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pops taer
08-21-2008, 11:55 AM
I didn't want to drag all the way through the Russia invades Georgia thread so I'm starting one over.

Mainly I want to know how you feel about Russia no beginning to reinstitute itself into former "colonies?" I'm scared to think of that nation now beginning to take back those nations that declared their independence after the initial fall. I'm wondering how concerned folk in Estonia, Latvia, Romania, etc are? I'd be danged concerned. I'm concerned enough with our own problems but throw in that mess and I'm really worried. I'll be reading with interest!!

Davian93
08-21-2008, 12:03 PM
Its simply regression towards the historic norm. Sucks if you're an Eastern European country but there's very little we can do about a reborn Russia asserting its regional influence once again.

GonzoTheGreat
08-21-2008, 12:10 PM
Well, you could start arming the Mujahedeen once again. It worked in Afganistan, remember?

Matoyak
08-21-2008, 12:12 PM
Well, you could start arming the Mujahedeen once again. It worked in Afganistan, remember? LOL!

...

Epic phail. :D

In a side-note, I was listening to Billy Joel's "We Didn't Start The Fire" when I opened this thread :D

EDIT: Also, no me gusta USSR...

Gilshalos Sedai
08-21-2008, 12:20 PM
Well, you could start arming the Mujahedeen once again. It worked in Afganistan, remember?


I'm such a geek... for about 30 seconds I wondered what the Fremen had to with this.

Gilshalos Sedai
08-21-2008, 12:25 PM
http://punditkitchen.com/2008/08/21/political-pictures-vladimir-putin-george-iraq-tantrum/

GonzoTheGreat
08-22-2008, 02:57 AM
I'm such a geek... for about 30 seconds I wondered what the Fremen had to with this.
Well, they are Zensunni. OBL is Sunni already. All he now has to do is pick up a Japanese self help book and add some Zen koans to his next video.

yks 6nnetu hing
08-22-2008, 05:25 AM
http://businessneweurope.eu/story1211

" "The most scary part is that Russia gave the South Ossetians passports and now they say they have come to defend their passport holders," says Andres Kasekamp, head of the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute. "It makes us uneasy as it could potentially be extended to us." "

That kind of sums it up.

Nothing to do really, but hold on tight and wait for Russia to shoot itself in the foot as it always does. Estonians have lived on that piece of land for 5000 years and we're not about to move now.

One thing that the "former soviet republics" know very well though is that Russia can bark and twist anything (and I mean anything) into an insult so it really doesn't matter how low you lay, if they want to invade, they will. Which is why you might as well speak up and try to form alliances before the fact.

Frenzy
08-22-2008, 09:12 AM
how many of the former soviet "colonies" are part of NATO now? If Russia invaded one of those, we'd have WW I all over again.

yks 6nnetu hing
08-22-2008, 09:48 AM
only 3 that were actually a part of USSR: the Baltics (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania)

and then a spattering of others from behind the iron curtain: Poland, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania

full list here:
http://www.nato.int/structur/countries.htm

Davian93
08-22-2008, 10:11 AM
Gut reaction: Do you really expect NATO to protect you? I could easily see a new version of appeasement to the Russian Bear due to the energy dependency W. Europe has with them.

Yuri33
08-22-2008, 10:41 AM
Western Europe wouldn't be alone, the US would sign on to that appeasement, no matter how much the president whined about it in public. Oil is a global commodity sold on the world market.

yks 6nnetu hing
08-22-2008, 10:54 AM
"Gut reaction: Do you really expect NATO to protect you? I could easily see a new version of appeasement to the Russian Bear due to the energy dependency W. Europe has with them."

nope. but Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine will probably stand up for each other (Finland for the Baltics, the Baltics for each other and Finland and Poland, Poland for the Baltics and Ukraine, Ukraine for Poland, domino effect). And if Finland happens to be in trouble, Scandinavia will probably get involved and once Scandinavia is in, the rest of Europe will probably follow. If Poland is in trouble, most central-eastern European countries (Czech rep., Hungary, Slovenia, Slovakia, Croatia, maybe even Greece etc.) might follow as domino-effect...

This whole thing has reminded everyone that EU actually has a branch called OSCE which can, if it wants to, be an alternatice to NATO. And so far it has taken more decisive action on this than NATO has :) meh, we'll just wait and see.

4Alethinos
08-22-2008, 12:02 PM
Any country that relies upon NATO is in for some very serious disappointment. NATO consists of the USA and no one else with any guts to do anything. Look at that last communique from the NATO meeting. It was just words from a quaking bunch of pansies.

yks, I really would be concerned about your beloved country. It is now at serious risk. Putin is the new Czar of Russia with just a different title. He hates the USA and so does much of Europe. Too bad for Europe. They have no armed forces worthy of the name. They have relied upon the USA for a military umbrella while they disarmed and spent their money on their own lives.

Russia can overwhelm a country of 5 million, but taking on the Ukraine might be a different proposition. Russia is the no 2 supplier of oil and gas in the world. They have Europe by the short hairs and the EU knows it. With oil at or about 120 dollars a barrel, they have lots of cash that they did not have when Reagan pounded sand up their bums. They are now the Russia of the late 19th century. They are driving for warm water ports on the Caspian and they will likely put pressure for the ports of the Baltics.

You people who live in Europe had better think of a place to hide or arm up. You are in for some serious hurt from the muslim immigration and birth rates on one side and Russian expansionism on the other.

yks is exactly right about Russian tactics. They gave passports to people in Ossetia and then used that as an excuse to invade Georgia because of abuses from Georgian troops. Beware of Trojan horses. They still work.

I predict the EU will do nothiing because they are politically and militarily impotent. You could get hundreds of thousands to protest our taking down a murderous dictator in Iraq but you will not find 5 people who will protest the invasion of a friendly democracy like Georgia.

Your lives are going to radically change in the next 10 years. I am sorry for you. I wish you all the best. I fear you will not get it, however.

yks 6nnetu hing
08-25-2008, 08:32 AM
Well, The Baltics have known this for the last 6-7 years, and they've cried "wolf" for most of that time. Only, no one has listened. Of course we know that we're on the frontier and probably the first ones to go overboard.

But, mark my words: Russia WILL fall on its face within the next 20-30 years and here's why.

It is no coincidence or nay-saying that Russia has been called Neo-Soviet recently. Yes, the 90's were an age of rampant scull-duggery and thuggish "business ethics" but it WAS a time of innovation, investments and privatization which at least theoretically allowed regular people to set up their own business and become prosperous. But then Putin came in power and immediately major businesses "magically" became the property of the state again (case in point: Yukos and Khodorkovski). These companies were either sold for parts and liquidated or added to the sluggish, corrupt and incredibly bureaucratic state system, thereby - as most logically thinking people can figure out - dramatically diminishing their (potential) profits and efficiency. The only thing that has kept the profits up has been the soaring prices for raw material.

And as for the raw material, it's true, Russia has huge amounts of it. BUT since taking over the private companies, the state has made next to no further investments in the infrastructure. Which, considering that there was literally nothing there on the Siberian gas fields during the Soviet times means that there is very little there now. So the stuff is there but Russia has no way of getting it. And since it has started monopolizing foreign companies at an ever more fast pace, foreign investors are thinking hard whether to pour any money in only to be thrown out on a technicality afterwards. Russians do amazing things with their bureaucracy.

The reason the Soviet Union collapsed was really very simple: it was bankrupt. For decades, the state had poured all its money into the military and heavy industry, completely ignoring the consumer industry and continuing with the agricultural "experiment" long after it had proven to be an utter folly. The situation has not improved much. The Russian agriculture never did pick up, the people have been flocking to the big towns leaving the countryside desolate. There are no consumer products (starting from clothes and ending with kitchenware) manufactured in russia on a large - or affordable - scale. This means that everything a person needs in their everyday life (except, of course, gas and oil) needs to be imported. How long do you think this is sustainable? The oil and gas ARE going to run out, even faster so if no further investments are made ASAP and there seems no indication of that happening. And then what? Russia will still be poor, much too large to administer efficiently and now also void of anything of value.

Plus, there's the demografic crisis. An average Russian man does not live to be 60. The natural increase has been negative since before the USSR collapsed (the main form of birth control is abortion) and anyone with an ounce of brains and enterpreneurial spirit has either left the country or joined the thugs.

And it is starting to show more and more in Russian everyday life. So, in order to deflect critizism, Putvedev is concentrating on external enemies, brainwashing the poor gullible Russians and whipping up a flaming-red Stalinist history. The result? even more prescious oil-dollars spent on fruitless military moves when they could have been spent on improving the lives of the Russian people.

it's all very sad.

Davian93
08-25-2008, 08:39 AM
The only problem is they won't go out quietly...They'll almost certainly attempt some sort of military solution to solve this issues you've mentioned.

yks 6nnetu hing
08-25-2008, 09:40 AM
which is why it's all very sad.

really, the only thing that the rest of the world can do to speed things up is stop all trade with Russia. It will hurt them much more than it'll hurt us.

but then, if we do that, we condemn thousands, if not millions of people to starvation and still risk Russia pointing nukes at us and demanding food/territory/tribute... On the other hand, it might, just might, provoke a revolt in Russia... I really do wish all the best for Russians and I really do hope that at one point they too will have a functioning and prosperous society. Much the same way that I like almost all Americans I have had the opportunity to get to know but don't agree with most of the politics (neither domestic nor foreign) of USA and wish that the poor unenlightened Americans could see the bog of hypocricy their government spins :rolleyes: Which, i'm sure, can be said of EU as well but since I'm living here, I'm not going to.

It's all a world of realpolitik - a diplomacy of profit. In the grand plan, it is very rational and logical but people, regular people suffer as a conseqence. Not that ideological politics are any better, mind! meh. I'm just glad I'm not one of the decision makers right now.

The Immortal One
08-25-2008, 09:54 AM
The reason the Soviet Union collapsed was really very simple: it was bankrupt. For decades, the state had poured all its money into the military and heavy industry, completely ignoring the consumer industry and continuing with the agricultural "experiment" long after it had proven to be an utter folly.
Yeah, so here's a lesson for you: if you want to become a sucessful dictator the first thing to do is make sure your own country is (mostly) self-sufficient.

GonzoTheGreat
08-25-2008, 10:20 AM
I disagree about the reason that the USSR collapsed. The problem was not that it was bankrupt, after all, it owned all the banks, so it could have worked around that. The problem was that its system did nothing to encourage improving anything, so at best things stayed the same and often they got worse. Then Gorbachov tried to solve this by giving people the freedom to choose for themselves. This of course immediately got out of hand, when people started choosing for themselves.

But if it were true that a state would collapse when it went bankrupt, then North Korea would've disappeared long ago.

Russia is going back to what it has been since the time of the Mongol invasions: a paranoid state that wants to have buffer zones between itself and all potential enemies.

yks 6nnetu hing
08-25-2008, 10:41 AM
well, USSR had been buying the grain for the gold robbed from the Tzars and the Jews and it was running out (since they began in the 50's, a wonder it lasted that long, really)

What else would there have been? The economy was on the verge of a total collapse and since the Russian Spirit is quite like the Rapper Spirit (wear= show everything you own) where perceived prestige is EVERYTHING... and since in the western world certain values are seen as positive, the Russians thought they would show that they too have those values and then things got a bit out of hand.

like I said, sad.

John Snow
08-25-2008, 05:56 PM
so my one disagreement is with your title - it's not about reconstituting the USSR, it's about Russia behaving as it always has - and maybe Georgia doing the same.

Davian93
08-26-2008, 11:33 AM
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,410507,00.html

Russia Not Afraid of New Cold War


"Bring it on Willy!"

Davian93
08-26-2008, 02:30 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/26/russia.vote.georgia/index.html

Step 1: Recognize them as Independant Countries

Step 2: Annex them in the name of protecting them.

Step 3: Laugh at Impotent Western Powers.

Gilshalos Sedai
08-26-2008, 02:37 PM
Are these new entries in the Evil Overlord List?

Davian93
08-26-2008, 02:40 PM
Are these new entries in the Evil Overlord List?

Confused on what you mean...these are updates on the situation in Georgia that isn't news in the U.S. anymore as we already forgot that there were 2 Georgias....BTW did you SEE what Michelle Obama was wearing at the convention...OH MY GOD...

Gilshalos Sedai
08-26-2008, 02:50 PM
I was making a joke as to your list. You made them sound like entries in the Evil Overlord List (http://www.eviloverlord.com/lists/overlord.html).

Purple Dragon
08-26-2008, 03:37 PM
Nothing to do really, but hold on tight and wait for Russia to shoot itself in the foot as it always does. Estonians have lived on that piece of land for 5000 years and we're not about to move now.


teeheehee... YKS!!!

silly Yks... didn't you already move? like... earlier this year? or was it last year? something like that? ~whistles innocently~

yks 6nnetu hing
08-27-2008, 07:33 AM
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=304298011180002

This bit is the best:

With just twice as many people, the U.S. economy is 29 times as large as Russia's. There isn't an area of technology we're not ahead in. Russia will spend about $31 billion this year on defense, and has planned a $189 billion, 5-year expansion. Even so, that's about what the U.S. spends in five months.

Gilshalos Sedai
08-27-2008, 08:15 AM
Yeah, but taking over its former sattelites will be one way to save its hollow economy, at least in the short run.

4Alethinos
08-28-2008, 11:44 AM
This whole exercise has also demonstrated the total uselessness of NATO. The Euros believe that peace is guaranteed by the UN and that the US is the largest danger to peace. Useful fictions for a false sense of self-worth. The Euros have spent almost nothing on defence. They are a bunch of little kittens. Not even a real bite ini a carload.

They denigrate the one country that has truly kept them safe in their beds and I could wish them ill for it, but I do not. They will get it no matter what I wish.

Somehow, the reality of force being the tool of international diplomacy has become lost on the Euros. That force is a combination of military and economic power. There is nothing else. HIstory is replete with the lessons that everyone thinks can be avoided today. Good luck with that. In fact, you had better get some ice for that. Europe is dependent upon Russia for Natural Gas. They are dependent for oil outside their borders. The Euros have the sense to go nuclear for electricity. I would wish that the fools in this country would stop roadblocking the technologies that will reduce our gas and oil dependency. I have no hope for the Dems ever seeing what is real and true. I mention them because they are in charge right now.

Crispin's Crispian
08-28-2008, 12:14 PM
As usual, you are concise and stick to the point, 4A....


Anyway, I thought this was interesting:

Asian alliance snubs Russian plea for support (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080828/ap_on_re_eu/georgia)

pops taer
08-29-2008, 01:45 PM
Only teasing. I did get some info I was looking for. I find myself reading things on the net and saying, "Huh, what did he say?" So I asked for input and appreciate it. I find the whole thing, not your offers, strange and scary. Russia will do what it wants one way or another, no matter who/whom it hurts. Strangely so do all the other powers of the world down through history, including the U. S. of A.

yks, strangely enough I don't agree with the politics of this nation but don't have to power alone to change them, no matter whether I go vote or not. Which I do.

Anyhooooo, thanks folks for pretty much staying on topic and offering me some good data!!!

yks 6nnetu hing
09-01-2008, 08:11 AM
yks, strangely enough I don't agree with the politics of this nation but don't have to power alone to change them, no matter whether I go vote or not. Which I do.



I know pops, and I know a lot of people feel that way, everywhere.

This is a blog-entry by Edward Lucas, the author of a recent book "The New Cold War". He's been more and more vocal about the menace of Russia so while he was one of the few tolling the bells, I used to read his stuff often. I do think he goes a little too far in this one though:
http://edwardlucas.blogspot.com/2008/08/shchto-delat-what-to-do.html


I know I've mentioned stopping the humanitarian aid to Russia, or for that matter, stopping trading food to Russia (think how many Africans we could feed instead...) but when actually faced with the opportunity/possibility from other people, I am very reluctant to even consider this. What kind of civilization is this that determinedly starves a nation for their politial views? It's no better than what Stalin did to Ukraine...

and the "regular Russians" would be the ones to suffer, not the morons who have caused this whole mess.

there are some good ideas there too, though, such as counter-propaganda. Would you believe it, that this year, a schoolbook came out in Russia where Stalin's Gulag project is described (paraphrasing here) as "administrative genius" and "necessary for the modernization of the country"? er... administrative genius, alright, of the mass murdering kind. In that same book, little russian children are taught that Ukraine, Poland, the Baltics etc. were taken into the Soviet Union "because they used to be a part of the Russian Empire before 1917"!

It's a whole new can of worms, one that is thoroughly sauced with nationalist propaganda mixed together from anything at all - the old Tzars, the Orthodox religion, the soviet nostalgia, even the Third Rome meme.

The Third reich in Russia comes through Byzantium - Russian tzar (forget which one) married the last princess of the Byzantine empire and when the Byzantium fell to the Moslems, Russia claims to be a successor of Rome (Roman empire was split into Byzantium and Rome, Byzantine empire lasted about 1000 years longer than the roman empire, the capital was Konstantinople, nowadays known as Istanbul)

So a rather different path of the Third Rome but I believe everyone can see the parallel with (Nazi-)Germany, yes? and this is fed to the little gullible Russians on the state-controlled media outlets.Constantly.

pops taer
09-03-2008, 06:16 PM
Certainly worries me that the Russian 'upper crust' has every intention of taking over once again!! I certainly hope that none of our group is involved by the family being brought under or behind that "curtain" again.