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Go Back   Theoryland of the Wheel of Time Forums > THEORYLAND STEDDINGS > Forum Archives > Archived - Non Wot Discussion Boards > Archived: Non WoT Related Discussion 09/08 - 09/09
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  #41  
Old 09-04-2009, 08:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zanguini
you see actually the guard lied because the one who was pardoned is actually B. You see he works in a woman's prison. And he hopes by dropping B down to the lowest level she will be grateful enough to where he will get some bonus from her after the other two die. Now it is interesting because like all prison guards this prison guard is a sadistic asshole and he wants to give both a and c just that little bit of hope so when they are collected for execution it will be just that much sweeter for him.
Eww.
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  #42  
Old 09-04-2009, 09:11 AM
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I love these kinds of problem, I just lack the practice to solve them. Thanks Orc!
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  #43  
Old 09-04-2009, 09:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Sarevok
I love these kinds of problem, I just lack the practice to solve them. Thanks Orc!
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  #44  
Old 09-04-2009, 11:38 AM
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I'll quote myself:
Quote:
Suppose, just for the sake of argument, that prisoner C has been pardoned.

Prisoner A asks the question, and is told that B will be executed.
Prisoner B asks, and is told A will die.
Prisoner C asks, and is told that A will die.

Now, would it really be correct for every one of those three to conclude that they have 50% survival chance?
We know that, after they've gotten the (truthful) answer to their question, two out of three prisoners will die. So given those actual odds, how do you defend the one out of two odds you are claiming?
Now, what would happen if they were allowed to switch after getting the information?

Prisoner A would switch with C and then survive.
Prisoner B would switch with C and then survive.
Prisoner C would switch with B and die.

So what has changed is not their knowledge of their own fate, but their knowledge of the fate of the others.
Just as in the Monty Hall Problem, really.
  #45  
Old 09-04-2009, 12:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GonzoTheGreat
I'll quote myself:
Now, what would happen if they were allowed to switch after getting the information?

Prisoner A would switch with C and then survive.
Prisoner B would switch with C and then survive.
Prisoner C would switch with B and die.

So what has changed is not their knowledge of their own fate, but their knowledge of the fate of the others.
Just as in the Monty Hall Problem, really.
Yes, exactly. The logics of the examples are EXACTLY the same. Why people got confused is because there SHOULD be a choice in the prisoner example (like in the monthy hall), but Camel didn't have it in his example, I said so in an earlier post. In the original prisoner problem, Prisoner A gets to make a choice of switiching to Prisoner C. Only when you introduce the choice of switching, prisoner A can change his probability of survival.
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