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Old 09-07-2009, 03:01 PM
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Default Taking odds on plot points for TGS

So, I think I'm pretty up on what's going to happen in TGS; though, I'd like to test my own predictions. I have this tendency to forget what I've falsely predicted and dwell on what I get right.

To counteract this I'm going to lay odds on plot/character developments and bet some fixed sum and see if I come out ahead.

However, I can't think of everything and I may need a reality check on some numbers so I hope others will have some input. Mostly, I can't think of, or remember, everything so please include anything I miss or object to certain odds.

For how the odds work, think WIN : BET to understand. Hence, 100:1 means bet 1 and get 100 (+1: original bet) if you're right (unlikely), whereas 1:100 means bet 100 and get 1 (+100: original bet) if you're right (likely).

Remember, these are only for TGS, some things are unlikely to happen only within this book, others unlikely to happen ever.

Shadow:
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Asmodean's killer revealed/confirmed (Dragonmount's Statements and Brandon Sanderson's Asmodean enthusiasm.)
1:2 - 33% Likelihood - Granedal or Ar'angar betrays the other.
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Graendal is killed/captured (Proximity to Rand and his need for mental health expert)
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Ar'angar is killed/captured
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Semi is forced, in some fashion, to reveal information and/or teach the AS what they want to know (There will be no assistance...EVAR!)
15:1 - 6.25% Likelihood - Mesanaa's AS ident revealed/confirmed.
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Mesanaa is killed/captured (Thank You Oatman for your loving, tactful correction)
50:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Cyndane is killed/captured
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Moghedian is killed/captured
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Demondred is killed/captured
100:1 - 0.9% Likelihood- Moridin is killed/captured
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - A Forsaken purposefully betrays DO

Rand:
1:7 - 88% Likelihood - Rand is captured by Graendal &/| Ar'angar.
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Rand is psychologically tortured by Graendal.
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Rand's lost hand facilitates capture or serious injury
1:2 - 75% Likelihood - Rand collared in some way
1:2 - 67% Likelihood - Rand's eyesight is fully restored
1:2 - 67% Likelihood - Rand's paranoia alienates Min or Avi or Elayne
1:2 - 67% Likelihood - Rand is captured by Seanchan
2:1 - 33% Likelihood - Rand enlists Ituralde
2:1 - 33% Likelihood - Rand loses control to LTT because of deliberate attempts by Graendal
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Rand temporarily loses "rainbow connection" w/ Mat
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Rand meets with Borderlanders
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Rand and LTT "merge" (Within the TGS Timeline)
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Rand and Egwene meet again
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Rand and Perrin meet again
40:1 - 2.4% Likelihood - Rand and Moraine meet again
40:1 - 2.4% Likelihood - Rand and Mat meet again
40:1 - 2.4% Likelihood - Rand is taught Cadsuane's lesson
40:1 - 2.4% Likelihood - Rand returns to Black Tower
40:1 - 2.4% Likelihood - Rand willingly goes to Seanchan
200:1 - 0.5% Likelihood - Rand's hand physically restored
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Rand allies with Elaida
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Rand has no PoV time in TGS
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible -Rand joins the Dark One

Mat:
1:20 - 95% Likelihood - Mat curses w/in ToG (Light!)
1:20 - 95% Likelihood - Mat enters ToG w/ Thom & Noal
1:20 - 95% Likelihood - Mat finds Moraine
1:20 - 95% Likelihood - Mat has dice in head in ToG
1:5 - 83% Likelihood - Mat has multiple dice in head in ToG
1:5 - 83% Likelihood - Mat surrenders physical eye
1:5 - 83% Likelihood - Mat surrenders figuratave light of world
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Mat gives 1/2 light of world to save Moraine
1;3 - 75% Likelihood - Mat gives 1/2 light of world for specific knowledge/wisdom
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Mat takes Moraine out of ToG
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Mat remembers interior of ToG from old memories
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Mat swears "Light" > 15 times
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - One of Mat's party dies in ToG
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - One of Mat's party is left in ToG
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - Mat emerges from ToG and weeks have passed for everybody else
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Mat takes item out of ToG
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Mat is reunited w/ Rand or Perrin
40:1 - 2.4% Likelihood - Mat is reunited w/ Tuon
40:1 - 2.4% Likelihood - Mat loses hat in ToG
40:1 - 2.4% Likelihood - Mat loses Spear or Medallion in ToG
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Mat leaves ToG w/ a pet Finn
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Mat does not curse w/in ToG
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Mat has no PoV time in TGS
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Mat is killed in ToG
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Mat joins the Dark One

Perrin:
1:20 - 95% Likelihood - Perrin meets with Galad
1:20 - 95% Likelihood - Perrin discovers Morgase's identity
1:5 - 83% Likelihood - Perrin enlists Whitecloaks
1:5 - 83% Likelihood - Perrin is relieved when Berelain ignores him for Galad
1:5 - 83% Likelihood - Perrin is hurt/offended when Bere ignores him for Galad
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Perrin is jealous when Faile is attracted to Galad
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Perrin refuses to let Faile out of his sight
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - agrees to submit to the Andoran crown
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - is considered shadowspawn by Galad
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - discovers WC guilt in family's death
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - meets with the Borderlanders
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - had no PoV time in TGS
40:1 - 2.4% Likelihood - is captured by Galad's WCs
40:1 - 2.4% Likelihood - killes Biar, Bornhold, or both
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Perrin is reuinted with Mat or Rand
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Perrin does not see Dane Bornhold
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Perrin engages WC army
100:1 - 0.9% Likelihood - Perrin leaves Faile for Berelaine
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Perrin kills Faile
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Perrin is killed by the WCs
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Perrin joins the Dark One

Egwene:

1:5 - 83% Likelihood - Egwene is made Amerlyn of united tower
2:3 - 60% Likelihood - Egwene continues her silent resistance throughout the book (This implies a lack of significant behavioral shift, this is implied to be false in chapter 2)
2:3 - 60% Likelihood - Egwene is punished severely, think birched, for not acknowledging Elaida as Amerlyn
1:2 - 67% Likelihood - Egwene gains control (Via Oath or Coersion) of some or all of Elaida's Sitters
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Egwene bonds Gawyn
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Egwene finds out about BA hunt
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - Egwene is NOT untied Amerlyn before Seanchan Attack
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Egwene unmasks Mesanaa
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Egwene poisons Elaida
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Egwene is Amerlyn before Seanchan attack
30:1 - 2.3% Likelihood - Egwene is made Amerlyn because of actions during Seanchan Attack
30:1 - 2.3% Likelihood - Egwene gains control of BA hunters
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Egwene renounces love for Gawyn
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Egwene joins BA
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Egwene has no PoV time in TGS


Misc (Characters):

1:5 - 83% Likelihood - Aviendha is impregnated
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Aviendha gets Rand's paranoia under control
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Aviendha beats Rand's attempts to separate from the girls out of him

1:4 - 80% Likelihood - Elayne has no PoV time in TGS
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Elayne has conversation with Elaida
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Elaida attempts to capture Elayne
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Elayne and Aviendha reunite
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Elayne reunites w/ Rand

1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Elaida is deposed, stilled, and/or killed
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Elaida is deposed for witholding weaves from Hall
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - Elaida is deposed for absence (Traveling away) during a crises
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - Elaida is deposed for drunkenness
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - Elaida is deposed for stupidity
30:1 - 2.3% Likelihood - Elaida is renounced as BA
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Elaida stops drinking
100:1 - 0.9% Likelihood - Elaida dies heroically
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Elaida acquires common sense

1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Alviarin discovers the BA hunters
3:1 - 25% Likelihood - Alviarin is revealed as BA
3:1 - 25% Likelihood - Alviarin runs from the Tower
3:1 - 25% Likelihood - Alviarin rejoins the Light (hai Powerslave)
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - Alviarin is caught
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Alviarin is killed/stilled


5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - BA hunters find Alviarin
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - BA hunters turn against Elaida
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - BA hunters come under Egwene's control

2:3 - 60% Likelihood - Siuan and Bryne finally share feelings/make love/marry
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Siuan is stilled again

10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - Leanne is stilled again

2:3 - 60% Likelihood - Lan arrives at Tarwin's Gap with a massive army (Again, TGS Timeline)
30:1 - 2.3% Likelihood - Lan dies in Tarwin's Gap
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Lan joins the Dark One

1:20 - 95% Likelihood - Gawyn continues to be bitter and angry
1:5 - 83% Likelihood - Gawyn is reunited with Egwene
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Gawyn submits to whatever Egwene's wishes are
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Gawyn is informed of Elayne's struggle for the Lion Throne
1:2 - 67% Likelihood - Gawyn is informed of Elayne's ascension to the Lion Throne
3:1 - 25% Likelihood - Gawyn reunites with Egwene before she is the united Amerlyn
3:1 - 25% Likelihood - Gawyn assists in the removal of Elaida
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - Gawyn ceases to believe Rand killed his Mother
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - Gawyn is reunited with Elayne
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Gawyn supports Elaida against Egwene
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Gawyn renounces love for Egwene

1:10 - 91% Likelihood - Verin has no PoV time during TGS
1:5 - 83% Likelihood - Verin is confirmed to be with or heading for the boarderlanders
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Verin is confirmed to be at or heading toward the white tower
2:1 - 33% Likelihood -Verin retrieves the Horn of Valere for Rand
3:1 - 25% Likelihood - Verin convinces Borderlanders to join Rand
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Verin is revealed to be BA
30:1 - 2.3% Likelihood - Verin releases herself fromt he oath rod to cease her fealty to Rand
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Verin tells someone her plans


Misc (Events):
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Seanchan attack the WT
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Black Tower civil war begins

2:1 - 33% Likelihood - Seanchan attack Arad Doman
3:1 - 25% Likelihood - Ogier decide to join in TG
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Seals on DO's prison all broken
30:1 - 2.3% Likelihood - Seanchan agree to truce w/ Rand
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - The red aijah takes it upon themselves to replenish the worlds supply of channelers and each vow to produce twenty children in the next fifty years


So any input would be nice, if anybody else is interested I'll make a post in mid October to take bets for TGS and we can see who wins. Or, this might be one of the thousands of ideas that I come up with which turn out to be unbelievably lame.



Edit:

Okay, so here are the revamped odds. I've changed odds in response to posts so far so if there's something that gives you pause or that screams wrong post to lemme know.
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Last edited by creepybob; 10-16-2009 at 03:10 AM.