Flinn Sedai

05-08-2012, 03:18 PM

My friend was trying to come up with a timeline on the taint effects. Now, I'm not 100% sure on how he was planning to do it, but I provided him with the information he asked for. By the time we got it, though, he had forgotten how he was planning to do it. I figured if any group of people would be able to come up with a way to do it...

Anyways, here's the information he asked for, including some basic calculations. So, we're going to find how many Sparkers there are.

We're starting off with a population of 100,000 people. We know that in Randland, 1% of people could channel, in some sense (either Sparkers or Learners). Based on Taim's report in LoC, we have a Sparker-Learner ratio of 5-444 or 4-444, which is Narishma, Flinn, Rand, Logain, and Taim (if you think he's from the Third Age). From here on, calculations with Taim from AoL will be in parenthesis. Of those, 1/4 survive the crisis of channeling for the first time.

Population - 100,000

Potential Channelers - 1,000

Sparkers - 11 (9)

Survivors - 2.75 (2.25)

Now, taking that information, he wanted to compare it to Shara's execution policy. We know that male channelers usually start channeling between 16-26. Going on a normal distribution, we can assume covers 95% of channelers, which means 2 standard distributions. That puts the mean age at 21, with a standard deviation of 2.5 years.

Typical age range: 16-26

Mean age: 21

Standard Deviation: 2.5

Using that information, we could estimate the rate of male channelers that goes on in Shara, where they execute at 21. For our purposes, we're going with a population of 1,000,000 total in Shara (hard to tell the actual population). That means that we can expect that 13.75 (11.25) are executed before they manifest. That leaves 13.75 (11.25) that are executed after they have begun to channel. They are broken down by how long they have been channeling, as follows.

Total Population: 1,000,000

Total Sparkers: 27.5 (22.5)

Survive <2.5 years: 9.4 (7.7)

Survive 2.5-5 years: 3.74 (3)

Survive >5 years: 0.6 (0.5)

This was about as far as we got. Based on that, we figured that that those who had channeled for less than 2.5 years might go unnoticed, and might not actually need to be executed before they turned 21.

I kind of threw these all together while I wasn't paying much attention, so I assume I have a few things wrong. Anything that people could correct me on, or anything that people can add to this? Specifically, using the information we have, can anybody help figure out how to determine the typical progression of taint effects?

Anyways, here's the information he asked for, including some basic calculations. So, we're going to find how many Sparkers there are.

We're starting off with a population of 100,000 people. We know that in Randland, 1% of people could channel, in some sense (either Sparkers or Learners). Based on Taim's report in LoC, we have a Sparker-Learner ratio of 5-444 or 4-444, which is Narishma, Flinn, Rand, Logain, and Taim (if you think he's from the Third Age). From here on, calculations with Taim from AoL will be in parenthesis. Of those, 1/4 survive the crisis of channeling for the first time.

Population - 100,000

Potential Channelers - 1,000

Sparkers - 11 (9)

Survivors - 2.75 (2.25)

Now, taking that information, he wanted to compare it to Shara's execution policy. We know that male channelers usually start channeling between 16-26. Going on a normal distribution, we can assume covers 95% of channelers, which means 2 standard distributions. That puts the mean age at 21, with a standard deviation of 2.5 years.

Typical age range: 16-26

Mean age: 21

Standard Deviation: 2.5

Using that information, we could estimate the rate of male channelers that goes on in Shara, where they execute at 21. For our purposes, we're going with a population of 1,000,000 total in Shara (hard to tell the actual population). That means that we can expect that 13.75 (11.25) are executed before they manifest. That leaves 13.75 (11.25) that are executed after they have begun to channel. They are broken down by how long they have been channeling, as follows.

Total Population: 1,000,000

Total Sparkers: 27.5 (22.5)

Survive <2.5 years: 9.4 (7.7)

Survive 2.5-5 years: 3.74 (3)

Survive >5 years: 0.6 (0.5)

This was about as far as we got. Based on that, we figured that that those who had channeled for less than 2.5 years might go unnoticed, and might not actually need to be executed before they turned 21.

I kind of threw these all together while I wasn't paying much attention, so I assume I have a few things wrong. Anything that people could correct me on, or anything that people can add to this? Specifically, using the information we have, can anybody help figure out how to determine the typical progression of taint effects?