Taking odds on plot points for TGS
So, I think I'm pretty up on what's going to happen in TGS; though, I'd like to test my own predictions. I have this tendency to forget what I've falsely predicted and dwell on what I get right.
To counteract this I'm going to lay odds on plot/character developments and bet some fixed sum and see if I come out ahead. However, I can't think of everything and I may need a reality check on some numbers so I hope others will have some input. Mostly, I can't think of, or remember, everything so please include anything I miss or object to certain odds. For how the odds work, think WIN : BET to understand. Hence, 100:1 means bet 1 and get 100 (+1: original bet) if you're right (unlikely), whereas 1:100 means bet 100 and get 1 (+100: original bet) if you're right (likely). Remember, these are only for TGS, some things are unlikely to happen only within this book, others unlikely to happen ever. Shadow: 1:3  75% Likelihood  Asmodean's killer revealed/confirmed (Dragonmount's Statements and Brandon Sanderson's Asmodean enthusiasm.) 1:2  33% Likelihood  Granedal or Ar'angar betrays the other. 5:1  16.7% Likelihood  Graendal is killed/captured (Proximity to Rand and his need for mental health expert) 5:1  16.7% Likelihood  Ar'angar is killed/captured 5:1  16.7% Likelihood  Semi is forced, in some fashion, to reveal information and/or teach the AS what they want to know (There will be no assistance...EVAR!) 15:1  6.25% Likelihood  Mesanaa's AS ident revealed/confirmed. 20:1  4.8% Likelihood  Mesanaa is killed/captured (Thank You Oatman for your loving, tactful correction) 50:1  4.8% Likelihood  Cyndane is killed/captured 50:1  1.9% Likelihood  Moghedian is killed/captured 50:1  1.9% Likelihood  Demondred is killed/captured 100:1  0.9% Likelihood Moridin is killed/captured 10^100:1  Statistically Impossible  A Forsaken purposefully betrays DO Rand: 1:7  88% Likelihood  Rand is captured by Graendal &/ Ar'angar. 1:3  75% Likelihood  Rand is psychologically tortured by Graendal. 1:3  75% Likelihood  Rand's lost hand facilitates capture or serious injury 1:2  75% Likelihood  Rand collared in some way 1:2  67% Likelihood  Rand's eyesight is fully restored 1:2  67% Likelihood  Rand's paranoia alienates Min or Avi or Elayne 1:2  67% Likelihood  Rand is captured by Seanchan 2:1  33% Likelihood  Rand enlists Ituralde 2:1  33% Likelihood  Rand loses control to LTT because of deliberate attempts by Graendal 5:1  16.7% Likelihood  Rand temporarily loses "rainbow connection" w/ Mat 5:1  16.7% Likelihood  Rand meets with Borderlanders 5:1  16.7% Likelihood  Rand and LTT "merge" (Within the TGS Timeline) 20:1  4.8% Likelihood  Rand and Egwene meet again 20:1  4.8% Likelihood  Rand and Perrin meet again 40:1  2.4% Likelihood  Rand and Moraine meet again 40:1  2.4% Likelihood  Rand and Mat meet again 40:1  2.4% Likelihood  Rand is taught Cadsuane's lesson 40:1  2.4% Likelihood  Rand returns to Black Tower 40:1  2.4% Likelihood  Rand willingly goes to Seanchan 200:1  0.5% Likelihood  Rand's hand physically restored 10^100:1  Statistically Impossible  Rand allies with Elaida 10^100:1  Statistically Impossible  Rand has no PoV time in TGS 10^100:1  Statistically Impossible Rand joins the Dark One Mat: 1:20  95% Likelihood  Mat curses w/in ToG (Light!) 1:20  95% Likelihood  Mat enters ToG w/ Thom & Noal 1:20  95% Likelihood  Mat finds Moraine 1:20  95% Likelihood  Mat has dice in head in ToG 1:5  83% Likelihood  Mat has multiple dice in head in ToG 1:5  83% Likelihood  Mat surrenders physical eye 1:5  83% Likelihood  Mat surrenders figuratave light of world 1:3  75% Likelihood  Mat gives 1/2 light of world to save Moraine 1;3  75% Likelihood  Mat gives 1/2 light of world for specific knowledge/wisdom 1:3  75% Likelihood  Mat takes Moraine out of ToG 1:3  75% Likelihood  Mat remembers interior of ToG from old memories 1:3  75% Likelihood  Mat swears "Light" > 15 times 10:1  9.1% Likelihood  One of Mat's party dies in ToG 10:1  9.1% Likelihood  One of Mat's party is left in ToG 10:1  9.1% Likelihood  Mat emerges from ToG and weeks have passed for everybody else 20:1  4.8% Likelihood  Mat takes item out of ToG 20:1  4.8% Likelihood  Mat is reunited w/ Rand or Perrin 40:1  2.4% Likelihood  Mat is reunited w/ Tuon 40:1  2.4% Likelihood  Mat loses hat in ToG 40:1  2.4% Likelihood  Mat loses Spear or Medallion in ToG 50:1  1.9% Likelihood  Mat leaves ToG w/ a pet Finn 50:1  1.9% Likelihood  Mat does not curse w/in ToG 10^100:1  Statistically Impossible  Mat has no PoV time in TGS 10^100:1  Statistically Impossible  Mat is killed in ToG 10^100:1  Statistically Impossible  Mat joins the Dark One Perrin: 1:20  95% Likelihood  Perrin meets with Galad 1:20  95% Likelihood  Perrin discovers Morgase's identity 1:5  83% Likelihood  Perrin enlists Whitecloaks 1:5  83% Likelihood  Perrin is relieved when Berelain ignores him for Galad 1:5  83% Likelihood  Perrin is hurt/offended when Bere ignores him for Galad 1:3  75% Likelihood  Perrin is jealous when Faile is attracted to Galad 1:3  75% Likelihood  Perrin refuses to let Faile out of his sight 10:1  9.1% Likelihood  agrees to submit to the Andoran crown 20:1  4.8% Likelihood  is considered shadowspawn by Galad 20:1  4.8% Likelihood  discovers WC guilt in family's death 20:1  4.8% Likelihood  meets with the Borderlanders 20:1  4.8% Likelihood  had no PoV time in TGS 40:1  2.4% Likelihood  is captured by Galad's WCs 40:1  2.4% Likelihood  killes Biar, Bornhold, or both 50:1  1.9% Likelihood  Perrin is reuinted with Mat or Rand 50:1  1.9% Likelihood  Perrin does not see Dane Bornhold 50:1  1.9% Likelihood  Perrin engages WC army 100:1  0.9% Likelihood  Perrin leaves Faile for Berelaine 10^100:1  Statistically Impossible  Perrin kills Faile 10^100:1  Statistically Impossible  Perrin is killed by the WCs 10^100:1  Statistically Impossible  Perrin joins the Dark One Egwene: 1:5  83% Likelihood  Egwene is made Amerlyn of united tower 2:3  60% Likelihood  Egwene continues her silent resistance throughout the book (This implies a lack of significant behavioral shift, this is implied to be false in chapter 2) 2:3  60% Likelihood  Egwene is punished severely, think birched, for not acknowledging Elaida as Amerlyn 1:2  67% Likelihood  Egwene gains control (Via Oath or Coersion) of some or all of Elaida's Sitters 5:1  16.7% Likelihood  Egwene bonds Gawyn 5:1  16.7% Likelihood  Egwene finds out about BA hunt 10:1  9.1% Likelihood  Egwene is NOT untied Amerlyn before Seanchan Attack 20:1  4.8% Likelihood  Egwene unmasks Mesanaa 20:1  4.8% Likelihood  Egwene poisons Elaida :) 20:1  4.8% Likelihood  Egwene is Amerlyn before Seanchan attack 30:1  2.3% Likelihood  Egwene is made Amerlyn because of actions during Seanchan Attack 30:1  2.3% Likelihood  Egwene gains control of BA hunters 50:1  1.9% Likelihood  Egwene renounces love for Gawyn 10^100:1  Statistically Impossible  Egwene joins BA 10^100:1  Statistically Impossible  Egwene has no PoV time in TGS Misc (Characters): 1:5  83% Likelihood  Aviendha is impregnated 5:1  16.7% Likelihood  Aviendha gets Rand's paranoia under control 20:1  4.8% Likelihood  Aviendha beats Rand's attempts to separate from the girls out of him 1:4  80% Likelihood  Elayne has no PoV time in TGS 5:1  16.7% Likelihood  Elayne has conversation with Elaida 5:1  16.7% Likelihood  Elaida attempts to capture Elayne 20:1  4.8% Likelihood  Elayne and Aviendha reunite 50:1  1.9% Likelihood  Elayne reunites w/ Rand 1:3  75% Likelihood  Elaida is deposed, stilled, and/or killed 5:1  16.7% Likelihood  Elaida is deposed for witholding weaves from Hall 10:1  9.1% Likelihood  Elaida is deposed for absence (Traveling away) during a crises 10:1  9.1% Likelihood  Elaida is deposed for drunkenness 10:1  9.1% Likelihood  Elaida is deposed for stupidity 30:1  2.3% Likelihood  Elaida is renounced as BA 50:1  1.9% Likelihood  Elaida stops drinking 100:1  0.9% Likelihood  Elaida dies heroically 10^100:1  Statistically Impossible  Elaida acquires common sense 1:3  75% Likelihood  Alviarin discovers the BA hunters 3:1  25% Likelihood  Alviarin is revealed as BA 3:1  25% Likelihood  Alviarin runs from the Tower 3:1  25% Likelihood  Alviarin rejoins the Light (hai Powerslave) 10:1  9.1% Likelihood  Alviarin is caught 20:1  4.8% Likelihood  Alviarin is killed/stilled 5:1  16.7% Likelihood  BA hunters find Alviarin 10:1  9.1% Likelihood  BA hunters turn against Elaida 20:1  4.8% Likelihood  BA hunters come under Egwene's control 2:3  60% Likelihood  Siuan and Bryne finally share feelings/make love/marry 20:1  4.8% Likelihood  Siuan is stilled again :( 10:1  9.1% Likelihood  Leanne is stilled again :( 2:3  60% Likelihood  Lan arrives at Tarwin's Gap with a massive army (Again, TGS Timeline) 30:1  2.3% Likelihood  Lan dies in Tarwin's Gap 10^100:1  Statistically Impossible  Lan joins the Dark One 1:20  95% Likelihood  Gawyn continues to be bitter and angry 1:5  83% Likelihood  Gawyn is reunited with Egwene 1:3  75% Likelihood  Gawyn submits to whatever Egwene's wishes are 1:3  75% Likelihood  Gawyn is informed of Elayne's struggle for the Lion Throne 1:2  67% Likelihood  Gawyn is informed of Elayne's ascension to the Lion Throne 3:1  25% Likelihood  Gawyn reunites with Egwene before she is the united Amerlyn 3:1  25% Likelihood  Gawyn assists in the removal of Elaida 10:1  9.1% Likelihood  Gawyn ceases to believe Rand killed his Mother 10:1  9.1% Likelihood  Gawyn is reunited with Elayne 50:1  1.9% Likelihood  Gawyn supports Elaida against Egwene 10^100:1  Statistically Impossible  Gawyn renounces love for Egwene 1:10  91% Likelihood  Verin has no PoV time during TGS 1:5  83% Likelihood  Verin is confirmed to be with or heading for the boarderlanders 1:3  75% Likelihood  Verin is confirmed to be at or heading toward the white tower 2:1  33% Likelihood Verin retrieves the Horn of Valere for Rand 3:1  25% Likelihood  Verin convinces Borderlanders to join Rand 20:1  4.8% Likelihood  Verin is revealed to be BA 30:1  2.3% Likelihood  Verin releases herself fromt he oath rod to cease her fealty to Rand 10^100:1  Statistically Impossible  Verin tells someone her plans Misc (Events): 1:3  75% Likelihood  Seanchan attack the WT 1:3  75% Likelihood  Black Tower civil war begins 2:1  33% Likelihood  Seanchan attack Arad Doman 3:1  25% Likelihood  Ogier decide to join in TG 20:1  4.8% Likelihood  Seals on DO's prison all broken 30:1  2.3% Likelihood  Seanchan agree to truce w/ Rand 10^100:1  Statistically Impossible  The red aijah takes it upon themselves to replenish the worlds supply of channelers and each vow to produce twenty children in the next fifty years :D So any input would be nice, if anybody else is interested I'll make a post in mid October to take bets for TGS and we can see who wins. Or, this might be one of the thousands of ideas that I come up with which turn out to be unbelievably lame. Edit: Okay, so here are the revamped odds. I've changed odds in response to posts so far so if there's something that gives you pause or that screams wrong post to lemme know. :D 
Quote:
As for the rest, wow, that was a lot. Do you offer any system as well? Quote:
Quote:

Quote:
I've changed the liklihood to 10:1 which is about 9.1% chance. Now, you think it's closer to 4:1 or 20% but I think that's altered because we've only had one DF return to the Light and never a black sister so Alviarin's case is adjusted. :D 
I'm sure there has been lots of DF turning to the Light over the years. Hence the expression "No one is ever so far gone into the Shadow that they can't go back to the Light."
And I'm sure there was lots of betrayals in the ranks of the Shadow during the AoL. Perhaps a third age black Sister has yet to turn, but with Asmodean turning, I don't see anything of impact derived from the fact that a Third Age Black Ajah have yet to turn. That aside, I do appreciate the revision of the odds. ;) 
Quote:
I'll probably just give myself $10k and $10 minimum bet, then fill a board and see how I did after I finish TGS. 
That would be fun to do across the board. If we could perhaps boil it down to 20 or so predictions (something not too heavy). Let everyone use say 1000 gold crowns and distribute their bets over whatever predictions they want to bet on. Then set a date you will freeze all bets and calculate the odds (according to how popular that bet is of course). Then after tGS you calculate winnings.
AND THEN we see who the HCFF MASTER really is. :p 
That's more or less what I wanted to do, if people are interested.

Quote:
Quote:

Addition?
I still vehemently believe that one of the trusted characters will be revealed as a Dark Friend or worse.
Odds on any of these? Egwene Elayne Min Aviendha Mat Perrin Faile Nyn Lan Thom Siuan  c'mon, most of you know this one in particular is my crazy idea Leane Cadsuane Verin Rhuarc Bashere 
Quote:
...You'll have to give me odds of your own to be more resonable but from my own opinion, past precedence, and personal impressions I'll give 250:1 (0.4% likelihood) for Cadsuane and Verin, 500:1 (0.2% likelihood) for Rhuarc, Bashere, Siuan, and Leane, and 10^100:1 (statistically impossible) for the rest. To justify Siuan to you, since I see you like the theory, I don't see why Galima would have been so proud to depose a Black Amerlyn, nor do I see why Mesanaa would want to depose a Black Amerlyn, nor Alvianin, who is supposed to know the name of every black sister, etc. But tell me how likely you think it is they're darkfriends, in odds or percentages, and we can compromise for the board. 
The 13+13 trick only works on those who can channel. Does that also include the ones that have been temporarily blocked from the OP, for example because they're shielded or stilled?

Quote:

Man, your odds are WAY off on a lot of these. To start with the top, you have Graendel and Aran'gar, one who is definitely active in Arad Domon, and the other one who is likely in Arad Domon, at worse odds of being caught or killed than Semi breaking or Messana being caught or killed.
Rand is currently in the Arad Domon, and Forsaken drop like flies around him. Semi is extremely strong willed and Rand is forbidding torture of any kind. She will not break. Messana is hiding among the AS, who with the exception of Moraine have proven to be as effective at fighting the shadow as I would be fighting a grizzly bear armed with a tooth pick. Even if she gets revealed, who is competent enough within the tower to catch her? Anyway, I can't really be bothered looking at the rest right now. 
Quote:
Though it would be funny if Faile had just been "assigned" to Perrin, and really was in love with Luc/Isam, and all the flirting in tSR was so much more. Kind of a Melindhralike situation. 
Quote:
But, that's neither here nor there. Quote:

Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Why isn't Lelaine or Maigan listed above, each of the Blue Ajah in Salidar? Their are not subject to disclaimer of being nonBlack Ajah that Alviarin Freidhen said about the Ajah Heads in the White Tower, when referring to Galina of the Red Ajah. Maigan only became the Blue Ajah Head after Anaiya was killed by Aran'gar. Maigan also was at Fal Dara when Padar Fain was freed too.... If you put odds on who Mesaana IS hiding as, now that would be interesting exercise. :D 
Quote:
If an a'dam doesn't work on Setalle Anan in Ebou Dar, I serious doubt a "burned out" channeller can be turned to the Shadow by the 13+13 method. "Severing" though is a different condition, but they cannot channel nor touch the source. So it's also different to see a "Severed" channeller being turned to the Shadow. The only different is a "Severing" can be healed to full now, by a channeller of the opposite sex. 
Quote:
Quote:

Creepybob, that is a very interesting list. Nice job.
As to Verin being a DF. I do not find that credible. RJ stated unequivocally that she was still under the oaths of the Oath Rod in the WT. I see no indication that she has changed since RJ made that statement. Verin is absolutely ruthless about what she sees as the necessity to get Rand to TG and in enough of a solid mental state to win. She knows that anything less and the Light will lose. Her almost killing of Cadsuane is, IMO, proof of this. It was only when Cadsuane revealed her intentions about Rand that Verin relented. Leane is a definite maybe. "What are the odds that you will be killed by a toilet seat from outer space?" George 
Quote:
RJ never said which particular Oaths Verin is under now from the Oath Rod, in any interview I know of. Quote:
The event with Cadsuane can also be interpreted as an attempt to knock off a competitor who wants to influence Rand's behavior & actions. Verin just knows that Rand is too stubborn to take directions nor advice directly, in the style which Cadsuane operates. Cadsuane hasn't been around Two Rivers men, and she doesn't know Rand as well as Verin does. Why kill an Aes Sedai, if her advice won't be followed nor influence Rand at all? Notice how Verin's behavior towards Rand has changed over the whole series? It's become increasing indirect, where Verin works though other people to attempt to influence Rand, so nothing ever sticks to Verin if it doesn't work. This method enables Verin to stay close & observe everything Rand does and says. This is also how Verin learns from an angry Min in KoD, that Rand let himself be bonded by three women: Elayne, Aviendha and Min. Shortly afterward Verin leaves Rand and the Tear Manor Estate for parts unknown. Which is similar to tGH, when Verin leaves the party of Aes Sedai with Siuan after she learns the Moraine left the group too. Verin however does have limits she does not foresee Moraine and Morgase's impact on Rand's harden heart (e.g. Chap. "Steel of Tears"). Cadsuane operating alone to soften Rand's Heart, Verin guesses correctly that she will fail in my view. Verin simply does not know where Morgase is nor if she's alive, nor does she know if Moraine is alive at all. But Verin can regain an indirect control over Rand, if say something happens to one of loves of his life: Elayne. 
All times are GMT 5. The time now is 03:39 PM. 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000  2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.