View Full Version : Tarmon Gai'don: Analysis of The Last Battle

01-19-2013, 02:38 PM
So I started this in another forum and then thought I might as well repost it in a place where people are likely to find it of some interest, and be likelier to poke holes in my notes.

01-19-2013, 02:40 PM
Next, I'll reference the conclusions of the Military Roundup Analysis as of Towers of Midnight done by Linda Taglieri. You can find the original here (http://13depository.blogspot.com.es/2002/03/military-forces-of-westlands.html) and here (http://wotfaq.dragonmount.com/node/136).


-Rand & Allied

Aiel: Speculated 420,000, down from 485,000 (max number under Rand's command). The number is believed to contain several thousand channeler Wise Ones.

Andor: Maximum theoretical strength of less than 200,000. Actual figure less because of civil war, trolloc invasion, Elayne being a twat and Black Ajah spamming some balefire. 125 or so channelers available during KoD.

Tear: Speculated strength of 90,000. Forces sent to Merrilor, but with the local ruler determined to keep a good part of his forces for defense of his territory.

Cairhien: Speculated number of 30,000. Over 10,000 known to be present when Elayne claimed the throne.

Illian: Speculated strength of 80,000.

Perrin's Army: 70,000 (incredibly varied, including the Children of the Light) at the end of ToM. He was still recruiting, though. 6 Wise Ones, 3 Aes Sedai, 2 Asha'man.

Lan's Army: 12.000 (at the end of ToM).

Arad Doman: Ituralde started the Saldaea campaign with 50,000, but took massive losses during ToM. 100 Asha'man formerly assigned to his forces.

Asha'man: Speculated over 700 (but at least 100 are actually Dreadlords with Taim).

Band of the Red Hand: Over 30,000.

Borderlands: Gathered a ginormous joint army of 200,000 soldiers, leaving only token garrison forces behind. Present at least in part in Merrilor. Used to have 13 Aes Sedai.

Legion of the Dragon: Speculated over 70,000.

Bashere's Light Cavalry: 8,000. In Merrilor.

Sea Folk: Numbers unspecified. Sizable contingent of female channelers.


100,000 in North Altara as of KoD.

Over 300,000 being gathered in Arad Doman as of TGS. 200 damane.

Speculated 100,000 in army near Illian.

Unspecified number of lesser armies of 10,000-15,000 in Shaido hunting duties.

Unspecified numbers of damane, but several fucktons of them.

-White Tower

50,000 soldiers from the Salidar army.

Unknown, possibly up to 50,000 from the Tar Valon army.

220 Aes Sedai, post Black Ajah purge. Unknown numbers of Accepted, over a thousand novices.

-Peasant Army

5,000 guys who just showed up in Merrilor.


Speculated 30,000


Have had quite enough of all this shit and are going back to the Waste, thankyouverymuch.


Hundreds of thousands of Shadowspawn all over the Blightborder, 150,000 in Tarwin's Gap.

Less than 150 Black Ajah, following the Purge.

100+ Asha'man with Taim.

5 Forsaken.

1 Superfade.

1 Sealed Evil In A Leaky Can


Padan Fain, turning trollocs into zombies somewhere in the Blight.

01-19-2013, 02:41 PM

After proclaiming Elayne Trakand overall commander of the Light, on the basis of "Rand said so", they started making arrangements.

Step 1 was sending a relief force to Tarwin's Gap, where Lan's army had managed to hold this route out of the Blight for a day, at the cost of losing some 6,000 soldiers out of the 12,000 they started with.

The Borderlander forces in Merillor were swiftly deployed through gateways turning what Lan thought a suicide charge of 6,000 into a much scarier charge of 100,000. With them came an undetermined number of Asha'man that Lan immediately assigned to Heal his wounded and guard his camp.

Back in Merillor, it was decided to send delaying forces against the two large shadowspawn armies out of the Blight, in Kandor and Shienar, and crush with overwhelming force the Shadow army in Caemlyn (assumed to be the smallest because of the restrictions of the Ways), while preparing a strike force for the Dragon's attack against Shayol Ghul.

Having decided that there was some kind of omen in the four battlefronts matching the number of surviving Great Captains, Agelmar called dibs on the Tarwin front, Gareth Bryne decided to take Kandor, Bashere called Caemlyn and Ituralde got stuck with Shayol Ghul.

As it turned out, this plan... did not work out too terribly well.

01-19-2013, 02:41 PM
So initial disposition of forces and armies, with commanding figures and noteworthy members, as far as I can remember.

Tarmon Gai'don

Stage 1 - From Start of Conflict to Attack of the Sharan Horde & Invasion of Thakan'dar


Overall commander - Elayne Trakand

BATTLEFRONT 1 - TARWIN'S GAP / SHIENAR (12-14 days of fighting)

Dai Shan - Lan Mandragoran

Commander - Agelmar Jagad

Army of the Golden Crane : 6,000 (down from original 12000)
Borderland Armies (Saldaea, Arafel, Kandor, Shienar) : ~100,000, plus reinforcements
*Tenobia of Saldaea, Paitar of Arafel, Ethenielle of Kandor, Easar of Shienar
Aes Sedai: 1
*Coladara, Deepe Bhadar, Antail
Asha'man : 5
*Jahar Narishma
Approximately two weeks into the battle, Lan has 14 channelers total after getting reinforcements from Egwene, one of them Merise.


Darkspawn Army #1: ~150,000 during Lan's first clash, plus reinforcements
Dreadlords: "Maybe as many as two dozen" (arrived 5-6 days after start of fighting).
"At least three dozen", plus "one full circle" possibly controlled by Taim (arrived through Travel upon Rand appears in the battlefield).

BATTLEFRONT 2 - KANDOR ("Over a week" of fighting)

Commander - Gareth Bryne


Army of the White Tower
*Jimar Chubain
Aes Sedai: "Over a hundred" with "every angreal and sa'angreal" owned by the White Tower.
*Egwene al'Vere
Illianer Companions
Dragonsworn (including some Aiel, some Aes Sedai).
Kandor Refugees : "A fair number of fighting men".


Darkspawn Army #2: Numbers unknown, but they outnumber Bryne's army.

BATTLEFRONT 3 - CAEMLYN / BRAEM FOREST (10-12 days of fighting)

Commander - Davram Bashere

Queen's Guard :
*Birgitte Silverbow
*Charld Guybon
Siswai'aman: Many
Ogier : All Ogier capable of fighting.
Perrin's Army
*Tam al'Thor
Wise Ones : 6
Legion of the Dragon : "Two full banners".
Band of the Red Hand
*Talmanes Delovinde
Dragons : "Nearly a hundred".


Darkspawn Army #3: "Tens of thousands, but probably not hundreds of thousands" (best guess from Talmanes). Probably optimistic, all things considered.

BATTLEFRONT 4 - SHAYOL GHUL (forces uncommitted, but prepared in the Field of Merrilor).

Commander - Rodel Ituralde

Aiel (including Maidens and most Wise Ones)
Arad Doman
*Darlin Sisnera


Overseer - Faile

Logistics hub in the Field of Merrilor
Food brought from Tar Valon, Cairhien, Tear.
Metal/power from Baerlon.


Yellow Ajah
All White Tower Accepted & Novices
*Rosil Sedai

Based in Mayene

01-19-2013, 02:42 PM
So timeline of conflict as well as can be determined.

Day 0

Lan and the army of the Golden Crane engage trolloc forces in Tarwin's Gap, seize the pass and mount a defense.

Trolloc forces reach Caemlyn through the local Waygate and take the city by storm. The Band of the Red Hand fights to save its newly created artillery.

Day 1

Meeting in the Field of Merrilor.

Borderlands Army moves Travels to Tarwin's Gap.

Strategy meeting to determine distribution of forces.

Day 2

Elayne's Army Travels to the proximities of Caemlyn. Burning of Caemlyn. Elayne's forces move towards Braem Wood.

Day 2 or 3

After "two days of gruelling battle", Agelmar determines that the Shadowspawn forces in Tarwin's Gap are too numerous to hold and starts plan for an ordered withdrawal.

Day 4-6

Egwene's army Travels to the border between Kandor and Arafel, "a few days" after Elayne's departure.

Before Day 10

Perrin leads a raiding force that makes the Caemlyn Shadowspawn Horde abandon the ruins of the city.

Elayne's forces reach Braem Wood.

Taim leaves the Black Tower.

Some two dozen Dreadlords join the Shadowspawn in Tarwin's Gap at dusk.

*Caemlyn Shadowspawn Horde makes contact with Elayne's army at the edge of Braem Wood.

Day 14-16

Egwene's army has fought several minor skirmishes, but no major engagements, against the Kandor Shadowspawn Horde over the week after its deployment.

*Mat reaches Ebou Dar.

*Borderland Army is forced to abandon Tarwin's Gap. Rand tries to deal with Dreadlords and kills two, but is driven away by sheer numbers. In the night of the same day, he talks with Lanfear in his dreams.

Meanwhile, in Braen Wood, Perrin asks Wise Ones about entering TAR in the flesh. Is told to avoid such things.

*Egwene's Army engages the Kandor Shadowspawn Horde and give them a bloody nose through channeler spam.

Before Day 20

Elayne's forces have been fighting in Braem Wood for a week (10 days). Bashere suggests a withdrawal towards the Erinin river to prepare a more effective resistance when the Shadowspawn try to cross the river.

Rand's forces begin reconnaisance of Shayol Ghul, preparing their assault.

Perrin leaves his forces under the command of Tam al'Thor, Travels to Merrilor and then to Shayol Ghul where he persuades Rand to open a gateway to T'A'R. Perrin enters the dreamworld along with Gaul.

*Perrin disables the dreamspike in the Black Tower with Lanfear's "help". This results in Taim being driven from the Black Tower.

*Mat breaks into the Tarasin Palace during the night, saves Tuon from Grey Man assassin, gets teh sex as reward.

*Rand visits Tam in Elayne's camp, in the easternmost edge of Braem Wood, then goes back to Merrilor for a chat with Moiraine, before deciding that he is going to solve the Seanchan issue.

*After four days of retreating without combat, Lan stages a counter-attack that is blunted early by the return of a majorly pissed Taim to the frontlines.

*Rand shows up in Ebou Dar early in the morning after Mat's break-in, finds Mat and Tuon still naked in the garden. Tuon persuaded to join the forces of the Light in Tarmon Gai'don.

Before Day 30

Egwene's forces have been fighting in the Kandor-Arafel border for a week (10 days). Following confirmation of Asha'man Dreadlords from Lan, Egwene decides to recall a number of Aes Sedai who apparently have been camping right outside the Black Tower for a long while (wtf?). Leilwin warns Gawyn NOT to use the ter'angreals he picked from Seanchan assassins.

*Rand joins Elyane's army, which has crossed the Erinin and is preparing a second crossing of the Alguenya, and spends a few hours burminating trollocs. This completes a plan to let himself be seen in each of the major battlefields, to distract the Shadow from his true intent of storming Shayol Ghul.

*Lan's forces retreat to the proximities of a place called Blood Springs, where Agelmar intends to launch a new counter-offensive.

*After the crossing of the Alguenya, Elayne's Army has been operating outside the borders of Andor for a week (10 days). At this point, they discover a second Trolloc army (henceforth designated Cairhien Horde) north of their position, marching towards Cairhien. It is unclear whether it is a new force or a fraction of the Caemlyn Horde that took a different, very harsh route to outmaneuver and overtake the human forces (as speculated by the characters). It is decided to destroy the Cairhien Horde, before it can take the city, recover from the presumed effects of the march or rejoin the Caemlyn Horde.

*Rand meets with Egwene and discovers that the Seals have been stolen and replaced with fakes.

*Seanchan forces concentrate in Ebou Dar, before heading for the frontlines.

*The day after meeting with Rand, following a partial Trolloc withdrawal and 36 hours of rest, Egwene's army marches against the positions of the Kandor Trolloc Horde. After some combat, Egwene withdraws to her camp with some other Aes Sedai. Then, the Sharans show up.

*At the same time, more or less, Rand finally begins the assault against Shayol Ghul.

01-19-2013, 02:43 PM

Because of the particular conditions in Shayol Ghul (including severe temporal distortions that turn days near there into three or four for the rest of the world), it gets its own dedicated post.

Forces - Light

In the Pit of Doom
Rand al'Thor + Moiraine + Nynaeve
Alanna (busy being murdered)

Right outside the Pit of Doom
Thom Merrilin - Last line of defense


Commander: Rodel Ituralde
Replacement commander: Darlin Sisnera
Commander of channelers: Aviendha

-Wise Ones capable of channeling
*Aviendha, Amys, Melaine, Sorilea,
-Some siswai'aman
Aes Sedai (sworn to Rand): "Some three dozen"
*Cadsuane, Nesune, Bera Harkin, Sarene, Faeldrin, Kiruna, Rafela, Sashalle Anderly
Asha'man: 6 + "two dozen" "of various ranks"
*Awlsten, Damer Flinn
Domani Army
*Alsalam Saeed Aldamar
-Crossbowmen: "Thousands"
Tairen Army
*Darlin Sisnera
-Crossbowmen: "A full banner" with a new kind of crossbow
-Defenders of the Stone
*Rodrivar Tihera
Dragonsworn: "Large numbers", "thousands"
-Some Aiel
-Some Aes Sedai and Warders
-"A couple" Asha'man
Seanchan: 1
Sea Folk: 100+ (mostly working support).
-Windfinders. Stuck using the Bowl of the Winds to counter the Dark One's weather manipulation.
Wolves: "Hundreds".
*Elyas Machera

Not much cavalry.

Wolf Spirits: Hundreds.

Forces - Dark

In the Pit of Doom

Shadow-forgers of Thakan'dar
Myrddraal: Lots ("hundreds upon hundreds").
Trollocs: Lots of lots.
Dreadlords: "By the dozen"
-Black Ajah: 7+
*Duhara, Falion, Jeaine Caide
-Samma N'Sei channelers: 20+

Samma N'Sei
*Unidentified channeler woman in white

Samma N'Sei
-Turned Aiel channelers: 2
-Other: 8+


ID (Invasion Day)

Aiel warriors deploy in numbers from both sides of the valley of Thakan'dar, catching the Shadowspawn garrison in between. Then they move to seize the narrow pass that gives access to the valley itself, where they find stiff resistance.
Teams of channelers kill the shadow-forgers and demolish the forge of Thakan'dar.
As Rand and his team enter the Pit of Doom, there is a total eclipse.
Graendal and some Dreadlords try to provide artillery support for the Shadowspawn, but are driven away by Aviendha's channeler strike force.
A second wave of invaders (the Tairens and Domani) Travel through gateway to consolidate positions.
Rand's forces manage to secure the valley and fortify the pass (barely wide enough for a column fifty men wide to cross it) with teams of archers (mostly Aiel) in the heights above the pass. Tairens are left to hold the exit of the pass with pike formations.
When a major Trolloc horde tries to get into the valley, the defenders let them get to midway through the pass and then start throwing logs at them from high above, then let them run into the first of a series of seven thornbushes (20 ft high, 8 ft deep) and start throwing crap again (rocks, arrows, logs) with some channeling throw in to disrupt defensive efforts. The result is thousands of dead Shadowspawn.

Meanwhile, in the Pit of Doom, Perrin intercepts Slayer and after frustrating an assassination attempt from TAR deploys a dreamspike to protect Rand from gateways or TAR attacks.

ID + 5

Trollocs finally make their way through the pass, Ituralde tries to hold them in the valley mouth.

Defenders have built "fortifications" (chest-high earthen bulwarks)

Ituralde has also split his army into groups of three thousand men each, arming them with pikes, billhooks or crossbows depending. Mounted crossbowmen for skirmishing, pikemen for vanguard, polearms for reserve. A dozen such groups contain the trollocs during the night.

Then, a large Myrddraal strike force ("hundreds upon hundreds") attacks and forces its way through the defenders. Before Ituralde can give retreat orders that could have compromised the entire defense, however, wolves sent by Perrin join the fight against the Fades and Elyas

Eventually, this force retreats into the pass when Aviendha and the channelers initiate a counterattack.

ID + "many"/"several days"

An hour before dawn, Aviendha detects Graendal channeling near the tent of Darlin Sisnera, gets accidentally captured by Samma N'Sei, then rescued by Cadsuane, then manages to locate again and scare away Graendal.

At the same time, dozens of Dreadlords attack in the camp and there is a major trolloc attack in the pass. Aviendha and other channelers decide to go hunting for Dreadlords.

After Darlin Sisnera hears that he almost got Compulsed, it is decided to sacrifice clever strategy, leave the battlefield to the initiative of the individual unit commanders and hold.

ID + "many"/"several days" + 1

Samma N'Sei (channelers and mundanes) attacks starting the previous night continue without pause into the night.

At the same time, Trollocs continue their attack and manage to capture some of the defenses, although Domani/Tairens manage to partially contain them, while a second force guards the campsites and access to Shayol Ghul and the Pit of Doom. Aiel bands of both sides duke it out all over the valley.

Graendal manages to ambush several channelers linked to Aviendha. Kills Kiruna, Faeldrin and Vitalien; enslaves Sarene; mutilates Flinn. Following her escape, Cadsuane, Sorilea and Aviendha ascertain that she is using True Power (therefore identifying herself as a Forsaken) and decide to make a concerted effort to hunt her down.

ID + "many"/"several days" + 1 + "days"

Aiel vs Samma N'Sei engagements continue.

Meanwhile, a second all-Myrddraal attack force followed by a major Trolloc attack manages to force the defenders out of the Mouth of the Valley. Tairens and Dragonsworn regroup towards the west of the valley, near the base of Shayol Ghul itself, facing a Shadowspawn force numerically equivalent to themselves.

Regardless, the battlefield is a confusing mess in which scattered groups of both sides clash without much overall strategy in either side.

Rhuarc is enslaved by Graendal while roaming the battlefield to hunt isolated enemies and joins a group of "several Wise Ones and a pair of Aes Sedai".


A tempest dominates the battlefield, despite Windfinders having withdrawn towards the top of Shayol Ghul, to keep struggling against the Dark One's weather control away from the battlelines. However, with near 2/3rds of them collapsed from exhaustion, the end draws nigh.

With the battlefield a total morass of confusion (the last coherent group a formation of Dragonsworn preparing a final defense near the entrance of the Pit of Doom), "scores" of Darkhounds enter the valley through the pass and head towards Shayol Ghul despite the wolves attempting to slow them down.

Aviendha runs into Graendal and her circle of enslaved channelers, and alerts Cadsuane and Amys with a pre-arranged signal. After dodging weaves for a while, the others arrive and join the fight against the Forsaken.


Darkhounds advance through the valley, tearing anyone and anything in their path, excluding the final defenders gathered around the path to the Pit of Doom.

Aviendha continues a running battle against Graendal, along with Amys, Cadsuane, Talaan of the Windfinders and Alivia. Eventually, while the others fight Graendal, Aviendha manages to kill Graendal's enslaved bodyguards (including Rhuarc) and stabs the Forsaken with a spear just as she was about to Travel away. As a result, Aviendha goes along for the ride and reappears elsewhere in the valley. There, an attempt to do a kamikaze unravelling of a Gateway results in Graendal's Compulsion weave backfiring.

Reality in general suffers a large scale breakdown with effects equivalent to a valley-wide bubble of evil, until the clouded sky turns into the ying/yang symbol of the Aes Sedai and vegetation starts growing all over the place.

From his seat next to the Pit of Doom, Thom Merrilin watches the battlefield and notes that the south side of the valley is covered by a mist that the wind doesn't budge. He has slept five or six times since his arrival to the valley, but is unsure of how many days that represents (and proximity to the source of temporal distortion doesn't help in terms of chronology). Afterwards, he muses that approximately one in ten of those who arrived to the valley remain at this point and then kills with a knife Jeaine Caide, who tried to enter the Pit of Doom disguised as Cadsuane. This being the fifth individual he has dispatched like thus.

Mashadar/Padan Fain/Shaisam rants about its mighty mightiness and future plans while it wanders towards the Pit of Doom, sending forth tainted Shadowspawn to contaminate the remaining souls in the valley.

Mat arrives to Thakan'dar with Olver, having used Travel to go from Merrilor to a Seanchan camp a day away from the valley, and a to'raken to fly the distance. After realizing the situation, they crashland after being attacked by Samma N'Sei. Olver blows the Horn of Valere and summons the Heroes.

Roughly at the same time, Perrin finally defeats and kills Slayer. After hearing that Darlin Sisnera's command position was destroyed by Draghkar, he organizes a final defense against the Wild Hunt along with some Aiel, when the Horn of Valere summons the spirits of dead wolves for the Last Hunt and saves the hour.

Mat reaches Perrin just ahead of Mashadar and, upon discovering his resistance to the effects of the mist, ambushes and kills Padan Fain who dies as a minor note.

Then, Moridin is fatally tricked in the Pit of Doom, the Dark One is defeated and Lanfear dies in TAR for being an utter retard of titanic proportions and trying to force Perrin to backstab everything ever, starting with making him kill a friend.

And so ends the battle and this post to which I've devote much too much time and effort.

01-19-2013, 02:44 PM

From Sharan Arrival to Retreat to Merrilor

Sharan Army
*Bao the Wyld/Demandred
-Infantry: "Thousands".
-Ayyad (female channelers): "Hundreds".
-Male channelers: 1+

Sharan Arrival Day (SAD)

-Sharans arrive through an absurdly gigantic gateway formed right behind the Aes Sedai base camp. Sharan channelers devastate the camp, while the entire army deploys and puts Egwene's forces between the Kandor Trolloc Horde and themselves. Egwene manages to escape by hiding for over an hour with Gawyn's Warder cloak.
Later, parts of Egwene's Army manage to retreat through gateways to a new position in Arafel, east of the river border. Survivors of the day include slightly over half of the conventional troops and around 250 Aes Sedai, with 120 or so Aes Sedai lost in combat. Confirmed casualties of the day include Romanda.

-Egwene and Gawyn try to escape from the former Aes Sedai camp, witness Demandred arriving through True Power Travel and hear him proclaiming his identity. Leane also turns out to be still alive and is discovered by Demandred who decides to use her to send LTT a message, challenging him to a duel. Eventually, Egwene and Gawyn make their escape with help from Leilwin and Bayle Domon during the night, Skimming to Tar Valon.

Invasion Day -1 (possibly same as SAD)

Rand sends Min to Egwene and reveals that he asked the Seanchan to deploy near the Aes Sedai forces out of a feeling that the Kandor front would prove critical.

*Lyrelle, an Aes Sedai sent to the Black Tower to bond forty seven Asha'man as a result of previous agreements, is allowed entry into the Tower to bond volunteer. This happens after being denied entry for days, bubbles of evil (three), Darkfriend murder attempts (two) and Egwene sending word of Taim's true allegiances.
The channelers Land got as reinforcements were Aes Sedai of her group and only a few stayed behind to keep an eye in the Black Tower. Finally, an undetermined number of days after Perrin's removal of the dreamspike and the victory of Logain's faction, the Asha'man decided to honor the agreement and, despite their wariness, Lyrelle summoned a group of 30-37 Aes Sedai to do the bonding (including Myrelle, Seaine, Faolin and Theodrim).
It is noted that Logain is not well, but that he is expected to make a complete recovery within the next couple of days.
These events happen during SAD or the next couple of days. The arrival of the Sharan army is known, but no clear details are available.

*Graendal is seen messing around in Ituralde's tent in the TAR equivalent of Merrilor, so this might be the night of ID -1. Lanfear claims that she has spent a week (10 days) watching Perrin in TAR. Timeline placement not entirely certain.

Invasion Day

-Rand goes to Shayol Ghul. See relevant post for more details.

-Lan's army continues its retreat across Shienar with sporadic fights with the trollocs that have resulted in tens of thousands of dead Shadowspawn in exchange for thousands of human casualties. In spite of the Borderlander Army being almost completely cavalry and the scorched earth tactics used in the retreat, the trollocs seem to be catching up. The eclipse seen after Rand's entry to the Pit of Doom is witnessed.

-Elayne's army has managed to make it to Cairhien just ahead of the Cairhien Trolloc Horde thanks to the combination of gateway travel and quick marching (though at the cost of exhausting into uselessness the Kin channelers). Also, though her army is somewhat numerically greater than the Cairhien Horde, the troops are noted to be exhausted. Shortly before the start of battle, the eclipse is witnessed.
Two hours from sunset, the same day, fighting continues and Elayne is taken to camp after collapsing from exhaustion. Her army has managed to resist the charge of the Cairhien Horde and Aiel have encircled the shadowspawn from behind, leaving them trapped. However, at this point, the Caemlyn Horde is seen to the south of Cairhien coming fast.
When Bashere hears news of this, he starts proposing unworkable plans as a result of the Compulsion and it is revealed that he has been messing with the reports of the scouts. Believing him a Darkfriend, Elayne relieves him from duty and commands that the artillery and archers be redeployed to bombard the Caemlyn Horde as it approaches.
The Cairhien Horde is eventually finished and the bulk of the troops starts re-deploying for combat with the Caemlyn Horde, which has already engaged the Ogiers/Wolf Guard/Legion of the Dragon (forces sent to shield the archers and artillery), but as a result of hours of heavy combat the troops are exhausted and defeat seems certain.
Finally, when the day seems just about lost, Logain shows up with over one hundred Asha'man and reveals that the Shadow had intended the pincer attack for a long time, according to documents found in the Black Tower. Elayne initially wants to retreat through gateways thinking that a hundred channelers cannot possibly stop a hundred thousand Trollocs on their own, but gets a miracle when Androl uses a circle of twenty six channelers to open a gateway a hundred feet wide that connects the battlefield with the magma chamber of Dragonmount and which drops several metric craptons of lava in front of the trollocs, followed with a couple more for good measure.
This gives them a few hours that Elayne intends to use to regroup, recover and then destroy for good the Caemlyn Horde.
After the battle, it is reported that Elayne's army lost half of her troops.

*Mat, Tuon and the Seanchan forces gathered in Ebou Dar receive word of the crushing defeat suffered by the White Tower's armies at the hands of the Sharans, thanks to to'raken scouts sent ahead. Might happen during SAD or the next couple of days.

*Min arrived with Rand's letter at some point between SAD and SAD + "few days"

SAD + "few days"

Seanchan make their presence known by putting to'raken scouts in the sky.

Egwene returns to the front-lines. Her army is redeployed in the southeastern tip of Kandor and holding a ford that gives access to Arafel. The army has been followed by the Sharans, who have been giving time for the Kandor Trolloc Horde to catch up, but there have been no major engagements yet.

*Lan fights the trollocs when Dreadlords appear, only for his channelers to try to strike directly at them. Action seems to continue from the battle he was involved in during Invasion Day, probably same day even. He also sees a mistake in the orders when two different units try to close a gap in the battle lines.
An undisclosed time later (but likely the same day), Lan starts figuring that the mistakes follow a pattern that is likely to leave the Borderlands Army exposed to total destruction and goes to confront Agelmar, altering some orders at a critical time. It is noted that Lan has been fighting for "weeks" (20+ days) with the Malkieri of the army of the Golden Crane.
Agelmar is relieved of duty and Lan's orders prevent a total collapse destruction of the Borderlands Army when a previously unengaged Shadowspawn force appears from the east. In spite of this, the army is cornered and faces overwhelming odds, making it clear that the campaign is lost and that they will suffer massive losses during the retreat. Among others, Queen Tenobia of Saldaea dies.

*Egwene meets with Tuon. They reach a precarious agreement to collaborate during the battle and further define the Seanchan situation under the Dragon's Peace. Happens during SAD + "few days" or shortly after it.

*Gareth Bryne, now reinforced by an undetermined number of Seanchan damane, still holds the ford and thinks that everything is more or less going according to plan, surprisingly enough. Because of a temporary lack of cavalry, he has to send Min to the Seanchan camp to ask for reinforcements. This happens a week (10 days) or more after Min's arrival to Egwene's camp, which makes it Invasion Day + 9 or later. As a result of this, Min becomes Tuon's Truthspeaker and Doomseer.
Same day, a cavalry charge that was supposed to assist Aes Sedai defensive positions ends in disaster when the cavalry runs into a bunch of pike-armed Trollocs and the Sharan cavalry exploits the resulting gap to tear the enemy infantry a new one. The Aes Sedai gate away and some time later come back for a heavy duty channeling bombardment.
Little later, Mat (who has gone check the battlefield himself) finds the Seanchan cavalry they had provided earlier unused and with a big hole in the left flank of Egwene's forces, leads himself a cavalry charge to patch the situation as best as possible. So he charges, wrecks the Sharan heavy cavalry, captures a channeler and upon returning to the Seanchan lines realizes that the battle is about to be lost through what seem deliberate bad choices of Gareth Bryne. He decides to claim immediate command of both armies, no objections wanted.
Towards the afternoon, Egwene decides to send a messenger to Elayne who was supposed to fight her battle in Cairhien (timeline discrepancy!!!) and, after getting news of Bashere's arrest as suspected Darkfriend, confronts Gareth Bryne who admits to make mistakes he shouldn't be making. He is removed as commander of the armies and it is decided to send word to Lan and Thakan'dar in case the other great captains are also affected. Realizing that any replacement could also fall prey to Compulsion, Egwene eventually agrees to putting Mat in joint command.
Afterwards (possibly the same day), Mat commits additional Seanchan forces and observing the battle from above through use of horizontal gateways, determines that the position in the ford has become untenable, making a withdrawal advisable. He arranges for a meeting through gateways with the Aes Sedai leadership who have since learned of the status of the other great generals. Lan is reported to have lost nearly two thirds of his troops, with Elayne, Logain and the Asha'man going to Shienar to help him evacuate, and Ituralde is reported lost in battle (timeline discrepancy!!!). After a brief conference with Elayne and Egwene, Mat proposes a joint last stand in the Field of Merrilor.

All armies withdraw to the Field of Merrilor for a last stand. Trollocs are expected to come knocking within a few days, a week at most.

01-19-2013, 02:57 PM
TL DR (well I skimmed)

The first thing that popped out at me was your estimate on the Aiel numbers. Rand MIGHT have had that many when he initially crossed the Dragonwall but he's probably lost a good 3rd of them to battles and the Bleakness. I'd put it closer to 300K by the time of the Last Battle.

01-19-2013, 03:06 PM
TL DR (well I skimmed)

Use Traveling instead, it's faster. :D

The first thing that popped out at me was your estimate on the Aiel numbers. Rand MIGHT have had that many when he initially crossed the Dragonwall but he's probably lost a good 3rd of them to battles and the Bleakness. I'd put it closer to 300K by the time of the Last Battle.


Those troop numbers aren't mine actually.

As I comment at the beginning of that post, the figures come from the analysis done by the 13th Repository folks, which has also made it into the WOT FAQ at Dragonmount.

Whether the figures be accurate or not, I only use those values for reference.

01-19-2013, 03:16 PM
Fair enough...I just recall us (Theoryland) having that discussion several times and arriving at a far lower number along the lines of the "remnant of a remnant" surviving.

As to the rest, it seems fairly accurate though I didnt go over it in detail.

Rand al'Fain
01-19-2013, 03:56 PM
So, any idea what happened to the other 100,000 Borderland troops?

01-19-2013, 04:37 PM
So, any idea what happened to the other 100,000 Borderland troops?

Either were deployed later (Lan is noted to be getting reinforcements, some hours after the moment he leads a charge of 100,000) or were elsewhere in the Blight.

Not the entire army of 200,000 went to Merrilor and at least the Kandor contingent had better things to do than head for Tarwin's Gap, at least until Egwene moved to relieve them.

Rand al'Fain
01-19-2013, 05:39 PM
Either were deployed later (Lan is noted to be getting reinforcements, some hours after the moment he leads a charge of 100,000) or were elsewhere in the Blight.

Not the entire army of 200,000 went to Merrilor and at least the Kandor contingent had better things to do than head for Tarwin's Gap, at least until Egwene moved to relieve them.

Okay, so out of 200,000, maybe 50,000 were Kandori (rough estimate) and probably 150,000 Borderlanders otherwise.

So, probably 300,000 Shadowspawn were at Tarwin's Gap. Add in Lan's small army, you have about 156,000 soldiers that are/could be committed to the Gap, plus any that would volunteer/wandered their way to their camps. Normally, that's a really good sized force. But against the Trolloc hordes, yikes.

I think estimates for total Trolloc hordes could be around 1 million, by the battle of Maradon (easily more).

But if the battle at Merrilor and Shayol Ghul is any indication, it looks like the Trollocs and shadowspawn may have been almost wiped out. Probably a few bands here and there, but it's probably safe to say that there won't be anymore Trolloc hordes for the forseeable future.

01-19-2013, 06:36 PM
I think estimates for total Trolloc hordes could be around 1 million, by the battle of Maradon (easily more).

At the time of Maradon? Easy.

Caemlyn was supposed to be the small trolloc horde of the four fought by the Light during AMOL.

Well, the second trolloc group to hit Cairhien apparently had one hundred thousand or so shadowspawn. And that was in addition to the first, possibly larger, group and the many, many, many casualties suffered during literally weeks of fighting, two river crossings, the fighting when they took Caemlyn and all the rest.

Personally, I'd say millions plural, though how many exactly we can't really know.

01-19-2013, 07:10 PM
Just a note on the Borderlanders.

You said they left only a token force home.

Actually, Ethenielle said they left back home enough to deal with anything short of the Trolloc Wars coming again.. which happened.

Those forces likely joined them or Lan, increasing their armies.

You also said that "King Darlin" was determined to leave a lot of his forces to defend Tear. That was indeed his intent, and he had made a deal with Egwene for Traveling, but Rand's conditions invalidated that. As far as we know, the whole force of the Defenders fought in LB, no part of the forces were sent back home.

Nice work, by the way. I've skimmed through it for now, but it will be very useful when I get to make my military maps.

01-19-2013, 07:11 PM
Just a note on the Borderlanders.

You said they left only a token force home.

Actually, Ethenielle said they left back home enough to deal with anything short of the Trolloc Wars coming again.. which happened.

Those forces likely joined them or Lan, increasing their armies.

You also said that "King Darlin" was determined to leave a lot of his forces to defend Tear. That was indeed his intent, and he had made a deal with Egwene for Traveling, but Rand's conditions invalidated that. As far as we know, the whole force of the Defenders fought in LB, no part of the forces were sent back home.

Nice work, by the way. I've skimmed through it for now, but it will be very useful when I get to make my military maps.

Yup, basically what he said.