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  #121  
Old 10-17-2011, 03:50 AM
GonzoTheGreat GonzoTheGreat is offline
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Problem is that Elayne only is not to blame if she had good reason to expect her enemies to behave precisely as she wanted them to.

To give a quote from the Belisarius series (by Eric Flint and David Drake):
"Never expect the enemy to do what you think he's going to do, and never expect that schedules will be met on time. And, most of all, always remember the first law of battle: everything gets fucked up as soon as the enemy arrives. That's why he's called the enemy."

Overlooking that once may be bad luck, though with her training, Elayne should have known better already. To make that mistake time and time again is just plain incompetence.

In the BA house case, she could have set up a far better and stronger perimeter guard.
In the case of the dungeon episode ... let's not go there, shall we? I do hope it isn't necessary to point out that what she did was not really all that smart. Starting out with keeping them prisoner there in the first place. She should've sent them by gateway to Egwene's camp immediately after capturing them.
Then there is her decision to call resistance to the Shadow rebellion. After all, that's what the TR mess amounted to: the locals fought back against the DO's forces, the Andoran crown did nothing, and Elayne is calling them rebels.

Last edited by GonzoTheGreat; 10-17-2011 at 03:53 AM.
  #122  
Old 10-17-2011, 04:39 AM
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Originally Posted by GonzoTheGreat View Post
Then there is her decision to call resistance to the Shadow rebellion. After all, that's what the TR mess amounted to: the locals fought back against the DO's forces, the Andoran crown did nothing, and Elayne is calling them rebels.
In her defense, I don't believe anyone bothered to tell her that there was an army of trollocs in the Two Rivers. All she knows is that some local guy started calling himself "lord" and waving the flag of Manetheren around.
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  #123  
Old 10-17-2011, 05:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Sarevok View Post
In her defense, I don't believe anyone bothered to tell her that there was an army of trollocs in the Two Rivers. All she knows is that some local guy started calling himself "lord" and waving the flag of Manetheren around.
In which case she might possibly have bothered to get some halfway accurate information first, instead of painting herself into a corner with a treason accusation.

She could have asked those Two River girls in Egwene's camp. She could have asked Galad, who had gotten the story by then from Byar, Perrin and others. She could have asked Morgase.
Instead, she decided she had enough to press formal charges, while it had been her side (the crown of Andor) which was actually culpable.
That's not a good sign of competence, is it?

To name a real world example:
You do not draw loaded guns in the presence of the president of the United States. Doing so if you're a US citizen could very well be considered treason. Yet, when that lunatic shot Reagan, some Americans did draw guns in Reagan's direct neighbourhood.
They actually had good reason; as they were Reagan's guards. But if you do not bother to do that bit of research, then all you have is "they waved guns around during an assassination attempt". If the US government had accused them of treason, then at least one DA would have looked amazingly incompetent.

Does that show why getting the facts straight before pressing charges is a good idea?
  #124  
Old 10-17-2011, 07:54 AM
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Originally Posted by GonzoTheGreat View Post
Does that show why getting the facts straight before pressing charges is a good idea?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_...d.27s_response
  #125  
Old 10-17-2011, 08:42 AM
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Originally Posted by GonzoTheGreat View Post
Overlooking that once may be bad luck, though with her training, Elayne should have known better already. To make that mistake time and time again is just plain incompetence.
Was Elayne trained in military/security matters. My understanding was that the First Prince of the Sword was the one who commanded the armies where as the Queen set policy. I could see her training dealing with politics, even if it was the watered down version practiced in Andor compared to say Cairhien and economics etc. She may even have been trained in the effect on the country of putting a lot of people in the army. What I am questioning is does she have any training or experience in actually organising a company level of soldiers.

Put it this way, if I had a degrees and experience in politics and economics and I suddenly became say President of the US would I know how to arrange say 200 soldiers around a building to provide security and cover from attackers within and without? Thats the sort of thing that I pay a Lieutenant or a Captain to do.

Elayne's error was on trying to pull off something risky that she had no training for and without bringing into the loop those who knew what they were doing like Bridgett. If fact given the purges that took place in the Queens' guard compitent officers may be in sort supply as all the experienced ones were retired or left and the ones that were left had to be promoted to fill the gaps higher up leaving a lack of experienced officers at more junior levels.
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  #126  
Old 10-17-2011, 09:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Enigma View Post
Put it this way, if I had a degrees and experience in politics and economics and I suddenly became say President of the US would I know how to arrange say 200 soldiers around a building to provide security and cover from attackers within and without? Thats the sort of thing that I pay a Lieutenant or a Captain to do.
Apparently, your not existing degree in politics actually really gives you the insight that if you're ignorant in certain matters, then you might do well to consult an expert.
Elayne did not have the knowledge to recognise her own ignorance, or the wisdom to act on that knowledge.

To be fair to her, I suspect that the majority of politicians in the real world don't have a higher level of competency. That would explain a lot, don't you think?
Still, she is portrayed as a very good leader. It might be nice if that was apparent by at least some common sense from her.
  #127  
Old 10-17-2011, 10:33 AM
David Selig David Selig is offline
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Then there is her decision to call resistance to the Shadow rebellion. After all, that's what the TR mess amounted to: the locals fought back against the DO's forces, the Andoran crown did nothing, and Elayne is calling them rebels.
No, she's calling them rebels because Perrin was declared Lord, kept using the banner of Manetheren (which used to include half of Andor) for months, and topped all of this by entering with a huge army on Andoran territory without asking anyone for permission.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Enigma View Post
Was Elayne trained in military/security matters. My understanding was that the First Prince of the Sword was the one who commanded the armies where as the Queen set policy. I could see her training dealing with politics, even if it was the watered down version practiced in Andor compared to say Cairhien and economics etc. She may even have been trained in the effect on the country of putting a lot of people in the army. What I am questioning is does she have any training or experience in actually organising a company level of soldiers.
She was trained by Bryne:
Quote:
KoD, Ch. 33

She had not trained with weapons, but she had received all of the other lessons Gawyn had gotten from Gareth Bryne. A queen had to understand the battle plans her generals gave her rather than simply accept them blindly.
I kind of doubt she had lessons how to deal with channellers and ancient superweapons though.
  #128  
Old 10-17-2011, 10:47 AM
GonzoTheGreat GonzoTheGreat is offline
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Originally Posted by David Selig View Post
No, she's calling them rebels because Perrin was declared Lord, kept using the banner of Manetheren (which used to include half of Andor) for months, and topped all of this by entering with a huge army on Andoran territory without asking anyone for permission.
According to the same reasoning, Elayne should acknowledge Fortuona as her Empress, and let herself be collared.
I don't think she'll go quite that far with being principled, though.

Quote:
I kind of doubt she had lessons how to deal with channellers and ancient superweapons though.
She did get that training in the Tower. And outside Falme, when she ran into more opposition than she'd expected. And in Falme, when she sprang Egwene free. And in Tear, when ...

All in all, she should have known that she could be outmatched. Even when she did not really know precisely how many opponents she might have to face.
  #129  
Old 01-19-2012, 02:20 AM
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Default Caemlyn + BT

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Originally Posted by Terez View Post

The Black Tower It looms large on the east side of the city, and there is craziness going down there as we speak. Taim may manage to turn as many as 2-300 channelers to the Shadow before his defenses are penetrated (including the Reds, the Asha'man, and the rebels sent by Egwene) though Min's viewing of Logain and Faolain give us some hope. The dreamspike is not only portable, but its area is adjustable. It may be that Caemlyn can be included within its affected area, which would make things difficult at best. Gateways might be the only feasible way to save the city from the Shadowspawn.
It is assured that Caemlyn can be included in the Dreamspike's radius:

Quote:
KoD: Chapter 17
"While the clerks and messengers were filing out, Elayne strode to one of the long tables where a map showed Caemlyn and its surroundings for at least fifty miles in each direction. Even the Black Tower had been inked in, a square sitting less than two leagues south of the city."
Quote:
ToM: Chapter 34
"Up ahead, Neald satt on a stumpnear the Traveling ground. During the last few days, the youthful Asha'man soldier and Gaul had scouted out in several directions at Perrin's orders, to see if gateways worked if ne got far enough away from the camp. Sure enough, it turned out they did, though one had to go for hours to escape the effect."
Quote:
ToM: Chapter 35
"So, instead, he shifted as far as he could. Neald had said it was about four leagues from their camp to the perimeter, so Perrin shifted that far to the north, then did so again, and again."
Quote:
KoD: Chapter 13
"This fight on the wall was not Arymilla's forst assault in recent weeks by far. In truth, the frequency was increasing,with three or four attacks coming some days, now. She knew very well that Elayne had insufficient soldiers to hold six leagues of wall."
The first quotes say that a Dreamspike can cover a radius of 'about' four leagues and that from Caemlyn to the BT it's 'less than 2 leagues'. So there are about 2 leagues to cover Caemlyn. As the length of the New City's wall is 6 leagues, the diameter of Caemlyn is also about 2 leagues. So, definitely the Dreamspike can cover Caemlyn.

The strategic advantage of denying reinforcements from the Light's side is simply too much IMO for the Shadow not to use it. Add that - if the Dreamspike is switched to full range just before the invasion - the alarm will not reach Merrilor immediately. Sure, Perrin and Rand will know very soon anyway, but at least for some hours it will be the Band with Talmanes (and Dragons) to carry the defense - if they can get inside and defend the Inner City or at least the Royal Palace. The Waygate is in the New City, so the Shadow's army is within the outer walls but not immediately within the inner wall circles. Then both sides have channelers to add to the chaos: Asha'man and BA from the BT, BA (Duhara) in Caemlyn, Forsaken for the Shadow; Kinswomen, captured Damane, Windfinders for the Light.

By many aspects, this fight will be the focus of the first part of AMoL. The trip to SG will have to wait the resolution of this - and of the White Tower/Seanchan topic.
  #130  
Old 02-17-2012, 04:32 PM
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Burn my soul, there may be a new theory about this.

I advise against reading this or any theory - it uses reasoning and logic based on facts and evidence, supported by references. Really, we should be relying on the words of those in authority.

However, the author does make it clear where this Ablar fellow has been hiding out, with Dreadlords attacking Maradon.
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  #131  
Old 02-17-2012, 04:43 PM
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Originally Posted by 1eyedfool View Post
It is assured that Caemlyn can be included in the Dreamspike's radius:









The first quotes say that a Dreamspike can cover a radius of 'about' four leagues and that from Caemlyn to the BT it's 'less than 2 leagues'. So there are about 2 leagues to cover Caemlyn. As the length of the New City's wall is 6 leagues, the diameter of Caemlyn is also about 2 leagues. So, definitely the Dreamspike can cover Caemlyn.

The strategic advantage of denying reinforcements from the Light's side is simply too much IMO for the Shadow not to use it. Add that - if the Dreamspike is switched to full range just before the invasion - the alarm will not reach Merrilor immediately. Sure, Perrin and Rand will know very soon anyway, but at least for some hours it will be the Band with Talmanes (and Dragons) to carry the defense - if they can get inside and defend the Inner City or at least the Royal Palace. The Waygate is in the New City, so the Shadow's army is within the outer walls but not immediately within the inner wall circles. Then both sides have channelers to add to the chaos: Asha'man and BA from the BT, BA (Duhara) in Caemlyn, Forsaken for the Shadow; Kinswomen, captured Damane, Windfinders for the Light.

By many aspects, this fight will be the focus of the first part of AMoL. The trip to SG will have to wait the resolution of this - and of the White Tower/Seanchan topic.
This looks good, but what if the gateways are opened on the side of Caemlyn opposite the BT? (and you may need to factor in Low Caemlyn) Especially since opening gateways directly in a place as densely populated as Caemlyn is risky at best
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  #132  
Old 02-17-2012, 06:54 PM
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I'm rushed atm, but can someone find that bit in ToM when Mat is entering Caemlyn and thinks how defensible its innards (-New City) are?

Ialso have baking hands lots butter
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  #133  
Old 02-18-2012, 04:12 AM
GonzoTheGreat GonzoTheGreat is offline
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Originally Posted by Lupusdeusest View Post
Ialso have baking hands lots butter
Good threat, that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToM, Chapter 8, The Seven-striped Lass
Mat glanced over his shoulder as the two of them crested a hilltop. Caemlyn was ablaze with the light of torches and lamps. Illumination hung over the city like a fog, grand spires and towers lit by the glow. The old memories inside him remembered this city-remembered assaulting it before Andor was even a nation. Caemlyn had never made for an easy fight. He did not envy the Houses that had tried to seize it from Elayne.
  #134  
Old 02-18-2012, 04:28 AM
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The Caemlyn palace was like another little city within the city inside the city. It had a low fortified wall, and while its peaks and spires rose into the air, it had more of the look of a war bunker than the Sun Palace did. Odd, how he had never noticed that when he was younger. If Caemlyn fell, this palace could hold on its own. They needed more barracks, though, within that wall. This camping out in the courtyard was ridiculous.
That was the passage I meant. Apologies about the "threat"; my hands were disgusting. I had two fingers free. We had our oven "fixed" the other day.
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  #135  
Old 02-18-2012, 04:34 AM
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Default I think she meant one of these...

Quote:
He strode through camp, nodding to a group of passing Redarms. He had doubled the watch. He was worried about the gholam, but also about the many military camps in the area. Half were mercenaries, half were the retainers of this minor lord or that, coming to pay respects to the Queen— suspiciously arriving after the fighting was done.

No doubt each and every one was professing his heartfelt allegiance to Elayne, explaining that his men supported her all along. Their words probably fell a little flat, since Mat had it on good authority from three separate drunks in taverns that Elayne had used Traveling extensively in recruiting her defense. It was easier to feign a delayed arrival when you were responding to a written message.
...
His procession passed numerous camps on the open plains around Caemlyn. All mercenaries were required to stay at least a league away, but the forces of the lords could camp closer. That put Mat in a rough place. There was always tension between sell-swords and loyal armsmen, and with the mercenaries so far from Caemlyn, fights were common. The Band was right in the middle of it.

He did some quick figuring based on the trails of campfire smoke he saw twisting into the air. There were at least ten thousand mercenaries in the area. Did Elayne know what a bubbling kettle she was brewing here? Too much heat, and the whole bloody thing would boil over!

Mat's procession drew attention. He had one of the men flying the banner of the Band of the Red Hand, and his men were developing a reputation. By Mat's count, they were the largest single group—mercenary or lord's force—outside Caemlyn's walls. They were as organized and disciplined as a regular army, and were under the leadership of a personal friend of the Dragon Reborn. His men could not help bragging about that, though Mat would much rather that they had kept quiet.
...
The march through the New City was uneventful save for more crowds watching. Would someone recognize his face from those drawings? Mat wanted to get off the main thoroughfares, but Caemlyn's narrow streets were a twisting mess. A force of fifty horsemen was too large to move through those streets.

They eventually passed through the brilliant white walls of the Inner City, where the roads were wider, the Ogier-built buildings less cramped, and the population thinner. Here, they passed more groups of armed men, including Guardsmen in white and red. Mat could make their camp out ahead, covering the gray paving stones of the courtyard with their tents and horselines.

The Caemlyn palace was like another little city within the city inside the city. It had a low fortified wall, and while its peaks and spires rose into the air, it had more of the look of a war bunker than the Sun Palace did. Odd, how he had never noticed that when he was younger. If Caemlyn fell, this palace could hold on its own. They needed more barracks, though, within that wall. This camping out in the courtyard was ridiculous.
...
Low Caemlyn was growing, and enterprising men had realized that providing rooms and drinks for the transients could make a healthy profit. So shanties had started to become taverns, and those had begun to grow into full inns.

Wood was in high demand, and many of the mercenary bands had taken to woodcutting. Some worked honestly, paying the Queen's levy for claims. Others worked less legally. There had already been hangings for it. Who would have thought? Men hanging for poaching trees? What next? Men hanging for stealing dirt?

Low Caemlyn had changed drastically, roads springing up, buildings being enlarged. A few years, and Low Caemlyn would be a city itself! They'd have to build another wall to close it in.
Chapters 19 and 22
eta:
NM, looks like she found it herself.
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  #136  
Old 02-18-2012, 04:41 AM
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We had our oven "fixed" the other day.
Oh, I know that one. "Fixed" means "sterilised".
  #137  
Old 02-18-2012, 08:11 AM
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Oh, I know that one. "Fixed" means "sterilised".
Actually, the guy just showed us a button we had to push for 5 seconds to get it going. Make of that what you will.
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