directed through the Bowl, the better the chances of being able to heal the weather. It must be directed with a
precision impossible except for one woman alone or a circle, though. A full circle of thirteen it had to be. That
thirteen certainly would include Nynaeve and Aviendha and Elayne herself, and probably

GonzoTheGreat
03-29-2012, 09:44 AM
But what did she attack with? We know little of what happens after but its now clear Moiraine intended to carry Lanfear into the doorway believing she could survive. But if she'd used a fireball for instance at that range, might Lanfear be dead and Moiraine free to continue at Rand's side?
I think that was a matter of timing. At which Lanfear was probably better than Moiraine.

Consider the following scenarios:

1. Moiraine grabs the OP. Lanfear becomes aware that Moiraine is once again a threat. Moiraine starts to form an offensive weave, but Lanfear is quicker and kills Moiraine.

2. Moiraine does not grab the OP, but tackles Lanfear. Lanfear uses the OP to save herself from falling through the doorway, then uses the OP to kill Moiraine.

3. Moiraine starts to tackle Lanfear. Just before she strikes, she embraces the OP. Lanfear becomes aware of Moiraine, but before she can do anything about it, Moiraine claws control of the angreal away from her, thus disrupting Lanfear's operations. They fall through the doorway together.

So I think that Moiraine just plain did not have time to do anything other than use Newtonian physics and surprise in order to rid of Lanfear.
She could have tried to do something else, but that would have taken more time, and she knew that she would not have the time required.

Seth Baker
03-29-2012, 10:55 AM
I thought this was well known. I'll have to look for it, its been ages.

I don't think so. All of the first person angreal use we see indicates that it is merely increasing the amount of power you have access to, not having any other effect. If it had some other effect, you'd think Rand would have noticed it while using Callandor or the Choedan Kal, or Egwene when using the White Tower sa'angreal.

Would they have made Moiraine amyrlin instead of Egwene?

Not a chance. They not only wanted someone who was out of the Tower, they wanted (and wanted primarily) someone who all of the factions believed they could control, so that they could get a consensus on that individual. Egwene was chosen because Sheriam clique, the Romanda clique, and the Lelaine clique all believed that they could control her.

greatwolf
03-29-2012, 04:19 PM
I think that was a matter of timing. At which Lanfear was probably better than Moiraine.

Consider the following scenarios:

1. Moiraine grabs the OP. Lanfear becomes aware that Moiraine is once again a threat. Moiraine starts to form an offensive weave, but Lanfear is quicker and kills Moiraine.

2. Moiraine does not grab the OP, but tackles Lanfear. Lanfear uses the OP to save herself from falling through the doorway, then uses the OP to kill Moiraine.

3. Moiraine starts to tackle Lanfear. Just before she strikes, she embraces the OP. Lanfear becomes aware of Moiraine, but before she can do anything about it, Moiraine claws control of the angreal away from her, thus disrupting Lanfear's operations. They fall through the doorway together.

So I think that Moiraine just plain did not have time to do anything other than use Newtonian physics and surprise in order to rid of Lanfear.
She could have tried to do something else, but that would have taken more time, and she knew that she would not have the time required.


Option one is out of it. But option three's closer to what I'm talking about. How much time does Moiraine have between clawing away the bracelet and falling into the doorway? What could she have done in that time with or without angreal?

I think Moiraine missed a very good opportunity here, but as RJ used to remind us, who's perfect?

they wanted (and wanted primarily) someone who all of the factions believed they could control, so that they could get a consensus on that individual

But only after they were pushed in that direction by Moiraine's closest friend, Suian. And despite realizing they do not control Egwene now, they still accept her as amyrlin.

Moiraine being a blue and a legend of sorts is the kind of choice many of them would have wanted. And bringing Rand's support to their cause would have carried a lot of weight even with those who were standing aside.

Moiraine's profile would have overshadowed Elaida's quite easily. She had killed Belal and now adds Lanfear (saving Rand both times), born to a noble house, discovered BF on her own, etc etc. Elaida might have looked back to find she'd been dumped.

GonzoTheGreat
03-30-2012, 04:53 AM
Option one is out of it. But option three's closer to what I'm talking about. How much time does Moiraine have between clawing away the bracelet and falling into the doorway? What could she have done in that time with or without angreal?
The problem for Moiraine was that she was simply not as good as Lanfear. So if Moiraine had had time to do anything, then Lanfear could have done that same thing, or something more effective, sooner.
Thus, the only option Moiraine had was making sure that Lanfear did not have the time to do anything drastic before she was taken out of the picture entirely. This also meant that Moiraine could not use the OP against Lanfear, of course, but seeing as how that was never a serious option anyway, that is not a big loss.

In a way, it is the same method Nynaeve used to win against Moghedien the first time: do not depend on the OP, as her opponent has more experience with that (though not more skill nor more power, in that case), but instead go for the tactics of a tavern brawl. That is something the female Forsaken aren't experienced in, so at best they do not do any better than their opponents.

greatwolf
03-30-2012, 05:41 AM
So if Moiraine had had time to do anything, then Lanfear could have done that same thing, or something more effective, sooner.
Thus, the only option Moiraine had was making sure that Lanfear did not have the time to do anything drastic before she was taken out of the picture entirely. This also meant that Moiraine could not use the OP against Lanfear


Lets correct something first. Moiraine likely used the OP since she embraced as she hit Lanfear. And with all the lightning and what not afterward, I think she used the OP against Lanfear.

As to your position, I'll repeat what I said in the OP. Moiraine had several things going for her in that moment of time. First Lanfear was temporarily stunned by the twin assault - physical and the loss of the angreal.

Two, the bracelet makes Moiraine the more powerful of the two for that moment. Three Moiraine had the opportunity to revise the situation beforehand. She set the trap and chose her ground, Rand and Lanfear were position were she knew they would be. She had both surprise and foreknowledge to play with.

Four Moiraine wasn't an ignorant novice. She'd faced Aginor, then killed Belal with balefire. She had experience facing forsaken. The method she used for Belal could have worked here too with one or two major differences. Lanfear can see her weaves and she has a very strong angreal (two if you count her own).

The question here of course is time. How soon can she weave whatever she wants to use for offence and how quickly can Lanfear recover and respond. Depending on the strength of the angreal, Moiraine might be far, far faster than Lanfear without angreal.

But what can she weave in the interval that would gurantee Lanfear's defeat as well as her own and Rand's survival? Going through the rings, I don't think Moiraine was able to answer this question. I don't think one has the opportunity of pausing and rewinding inside the Rhuidean terangreal. More likely, Moiraine viewed possible futures based on her likely responses to different situations.

Things that she was unlikey to do (such as thinking of matching or capturing a forsaken) were probably not part of the futures she viewed. You can't blame her for not wanting to risk the fate of the world on chancy things, but maybe if she's dared to think on it while she was in the terangreal, the outcome for the world might be quite different.

Consider the immediate aftermath. Rand faced Rahvin without her, and might not have survived without nynaeve and a captured forsaken! If Moiraine had captured Lanfear, perhaps the pattern would not have needed nyn to capture Moggy! And Moiraine might have learnt far more from Lanfear than the three girls ever did from Moghedien!

And what if captivity turned Lanfear as it almost did Asmodean? What then? Imagine Lanfear teaching the dreamwalkers or helping Asmodean teach Rand? or even just training the three girls (plus a few WOs?) To me the possibilities are staggering and practically endless.

Well its all what if ~sighs~

GonzoTheGreat
03-30-2012, 06:30 AM
What if the captured Lanfear and Rand had gotten together again, and then decided to use the Choedan Kal to defeat the DO?
That might not have worked out all that well, but by then Moiraine wouldn't have been able to stop it anymore.

greatwolf
03-30-2012, 08:20 AM
What if the captured Lanfear and Rand had gotten together again, and then decided to use the Choedan Kal to defeat the DO?
That might not have worked out all that well, but by then Moiraine wouldn't have been able to stop it anymore.

But what if it worked? If Rand can defeat the DO without the CK, then having it only makes life easier. But getting rid of the forsaken would have been a lot easier with Lanfear's help.

As things are, Rand might still get together with Cyndane and then what would have been the point of Moiraine's sacrifice?

GonzoTheGreat
03-30-2012, 08:44 AM
But what if it worked?
Moiraine saw a lot of potential outcomes for what she could try on the docks. In none of those cases was the outcome good, except for some cases where she tried what she actually did do.
So why should she have chosen an approach that was almost guaranteed to produce worse effects, merely on the off chance that the predictions were wrong and it would turn out right after all?

greatwolf
03-30-2012, 09:09 AM
Moiraine saw a lot of potential outcomes for what she could try on the docks. In none of those cases was the outcome good, except for some cases where she tried what she actually did do.
So why should she have chosen an approach that was almost guaranteed to produce worse effects, merely on the off chance that the predictions were wrong and it would turn out right after all?

Moiraine chose the option where she does not know what happens in the world after. An option for ignorance not because she knew it was good. Maybe she didn't see any Lanfear in this future but how can she when we only have Cyndane now? In any case, you can't say its a better outcome just the outcome without Lanfear but with Cyndane. Pah.

Enigma
03-31-2012, 10:01 AM
Are you saying that Moiraine when presented with a number of choices that went something like

1 The hope of the world dead
2 The hope of the world working for the Dark One
3 The hope of the world saved to fight another day and a major asset of the dark one removed from the game for a time and Moiraine not sure what happens after that.

Should have gone for option 1 or 2? It seems clear from Moiriane that from what she had seen all the options had come down to a narrow number of options and Moiraine picked the one that while not ideal at least allowed the forces of the light to survive the day.

greatwolf
03-31-2012, 05:06 PM
Should have gone for option 1 or 2?.

You'll have to reread the post I'm afraid, because its not about the first two options but how many if all subsets of option three Moiraine saw. Option three led to the docks, but how many variants did Moiraine see after the docks and specifically after clawing away the terangreal. I think its certain she saw more than one, since she said something to that effect in her letter to Thom.

But did she see all possible options the time she clawed away the bracelet or did she see only the likely options (based on her likely choices) from there? Its quite possible the pattern wanted a female forsaken captured at this point and also Lanfear out of the way. If Moiraine had been able to conceive it, perhaps Lanfear would have been singing a different song now.

If Rand rescues Cyndane at the LB and she proves to be vital to his success at TG, then what really did Moiraine achieve here?

Seth Baker
03-31-2012, 08:28 PM
Perhaps it was necessary for Lanfear to die and be transmigrated into Cyndane in order for her to have the mindset we're dealing with? She probably wouldn't have fallen as easily into Moridin's hands if she'd never died and been transmigrated. You don't see Moridin with Demandred's cour'souvra

greatwolf
03-31-2012, 09:12 PM
Perhaps it was necessary for Lanfear to die and be transmigrated into Cyndane in order for her to have the mindset we're dealing with? She probably wouldn't have fallen as easily into Moridin's hands if she'd never died and been transmigrated. You don't see Moridin with Demandred's cour'souvra

But consider the alternative - A captured Lanfear could very well turn in captivity. The same choice she gave asmodean comes to her -you've been aiding the DR now you better toss in everything and hope for the best or else...

I think quite a few of the forsaken would have wanted to get their hands on her by that time. And how would she make them believe she was captured by a "primitive" like Moiraine.

Killing her might have been less satisfactory on the long run though the rings might not show Moiraine that. The DO would probably bring her back even if she's mindtrapped. But Moiraine would have remained by Rand's side and a lot might have happened differently.

1. Alanna's bond might never have happened (or Moiraine could have dealt with it - pass it to Elayne) and Rand's rabid distrust of AS might not have happened. That means ashaman and AS may have been working together long before now.

2. Dumai wells might have been avoided entirely. Again better relations with AS. And Rand could have supported the SAS to remove Elaida.

Seth Baker
03-31-2012, 10:48 PM
You're assuming that those things didn't need to happen; that the changes to Rand's personality were not necessary, or that the changes to Lanfear's personality by going through life as Cyndane weren't what made it possible for Rand to win in the first place.

I think that's a completely unwarranted assumption.

GonzoTheGreat
04-01-2012, 05:22 AM
But consider the alternative - A captured Lanfear could very well turn in captivity.
Was a captured Lanfear a possibility at all?

So far, all you've presented in favor of that is the assertion that it may maybe not have been entirely impossible.
That's a bit dodgy when there is actually a lot of evidence (which Moiraine saw during her passage through the rings) that a failed attempt would lead to disaster, and that every time that she made (would make, whatever the past future tense of "to make" is) the attempt failed.

Enigma
04-01-2012, 10:21 AM
I think we can all agree that Moiraine would have chosen the option she felt was the best for the world. Now we don't know for certain that she saw every single possible outcome but we know that Lanfear was in battle mode and she the only playing with Rand because she wanted him to suffer and she felt she has the upper hand.

If Moiraine or anyone else presented as a read threat Lanfear would have struck to kill and even with an angreal Moiraine is toast in a direct one power confontation.

For those who say she was able to take out Be'lal she had the element of surprise. He thought that she was no threat what so ever. Lanfear may not like AS but she had proved to be a skilled enough duelest with the power not to take anything for granted especially while Rand who is a formidable opponent in his own right was trying to capture her.

Seth Baker
04-01-2012, 11:13 AM
Was a captured Lanfear a possibility at all?

So far, all you've presented in favor of that is the assertion that it may maybe not have been entirely impossible.
That's a bit dodgy when there is actually a lot of evidence (which Moiraine saw during her passage through the rings) that a failed attempt would lead to disaster, and that every time that she made (would make, whatever the past future tense of "to make" is) the attempt failed.

I know I disagree with you in a lot of other threads, but man I'm with you on this one.

THIS. THIS.

greatwolf
04-01-2012, 02:37 PM
I think we can all agree that Moiraine would have chosen the option she felt was the best for the world. Now we don't know for certain that she saw every single possible outcome but we know that Lanfear was in battle mode...

Yeah, but Moiraine has more than surprise and battle skill on her side. She has foreknowledge of these events. But her thoughts when she got to the wagon bed did not reveal any certainity that events would proceed in in definite direction. So its not likely she saw all futures.

Which futures did she see? Those based on her fears? or on her confidence? Most likely not all. Not by along shot.

GonzoTheGreat
04-02-2012, 04:35 AM
Yeah, but Moiraine has more than surprise and battle skill on her side. She has foreknowledge of these events. But her thoughts when she got to the wagon bed did not reveal any certainity that events would proceed in in definite direction. So its not likely she saw all futures.
There is another option, which actually has support from the books.
We know that many "individual futures" are forgotten. The Wise Ones tell us (and Moiraine, I think) so. So it is possible that Moiraine did see all of them, but only remembered a finite number.

Dajoran
04-02-2012, 06:14 AM
I'll just leave this here...


The first test, the first winnowing, before any training even, was to step through one of those three rings. Which one did not matter, or perhaps the choice was a matter of fate. That step seemingly took her through her life again and again, her future spread out before her, all of the possible futures based on every decision she might make for the rest of her life. Death was possible in those, too; some women could not face the future any more than others could face the past. All possible futures were too many for a mind to retain, of course. They jumbled together and faded away for the most part, but a woman gained a sense of things that would happen in her life, that must happen, that might happen. Usually even that was hidden until the moment was on her. Not always, though. Moiraine had been through those rings.

greatwolf
04-02-2012, 12:04 PM
I'll just leave this here...

So which side are you on?

Ok. Lets play it like this. Moiraine's letter says she does not know what happens after her departure except what she wrote in Thom's letter. She can't lie. Two, Therava and the others shaido WOs have been through the rings yet they led the shaido to disaster at dumai wells.

How come if they knew the future or even had a sense of it? Not just one WO in error, but several following sevanna to disaster. I don't think the rings of rhuiden (RoR for short) confer anything like omniscience. And I've posted Moiraine's pov at the time of the attack which nothing of certainity about the outcome.

Like I said earlier, making a choice to confront Lanfear might have three general results: lose (lanfear kills Rand) draw(Lanfear escapes with Rand) and win. Of the last outcome, how many different ways can it come about? Specifically, how many ways can it occur from the point when she clawed away the bracelet?

Now if the RoR show Moiraine all three outcomes, it has satisfied "all possible futures" but from what standpoint? Take a chess analogy here. How many possible moves at the opening (1st move)? And how many possible moves at 5th move? You'll agree these are not the same possibilities we're talking about. The latter should be a subset of the former, and easier to remember (or figure out).

So the outcomes Moiraine saw were from when she entered the waste with Rand. She already knew then Lanfear was stalking Rand. And that she had been LTT's lover in the aol. From that point to the docks at cairhien, much has happened, time has passed and some of what she saw would be fulfilled. How much does she remember of the rest? But far more importantly, how much did she see that she did not know what occured after?

GonzoTheGreat
04-02-2012, 12:26 PM
For Therava and the others, the Car'a'carn was no more than a distant possibility. Until he was suddenly there, basically unexpected, though they had had a few months warning.

For Moiraine, when she went through those rings, the Dragon Reborn was not merely someone she knew could show up; it was someone she knew quite well already, and so he was a central part of her future.

Plus, I suspect that those rings are something like balefire: if you think too hard on them, then the Pattern unravels and you have to start all over.

Dajoran
04-03-2012, 06:33 AM
So which side are you on?

Ummm... Robert Jordan's?

Where you say:

So its not likely she saw all futures

Moraine did see all possible futures, 'all of the possible futures based on every decision she might make for the rest of her life. '

The rest can be understood from reading Moiraines POV and letters.

greatwolf
04-03-2012, 07:45 AM
Moraine did see all possible futures, 'all of the possible futures based on every decision she might make for the rest of her life. '

The rest can be understood from reading Moiraines POV and letters.

I don't know, then why did she say (and she can't lie) she does not know what happens after? And why was she so uncertain. RJ kept telling us that the characters can be wrong and often are. So I guess I should ask how do you know you've seen every possible future in order to make that claim?

GonzoTheGreat
04-03-2012, 08:32 AM
I don't know, then why did she say (and she can't lie) she does not know what happens after? And why was she so uncertain. RJ kept telling us that the characters can be wrong and often are. So I guess I should ask how do you know you've seen every possible future in order to make that claim?
She had seen all of her own futures, not just all possible futures of everything.

And she did not know which of those futures would come true, and which wouldn't.

To give an indication of what she had and hadn't remembered, there's her own letter to Rand, of which I will repost part here, with my own highlighting:
Since the first day I reached Rhuidean, I have known – it need not trouble you how, some secrets belong to others, and I will not betray them – that a day would come in Cairhien when news would arrive of Morgase. I did not know what that would be – if what we heard is true, the Light have mercy on her soul; she was willful and stubborn, with the temper of a lioness at times, but for all that a true, good and gracious queen – but each time that news led to the docks on the following day. There were three branches from the docks, but if you are reading this, I am gone, and so is Lanfear...
...
The other two paths were much worse. Down one, Lanfear killed you. Down the other, she carried you away, and when next we saw you, you called yourself Lews Therin Telamon and were her devoted lover.
So she had remembered that some news regarding Morgase would signal this showdown, but she had not remembered what that news would be. She apparently had no clue at all that Morgase wasn't dead, though she was not convinced that the news was wholly true either. Which latter makes sense, considering how wild some of the rumours can get there.

Dajoran
04-03-2012, 08:46 AM
I don't know, then why did she say (and she can't lie) she does not know what happens after? And why was she so uncertain.

Again.

All possible futures were too many for a mind to retain, of course. They jumbled together and faded away for the most part, but a woman gained a sense of things that would happen in her life, that must happen, that might happen. Usually even that was hidden until the moment was on her. Not always, though. Moiraine had been through those rings.

She states that what she learned from the rings fades. And she is left with a sense; a sense is not knowing.



RJ kept telling us that the characters can be wrong and often are. So I guess I should ask how do you know you've seen every possible future in order to make that claim?

The fact that she cannot recall the futures themselves is not evidence towards her understanding whether or not she seen every possible one. By any logical sense, that has no bearing on the actual experience of the Rings.

If at one point she realised that she had seen every possible branch of her life - she would retain the knowledge of the experience of having seen it, just not those futures that she had seen.

greatwolf
04-06-2012, 03:54 PM
The fact that she cannot recall the futures themselves is not evidence towards her understanding whether or not she seen every possible one. By any logical sense, that has no bearing on the actual experience of the Rings.

If at one point she realised that she had seen every possible branch of her life - she would retain the knowledge of the experience of having seen it, just not those futures that she had seen.

You're avoiding the question. If I asked how do you when you've reached your destination, you'll be able to answer precisely only if you know the destination beforehand. But in this case, how does anyone know he/she has seen all possible futures (not the past) unless you know how many futures there are.

Thinking you might know can hardly be equated with actual knowledge. Its common for students to leave an exam hall with a "sense" of "knowing" that is often wrong. Moiraine knew there were gaps in her knowledge. She did not even mention a sense of knowing or having forgotten anything. Just ignorance and uncertainty.

Is the number of possible futures finite? If it stretches to infinity, then women who go through the rings will remain there for life. Or at least for a pretty long time. Remember though, that when you spend even a day inside the rings, the world outside the rings will change, and some of the futures you've seen may change. And the same for the next day you spend, and the next...

I don't think things are quite so absolute as you think.

Res_Ipsa
04-06-2012, 08:40 PM
Perhaps it is my inner cynic, but I find it hard to go into the "what ifs" in fantasy because the author has already told us what happened, meaning nothing else could have happened.

Lost One
12-17-2012, 12:52 PM
There are two basic arguments posed here:

1. Did Moraine consider other options or not, ie Lanfear captured?
2. Did Moraine have the time to do anything but what she did?

For #1, While Moraine, in her letter, listed the three paths she saw, there is nothing to say therre were not more. Remember she saw three paths leading from the docks, not options to take at the while at the docks. So the problem facing her is to make sure that Lanfear does not kill Rand or capture Rand. ALL else must give way to that. One thing that has not been noted is (and IMO is very likely) is she was captured, she still would have turned Rand. Damsel in distress, helpless before everyone else.. yeah, she could have nade use of it, as well as her use of TAR. Additionally, Moraine had months to consider this. It was the best plan with the least risk.

#2. While we are considering things like Lanfear's strength, Moraine's strength, window of opportunity, what is not being considered is that Moraine is not really up to snuff. She has just been bitch slapped hard by Lanfear, who I think was second in strength after Ishmael. She is woozey, she is barely steady enough to move without disturbing the wagon. She still knows she might fail. She cannot take that chance.

What has not been considered, but must be taken into account (which I think Moraine did what she did) is that No plan survives contact with the enemy. This Axiom is one biggest in military thinking, and is even brought up by various generals in the book..Bryne, Iturade, Cauthon.

Rand was incapable of doing anything and was about to be killed. Moraine, being woozey, had no time for finesse. I do not believe that she would have had time to spin saidar. She had to make a physical attack that had the least likelyhood of failure.

Enigma
12-19-2012, 05:52 PM
There are two basic arguments posed here:

1. Did Moraine consider other options or not, ie Lanfear captured?
2. Did Moraine have the time to do anything but what she did?

If Moraine could see every possible future and remember it all 100% she may have had a chance to come up with the perfect plan to take Lanfear out. Unfortunatly that's not how the rings work, she would only be left with vague impressions. To take out Lanfear and not risk Rand she would have had to have the prefect plan and without total recall and no plan surviving contact with the enemy she had no chance.


Secondly Moiraine was effective against Aginor to an extend and Be'lal but just a few things to remember. Aginor is not 100% he was trapped close to the bore and it wore down his body and we have seen that a physically exhaused channeler is not as strong or effective as they usually are. And she lost even with her angreal.

Against Be'lal she had the element of surprise and he could not see her weave. Lanfear has shown us that you can with the proper training fight a channeler of the opposite gender but it seems to me that its bound to be easier to fight your own sex.

Without the ability to invert her weaves as she is channeling Lanfear would see everything Moiraine was doing and either counter it or strike faster.

If Rand was going all out on the attack the story might have been different. Rand & angreal full out trying to kill her would probably have taken up all of Lanfear's channeling resourses unless her angreal was a lot stronger. In that circumstances Moiraine may have been able to tip the balance.

One last thing, Lanfear may not be the most cooperative of prisoners. Asmodean and Moggy are wimps. Compare their captivity to that of Semirhage. She was hardly forthcoming with info even after Caddy's spanking.