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Sodas
08-29-2008, 03:42 AM
I'm sure most have heard about this powerful storm if you live in the US. For those that haven't, this is a powerful storm that is heading for the US gulf coast. It looks like it might be roughly category 3 (the same as Katrina) going into the same area. Many computer models put it at New Orleans again.

This storm could indeed land in New Orleans, days after the aniversary of Katrina. Jindal, governer, and FEMA, seem aware of the coming storm. But are the sea walls, cannals and levees ready? G-d only knows.

With these lives at risk, I was shocked tonight when I heard everyone's favorite political hack Rove on Faux News say that the storm won't give the Republicans a break. The Republicans? How about the people of the gulf coast and New Orleans? I understand the Republicans are in the middle of reaping their failed policies, and desperately need a decent convention ... but common! This is the party that doesn't believe in science. Surely, they shouldn't have been praying for rain on Obama tonight http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohxdvio9n2Q, and instead have focused on praying for a Hurricane season to be peaceful.

Irony!

Terez
08-29-2008, 03:46 AM
Yup, today is the anniversary. Woo.

Gustav doesn't look all that scary but it's hard to tell exactly how bad it's going to be and exactly where it's going to hit till about the time the power goes out. I'm an hour north of the coast for school, and my mom said she might stay with me in my dorm room.

In other words, if the eye goes up New Orleans way, Gulfport will get the bastard quadrant of the storm (just like in Katrina). We'll get some good rain and wind where I am, but no storm surge - mom's house is a block off the beach and she's still renovating it from Katrina damage.

GonzoTheGreat
08-29-2008, 03:50 AM
Sodas, who are more important: a bunch of Democrat voting - search for acceptable phrase - African Americans, and poor ones at that, or the Republican Convention participants?

Terez
08-29-2008, 03:51 AM
Most of the people in Gustav's path are Republicans. Uh, the vast majority in fact. :p

Sodas
08-29-2008, 03:53 AM
I remember watching the video of the helicopter flyovers. Horrific was the only way to desribe it. And I think those parts of Mississippi and Alabama were ignored even more so than New Orleans.

I like to watch www.weatherunderground.com

They have 6 computer models you can look at. 3 right now are pointing towards Texas, and 3 towards New Orleans-Alabama area. Of course, it could be anywhere in that range. The 5 day has shifted alittle west of New Orleans now, so it could be moving towards Texas ... or the "bastard" side hits New Orleans directly.

Terez
08-29-2008, 03:59 AM
I think those parts of Mississippi and Alabama were ignored even more so than New Orleans.
We were, and though we often commented to each other on it, I don't think many of us really cared. We had more pressing concerns at the time. Still do...

Sodas
08-29-2008, 04:02 AM
Lol. If it's Bush, clearly the RNC. Bush ignored New Orleans, but rushed to help in Florida for other hurricanes, and California for the wildfires near Orange County.

He probably will use it as an excuse not to attend the RNC for McCain's political benefit - but that's another point altogether.

Terez
08-29-2008, 04:04 AM
He probably will use it as an excuse not to attend the RNC for McCain's political benefit - but that's another point altogether.
I'm sure McCain would appreciate that. Seriously.

Mort
08-29-2008, 04:25 AM
A hurricane with a swedish name? A common name for our kings as well. Better watch the F%#$ out I'd say. :)

On a nother note, who names the hurricanes? Gustav isn't exactly one of the most common names in the US, not even in Sweden :)

Terez
08-29-2008, 04:44 AM
Hurricanes' names are drawn from a variety of cultures. Here's some info (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml) on the process. :) The last big one around here before Katrina was Camille (rather French, I think) and one of the more recent major storms (though not as major as Katrina or Camille) was Georges (definitely not an American name), which about half of the locals still call "Hurricane George". :D

Sodas
08-29-2008, 04:57 AM
The first letter of the Hurricane identifies it's order. So, Gustav is the 7th tropical storm of this season.

Reminding us all again...

http://i207.photobucket.com/albums/bb297/DJVinceDavinci/bush_hurricane_cake.jpg

Terez
08-29-2008, 05:10 AM
lol...the pic on the left was pretty much me. As soon as the wind died down enough for it to be safe for me to get out, I went down to my neighborhood and sort of walked around in a daze. Well, it would be more accurate to say I climbed over heaps of rubble in a daze...

Davian93
08-29-2008, 07:21 AM
A hurricane with a swedish name? A common name for our kings as well. Better watch the F%#$ out I'd say. :)

On a nother note, who names the hurricanes? Gustav isn't exactly one of the most common names in the US, not even in Sweden :)

I believe the storm's middle name is Adolphus...;)

Mort
08-29-2008, 07:29 AM
I believe the storm's middle name is Adolphus...;)

I would have taken the first plane out of there, or get another hurricane to fight the first one :D

Davian93
08-29-2008, 07:33 AM
I would have taken the first plane out of there, or get another hurricane to fight the first one :D

At least its name isn't Christian XII...

Mort
08-29-2008, 07:37 AM
At least its name isn't Christian XII...

Who? If you are referring to a danish king, I don't think they had one called that...

Davian93
08-29-2008, 07:47 AM
Who? If you are referring to a danish king, I don't think they had one called that...

Wasn't that the number for the one who fought Peter the Great? Its been a while though so I probably got it wrong.

Gilshalos Sedai
08-29-2008, 07:52 AM
http://www.click2houston.com/hurricanetracker/index.html

That's the track according to one of the TV stations down here. They tend to be less sensationalistic about this stuff than the other two. The guy on the ABC affiliate last night was predicting Armageddon, for God's sake.

It's been over 25 years since a hurricane has hit Houston (and no, Rita doesn't count since it hit east). I just hope the evacuation goes a hell of a lot smoother this time.

Either way, we more than likely won't be evacuating, we're too far north.

Davian93
08-29-2008, 07:55 AM
Sorry Mort...I meant Charles XII...got my C names confused for second.

Mort
08-29-2008, 07:57 AM
Wasn't that the number for the one who fought Peter the Great? Its been a while though so I probably got it wrong.

You are probably thinking of the swedish king Karl XII, or Charles maybe in english. Christian is a common danish name for their kings. Our most common are Charles, Gustav and Adolf for the most part (do you say Adolphous?). Like our current king is called Karl XVI Gustav and his father's name was Gustav VI Adolf.

Not much imagination when it comes to names when it comes to royalty :)

Davian93
08-29-2008, 08:00 AM
You are probably thinking of the swedish king Karl XII, or Charles maybe in english. Christian is a common danish name for their kings. Our most common are Charles, Gustav and Adolf for the most part (do you say Adolphous?). Like our current king is called Karl XVI Gustav and his father's name was Gustav VI Adolf.

Not much imagination when it comes to names when it comes to royalty :)

The 30 years war one is called Gustavus Adolphus in all my books and Karl is Charles. Most of my books use purely anglicized names for everyone. Peter instead of Petra, Charles instead of Karl, etc etc

Mort
08-29-2008, 08:12 AM
I think it is standard in english litterature at least to do so.

Zaela Sedai
08-29-2008, 10:20 AM
MAn I was a weak crappy Hurricane in '07 and I'm sure I'll be the same in '13

Brita
08-29-2008, 10:29 AM
Pff! At least you get a hurricane named after you....

~~pouts~~

Gilshalos Sedai
08-29-2008, 10:31 AM
I don't want one named for me. It's usually a BAD THING when they hit the letter "S".

Brita
08-29-2008, 10:33 AM
But I'm an "A"- by every right I should have a hurricane named after me- "A"s come every year.

Hmff!

Frenzy
08-29-2008, 10:43 AM
Hurricanes are named by an international committee at a meeting of the world meteorological organization, whoever they are.

Atlantic Hurricane Names (http://www.redcross.org/news/ds/hurricanes/010524naming.html)

Sinistrum
08-29-2008, 11:00 AM
Apparently they've had an influx of representatives from San Francisco. How else do you explain the last one's name? Edouard. :p

Weird Harold
08-29-2008, 11:08 AM
I'm sure most have heard about this powerful storm if you live in the US. For those that haven't, this is a powerful storm that is heading for the US gulf coast. It looks like it might be roughly category 3 (the same as Katrina) going into the same area. Many computer models put it at New Orleans again.

Actually, I think it is going to be closer to Rita's track and strenght landing along the TX/LA border. The predictied landfall has been moving steadlily west since Gustav was first named.


Some Graphics to keep track of what we're talking about (they all update when you refresh the page):
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5_sm2+gif/203213W_sm.gif
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_5day.gif
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_model.gif

Davian93
08-29-2008, 11:10 AM
New Orlean's will be hurting if it takes that purple path...what would place the eastern eye wall squarely over the city with all that storm surge against the levies...ouch.

Terez
08-29-2008, 11:40 AM
NO will probably hurt the most from the red path, actually...

Davian93
08-29-2008, 11:41 AM
NO will probably hurt the most from the red path, actually...

I'll take your word for it...both would be pretty bad, right?

Weird Harold
08-29-2008, 12:15 PM
NO will probably hurt the most from the red path, actually...
I think you missed the HWRF track between the red GFS and Blue GFDL tracks. That's the Purple track Dav was talking about, but it's close to the same color as the background.

Crispin's Crispian
08-29-2008, 12:31 PM
I think you missed the HWRF track between the red GFS and Blue GFDL tracks. That's the Purple track Dav was talking about, but it's close to the same color as the background.
The red path would put NO on the east side of the eye wall, which is typically the most devastating side. Contrary to what you might think, being just east of the eyewall is worse than having the eye pass right over you.

Shit. That blue line puts it right where Katrina was, and right back over my father-in-law's house.

He said he'd only do this one more time, and then he's moving. I wonder if he'll be home for Christmas... :(

Weird Harold
08-29-2008, 12:53 PM
The red path would put NO on the east side of the eye wall, which is typically the most devastating side. Contrary to what you might think, being just east of the eyewall is worse than having the eye pass right over you.

Shit. That blue line puts it right where Katrina was, and right back over my father-in-law's house.

He said he'd only do this one more time, and then he's moving. I wonder if he'll be home for Christmas... :(
The Purple projection (as of the 11 AM EDT Aug 29 update which is about due to be replaced) would run the actual eastern eyewall of a CAt 3 right through the French Quarter. The Red projection would run the actual Eye Wall about thirty miles west of NOLA and dump more rain than wind on NOLA.

But those projections have been moving steadly westward; the initial run's while Gustav was still approaching Haiti predicted a run right up the spine of Cuba and a US landfall somewhere East of Mobile AL day after tommorrow (Sun.)

Sinistrum
08-29-2008, 01:25 PM
You all know what the solution to this is right? HURRICANE PARTY! That way anyone in NO who is actually there when it hits will be too drunk to care. :D

Terez
08-29-2008, 01:26 PM
The Purple projection (as of the 11 AM EDT Aug 29 update which is about due to be replaced) would run the actual eastern eyewall of a CAt 3 right through the French Quarter. The Red projection would run the actual Eye Wall about thirty miles west of NOLA and dump more rain than wind on NOLA. Muttley is right - it's worse to be on the east side of the eye than to have the eye pass right over you - the northeast quadrant of the storm is the worst for wind and storm surge. The eye actually provides a break for the areas it passes over, while those in the northeast quadrant don't get a break. From here (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/08/gustav_on_the_brink_of_explosi.html?hpid=news-col-blogs):

The worst case scenario for New Orleans would be for the storm to make landfall just slightly to its west or a nudge east of the middle of the National Hurricane Center's current forecast... Such a track would inflict Gustav's strongest winds and maximum storm surge on the city. Katrina actually tracked just east of the city and would have impacted the city even more severely had it come inland just slightly west of where it did.
The eye of Katrina actually passed to the east of New Orleans, which means New Orleans wasn't even in the bastard quadrant for that one (I was, though). They suffered because of their altitude (or lack thereof) and being surrounded by water, but it would have been much worse if the eye had passed to the other side of the city (probably a few more feet of storm surge, which could have compromised even more levies, and more wind).

Edited for quotey goodness...

Terez
08-29-2008, 01:30 PM
You all know what the solution to this is right? HURRICANE PARTY! That way anyone in NO who is actually there when it hits will be too drunk to care. :DThere's an urban legend (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Camille#The_Hurricane_Party) about a hurricane party during Camille in '69 that everybody on the MS Coast knows (though most don't know it isn't a true story). So pretty much everyone where I'm from is of the opinion that Hurricane Parties are a BAD IDEA. :)

Well, I think Hurricane Parties are a great idea personally, but they should most definitely NOT be held anywhere near a body of water that's likely to flood you. I chose my location for Katrina quite carefully. We even had a porch that faced west, which made it possible for us to stand outside for most of it. :D

Crispin's Crispian
08-29-2008, 03:21 PM
In Katrina, I think NO didn't even really flood until the storm was inland north of the city. I think NO isn't really in much danger of the storm surge from the ocean, but when the winds reverse on the backside the Lake may flood. I could be misremembering, though, since I was fairly distracted away from the Big Breezy.

Terez, how long is your mom going to wait until she decides what to do? I imagine my wife will call her dad tonight or tomorrow to find out what he's going to do.

Terez
08-29-2008, 03:35 PM
In Katrina, I think NO didn't even really flood until the storm was inland north of the city. I think NO isn't really in much danger of the storm surge from the ocean, but when the winds reverse on the backside the Lake may flood. I could be misremembering, though, since I was fairly distracted away from the Big Breezy. I made it down to mom's probably about 5 hours into the southeast quadrant, and the water was all gone by then. And most of the houses too (though bits of them were still around, in big piles here and there). Around here everyone just calls it the storm. I doubt Gustav will be scary enough to change that...

Terez, how long is your mom going to wait until she decides what to do? I imagine my wife will call her dad tonight or tomorrow to find out what he's going to do. Yeah, I was going to ask what your FIL would do - I know you said he'd never ride out another one but I know how hard it is to pick up on short notice and fly to Oregon. :D

My mom will probably wait until the last minute. They've just finished a new north-south highway* that will ease up a lot of the traffic going out of Gulfport, and she wouldn't be going as far as most people anyway. She was already out of town on vacation (in GA) when Katrina cut across Florida as a Cat 1, so she just stayed there. She tried to get me to ride up there with some friends of hers but since she was up there she couldn't make me. :D

* Rule #1 of hurricane evacuation: Do not go east or west, because hurricanes like to change their minds about where they're going to hit at the last minute. Go north.

Gilshalos Sedai
08-29-2008, 03:48 PM
That graphic puts two tracks right up the Houston Ship Channel, WH. Not. Fun. Hope there's no shuttle in orbit when it hits.

Weird Harold
08-29-2008, 05:06 PM
Muttley is right - it's worse to be on the east side of the eye than to have the eye pass right over you - the northeast quadrant of the storm is the worst for wind and storm surge. The eye actually provides a break for the areas it passes over, while those in the northeast quadrant don't get a break.

It's a moot point at the moment because the 5 PM EDT tracks moved even further west, But you misunderstood what I said -- I know the Eye of a hurricane give people a break, but unless I was totally reading the track wrong, the center of the three tracks threatening NOLA would have passed the Eye over Lake Ponchatrain(sp) and passed the strongest (eastern) part of the eyeWALL over the city so that it got the very strongest winds and the maximum amount of time inside the storm.

I think Gil is right to be concerned about those two tracks that run right through Houston, because at the rate the projections have been moving West that's about where landfall will happen if the trend continues.

I don't think it will though, there's a right turn in Gustav's future, and I really do expect it to take that red track right up the same line Rita took.

Davian93
08-29-2008, 05:11 PM
For a Houston strike, it has to pretty much hit it just right correct? If it goes east or west just a little bit it won't be so bad floodingwise? If it hits that ship channel its bad but otherwise not so much comparatively?

Marie Curie 7
08-29-2008, 05:35 PM
I think Gil is right to be concerned about those two tracks that run right through Houston, because at the rate the projections have been moving West that's about where landfall will happen if the trend continues.

I don't think it will though, there's a right turn in Gustav's future, and I really do expect it to take that red track right up the same line Rita took.

At about this same time from landfall (3 1/2 days out or so), Katrina predicted path was to hit the Florida panhandle, just south of the Alabama/Georgia border. Take a look (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA_graphics.shtml) (frame 9 or so - about 3 1/2 days from landfall). So its projected path at the time was too far east. On the other hand, Rita's projected path (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RITA_graphics.shtml) at about the same time from landfall was too far west (frame 13). So who knows? We started seeing roughly the correct path for Katrina about two days before landfall, and about the same for Rita.

Weird Harold
08-29-2008, 05:51 PM
At about this same time from landfall (3 1/2 days out or so), Katrina predicted path was to hit the Florida panhandle, just south of the Alabama/Georgia border. Take a look (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA_graphics.shtml) (frame 9 or so - about 3 1/2 days from landfall). So its projected path at the time was too far east. On the other hand, Rita's projected path (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RITA_graphics.shtml) at about the same time from landfall was too far west (frame 13). So who knows? We started seeing roughly the correct path for Katrina about two days before landfall, and about the same for Rita.
Too true. WE don't even need to go back to KAtrina and Rita to know the computer models can be grossly in error more than a day away -- Fay spent most of a week exposing flaws in the five day forecast models. :D

Marie Curie 7
08-29-2008, 09:56 PM
Too true. WE don't even need to go back to KAtrina and Rita to know the computer models can be grossly in error more than a day away -- Fay spent most of a week exposing flaws in the five day forecast models. :D

Yeah, I'm aware of that -- you can pick pretty much any hurricane/tropical storm to look at long-range forecast deviations. But I chose to use Katrina and Rita as examples because they were explicitly mentioned in this thread in relation to Gustav. :)

P.S. Winds are up to 80 mph for Gustav now, and it's going to have time and open water to strengthen before and again after it passes over Cuba.

Terez
08-29-2008, 10:16 PM
Hence the rule. Go north! :D

Sei'taer
08-29-2008, 10:36 PM
I heard they had started evacuating prisoners. Any other evacs in the works that anyone knows about? I think Nagin said monday? that seems like it's cutting it a little close.

Sodas
08-30-2008, 10:27 AM
Just an update:

This morning, the computer models upgrade the predicted landfall strength to category 4. All the major models are now showing landfall in central Louisana, or the storm churning back into the gulf. That still places the "bastard" quadrant on NOLA.

To everyone who is in the path : please take care of yourself. Our prayers are with you and your families.

Weird Harold
08-30-2008, 10:16 PM
Just an update:

This morning, the computer models upgrade the predicted landfall strength to category 4. All the major models are now showing landfall in central Louisana, or the storm churning back into the gulf. That still places the "bastard" quadrant on NOLA.

To everyone who is in the path : please take care of yourself. Our prayers are with you and your families.
11PM EDT update:

The computer models are showing a bit more easterly landfall -- more Baton Rouge than Lafayette -- but more worrisome is the litle bow in the projections that takes Gustav just offshore south of NOLA from the SE instead of passing further out from the SSE; it's going to make a huge difference in the Storm Surge.

Sodas
08-30-2008, 10:35 PM
Not to mention it's already a Cat 4, going Cat 5.

Will it still be Cat 5 by Landfall? That is the question.

Brita
08-30-2008, 11:47 PM
To everyone who is in the path : please take care of yourself. Our prayers are with you and your families.

Ditto.

Terez
08-31-2008, 02:01 AM
The computer models are showing a bit more easterly landfall
Oh, yay.

Mom is coming up to stay with me tonight. It won't be much better up here so far as wind goes, but mom's house is a block off the beach, and though she's 21 ft. above sea level and they're only predicting 19 ft., she should probably get out of her house. :)

Davian93
08-31-2008, 09:06 AM
Oh, yay.

Mom is coming up to stay with me tonight. It won't be much better up here so far as wind goes, but mom's house is a block off the beach, and though she's 21 ft. above sea level and they're only predicting 19 ft., she should probably get out of her house. :)

That's good sound thinking there...even with that 2 feet to spare.

Weird Harold
08-31-2008, 11:57 AM
Not to mention it's already a Cat 4, going Cat 5.

Will it still be Cat 5 by Landfall? That is the question.
The 10 AM CDT Sun projections don't show an increase to Cat 5:

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_5day.gif

If previous hurricanes are any indication, Gustave is going to lose a lot of strength just before landfall as it hits the shallower part of the Gulf around the Mississippi delta -- not enough to let NOLA off the hook, but it probably won't be a Cat 5 and maybe won't even be a Cat 4 when it actually makes landfall.

Crispin's Crispian
08-31-2008, 12:13 PM
The 10 AM CDT Sun projections don't show an increase to Cat 5:

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_5day.gif

If previous hurricanes are any indication, Gustave is going to lose a lot of strength just before landfall as it hits the shallower part of the Gulf around the Mississippi delta -- not enough to let NOLA off the hook, but it probably won't be a Cat 5 and maybe won't even be a Cat 4 when it actually makes landfall.
It doesn't matter much, depending on the type of storm and how large it is. Katrina was a Cat 5 in the gulf but weakened to a Cat 3 prior to landfall. But the pressure was so low and the storm so large that the storm surge was massive. She was also moving really slow, which makes things that much worse.

Weird Harold
08-31-2008, 12:43 PM
It doesn't matter much, depending on the type of storm and how large it is. Katrina was a Cat 5 in the gulf but weakened to a Cat 3 prior to landfall. But the pressure was so low and the storm so large that the storm surge was massive. She was also moving really slow, which makes things that much worse.

The Weather Channel's "storm expert" made the point earlier today that Katrina approached from almost due South and passed East of NOLA. Gustav is approaching from the SE and aimed to pass South and then West of NOLA.

All things considered, it looks to me like the impact on NOLA is going to be comparable to Katrina despite Gustav being weaker and moving a bit faster.

Crispin's Crispian
08-31-2008, 01:07 PM
Hopefully any improvements they made in NOLA weren't designed specifically with Katrina in mind. Wind and water from a different directions could overwhelm the fortifications.

My FIL is evacuating, and it looks like that was wise. Waveland won't get another direct hit, but the storm surge is forecast at 15 feet right now.

He was talking to my wife last night, and pointed out that hurricanes always seem to "jog" east (I think that's what he said), and I assume that's because of the move into the westerlies out of the trade winds. But I'm not sure you can make that generalization.

Weird Harold
08-31-2008, 03:58 PM
Hopefully any improvements they made in NOLA weren't designed specifically with Katrina in mind. Wind and water from a different directions could overwhelm the fortifications.

My FIL is evacuating, and it looks like that was wise. Waveland won't get another direct hit, but the storm surge is forecast at 15 feet right now.

He was talking to my wife last night, and pointed out that hurricanes always seem to "jog" east (I think that's what he said), and I assume that's because of the move into the westerlies out of the trade winds. But I'm not sure you can make that generalization.
Hurricanes almost always "turn right" when they hit land and the remnants almost always move North and then East, much as Fay did earlier this month.

However, according to the Weather channel ther is a large high pressure zone over the Northeast and a front moving down (SE) from the Rockies that will combine to at least slow the normal grand curve to the NE.

That's why all of the computer models (a/o 4PM CDT Sun)are showing a sharp left turn or almost a complete reversal of direction down into central Texas after landfall. (in fact none of them show Gustave making it as far north as Oklahoma although one model shows a bounce off the TX/OK border)

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_model.gif

Davian93
08-31-2008, 04:29 PM
So basically NOLA is screwed and Gil and Co will be flooded out....that sucks.:(

Cary Sedai
08-31-2008, 05:02 PM
I hope Gil & co aren't flooded out, but I would like some rain to hit Austin.... sorry. I need it. Ivhon wants it, too. More than likely Gil & co won't be flooded out because they are north (I think Sini is, too..).

Terez
08-31-2008, 05:44 PM
Why are they calling it a Cat 4 if it's at 115?

I'm happy cause mom decided not to bring the TV. :D

Bryan Blaire
08-31-2008, 06:26 PM
We're not likely to get a lot of flooding here in our area unless all the lakes and drainage ditches in the neighborhood just suddenly fill to the top, and even then, the water has to go through other peoples' houses first. We've got flood insurance and supplies (although no sandbags yet, though I may get desperate, dunno), so I'm not too worried.

However, we do have a wet-land smack dab in the middle of the subdivision, so I'm wondering what might crawl up out of that during this thing, and the neighborhood terrorist armadillo may get flooded out of his annoyingly comfy little burrow.

Sei'taer
08-31-2008, 06:28 PM
where are they predicting it to go after it hits land? Hopefully not thius way We cannot handle the rain from a storm like that in Memphis, unless it dissipates a lot. We're having flash flood warnings from small rains because everything is so saturated.

Bryan Blaire
08-31-2008, 06:30 PM
Most of the tracks show it hooking its way into Texas, either just north of Houston, or possibly farther north in East Texas.

Weird Harold
08-31-2008, 07:51 PM
Why are they calling it a Cat 4 if it's at 115?

I'm happy cause mom decided not to bring the TV. :D
Gustav hasn't strengthened as much as expected after it passed over Cuba. As late as this morining, the five day forcast graphics posted in this thread were showing it as a Cat 4 right up to landfall around 2AM Tues.

It's moving faster and not building as quickly as expected, so it's currently projected to make landfall south of Baton Rouge at around 2PM Monday as Cat 3.

Weird Harold
08-31-2008, 07:58 PM
where are they predicting it to go after it hits land? Hopefully not thius way We cannot handle the rain from a storm like that in Memphis, unless it dissipates a lot. We're having flash flood warnings from small rains because everything is so saturated.
Bookmark post 29 in this thread: http://www.theoryland.com/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=16755&postcount=29

The graphics will keep updating until Gustave drop back below a tropical depression.

The third graphic hasn't shown any tracks going towards Memphis -- the only one model that showed any tendency taht direction showed a wide hook through Oklahoma and Nebraska and off towards Chicago was yesterday and the other five models showed the same "bounce" off the front sweeping SE out of the Rockies at the OK border. It now pretty much agrees that the Front is going to block any NorthEast movement of the remains.

Sodas
08-31-2008, 10:14 PM
The models obviously replaced that cat 4/5 figure as the storm never fully recovered after Cuba. I'm just glad that the winds are down.

The questions in reguards to NOLA seems to be storm surge and the western levee's of the city. But I'm thinking it's going to move west, maybe hitting Houston and all the oil refineries out there.

Weird Harold
08-31-2008, 10:44 PM
The questions in reguards to NOLA seems to be storm surge and the western levee's of the city. But I'm thinking it's going to move west, maybe hitting Houston and all the oil refineries out there.

By the time it loops back to rain on Houston -- if it doubles back that sharply -- it's going to be not much worse than the rains they had earlier this summer.

NOLA looks like it's going to dodge this particular bullet unless Gustav makes a sudden shift to the NE by at least 30 miles -- that would bring the hurricane force winds and maximumize the storm surge north of Grand Isle.

According to the Weather Channel's graphics, the Hurricane force winds extend 60 miles from the eyewall and tropical storm force winds extend 160-170 miles. The current projection (10 PM CDT Sun) is for the eye to pass just under 100 miles southwest of NOLA at it's closest approach.

Houma, Baton Rouge and Lafayette are going to get the hurricane force winds from this one.

Weird Harold
09-01-2008, 08:19 PM
By the time it loops back to rain on Houston -- if it doubles back that sharply -- it's going to be not much worse than the rains they had earlier this summer.

NOLA looks like it's going to dodge this particular bullet unless Gustav makes a sudden shift to the NE by at least 30 miles -- that would bring the hurricane force winds and maximumize the storm surge north of Grand Isle.

According to the Weather Channel's graphics, the Hurricane force winds extend 60 miles from the eyewall and tropical storm force winds extend 160-170 miles. The current projection (10 PM CDT Sun) is for the eye to pass just under 100 miles southwest of NOLA at it's closest approach.

Houma, Baton Rouge and Lafayette are going to get the hurricane force winds from this one.
As soon as Terez checks in, we can all breathe a sigh of relief for New Orleans and most of the Gulf Coast.

Houma, Morgan City, and that area up through Baton Rouge and Lafayette did take the brunt of the storm and damage was minimal. The levees and seawalls held in NOLA and if Mississipi and Alabama manged to survive the tornados Gustav generated the worst seems to be over.

Terez
09-01-2008, 09:58 PM
Well, like I said, I'm an hour inland. But even still, we got practically jack shit from it - just some rain and some not-very-impressive wind. The storm surge in Gulfport, where my mom lives, is less than 10 ft.

the silent speaker
09-01-2008, 10:40 PM
I heard about some Dem who made acrack about this storm being God's punishment of the Republicans. (No link, sorry.) So yeah, the Rove quote page 1 was an appalling thing to say, but both sides of this particular political aisle are just as bad as each other.

Terez
09-01-2008, 10:49 PM
lol...that would have been a crack at Pat Robertson, rather than a crack at the people actually suffering from the storm, or even Republicans in general, for that matter. :)

Gilshalos Sedai
09-02-2008, 10:59 AM
Michael Moore said it, IIRC.


And we got jack from THIS hurricane. Hitting the Houston/Galveston area is worse than a bank shot in pool.

Bryan Blaire
09-02-2008, 06:16 PM
We get NOTHING!

Terez
09-02-2008, 08:14 PM
It's still raining here. Probably will be for a while...

Crispin's Crispian
09-03-2008, 10:53 AM
We heard from my wife's dad. No damage, not much of anything. I do know that the beachfront properties in his town got flooded out, but that's about the extent of it.

Good news. I wonder if he'll change his mind about wanting to live there, though.

Terez
09-03-2008, 05:37 PM
We heard from my wife's dad. No damage, not much of anything. I do know that the beachfront properties in his town got flooded out, but that's about the extent of it.

Good news. I wonder if he'll change his mind about wanting to live there, though.
One nice thing about Gulfport is that there are no beachfront properties. There are "beachfront properties", but they're across highway 90 from the beach. :D So little surges like this one don't hurt much...