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Terez
03-14-2017, 07:30 PM
Is Geert Wilders going to win tomorrow?

Kimon
03-14-2017, 08:08 PM
Is Geert Wilders going to win tomorrow?

It sounds like even if he gets the largest share of the vote, that he won't have anywhere near enough to form a coalition government on his own, and no other party will work with him to do so.

Usual caveats on growing concerns with (in)accuracy of polling in the days of Brexit and Trump, but...

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-14/wilders-party-slumps-in-shock-dutch-poll-on-eve-of-election

The prospect of Geert Wilders emerging as the winner of Wednesday’s Dutch election was thrown into doubt by two polls on the eve of voting that showed his anti-Islam, anti-European Union Freedom Party slumping to fifth place in one survey and third in another.

The final poll from I&O Research showed Wilders’s party on 16 seats in the 150-member lower house of parliament, down four seats from a survey released just the day before. The last Ipsos survey before the election gave the Freedom Party 20 seats, a drop of three from last week. Both polls showed Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s Liberals gaining three seats -- to 27 and 29 respectively.

Davian93
03-14-2017, 08:35 PM
Is Geert Wilders going to win tomorrow?

As a country that already had a white nationalist as our President, it'll be nice to not be alone among the ostracized nations of the West.

Terez
03-15-2017, 04:03 AM
I'd rather be alone honestly. Let's not make this the new normal.

GonzoTheGreat
03-15-2017, 04:19 AM
Is Geert Wilders going to win tomorrow?
Depends on how one defines "win", I hope.

I suspect that whatever the outcome, Wilders will call it a win.
I would be very surprised if he got as many as a quarter of the seats in parliament, which still wouldn't be anywhere near enough to form a government on his own. Getting between 35 and 40 seats would be comparable to what the current two coalition parties each have.
If he did get 20 seats (out of 150 total), then that would be a huge increase over his current 12, but still less than the 24 he had in the elections before that.

All in all, the only thing he does, the only thing he can do, is make noise. He's very good at that, though, I admit.

Edited to add: The PVV actually has 15 seats. I have no idea why the English Wiki page on our parliament says it has 12 seats. I also don't know why the Dutch Wiki claims the PVV has 12 seats in one part of the page and (correctly) that it has 15 seats in another part. Maybe the English version is based on the incorrect Dutch one, of course. Or vice versa.

ShadowbaneX
03-15-2017, 10:01 AM
I'd rather be alone honestly. Let's not make this the new normal.

Misery loves company, T.

Davian93
03-15-2017, 04:11 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39285803

Exit polls having the Nazi walking away with 19 seats but well behind the PM's party who will have 31 seats.

So...good news then hopefully?

Terez
03-15-2017, 05:58 PM
It's late there so I guess we won't get real results until tomorrow.

Sarevok
03-16-2017, 03:02 AM
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39285803

Exit polls having the Nazi walking away with 19 seats but well behind the PM's party who will have 31 seats.

So...good news then hopefully?

at 95% counted, we've got results for the moderate right PM at 33 seats, Wilders at 20, christian democrats and progressive right at 19, far-left and left+greens at 14 and the established moderate left at a historical low of 9. (out of 150 seats total)
https://nos.nl/data/image/2017/03/16/361527/xxl.jpg

The only possible coalition I could see happening would be center right + some christian parties.

Nazbaque
03-16-2017, 04:00 AM
Pretty big win for the green party. Tripled their previous seats. Or were the four seats unsually low and they just got back their previous loss?

Sarevok
03-16-2017, 04:22 AM
GroenLinks (GreenLeft) are back up from taking a pretty bad hit last elections, but 14 is still an all-time high. Highest previously was 11 in 1998.
Keep in mind that PvdD (Party for Animals) is also a green and leftist party, but with more emphasis on the green, where GreenLeft has more emphasis on the left.

Nazbaque
03-16-2017, 04:35 AM
GroenLinks (GreenLeft) are back up from taking a pretty bad hit last elections, but 14 is still an all-time high. Highest previously was 11 in 1998.
Keep in mind that PvdD (Party for Animals) is also a green and leftist party, but with more emphasis on the green, where GreenLeft has more emphasis on the left.

Two green parties huh. So are they at odds with eachother over their differences or allies with different priorities but the same ultimate goal?

Sarevok
03-16-2017, 04:47 AM
Two green parties huh. So are they at odds with eachother over their differences or allies with different priorities but the same ultimate goal?

More likely to be allies, but PvdD is a new kid on the block, so we'll have to see. The previous elections were the first where they got any seats, and with only 2, they had to pick their battles.

Update on seats: with 97% counted, no changes to the previous one I linked.

Nazbaque
03-16-2017, 05:16 AM
More likely to be allies, but PvdD is a new kid on the block, so we'll have to see. The previous elections were the first where they got any seats, and with only 2, they had to pick their battles.

It's more that they made statements on which side they were on rather than actually hoping to effect the outcome. Advertising for the next election as it were. Seems to be working.

Sarevok
03-16-2017, 05:23 AM
It's more that they made statements on which side they were on rather than actually hoping to effect the outcome. Advertising for the next election as it were. Seems to be working.

No, they actually did try to get stuff done. But a 2-man party just can't get much stuff done. :)

Davian93
03-16-2017, 08:34 AM
Looks like it will be exceedingly hard for them to form a government given those splits.

Sarevok
03-16-2017, 08:52 AM
Looks like it will be exceedingly hard for them to form a government given those splits.

Yup, but we're kinda used to that by now. The record is 207 days. :)

Update on votes at 99,2% counted: same as above, except there is a chance PvdD might lose 1 seat to 50Plus.

Davian93
03-16-2017, 09:46 AM
One US political blog I followed had the following as the most likely coalition:

VVD: 33
CDA: 19
D66: 19

Total: 71 (5 short of a majority)

So they'd need to find 5 more seats out of the rest which sounds like it'd be hard. Maybe the 50+ party if they got to that 5th seat. The CU also has 5 seats but they're not exactly a natural ally of those other 3 either. Maybe the PvdD? Again, not a natural ally.

They said the PvDA would be the most logical but that that might not happen due to them getting destroyed this time around.

Is that all ridiculous or do they have any clue how Dutch politics work?

Sarevok
03-16-2017, 10:09 AM
One US political blog I followed had the following as the most likely coalition:

VVD: 33
CDA: 19
D66: 19

Total: 71 (5 short of a majority)

So they'd need to find 5 more seats out of the rest which sounds like it'd be hard. Maybe the 50+ party if they got to that 5th seat. The CU also has 5 seats but they're not exactly a natural ally of those other 3 either. Maybe the PvdD? Again, not a natural ally.

They said the PvDA would be the most logical but that that might not happen due to them getting destroyed this time around.

Is that all ridiculous or do they have any clue how Dutch politics work?
Sounds about right. I actually give them going with the Christian Union the best chance, because 50+'s plan for pensions and such seems to be abit unrealistic, while at the same time 50+ probably won't budge on that, because it was their main point in the campaign.

The only other possibility I see (short of VVD breaking a campaign promise and going with PVV anyway), would be a center + left coalition of 6, with D66/CDA/GL/SP/PvdA/PvdD, but that's unlikely.

Can you link that blog? Outside perspectives on the whole thing are interesting. :D

Davian93
03-16-2017, 11:03 AM
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2017/Pres/Maps/Mar16.html#item-8

Enjoy.

Its a center-left perspective for the most part and it stays pretty analytical for US election/political events.

Sarevok
03-16-2017, 11:25 AM
Had a read through the analysis. Seems mostly correct, except that it seems to be conflating CU and SGP on hard-line christianity. I had to go look up CU's stances on abortion and euthanasia and it seems that they don't want to get rid of it completely, but do wanna dial it back a bit.
Edit to add: it's also not 100% percent true that any party pulling out would mean immediate new elections. Sometimes it's been possible to form a new coalition with the sitting MPs. (it's rare, though)

Sarevok
03-16-2017, 01:33 PM
To complicate matters, you have to keep in mind that the coalition will prefer to have a majority in the 1st chamber (senate), too. Whatever 2nd chamber does, they'll have to deal with the 1st chamber to approve any laws they make.
Current 1st chamber (total 75 seats):
VVD: 13
CDA: 12
D66: 10
PVV: 9
SP: 9
PvdA: 8
GL: 4
CU: 3
PvdD: 2
SGP: 2
50Plus: 2
OSF: 1
VVD/D66/CDA+CU would have a majority by 1 seat, +50Plus would not.

Davian93
03-16-2017, 02:55 PM
So...the CU could demand from pretty ridiculous concessions in such a scenario then. The tail wagging the dog so to speak.

Sarevok
03-16-2017, 03:13 PM
So...the CU could demand from pretty ridiculous concessions in such a scenario then. The tail wagging the dog so to speak.

Partially true. On the other hand, if they ask to much, VVD might just tell them to get lost and ask someone else.

Sarevok
03-24-2017, 10:39 AM
Just came across something interesting (not sure if anyone else cares, but I'm sharing it anyway). Here's what the Dutch elections would have looked like if we had voting districts. Moderate right would have one by a land-slide. Interestingly, in 2012, Social-democrats would have only barely lost (69 vs 81 seats).
top: actual results; bottom: fictional voring districts.
https://nos.nl/data/image/2017/03/24/363550/xxl.jpg

GonzoTheGreat
03-24-2017, 11:12 AM
Lots of people think that voting districts are a good idea. I've never understood why.

Terez
03-24-2017, 12:39 PM
Lots of people think that voting districts are a good idea. I've never understood why.
It's just a way of diminishing majority rule.

Davian93
03-24-2017, 01:12 PM
To be fair, using a proportional system like the Dutch currently do is far more "democratic" than winner take all districts. It leaves room for far more minority parties to gain seats.