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Flinn Sedai
05-08-2012, 03:18 PM
My friend was trying to come up with a timeline on the taint effects. Now, I'm not 100% sure on how he was planning to do it, but I provided him with the information he asked for. By the time we got it, though, he had forgotten how he was planning to do it. I figured if any group of people would be able to come up with a way to do it...

Anyways, here's the information he asked for, including some basic calculations. So, we're going to find how many Sparkers there are.

We're starting off with a population of 100,000 people. We know that in Randland, 1% of people could channel, in some sense (either Sparkers or Learners). Based on Taim's report in LoC, we have a Sparker-Learner ratio of 5-444 or 4-444, which is Narishma, Flinn, Rand, Logain, and Taim (if you think he's from the Third Age). From here on, calculations with Taim from AoL will be in parenthesis. Of those, 1/4 survive the crisis of channeling for the first time.

Population - 100,000
Potential Channelers - 1,000
Sparkers - 11 (9)
Survivors - 2.75 (2.25)

Now, taking that information, he wanted to compare it to Shara's execution policy. We know that male channelers usually start channeling between 16-26. Going on a normal distribution, we can assume covers 95% of channelers, which means 2 standard distributions. That puts the mean age at 21, with a standard deviation of 2.5 years.

Typical age range: 16-26
Mean age: 21
Standard Deviation: 2.5

Using that information, we could estimate the rate of male channelers that goes on in Shara, where they execute at 21. For our purposes, we're going with a population of 1,000,000 total in Shara (hard to tell the actual population). That means that we can expect that 13.75 (11.25) are executed before they manifest. That leaves 13.75 (11.25) that are executed after they have begun to channel. They are broken down by how long they have been channeling, as follows.

Total Population: 1,000,000
Total Sparkers: 27.5 (22.5)
Survive <2.5 years: 9.4 (7.7)
Survive 2.5-5 years: 3.74 (3)
Survive >5 years: 0.6 (0.5)

This was about as far as we got. Based on that, we figured that that those who had channeled for less than 2.5 years might go unnoticed, and might not actually need to be executed before they turned 21.

I kind of threw these all together while I wasn't paying much attention, so I assume I have a few things wrong. Anything that people could correct me on, or anything that people can add to this? Specifically, using the information we have, can anybody help figure out how to determine the typical progression of taint effects?

Zombie Sammael
05-08-2012, 03:32 PM
Paging The Unreasoner...

WinespringBrother
05-08-2012, 03:35 PM
Flinn was a learner, not a sparker. We also have the name of another sparker, Owyn, who may be included in the below statistic.

For more data/statistics, you can refer to the conversation between Elaida and Alviarin about the # of official vs unofficial gentled male channelers (IIRC it was 24 vs 2000).

Flinn Sedai
05-08-2012, 03:45 PM
Flinn was a learner, not a sparker. We also have the name of another sparker, Owyn, who may be included in the below statistic.

For more data/statistics, you can refer to the conversation between Elaida and Alviarin about the # of official vs unofficial gentled male channelers (IIRC it was 24 vs 2000).

Good call. For some reason, when I had been remembering the first scene at the Farm, I thought he had said Flinn had the Spark. Just re-read and I was totally wrong.

Also, I'm intentionally not including gentled/dead, because we don't know how many of each could have died on either side. By focusing on just those whom they have found by going out and testing, we get a solid sample. We can't include those who haven't been checked, on either side.

That said, if we count Owyn and take out Flinn, we've got the same number. Also, the percentages that you mentioned are very similar to what we get from the BT.

24/2000 = 1.2%
5/444 = 1.1%

Do you remember where the discussion was? I assume somewhere around Book 8 or 9? I hadn't for the life of me been able to find an in-book discussion on this directly. We tried indirect approximation using sul'dam and damane, except that we don't have any actual numbers on them.

yks 6nnetu hing
05-09-2012, 05:17 AM
interesting, but if I remember correctly, futile. I seem to remember a comment by... someone... that the taint affects people at different rates. Some go raving stark mad within the year, others hold out for 15 years. I think there was a comment of awe about how long Taim (supposedly) had made it without going mad.

According to this bit within the Portal Stone, even Rand's rate of deterioration isn't anything solid, meaning that the rate taint affects people may not have a direct link to the particular person (???):


TITLE: Great Hunt
CHAPTER: 37 - What Might Be
He was a soldier. He was a shepherd. He was a beggar, and a king. He was farmer, gleeman, sailor, carpenter. He was born, lived, and died an Aiel. He died mad, he died rotting, he died of sickness, accident, age. He was executed, and multitudes cheered his death. He proclaimed himself the Dragon Reborn and flung his banner across the sky; he ran from the Power and hid; he lived and died never knowing. He held off the madness and the sickness for years; he succumbed between two winters. Sometimes Moiraine came and took him away from the Two Rivers, alone or with those of his friends who had survived Winternight; sometimes she did not. Sometimes other Aes Sedai came for him. Sometimes the Red Ajah. Egwene married him; Egwene, stern-faced in the stole of the Amyrlin Seat, led the Aes Sedai who gentled him; Egwene, with tears in her eyes, plunged a dagger into his heart, and he thanked her as he died. He loved other women, married other women. Elayne, and Min, and a fair-haired farmer's daughter met on the road to Caemlyn, and women he had never seen before he lived those lives. A hundred lives. More. So many he could not count them. And at the end of every life, as he lay dying, as he drew his final breath, a voice whispered in his ear. I have won again, Lews Therin.

GonzoTheGreat
05-09-2012, 06:04 AM
Torval shrugged, too casually. "Fifty-one, all told. Thirteen burned out, and twenty-eight dead where they stood. The rest... The M’Hael, he adds something to their wine, and they do not wake." Abruptly his tone turned malicious. "It can come suddenly, at any time. One man began screaming that spiders were crawling beneath his skin on his second day." He smiled viciously at Narishma and Hopwil, and nearly so at Rand, but it was to the other two he addressed himself, swinging his head between them. "You see? Not to worry if you slide into madness. You’ll not hurt yourselves or a soul. You go to sleep... forever. Kinder than gentling, even if we knew how. Kinder than leaving you insane andcut off, yes?" Narishma stared back, taut as a harp-string, his mug forgotten in his hand. Hopwil was once more frowning at something only he could see.
Now, I've never really trusted spiders, and this is the kind of thing they might do, so perhaps that fellow wasn't mad after all. But if it was the madness as a result of the Taint, then it came within 48 hours of starting to learn how to touch the OP.

Furthermore, we know that the Taint is sort of comparable to (random) Compulsion, and we also know that resistance to Compulsion varies between people and depends on circumstances. So it could very well be that resistance to the Taint is similarly dependent on a whole bunch of factors, not all of which we're even aware of.

Flinn Sedai
05-09-2012, 06:06 AM
interesting, but if I remember correctly, futile. I seem to remember a comment by... someone... that the taint affects people at different rates. Some go raving stark mad within the year, others hold out for 15 years. I think there was a comment of awe about how long Taim (supposedly) had made it without going mad.

According to this bit within the Portal Stone, even Rand's rate of deterioration isn't anything solid, meaning that the rate taint affects people may not have a direct link to the particular person (???):

This isn't about extrapolating from the general to the specific. This is just about developing a statistic model to map it.

Davian93
05-09-2012, 07:45 AM
This isn't about extrapolating from the general to the specific. This is just about developing a statistic model to map it.

Which is probably impossible given that there are so many variables on the how and why people succumb to it.

Boli
05-09-2012, 08:49 AM
Males in Shara who manfest earlier are killed (pretty sure that is correct from the "world of the wheel of time" book).

I don't think it is possible to predict the taint progression it could all depends on willpower however we can work out channeling populations to some degree.

In the Age of Legends it was something like 2-3% of the population could channel or be taught to channel, (an RJ quote... somewhere); this ability has slowly been removed out of the gene pool; more-so since the Hundred Years War. Before Hawkwind Aes Sedai were respected acted as governors and even Queens; and most likely bred and had children who could channel themselves.

Currently in the Westlands the ratio is 1% (an RJ quote... somewhere) but this is further reduced by the fact less people are willing to see if they have the potential to learn (afraid of Aes Sedai); and often die or become wilders without realising it (if they have the spark and no-one is around to teach them due to not being many Aes Sedai out of the tower).

Then you have the Sea Folk and Aiel – their channellers are respected, and sometimes marry and have children; plus girls with the spark rarely die. They will not test everyone however if they can channel only if they enter the Windfinder or Wise One profession.

The Seachan however find *every* girl who can channel or could be taught to channel; they do not use the ones who could be taught to channel however only the small percentage of those with the spark. Those with the spark will not breed; it is unclear if Sul'Dam marry and have children.

In Shara however once a girl has the spark she and all her descendants are sequestered in “camps”; it is unclear if those without the spark are taught as well. *all* males within these camps are killed on their 21st birthday or before if they begin to manifest earlier but they are used as “breed animals” before then.

Males with the spark in the other countries once they manifest either kill themselves or are killed; those who can learn are unfound.


In the Westland Aes Sedai do not breed; so if they pass to be Aes Sedai their ability, talent and strength is removed from the gene pool; men are killed with the spark also... and it wouldn’t surprise me their children are killed as well.

Wilders have a 25% success rate to survive if they manifest so every generation the number of wilders will diminish as well. The *only* way channeling can be passed on in the westland is:

* the 25% of surviving wilders
* Women who failed to be Aes Sedai due to strength / lack of resolve.
* Latent ability to learn in either men / women.

Looking at the numbers you can see the decrease in channelers in the westland – there are perhaps 1,000 Aes Sedai and close to 2,000 Kin. BUT there are 700,000 – 1,000,000 citizens in Tar Valan alone (an RJ quote not a guess). So all the Kin / Aes Sedai put together is 0.6% of the women in the size of a single city! This doesn't even factor in Aes Sedai and Kin live a lot longer than the normal lifespan.

At a guess the White Tower only catches 1 in a 100 potential Channellers meaning: 3 Aes Sedai / Kin for every 100,000 of the population; and those with the spark will have a MUCH higher percentage of these than is actual as they will either be shipped off to the tower when they manifest or are found being wilders and go to the tower afterwards.

Within the Aiel and Sea Folk the girls with the spark are caught and will marry / have children occasionally so they will have a greater % of channellers; but not by much... it depends on the percentage of those with the spark to those who can learn.

In all three cases whilst the general gene pool of channelling ability will decrease there is still a significant pool of potential channellers which is not tapped.

The Seachan however test for channelling ability continually meaning they do not have the pool of potential channellers but access to all of them. HOWEVER because of the fact Damne do not breed and they kill the men with the spark the % of channellers will decrease gradually over time. If Sul'damn do not breed either this % of the population will rapidly decrease as the genetic pool of potential channellers depend entirely on men without the spark but potential to learn.

Shara however is a massive exception. Continually siphoning off all the women “sparkers” into camps over 3,000 years breeding with all male children you are actually concentrating all the channelling ability into one interbreeding community. In these communities 25-50% being able to channel is entirely possible; and they are continually supplied with fresh “blood” as sparkers are found outside its walls. Unlike the rest of the world the males breed so you do not have the slow decline.

In fact due to this system you slowly reduce the sparking males outside the community but increase them within. If Shara have/had a system to check if girls can channel like seachan within these 3,000 years it is entirely possible they have breed out the ability to channel in the “normal” population but increased it significantly in the walled communities.


If we were to find out :

- Populations
- % chance a channeller is a "sparker"
- % chance a girl will try to learn to be a WO/WF/AS e.g. go to the tower.
- Birth rate of population(s)
- Birth rate of known channeler communities (Wise Ones / Wind Finders / Aes Sedai / Sharra Girls / Sul'damn / Kin).

Since we know channeling is genetic if we knew how many genetic markers are needed for channeling. (e.g. if it is one gene and recessive it should simple to calculate).

And if Sharra has or continues to search for girls with the potential to learn.

If we knew all of these numbers we could work out statistics of channeling per population head and how the last 3,000 years have shaped these statistics.

Flinn Sedai
05-09-2012, 09:51 AM
Males in Shara who manfest earlier are killed (pretty sure that is correct from the "world of the wheel of time" book).

Yep. That was what I used in my calculations. :)


In the Age of Legends it was something like 2-3% of the population could channel or be taught to channel, (an RJ quote... somewhere); this ability has slowly been removed out of the gene pool; more-so since the Hundred Years War. Before Hawkwind Aes Sedai were respected acted as governors and even Queens; and most likely bred and had children who could channel themselves.

Currently in the Westlands the ratio is 1% (an RJ quote... somewhere) but this is further reduced by the fact less people are willing to see if they have the potential to learn (afraid of Aes Sedai); and often die or become wilders without realising it (if they have the spark and no-one is around to teach them due to not being many Aes Sedai out of the tower).

We're finding the ratio of Learners-Sparkers. That means that it doesn't matter how many actually learn. Just how many can learn. That number is 1% (from the interview, as you pointed out). That's why I used it.

The Seachan however find *every* girl who can channel or could be taught to channel; they do not use the ones who could be taught to channel however only the small percentage of those with the spark. Those with the spark will not breed; it is unclear if Sul'Dam marry and have children.

Yeah. Damane and Sul'dam would have been fantastic to determine the ratio of Sparkers-Learners, but we weren't able to find any actual numbers on them. Heh, we spent hours scrambling for that information, before deciding it didn't exist (please prove me wrong :D).

Looking at the numbers you can see the decrease in channelers in the westland – there are perhaps 1,000 Aes Sedai and close to 2,000 Kin. BUT there are 700,000 – 1,000,000 citizens in Tar Valan alone (an RJ quote not a guess). So all the Kin / Aes Sedai put together is 0.6% of the women in the size of a single city! This doesn't even factor in Aes Sedai and Kin live a lot longer than the normal lifespan.

Umm... Tar Valon's population is 500,000, and it is the largest city by a wide margin. Caemlyn and Tear (some of the biggest cities) are around 300,000. Also, Aes Sedai and Kin together, are about 2600-2700.

If we were to find out :

- Populations
- % chance a channeller is a "sparker"
- % chance a girl will try to learn to be a WO/WF/AS e.g. go to the tower.
- Birth rate of population(s)
- Birth rate of known channeler communities (Wise Ones / Wind Finders / Aes Sedai / Sharra Girls / Sul'damn / Kin).

I think I don't understand. First, to find the % chance a channeler is a Sparker, I used the BT (the only semi-reliable numbers we have, which gives us either 4-444 or 5-444, or between 0.9% and 1.1%.

Why would we need to know the odds that one trains to channel?

The latter two could be used for indirectly measuring the relative growth of Channelers vs. Non-Channelers.

Since we know channeling is genetic if we knew how many genetic markers are needed for channeling. (e.g. if it is one gene and recessive it should simple to calculate).

And if Sharra has or continues to search for girls with the potential to learn.

If we knew all of these numbers we could work out statistics of channeling per population head and how the last 3,000 years have shaped these statistics.


Huh? We know how the last 3,000 years have shaped statistics. You mentioned it from an RJ interview. 2-3% could channel (Learners and Sparkers), in the AoL, and now 1% can channel.

Landro
05-09-2012, 11:45 AM
Yeah. Damane and Sul'dam would have been fantastic to determine the ratio of Sparkers-Learners, but we weren't able to find any actual numbers on them. Heh, we spent hours scrambling for that information, before deciding it didn't exist (please prove me wrong :D).

I think it was mentioned that there are more Suldam than Damane. Damane as channelers would have an increased lifespan but we don't know if the same is true for Suldam. Then there are those who are lost in battle and those who've been (potentially) sacrificed by letting a man hold the leash. (both die if the man is a sparker/learner)

Boli
05-09-2012, 02:07 PM
Umm... Tar Valon's population is 500,000, and it is the largest city by a wide margin. Caemlyn and Tear (some of the biggest cities) are around 300,000. Also, Aes Sedai and Kin together, are about 2600-2700.



RJ interview stuff from around 2000... he uppped the populations from the interview in 1996

Robert Jordan: The larger cities had between 300K and 600K. Tar Valon has 700K people. Andor has a population of 10 million.



Why would we need to know the odds that one trains to channel?



You will be able to find out the true potential channeller population

- Sparkers either die (75% chance), become wilders and/or join the white tower. The further the distance away from regular Aes Sedai contact the greater the chance they will either become a wilder which gives them a 75% death rate.

If only 1 in 50,000 girls went to the white tower with the desire to see if they can become an Aes Sedai and the chance that they could learn was 1% then Andor would sent 100 girls, 1 of which could learn how to channel. HOWEVER that means that there is a potential recruitmeant pool of 50,000 girls who are able to channel... but do not want to go to the white tower for training

Obviously these numbers are skewed by the wheels nature (ta'vereness) so whilst "normal" people have a 1 in 50,000 chance to learn how to be Aes Sedai chance is skewed so people who have the potential have a 1 in 5,000 chance to desire to learn.


Huh? We know how the last 3,000 years have shaped statistics. You mentioned it from an RJ interview. 2-3% could channel (Learners and Sparkers), in the AoL, and now 1% can channel.


The scale is *not* linear however it depends entirely on how each culture recruits and more importantly do channelers "breed"... Seanchan could easily have 30,000 Sul'damn and 5,000 damne due to their heavy recruitment method. but if Sul'Damn do not marry and have children and damne certainly do not their channeling population could only be 0.5% instead of 1% The reverse is true as well.. Shara has been breeding channelers in camps for 3,000 years... they could have 5-10% of the population channelers.

In the AoL everyone was tested so it is easy to get a decent spread of results across the entire pop[ulation and Aes Sedai whilst long-lived married and had children like everyone else. Our age is completly different; which makes each culture very different.

Davian93
05-09-2012, 02:13 PM
If Andor has a population of 10 million, it should be able to raise a conscript army much larger than the 200 K that Elayne estimates she could get if she called in every levy, etc etc to be "hardpressed to match the Borderlan army" in her words.

So, I wonder a bit on the numbers given that they are seemingly contradicted by the books themselves.

Tree Brother
05-09-2012, 02:16 PM
I don't think Shara followers the normal statistical patterns. In normal areas, channelling has been culled, leading to a smaller number of channelers, and possibly weaker ones.

In Shara, there is no culling. There is the opposite.

GonzoTheGreat
05-10-2012, 03:03 AM
If Andor has a population of 10 million, it should be able to raise a conscript army much larger than the 200 K that Elayne estimates she could get if she called in every levy, etc etc to be "hardpressed to match the Borderlan army" in her words.
The problem with an army that size (basically any army bigger than the A-Team) is feeding it, not assembling it.

Boli
05-10-2012, 05:19 AM
The problem with an army that size (basically any army bigger than the A-Team) is feeding it, not assembling it.

Actually been doing some reserch on that today... it all depends on how said army is fed/supplied


All unmarried able-bodied men between 18 and 25 were requisitioned with immediate effect for military service. This significantly increased the number of men in the army, reaching a peak of about 1,500,000 in September 1794, although the actual fighting strength probably peaked at no more than 800,000. In addition, as the decree suggests, much of the civilian population was turned towards supporting the armies through armaments production and other war industries as well as supplying food and provisions to the front.


Consider the Levée en masse of napoleonic Europe France with a population of ~ 28,000,000 could at maximum bring to bear 1,500,000 men (or 5% of its population). This is the army supplied fed watered and armed.

800,000 from a 10m population is pretty good going; whilst they have levee's Andor is not in a war economy so it is doubtful they will be able to be supplied for longer than a month. Yo could prob get closer to an army of 5 million but untrained, un equiped and every death sacrifies the future of Andor... something we will see with the battle of Caemlyn I'm thinking.

greatwolf
05-15-2012, 02:51 PM
In the Age of Legends it was something like 2-3% of the population could channel or be taught to channel

True, but as you noted, RJ says the current rate is 1% due to culling, emphasis on the "due". So if culling does not occur, we should expect that the ratios would remain close to aol values?

Lets consider the aiel.

The shaido may give us the best statistics. We know they have about 83 septs and 550 WOs and apprentices.


Reaching in among the bundles tied to the ornate saddle, Sulin drew out a rag doll dressed in cadin'sor. "Elyas Machera found this just before we turned back, about forty miles from here." She shook her head, and for a moment her voice and scent became . . . startled. "He said he smelled it beneath the snow. He and Jondyn Barran found scrapes on the trees they said were caused by carts. Very many carts. If there are children ... I think it may be a whole sept, Perrin Aybara. Perhaps more than one. Even a single sept will have at least a thousand spears, and more at need. Every man but the blacksmiths will pick up a spear at need. They are days south of us. Perhaps more

A rough estimate of the shaido population would be between 100k to 200k. (They had 160k at cairhien, including brotherless but only 100k at malden)

So 550 for a population greater than 100k is below even the 1% for culled population which the aiel definitely are not. Likely they are mostly or exclusively sparkers. IIRC, there's a process to identifying learners and we've seen no indication that the aiel know how to do this.

Though WOs live long and may marry two, three or more times, AS of the aol lived longer.But aol AS may have been more restricted in breeding as more sophisticated societies tend to be.


The seanchan may have the most culled population of all or not. Suldam marry but live normal lifespans. But since the channeling trait is recessive, both sparkers and learners would be homozygous for the trait and should make little difference to the numbers


The sharans have been breeding for 3000years. Starting at 2%, how many offspring would they have by now? Remeber the females would live longer than the 200 to 300years RJ gave us for AS. Unless they restrict themselves, they'll number in millions by now. Its about 100 generations or so.


If Andor has a population of 10 million, it should be able to raise a conscript army much larger than the 200 K that Elayne estimates she could get if she called in every levy, etc etc to be "hardpressed to match the Borderlan army" in her words.


That doesn't mean they'll be able to match 200k trained borderlanders. They'll be inexperienced and Elayne might have been referring to the number of trained men Andor could field.

GonzoTheGreat
05-16-2012, 02:25 AM
True, but as you noted, RJ says the current rate is 1% due to culling, emphasis on the "due". So if culling does not occur, we should expect that the ratios would remain close to aol values?
No, as at least part of the ability has a genetic basis. And it is precisely that part which has gotten a reduced frequency in the population as a result of the culling. So at least for a time, the rate would remain around the 1%. It might start to rise again, if channelers were having babies often enough.

Enigma
05-16-2012, 05:16 AM
I generally suck at maths so I will leave the statistics to wiser people that me but something occured to me. The ratio of channeling people in Seanchan should be higher that the westlands. Why, well the sul'dam who are the learners hold an honoured position in society. They get married and have kids and pass on their lovely genes.

In the Westlands the AS who comprise a lot of the learners & sparklers generally don' have children. I am not sure about the Kin an even larger group but I was under the impression that they don't marry either. The group with the highest precentage should be Shara where young males are bred like cattle before being executed and the woman probably also have kids.

Secondly some channeler develope blocks. The one we are most familiar with in Nynaeve but there have been Asha'man with blocks as well. I seem to recall that RJ said that it was due to blocks in male channelers that the Isle of Madman is intact at all.

Now a block does not have to stop channeling completly but given the stigma attatched to male channeling it would be easy to see a man who can channell developing really severe blocks on his ability and this might effect the progression of the taint

GonzoTheGreat
05-16-2012, 05:24 AM
Only a small minority of possible channelers goes to the White Tower. This is made very clear by comparing the numbers Egwene drew in to how many normally were admitted to the Tower in a similar time period.

Boli
05-16-2012, 05:28 AM
The Kin do not marry... it is mentioned when Elayne suggests that it would be wise to let the kin marry so they have a greater sense of place and to differenciate them from Aes Sedai.


Unfortunally it not stated one way or the other if Sul'dam marry. Damne definatly do not; and I would wager Seachan is the sort of sociaty which will kill the children of any male channelers; even if they do not Seachan siphon off all *all* who are born with the spark out of the genetic history.

If Sul'Damn never .. or rarely marry the channeling population will plummet as the only way the genes could be passed along woudl be by men who are able to learn.

Even if they do marry there is still going to be a "culling" of channeling ability; although not as great as Randland.... If having the spark is also a genetic ability they sociaity will reach a point where there ARE no dammne and Sul'Damn will only "breed" more Sul'Damn.

greatwolf
05-16-2012, 03:07 PM
No, as at least part of the ability has a genetic basis. And it is precisely that part which has gotten a reduced frequency in the population as a result of the culling. So at least for a time, the rate would remain around the 1%. It might start to rise again, if channelers were having babies often enough.


I don't see what you're getting at, Gonzo. The ability is recessive. That means both parents must contribute in order for a given individual to channel. But AS are removed from the gene pool in RL and the male sparkers are also removed. That led to the culling of the population with fewer channelers in RL.

But in seanchan only sparkers (damane) are removed from the gene pool. (and male sparkers of course) So by rights they should have a higher rate than RLers but maybe not as much as the aol. The The sharans however, definitely will have a higher natural rate than the aol because in the societies, all the offspring of channelers will be able to channel. No exceptions. The aiel though, likely have rates as close to the aol as possible. Maybe a little more or a little less.

GonzoTheGreat
05-17-2012, 03:22 AM
In the Aiel Waste, and in Shara too, male channelers still have a decidedly shorter life span compared to what they would have had in the AOL. So that is already one factor which would limit how many children they would have: time to reproduce.

If all such issues disappeared overnight (which seems not too likely, but perhaps it will happen anyway), then there would still be a much lower frequency of channeling genes in the gene pool than there had been in the AOL. Since non-channeling genes wouldn't be selected against, these relative frequences would not change significantly, at least not in the short term. Thus, the numbers of potential channelers would remain around the 1% where they are now, rather than shooting up to the 3% mark of the AOL.
Eventually, in the very long run (centuries and millennia), because of the longer lifetime of channelers their genes would increase in frequency.

Boli
05-17-2012, 05:26 AM
In the Aiel Waste, and in Shara too, male channelers still have a decidedly shorter life span compared to what they would have had in the AOL. So that is already one factor which would limit how many children they would have: time to reproduce.

I'm pretty sure in Shara the boys are just used as "breeding stock"; Given that Genghis Khan fathered a suspected 6k-8k children in his 65 years (most would be during his 21 year reign) a 12-21 year old boy could father a *lot* of children. (even if you consider he only starts to father from 16-21 that is still a a lot of potential children.

I'm of the opion that in these "camps" the % is going to be a *lot* higher than even the AoL.

EDIT: found more infoz

Male Ayyad are not allowed to learn to read or write, or do anything at all really. They can feed and dress themselves and that is about it. They are used to breed more female Ayyad, and as such their bloodlines are traced like horse breeding stock. Males are communally raised, called simply "the male", instead of "he". When they are sixteen they are taken from the village and are hooded and cloaked, and are matched with women who desire children, which is sometimes several. When he is twenty-one, or shows signs of channeling, he is taken from the village as if again to go breed and is instead killed and cremated.

Enigma
05-17-2012, 06:39 AM
This is very left of field but one other bit of info that might support high channeling rates in Shara is Aviendha's future visions. In that the Aiel have all but been wiped out and then cannot flee to Share because of a treaty between the Raven Empire (Seanchan) and Shara.

Its not 100% conclusive the Seanchan don't really have a claim on Shara as it was not settled or ruled by Hawkwing but they do seem to be the sort to seek to rule everyone as its really for their own good that the Seanchan civilise them. If they have a treaty with Shara that suggests that Shara is simply too powerful to conquor. Powerful would equate to a big compitent army and a big core of channelers who know what they are doing.

I know its a bit of a stretch but thought I would throw it in all the same.

greatwolf
05-18-2012, 04:55 PM
In the Aiel Waste, and in Shara too, male channelers still have a decidedly shorter life span


Not male channelers, just male sparkers who have sparked i.e above 20 or so.



compared to what they would have had in the AOL. So that is already one factor which would limit how many children they would have: time to reproduce.

Depends on how many children each channeler had in the aol. As stated earlier, its an affluent civilization that probably had a low birth and death rate. Unlike present times.

GonzoTheGreat
05-19-2012, 02:10 AM
Not male channelers, just male sparkers who have sparked i.e above 20 or so.

Male channelers. In the AOL, most learners would actually have learned, which would have increased their expected life span by a factor of three or thereabouts. So, while the reduction in life span is even more severe for the sparkers, the learners also have a significant relative (and absolute, but that's less relevant here) reduction.

compared to what they would have had in the AOL. So that is already one factor which would limit how many children they would have: time to reproduce.

Depends on how many children each channeler had in the aol. As stated earlier, its an affluent civilization that probably had a low birth and death rate. Unlike present times.
True, but with 500 years of being capable of having and raising children I would still expect the channelers to have a somewhat higher birth rate than the non-channelers who at the time had about 150 years or so.

greatwolf
05-19-2012, 03:24 PM
Male channelers. In the AOL, most learners would actually have learned, which would have increased their expected life span by a factor of three or thereabouts. So, while the reduction in life span is even more severe for the sparkers, the learners also have a significant relative (and absolute, but that's less relevant here) reduction.


True, but with 500 years of being capable of having and raising children I would still expect the channelers to have a somewhat higher birth rate than the non-channelers who at the time had about 150 years or so.

The number of children one has is usually not a function of how long you live, especially for men.

GonzoTheGreat
05-20-2012, 03:58 AM
The number of children one has is usually not a function of how long you live, especially for men.
Yes and no. A better indicator is often how many relationships you have.
In our world, if a man and a woman have a relationship with each other for 50 years, then he'll probably have just one clutch of children. But if a male AS has 50 year long relationships, then he could easily have 8 to 10 of those over his entire lifetime, each with its separate brood. A non-channeler would have 2 or 3 batches* of children. Thus, the channeler would tend to have more children over an entire lifetime.

* Glad I don't have to come up with yet another synonym in this post.

greatwolf
05-20-2012, 12:50 PM
Yes and no. A better indicator is often how many relationships you have.
In our world, if a man and a woman have a relationship with each other for 50 years, then he'll probably have just one clutch of children. But if a male AS has 50 year long relationships, then he could easily have 8 to 10 of those over his entire lifetime, each with its separate brood. A non-channeler would have 2 or 3 batches* of children. Thus, the channeler would tend to have more children over an entire lifetime.

* Glad I don't have to come up with yet another synonym in this post.

Men have several relationships in their lifetimes but do they have children from all relationships? The bonds formed from a relationship that lasts 50years can be pretty difficult to ignore when you want to start the next "brood".

I mean how do you explain to a 50year old "kid" that you want to get a new mummy and brothers andf sisters? Kid probably has a 10-20year old "kid" of his own.

GonzoTheGreat
05-20-2012, 04:16 PM
I mean how do you explain to a 50year old "kid" that you want to get a new mummy and brothers andf sisters? Kid probably has a 10-20year old "kid" of his own.
Why do you think Traveling was invented? :D

Edited to add:
It might be more difficult to explain to a 250 year old kid that you're dating the great grand daughter of his first girlfriend.