art by =saintchase

Theoryland Resources

WoT Interview Search

Search the most comprehensive database of interviews and book signings from Robert Jordan, Brandon Sanderson and the rest of Team Jordan.

Wheel of Time News

An Hour With Harriet

2012-04-30: I had the great pleasure of speaking with Harriet McDougal Rigney about her life. She's an amazing talent and person and it will take you less than an hour to agree.

The Bell Tolls

2012-04-24: Some thoughts I had during JordanCon4 and the upcoming conclusion of "The Wheel of Time."

Theoryland Community

Members: 7611

Logged In (0):

Newest Members:johnroserking, petermorris, johnadanbvv, AndrewHB, jofwu, Salemcat1, Dhakatimesnews, amazingz, Sasooner, Hasib123,

Theoryland Tweets

Forums

Home | Chat | Old Forums(Yuku)


Go Back   Theoryland of the Wheel of Time Forums > THEORYLAND STEDDINGS > Forum Archives > Archived - WoT Discussion Boards > Book 12: The Gathering Storm
User Name
Password

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 09-07-2009, 03:01 PM
creepybob's Avatar
creepybob creepybob is offline
Youngling
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Merced, Ca
Posts: 413
creepybob has a spectacular aura aboutcreepybob has a spectacular aura aboutcreepybob has a spectacular aura about
Default Taking odds on plot points for TGS

So, I think I'm pretty up on what's going to happen in TGS; though, I'd like to test my own predictions. I have this tendency to forget what I've falsely predicted and dwell on what I get right.

To counteract this I'm going to lay odds on plot/character developments and bet some fixed sum and see if I come out ahead.

However, I can't think of everything and I may need a reality check on some numbers so I hope others will have some input. Mostly, I can't think of, or remember, everything so please include anything I miss or object to certain odds.

For how the odds work, think WIN : BET to understand. Hence, 100:1 means bet 1 and get 100 (+1: original bet) if you're right (unlikely), whereas 1:100 means bet 100 and get 1 (+100: original bet) if you're right (likely).

Remember, these are only for TGS, some things are unlikely to happen only within this book, others unlikely to happen ever.

Shadow:
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Asmodean's killer revealed/confirmed (Dragonmount's Statements and Brandon Sanderson's Asmodean enthusiasm.)
1:2 - 33% Likelihood - Granedal or Ar'angar betrays the other.
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Graendal is killed/captured (Proximity to Rand and his need for mental health expert)
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Ar'angar is killed/captured
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Semi is forced, in some fashion, to reveal information and/or teach the AS what they want to know (There will be no assistance...EVAR!)
15:1 - 6.25% Likelihood - Mesanaa's AS ident revealed/confirmed.
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Mesanaa is killed/captured (Thank You Oatman for your loving, tactful correction)
50:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Cyndane is killed/captured
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Moghedian is killed/captured
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Demondred is killed/captured
100:1 - 0.9% Likelihood- Moridin is killed/captured
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - A Forsaken purposefully betrays DO

Rand:
1:7 - 88% Likelihood - Rand is captured by Graendal &/| Ar'angar.
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Rand is psychologically tortured by Graendal.
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Rand's lost hand facilitates capture or serious injury
1:2 - 75% Likelihood - Rand collared in some way
1:2 - 67% Likelihood - Rand's eyesight is fully restored
1:2 - 67% Likelihood - Rand's paranoia alienates Min or Avi or Elayne
1:2 - 67% Likelihood - Rand is captured by Seanchan
2:1 - 33% Likelihood - Rand enlists Ituralde
2:1 - 33% Likelihood - Rand loses control to LTT because of deliberate attempts by Graendal
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Rand temporarily loses "rainbow connection" w/ Mat
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Rand meets with Borderlanders
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Rand and LTT "merge" (Within the TGS Timeline)
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Rand and Egwene meet again
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Rand and Perrin meet again
40:1 - 2.4% Likelihood - Rand and Moraine meet again
40:1 - 2.4% Likelihood - Rand and Mat meet again
40:1 - 2.4% Likelihood - Rand is taught Cadsuane's lesson
40:1 - 2.4% Likelihood - Rand returns to Black Tower
40:1 - 2.4% Likelihood - Rand willingly goes to Seanchan
200:1 - 0.5% Likelihood - Rand's hand physically restored
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Rand allies with Elaida
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Rand has no PoV time in TGS
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible -Rand joins the Dark One

Mat:
1:20 - 95% Likelihood - Mat curses w/in ToG (Light!)
1:20 - 95% Likelihood - Mat enters ToG w/ Thom & Noal
1:20 - 95% Likelihood - Mat finds Moraine
1:20 - 95% Likelihood - Mat has dice in head in ToG
1:5 - 83% Likelihood - Mat has multiple dice in head in ToG
1:5 - 83% Likelihood - Mat surrenders physical eye
1:5 - 83% Likelihood - Mat surrenders figuratave light of world
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Mat gives 1/2 light of world to save Moraine
1;3 - 75% Likelihood - Mat gives 1/2 light of world for specific knowledge/wisdom
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Mat takes Moraine out of ToG
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Mat remembers interior of ToG from old memories
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Mat swears "Light" > 15 times
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - One of Mat's party dies in ToG
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - One of Mat's party is left in ToG
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - Mat emerges from ToG and weeks have passed for everybody else
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Mat takes item out of ToG
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Mat is reunited w/ Rand or Perrin
40:1 - 2.4% Likelihood - Mat is reunited w/ Tuon
40:1 - 2.4% Likelihood - Mat loses hat in ToG
40:1 - 2.4% Likelihood - Mat loses Spear or Medallion in ToG
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Mat leaves ToG w/ a pet Finn
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Mat does not curse w/in ToG
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Mat has no PoV time in TGS
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Mat is killed in ToG
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Mat joins the Dark One

Perrin:
1:20 - 95% Likelihood - Perrin meets with Galad
1:20 - 95% Likelihood - Perrin discovers Morgase's identity
1:5 - 83% Likelihood - Perrin enlists Whitecloaks
1:5 - 83% Likelihood - Perrin is relieved when Berelain ignores him for Galad
1:5 - 83% Likelihood - Perrin is hurt/offended when Bere ignores him for Galad
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Perrin is jealous when Faile is attracted to Galad
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Perrin refuses to let Faile out of his sight
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - agrees to submit to the Andoran crown
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - is considered shadowspawn by Galad
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - discovers WC guilt in family's death
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - meets with the Borderlanders
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - had no PoV time in TGS
40:1 - 2.4% Likelihood - is captured by Galad's WCs
40:1 - 2.4% Likelihood - killes Biar, Bornhold, or both
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Perrin is reuinted with Mat or Rand
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Perrin does not see Dane Bornhold
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Perrin engages WC army
100:1 - 0.9% Likelihood - Perrin leaves Faile for Berelaine
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Perrin kills Faile
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Perrin is killed by the WCs
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Perrin joins the Dark One

Egwene:

1:5 - 83% Likelihood - Egwene is made Amerlyn of united tower
2:3 - 60% Likelihood - Egwene continues her silent resistance throughout the book (This implies a lack of significant behavioral shift, this is implied to be false in chapter 2)
2:3 - 60% Likelihood - Egwene is punished severely, think birched, for not acknowledging Elaida as Amerlyn
1:2 - 67% Likelihood - Egwene gains control (Via Oath or Coersion) of some or all of Elaida's Sitters
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Egwene bonds Gawyn
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Egwene finds out about BA hunt
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - Egwene is NOT untied Amerlyn before Seanchan Attack
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Egwene unmasks Mesanaa
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Egwene poisons Elaida
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Egwene is Amerlyn before Seanchan attack
30:1 - 2.3% Likelihood - Egwene is made Amerlyn because of actions during Seanchan Attack
30:1 - 2.3% Likelihood - Egwene gains control of BA hunters
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Egwene renounces love for Gawyn
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Egwene joins BA
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Egwene has no PoV time in TGS


Misc (Characters):

1:5 - 83% Likelihood - Aviendha is impregnated
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Aviendha gets Rand's paranoia under control
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Aviendha beats Rand's attempts to separate from the girls out of him

1:4 - 80% Likelihood - Elayne has no PoV time in TGS
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Elayne has conversation with Elaida
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Elaida attempts to capture Elayne
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Elayne and Aviendha reunite
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Elayne reunites w/ Rand

1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Elaida is deposed, stilled, and/or killed
5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - Elaida is deposed for witholding weaves from Hall
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - Elaida is deposed for absence (Traveling away) during a crises
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - Elaida is deposed for drunkenness
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - Elaida is deposed for stupidity
30:1 - 2.3% Likelihood - Elaida is renounced as BA
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Elaida stops drinking
100:1 - 0.9% Likelihood - Elaida dies heroically
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Elaida acquires common sense

1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Alviarin discovers the BA hunters
3:1 - 25% Likelihood - Alviarin is revealed as BA
3:1 - 25% Likelihood - Alviarin runs from the Tower
3:1 - 25% Likelihood - Alviarin rejoins the Light (hai Powerslave)
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - Alviarin is caught
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Alviarin is killed/stilled


5:1 - 16.7% Likelihood - BA hunters find Alviarin
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - BA hunters turn against Elaida
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - BA hunters come under Egwene's control

2:3 - 60% Likelihood - Siuan and Bryne finally share feelings/make love/marry
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Siuan is stilled again

10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - Leanne is stilled again

2:3 - 60% Likelihood - Lan arrives at Tarwin's Gap with a massive army (Again, TGS Timeline)
30:1 - 2.3% Likelihood - Lan dies in Tarwin's Gap
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Lan joins the Dark One

1:20 - 95% Likelihood - Gawyn continues to be bitter and angry
1:5 - 83% Likelihood - Gawyn is reunited with Egwene
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Gawyn submits to whatever Egwene's wishes are
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Gawyn is informed of Elayne's struggle for the Lion Throne
1:2 - 67% Likelihood - Gawyn is informed of Elayne's ascension to the Lion Throne
3:1 - 25% Likelihood - Gawyn reunites with Egwene before she is the united Amerlyn
3:1 - 25% Likelihood - Gawyn assists in the removal of Elaida
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - Gawyn ceases to believe Rand killed his Mother
10:1 - 9.1% Likelihood - Gawyn is reunited with Elayne
50:1 - 1.9% Likelihood - Gawyn supports Elaida against Egwene
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Gawyn renounces love for Egwene

1:10 - 91% Likelihood - Verin has no PoV time during TGS
1:5 - 83% Likelihood - Verin is confirmed to be with or heading for the boarderlanders
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Verin is confirmed to be at or heading toward the white tower
2:1 - 33% Likelihood -Verin retrieves the Horn of Valere for Rand
3:1 - 25% Likelihood - Verin convinces Borderlanders to join Rand
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Verin is revealed to be BA
30:1 - 2.3% Likelihood - Verin releases herself fromt he oath rod to cease her fealty to Rand
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - Verin tells someone her plans


Misc (Events):
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Seanchan attack the WT
1:3 - 75% Likelihood - Black Tower civil war begins

2:1 - 33% Likelihood - Seanchan attack Arad Doman
3:1 - 25% Likelihood - Ogier decide to join in TG
20:1 - 4.8% Likelihood - Seals on DO's prison all broken
30:1 - 2.3% Likelihood - Seanchan agree to truce w/ Rand
10^100:1 - Statistically Impossible - The red aijah takes it upon themselves to replenish the worlds supply of channelers and each vow to produce twenty children in the next fifty years


So any input would be nice, if anybody else is interested I'll make a post in mid October to take bets for TGS and we can see who wins. Or, this might be one of the thousands of ideas that I come up with which turn out to be unbelievably lame.



Edit:

Okay, so here are the revamped odds. I've changed odds in response to posts so far so if there's something that gives you pause or that screams wrong post to lemme know.
__________________
creepyBob is your new bicycle



Pirate > Ninja

Last edited by creepybob; 10-16-2009 at 03:10 AM.
  #2  
Old 09-07-2009, 03:41 PM
1Powerslave's Avatar
1Powerslave 1Powerslave is offline
Hero of the Horn
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Sweden
Posts: 649
1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold
Send a message via ICQ to 1Powerslave Send a message via MSN to 1Powerslave Send a message via Yahoo to 1Powerslave
Default

Quote:
500:1 - Alviarin rejoins the Light
Harrruph! Reality check! The odds are more like four times your money should she turn. Not at all as unlikely as you say. Read this: http://www.theoryland.com/vbulletin/...ead.php?t=2178 if you don't believe me.

As for the rest, wow, that was a lot. Do you offer any system as well?

Quote:
1:50 - Gawyn continues to be bitter and angry
If the Tower struggle do get resolved in this book, then yes we'll have to see Gawyn in it if he is to make any impact at all.

Quote:
100:1 - Rand returns to Black Tower
I'd like to see this, but it'll only be fun if Rand is not too sick to channel.
__________________
Aelfinn to Rand: "To live you must *garbled due to the earthquake caused by Rand's ta'veren presence* Moridin"
"Before I let the Dark One have you, I will destroy you myself." -- Moiraine
  #3  
Old 09-07-2009, 04:13 PM
creepybob's Avatar
creepybob creepybob is offline
Youngling
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Merced, Ca
Posts: 413
creepybob has a spectacular aura aboutcreepybob has a spectacular aura aboutcreepybob has a spectacular aura about
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Powerslave
Harrruph! Reality check! The odds are more like four times your money should she turn.
Lawl, no offense intended, I fell into a groove and I didn't realize that 500:1 is 0.2% chance to happen.

I've changed the liklihood to 10:1 which is about 9.1% chance. Now, you think it's closer to 4:1 or 20% but I think that's altered because we've only had one DF return to the Light and never a black sister so Alviarin's case is adjusted.

__________________
creepyBob is your new bicycle



Pirate > Ninja
  #4  
Old 09-07-2009, 04:31 PM
1Powerslave's Avatar
1Powerslave 1Powerslave is offline
Hero of the Horn
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Sweden
Posts: 649
1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold
Send a message via ICQ to 1Powerslave Send a message via MSN to 1Powerslave Send a message via Yahoo to 1Powerslave
Default

I'm sure there has been lots of DF turning to the Light over the years. Hence the expression "No one is ever so far gone into the Shadow that they can't go back to the Light."
And I'm sure there was lots of betrayals in the ranks of the Shadow during the AoL. Perhaps a third age black Sister has yet to turn, but with Asmodean turning, I don't see anything of impact derived from the fact that a Third Age Black Ajah have yet to turn.

That aside, I do appreciate the revision of the odds.
__________________
Aelfinn to Rand: "To live you must *garbled due to the earthquake caused by Rand's ta'veren presence* Moridin"
"Before I let the Dark One have you, I will destroy you myself." -- Moiraine
  #5  
Old 09-07-2009, 04:37 PM
creepybob's Avatar
creepybob creepybob is offline
Youngling
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Merced, Ca
Posts: 413
creepybob has a spectacular aura aboutcreepybob has a spectacular aura aboutcreepybob has a spectacular aura about
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Powerslave
Do you offer any system as well?
You mean betting system? No, not yet, I don't want to start laying "money" on the story until I've read the prolog.

I'll probably just give myself $10k and $10 minimum bet, then fill a board and see how I did after I finish TGS.
  #6  
Old 09-07-2009, 04:51 PM
1Powerslave's Avatar
1Powerslave 1Powerslave is offline
Hero of the Horn
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Sweden
Posts: 649
1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold1Powerslave is a splendid one to behold
Send a message via ICQ to 1Powerslave Send a message via MSN to 1Powerslave Send a message via Yahoo to 1Powerslave
Default

That would be fun to do across the board. If we could perhaps boil it down to 20 or so predictions (something not too heavy). Let everyone use say 1000 gold crowns and distribute their bets over whatever predictions they want to bet on. Then set a date you will freeze all bets and calculate the odds (according to how popular that bet is of course). Then after tGS you calculate winnings.

AND THEN we see who the HCFF MASTER really is.
__________________
Aelfinn to Rand: "To live you must *garbled due to the earthquake caused by Rand's ta'veren presence* Moridin"
"Before I let the Dark One have you, I will destroy you myself." -- Moiraine
  #7  
Old 09-07-2009, 05:01 PM
creepybob's Avatar
creepybob creepybob is offline
Youngling
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Merced, Ca
Posts: 413
creepybob has a spectacular aura aboutcreepybob has a spectacular aura aboutcreepybob has a spectacular aura about
Default

That's more or less what I wanted to do, if people are interested.
__________________
creepyBob is your new bicycle



Pirate > Ninja
  #8  
Old 09-07-2009, 05:03 PM
Marie Curie 7's Avatar
Marie Curie 7 Marie Curie 7 is offline
Hero of the Horn
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,235
Marie Curie 7 has a reputation beyond reputeMarie Curie 7 has a reputation beyond reputeMarie Curie 7 has a reputation beyond reputeMarie Curie 7 has a reputation beyond reputeMarie Curie 7 has a reputation beyond reputeMarie Curie 7 has a reputation beyond reputeMarie Curie 7 has a reputation beyond reputeMarie Curie 7 has a reputation beyond reputeMarie Curie 7 has a reputation beyond reputeMarie Curie 7 has a reputation beyond reputeMarie Curie 7 has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Powerslave
I'm sure there has been lots of DF turning to the Light over the years. Hence the expression "No one is ever so far gone into the Shadow that they can't go back to the Light."
And I'm sure there was lots of betrayals in the ranks of the Shadow during the AoL. Perhaps a third age black Sister has yet to turn, but with Asmodean turning, I don't see anything of impact derived from the fact that a Third Age Black Ajah have yet to turn.
Asmodean turning? You mean back to the Light? I'd say I'm pretty certain that he was still a Darkfriend at the time that he took the big leap...

Quote:
Originally Posted by RJ
TITLE: Fires of Heaven
CHAPTER: 56 Glowing Embers

Idly but with a shiver, too he wondered whether being reborn in this fashion made him a new man. He did not think so. Immortality was gone. That was a gift of the Great Lord; he used that name in his head, whatever al'Thor demanded on his tongue. That was proof enough that he was himself. Immortality gone he knew it must be imagination, yet sometimes he thought he could feel time dragging at him, pulling him toward a grave he had never thought to meet and drawing the little of saidin he could was like drinking sewage. He was hardly sorry Lanfear was dead. Rahvin neither, but Lanfear especially, for what she had done to him. He would laugh when each of the others died, too, and most for the last. It was not that he had been reborn as a new man at all, but he would cling to that tuft of grass on the cliff's brink as long as he could. The roots would give way eventually, the long fall would come, but until then he was still alive.
  #9  
Old 09-08-2009, 04:15 PM
SauceyBlueConfetti's Avatar
SauceyBlueConfetti SauceyBlueConfetti is offline
Hero of the Horn
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Michigan! the Mitten!
Posts: 2,097
SauceyBlueConfetti has a reputation beyond reputeSauceyBlueConfetti has a reputation beyond reputeSauceyBlueConfetti has a reputation beyond reputeSauceyBlueConfetti has a reputation beyond reputeSauceyBlueConfetti has a reputation beyond reputeSauceyBlueConfetti has a reputation beyond reputeSauceyBlueConfetti has a reputation beyond reputeSauceyBlueConfetti has a reputation beyond reputeSauceyBlueConfetti has a reputation beyond reputeSauceyBlueConfetti has a reputation beyond reputeSauceyBlueConfetti has a reputation beyond repute
Send a message via Yahoo to SauceyBlueConfetti
Default Addition?

I still vehemently believe that one of the trusted characters will be revealed as a Dark Friend or worse.
Odds on any of these?

Egwene
Elayne
Min
Aviendha
Mat
Perrin
Faile
Nyn
Lan
Thom
Siuan - c'mon, most of you know this one in particular is my crazy idea
Leane
Cadsuane
Verin
Rhuarc
Bashere
__________________
the Sun Dreamer, the Slade Believer, the Last Love Song on this Little Planet ...Firseal
Oh Xxxxx, do you have to leave so soon? I was just about to poison your tea.
LAST WORD -- (so it is clear I got The Last Word in)
Yeah. Murderous Saucey. My superhero name
I am Detroit. You REALLY wanna call me wimpy?
Haphazardly Spell & Fact Checked Since June 2001
  #10  
Old 09-08-2009, 04:58 PM
creepybob's Avatar
creepybob creepybob is offline
Youngling
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Merced, Ca
Posts: 413
creepybob has a spectacular aura aboutcreepybob has a spectacular aura aboutcreepybob has a spectacular aura about
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SauceyBlueConfetti
I still vehemently believe that one of the trusted characters will be revealed as a Dark Friend or worse.
Odds on any of these?
Umm...well I don't pin any of them as dark friend material. Maybe, maybe mind, Verin or Cadsuane. Bashere's wife was stabbed looking for DOP seals and Bashere could have told whoever wanted them that he didn't have 'em.

...You'll have to give me odds of your own to be more resonable but from my own opinion, past precedence, and personal impressions I'll give 250:1 (0.4% likelihood) for Cadsuane and Verin, 500:1 (0.2% likelihood) for Rhuarc, Bashere, Siuan, and Leane, and 10^100:1 (statistically impossible) for the rest.

To justify Siuan to you, since I see you like the theory, I don't see why Galima would have been so proud to depose a Black Amerlyn, nor do I see why Mesanaa would want to depose a Black Amerlyn, nor Alvianin, who is supposed to know the name of every black sister, etc.

But tell me how likely you think it is they're darkfriends, in odds or percentages, and we can compromise for the board.
__________________
creepyBob is your new bicycle



Pirate > Ninja

Last edited by creepybob; 09-08-2009 at 05:01 PM.
  #11  
Old 09-09-2009, 02:45 AM
GonzoTheGreat GonzoTheGreat is online now
Hero of the Horn
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 15,821
GonzoTheGreat has a reputation beyond reputeGonzoTheGreat has a reputation beyond reputeGonzoTheGreat has a reputation beyond reputeGonzoTheGreat has a reputation beyond reputeGonzoTheGreat has a reputation beyond reputeGonzoTheGreat has a reputation beyond reputeGonzoTheGreat has a reputation beyond reputeGonzoTheGreat has a reputation beyond reputeGonzoTheGreat has a reputation beyond reputeGonzoTheGreat has a reputation beyond reputeGonzoTheGreat has a reputation beyond repute
Default

The 13+13 trick only works on those who can channel. Does that also include the ones that have been temporarily blocked from the OP, for example because they're shielded or stilled?
  #12  
Old 09-09-2009, 02:49 AM
creepybob's Avatar
creepybob creepybob is offline
Youngling
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Merced, Ca
Posts: 413
creepybob has a spectacular aura aboutcreepybob has a spectacular aura aboutcreepybob has a spectacular aura about
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GonzoTheGreat
The 13+13 trick only works on those who can channel. Does that also include the ones that have been temporarily blocked from the OP, for example because they're shielded or stilled?
Aha! The odds would be greater if we allowed for forced turning, damn that's a disconcerting thought.
__________________
creepyBob is your new bicycle



Pirate > Ninja
  #13  
Old 09-09-2009, 08:57 AM
Oatman's Avatar
Oatman Oatman is offline
Ancient
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 403
Oatman is just really niceOatman is just really niceOatman is just really niceOatman is just really niceOatman is just really niceOatman is just really nice
Default

Man, your odds are WAY off on a lot of these. To start with the top, you have Graendel and Aran'gar, one who is definitely active in Arad Domon, and the other one who is likely in Arad Domon, at worse odds of being caught or killed than Semi breaking or Messana being caught or killed.
Rand is currently in the Arad Domon, and Forsaken drop like flies around him.
Semi is extremely strong willed and Rand is forbidding torture of any kind. She will not break.
Messana is hiding among the AS, who with the exception of Moraine have proven to be as effective at fighting the shadow as I would be fighting a grizzly bear armed with a tooth pick. Even if she gets revealed, who is competent enough within the tower to catch her?

Anyway, I can't really be bothered looking at the rest right now.
__________________
You can't do something you haven't yet done differently to how it will come to be done.

"From the Oatman Prophecies."

Writer of the Breakfast Prophecies for the Lord of the Morning

RS is an idiot.
  #14  
Old 09-09-2009, 10:28 AM
Ozymandias's Avatar
Ozymandias Ozymandias is offline
Ancient
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: New York, NY
Posts: 1,838
Ozymandias is a name known to allOzymandias is a name known to allOzymandias is a name known to allOzymandias is a name known to allOzymandias is a name known to allOzymandias is a name known to allOzymandias is a name known to allOzymandias is a name known to all
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SauceyBlueConfetti
I still vehemently believe that one of the trusted characters will be revealed as a Dark Friend or worse.
Odds on any of these?

Egwene
Elayne
Min
Aviendha
Mat
Perrin
Faile
Nyn
Lan
Thom
Siuan - c'mon, most of you know this one in particular is my crazy idea
Leane
Cadsuane
Verin
Rhuarc
Bashere
If its going to be one of these, there are very clearly only 3 possibilities. And those are Leane, Cadsuane, and Verin (mostly Verin).

Though it would be funny if Faile had just been "assigned" to Perrin, and really was in love with Luc/Isam, and all the flirting in tSR was so much more. Kind of a Melindhra-like situation.
  #15  
Old 09-09-2009, 12:19 PM
creepybob's Avatar
creepybob creepybob is offline
Youngling
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Merced, Ca
Posts: 413
creepybob has a spectacular aura aboutcreepybob has a spectacular aura aboutcreepybob has a spectacular aura about
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozymandias
Though it would be funny if Faile had just been "assigned" to Perrin, and really was in love with Luc/Isam, and all the flirting in tSR was so much more. Kind of a Melindhra-like situation.
...Sometimes it seems that everybody wants Faile to somehow be removed from Perrin's life, but I'm fairly certain if we see Faile revealed as a DF we'll see a destroyed and useless Perrin.

But, that's neither here nor there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Oatman
To start with the top, you have Graendel and Aran'gar, one who is definitely active in Arad Domon, and the other one who is likely in Arad Domon, at worse odds of being caught or killed than Semi breaking or Messana being caught or killed.
Rand is currently in the Arad Domon, and Forsaken drop like flies around him.
Yeah, your right about the shadow, I think Graendal has 'bout a 20% chance of being killed/captured instead of .02%, I'll adjust the numbers for the forsaken.
__________________
creepyBob is your new bicycle



Pirate > Ninja
  #16  
Old 09-09-2009, 06:04 PM
FelixPax's Avatar
FelixPax FelixPax is offline
Elder
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 1,612
FelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant future
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SauceyBlueConfetti
I still vehemently believe that one of the trusted characters will be revealed as a Dark Friend or worse.
Odds on any of these?

Egwene
Elayne
Min
Aviendha
Mat
Perrin
Faile
Nyn
Lan
Thom
Siuan - c'mon, most of you know this one in particular is my crazy idea
Leane
Cadsuane
Verin
Rhuarc
Bashere
LOL...only "Verin" in my estimate is on the side of the Shadow of these individuals listed.

Quote:
100:1 - Verin is revealed to be BA
The odds are NOT that low for Verin being a Black Ajah at all, 1%. How can "Perrin enlisting in the WhiteCloaks" be at 1:25 and Verin being a BA is 100:1??? Exchanging those two odds is far more realist, even though I'd put Verin being a BA at roughly 75% not 25%.



Quote:
1:50 - Aviendha is impregnated
Why do you think Aviendha is going to get pregnant in tSG? I ask because her 4 babies are suppose have something strange about them, yet Rand is still the same person as of tGS chapter 1. The assumption being the babies will be different, because Rand will have changed before the pregnancy. Are you assuming Rand dies in tGS, with these odds on Aviendha's pregnancy? I just don't see it occurring this early in AMOL books 1 to 3, maybe in book 2, just not book 1 tGS.



Why isn't Lelaine or Maigan listed above, each of the Blue Ajah in Salidar? Their are not subject to disclaimer of being non-Black Ajah that Alviarin Freidhen said about the Ajah Heads in the White Tower, when referring to Galina of the Red Ajah. Maigan only became the Blue Ajah Head after Anaiya was killed by Aran'gar. Maigan also was at Fal Dara when Padar Fain was freed too....


If you put odds on who Mesaana IS hiding as, now that would be interesting exercise.

Last edited by FelixPax; 09-09-2009 at 06:25 PM.
  #17  
Old 09-09-2009, 06:13 PM
FelixPax's Avatar
FelixPax FelixPax is offline
Elder
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 1,612
FelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant future
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by creepybob
Aha! The odds would be greater if we allowed for forced turning, damn that's a disconcerting thought.
Think'n of Sheriam, I take it? And her abuser in the Salidar Aes Sedai camp?


If an a'dam doesn't work on Setalle Anan in Ebou Dar, I serious doubt a "burned out" channeller can be turned to the Shadow by the 13+13 method. "Severing" though is a different condition, but they cannot channel nor touch the source. So it's also different to see a "Severed" channeller being turned to the Shadow. The only different is a "Severing" can be healed to full now, by a channeller of the opposite sex.
  #18  
Old 09-09-2009, 07:39 PM
creepybob's Avatar
creepybob creepybob is offline
Youngling
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Merced, Ca
Posts: 413
creepybob has a spectacular aura aboutcreepybob has a spectacular aura aboutcreepybob has a spectacular aura about
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Felix
The odds are NOT that low for Verin being a Black Ajah at all, 1%. How can "Perrin enlisting in the WhiteCloaks" be at 1:25 and Verin being a BA is 100:1??? Exchanging those two odds is far more realist, even though I'd put Verin being a BA at roughly 75% not 25%.
Calm down felix, my paranoid peace loving cat, I'm working on the odds, I got called away to make lunch and didn't finsh refining the numbers. I made the likely happinings WAY too likely and the unlikely happenings WAY too unlikely.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Felix
If you put odds on who Mesaana IS hiding as, now that would be interesting exercise.
...As for Mesanaa's identity, I thought it was between about 4 people, Danelle, the Cook Lady, and 2 of the sitters. I'll toss those up but you'll have to give me your own odds for their likelihood of being Mesanaa.
__________________
creepyBob is your new bicycle



Pirate > Ninja
  #19  
Old 09-12-2009, 12:13 PM
4Alethinos 4Alethinos is offline
Hero of the Horn
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Pittsburg, CA
Posts: 344
4Alethinos will become famous soon enough4Alethinos will become famous soon enough
Default

Creepybob, that is a very interesting list. Nice job.

As to Verin being a DF. I do not find that credible. RJ stated unequivocally that she was still under the oaths of the Oath Rod in the WT.

I see no indication that she has changed since RJ made that statement.

Verin is absolutely ruthless about what she sees as the necessity to get Rand to TG and in enough of a solid mental state to win. She knows that anything less and the Light will lose. Her almost killing of Cadsuane is, IMO, proof of this. It was only when Cadsuane revealed her intentions about Rand that Verin relented.

Leane is a definite maybe.

"What are the odds that you will be killed by a toilet seat from outer space?" George
  #20  
Old 09-12-2009, 05:11 PM
FelixPax's Avatar
FelixPax FelixPax is offline
Elder
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 1,612
FelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant futureFelixPax has a brilliant future
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 4Alethinos
Creepybob, that is a very interesting list. Nice job.

As to Verin being a DF. I do not find that credible. RJ stated unequivocally that she was still under the oaths of the Oath Rod in the WT.
But which Oaths is Verin under? Do the Black Ajah have exactly three Oaths to take on the Oath Rod, as normal Aes Sedai do?

RJ never said which particular Oaths Verin is under now from the Oath Rod, in any interview I know of.


Quote:
Originally Posted by 4Alethinos
Verin is absolutely ruthless about what she sees as the necessity to get Rand to TG and in enough of a solid mental state to win. She knows that anything less and the Light will lose. Her almost killing of Cadsuane is, IMO, proof of this. It was only when Cadsuane revealed her intentions about Rand that Verin relented.
Verin never said anywhere in the series she wanted Rand to beat the Dark One at T'G. However, Verin does express an interest in seeing Rand go insane in tGH.


The event with Cadsuane can also be interpreted as an attempt to knock off a competitor who wants to influence Rand's behavior & actions. Verin just knows that Rand is too stubborn to take directions nor advice directly, in the style which Cadsuane operates. Cadsuane hasn't been around Two Rivers men, and she doesn't know Rand as well as Verin does. Why kill an Aes Sedai, if her advice won't be followed nor influence Rand at all?


Notice how Verin's behavior towards Rand has changed over the whole series? It's become increasing indirect, where Verin works though other people to attempt to influence Rand, so nothing ever sticks to Verin if it doesn't work. This method enables Verin to stay close & observe everything Rand does and says. This is also how Verin learns from an angry Min in KoD, that Rand let himself be bonded by three women: Elayne, Aviendha and Min. Shortly afterward Verin leaves Rand and the Tear Manor Estate for parts unknown. Which is similar to tGH, when Verin leaves the party of Aes Sedai with Siuan after she learns the Moraine left the group too.


Verin however does have limits she does not foresee Moraine and Morgase's impact on Rand's harden heart (e.g. Chap. "Steel of Tears"). Cadsuane operating alone to soften Rand's Heart, Verin guesses correctly that she will fail in my view. Verin simply does not know where Morgase is nor if she's alive, nor does she know if Moraine is alive at all. But Verin can regain an indirect control over Rand, if say something happens to one of loves of his life: Elayne.

Last edited by FelixPax; 09-12-2009 at 05:32 PM.
 


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:10 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.