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  #41  
Old 03-30-2010, 12:19 PM
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Imagine a WOT quiz question: who is the Dragon Reborn?

A Mat
B Perrim
C Rand
D. Bela

Hey, I'm entitled to my opinion. She clearly wiped her own fatique from herself. She opened that gateway for Egwene to travel into TAR, she was at the Eye, etc etc.

Prove me wrong kids, PROVE ME WRONG!
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  #42  
Old 03-30-2010, 12:35 PM
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Originally Posted by tworiverswoman View Post
The table is full of LOTS of interesting numerical facts. For instance, since 1970 (forty years ago) we've had exactly FOUR years in which the Fedgov collected more than it spent. 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001. Weird.
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Originally Posted by JSUCamel View Post
Huh. Socialist liberal years. Who'da thunk it?
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Originally Posted by Davian93 View Post
Weird, huh? Its almost like the GOP and good economy/gov't dont go together.
I will only respond to this because it seems the Clinton surplus myth has some traction here. Rather than trying to prove otherwise using my resources, I will encourage you all to use yours.

If indeed there were a surplus, the national debt would have decreased during those years. If someone can show that the total national debt went down during that time of supposed surplus, I will immediately order an Obama sticker and put it on my Jeep. If however you can not show that the national debt went down, please then admit that there was no surplus and it was all mist and mirrors and fancy paperwork that amounted to absolutely nothing.
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  #43  
Old 03-30-2010, 12:41 PM
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Originally Posted by One Armed Gimp View Post
I will only respond to this because it seems the Clinton surplus myth has some traction here. Rather than trying to prove otherwise using my resources, I will encourage you all to use yours.

If indeed there were a surplus, the national debt would have decreased during those years. If someone can show that the total national debt went down during that time of supposed surplus, I will immediately order an Obama sticker and put it on my Jeep. If however you can not show that the national debt went down, please then admit that there was no surplus and it was all mist and mirrors and fancy paperwork that amounted to absolutely nothing.

Predictable if nothing else. Perhaps that is because the surplus was used for other things like tax breaks and because the GOP lead Congress refused to pay down the debt with it.

~puts OAG on Ignore list~

As fun as it is to have Foxnews blared from every post.

Also, you know damn well that moving money from one gov't account (Social Security) to another (Budget) DOES NOT count towards the standard debt numbers...or maybe not as you toe the same Foxnews line every time you post (other than in food threads which are fun as they are non-partisan and we all actually agree on stuff).
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Last edited by Davian93; 03-30-2010 at 12:48 PM.
  #44  
Old 03-30-2010, 12:49 PM
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There have been a lot of posts about proper study design, the mathematics of statistical results, and other similar topics, but I think the posts in this thread have been pretty good. All I really want to say is that it seems like statistics as a science will forever be doomed to laypeople (and even other statisticians) complaining about results.
  #45  
Old 03-30-2010, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Davian93 View Post
Predictable if nothing else. Perhaps that is because the surplus was used for other things like tax breaks and because the GOP lead Congress refused to pay down the debt with it.

~puts OAG on Ignore list~

As fun as it is to have Foxnews blared from every post.
Yeah, cause sticking your fingers in your ears and yelling "I can't hear you!" really solves anything....

@OAG: The only thing I have to say about your "argument" is that budget and debt (net worth) are two separate things. You can have a surplus without paying down the national debt. They're two separate issues. One has to do with money that I intend to make versus money I intend to spend, another has to do with how much money I owe someone else.

If I budget $1000 in expenses for this month and I bring in $2000, then I have a $1000 surplus, regardless of whether I owe Jim Bib $5000 or not. If I choose to pay down the debt with my $1000 surplus, then that's unrelated to the fact that I have a surplus.

However, if I choose to invest the $1000 surplus into fixing my car, which I need in order to get to work and earn more money and make more surpluses in the future, then I can do that, and it would probably be better than paying $1000 to Jim Bob, having nothing, and not being able to fix my car and make more money. Fixing the car doesn't pay down my debt, but then again, paying down the debt wasn't on the budgetary plan for that month.
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  #46  
Old 03-30-2010, 12:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Davian93 View Post
Predictable if nothing else. Perhaps that is because the surplus was used for other things like tax breaks and because the GOP lead Congress refused to pay down the debt with it.

~puts OAG on Ignore list~

As fun as it is to have Foxnews blared from every post.

Also, you know damn well that moving money from one gov't account (Social Security) to another (Budget) DOES NOT count towards the standard debt numbers...or maybe not as you toe the same Foxnews line every time you post (other than in food threads which are fun as they are non-partisan and we all actually agree on stuff).
At this point I think a discussion on intra-government holdings would be pointless.

But I would like to point one thing out. I actually do not watch FoxNews, other than O'Reilly and the one guy that does a radio show too..... Hannity, I could not name anyone on the network, nor any show, nor any time slots. I also do not visit their website. I get my news from various locations but FoxNews is not on that list.
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  #47  
Old 03-30-2010, 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted by One Armed Gimp View Post
At this point I think a discussion on intra-government holdings would be pointless.

But I would like to point one thing out. I actually do not watch FoxNews, other than O'Reilly and the one guy that does a radio show too..... Hannity, I could not name anyone on the network, nor any show, nor any time slots. I also do not visit their website. I get my news from various locations but FoxNews is not on that list.
Wall Street Journal is just as bad...just in case that is one of them. Murdoch destroyed that when he bought it.

FWIW, I dont think we should have ever borrowed out of the SS trust. That should have been sacrosanct...untouchable unless a true disaster (like a WWII scenario) struck. It would be far more stable at this point had we done that. I also think we need to cut the payouts (maybe by 10-15%) and raise the retirement age to bring it more in line with the current life expectancy. If we did that, both SS and Medicare would be fine for the rest of the century. At least that's what many models have suggested. Otherwise, it will be depleted by 2037 (I think that number is still correct...been a while since I looked it up).
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  #48  
Old 03-30-2010, 01:13 PM
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I thought you had him on ignore, Dav. Changed your mind?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiduciary Dramadery
However, if I choose to invest the $1000 surplus into fixing my car, which I need in order to get to work and earn more money and make more surpluses in the future, then I can do that, and it would probably be better than paying $1000 to Jim Bob, having nothing, and not being able to fix my car and make more money. Fixing the car doesn't pay down my debt, but then again, paying down the debt wasn't on the budgetary plan for that month.
I get OAG's point, though. You shouldn't jump up and down with glee because you have a surplus when you still owe your neighbor ten trillion dollars.

But at the same time, from a relative perspective, isn't it better to have a surplus then not, regardless of whether you still owe money? I'd rather be in the black and have cash to pay my debts than be in the red and also owe.
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  #49  
Old 03-30-2010, 01:24 PM
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Originally Posted by JSUCamel View Post
...@OAG: The only thing I have to say about your "argument" is that budget and debt (net worth) are two separate things. You can have a surplus without paying down the national debt. They're two separate issues. One has to do with money that I intend to make versus money I intend to spend, another has to do with how much money I owe someone else.

If I budget $1000 in expenses for this month and I bring in $2000, then I have a $1000 surplus, regardless of whether I owe Jim Bib $5000 or not. If I choose to pay down the debt with my $1000 surplus, then that's unrelated to the fact that I have a surplus.

However, if I choose to invest the $1000 surplus into fixing my car, which I need in order to get to work and earn more money and make more surpluses in the future, then I can do that, and it would probably be better than paying $1000 to Jim Bob, having nothing, and not being able to fix my car and make more money. Fixing the car doesn't pay down my debt, but then again, paying down the debt wasn't on the budgetary plan for that month.
No, Dav hit the nail on the head. US Public Debt went down, a big portion of the claimed surplus, but intra-government holdings went up, increasing the total national debt. Some believe that intra-government holding do not and should not count towards public debt. That's where the discussion begins, should it count or not?

As Dav pointed out though, its a shady practice regardless and SS's coffers have been raped to fund various things.

I probably read a WSJ article once or twice a day. Mostly I get links from various sites and blogs. Yes some right leaning ones like Drudge (regardless of your view of him, you have to admit the man gets news out quick) but also some moderate and left leaning places as well. I find Yahoo and Google news give me good starting points for the day and I tend to go from there. I usually start with sports.yahoo.com and nationalfootballpost.com however.
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  #50  
Old 03-30-2010, 01:43 PM
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Originally Posted by StrangePackage View Post
Except the most glaring error, and the one which makes the least sense, is that they got the question of whether federal taxes have gone up, gone down, or stayed the same since Obama was elected.

That is a multiple choice question- Pick A, B, or C. 98% got it wrong. It is their principal complaint.

Imagine a WOT quiz question: who is the Dragon Reborn?

A Mat
B Perrim
C Rand

And then 98% of the board answered A or B.
Your option B is really more like including the answer Unicorn on the tax question.
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  #51  
Old 03-30-2010, 02:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Crispin's Crispian View Post
I get OAG's point, though. You shouldn't jump up and down with glee because you have a surplus when you still owe your neighbor ten trillion dollars.

But at the same time, from a relative perspective, isn't it better to have a surplus then not, regardless of whether you still owe money? I'd rather be in the black and have cash to pay my debts than be in the red and also owe.
I get the point as well. But the surplus isn't a myth, as OAG (and others) have suggested. It WAS a surplus -- we just didn't use it to pay down the debts. And like you said, it's better to have a surplus than a deficit, regardless of the national debt level.
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  #52  
Old 03-30-2010, 03:21 PM
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Originally Posted by One Armed Gimp View Post

The Right values smaller government, less government intervention and more personal freedom. Freedom such as the ability to run ones own Sole Proprietorship, Partnership, LLC, or corporation as one (or the groups individuals) see fit with as little government interference as possible. Unfortunately, that sometimes means letting people do shitty things (insurance companies), but that is their right, so be it. Its fine if you believe that things should be otherwise. I am not condoning what insurance companies do, but I believe they have every right to do it.
Historically, this is what the right values. This is NOT what the Right values anymore. They are pro- big government. The Bush Administration saw the creation of a whole new department of government, for chrissakes! As for less government intervention; well, yeah, they do believe in deregulating the economy - cue Enron, Worldcom, and the entire fiscal collapse of the last 3 years. Thats the result of deregulation. I'm not saying I disagree, or that Democrats are even that different, but deregulation got us into this mess. Or at least made it much, much worse. And as for personal freedom... please. What is a Pro-Lifer but someone who thinks they know best about what people can and can't do with their body? What is an anti-gay marriage proponent but someone who believes they can tell you what is and isn't matrimony?

No, the Right traditionally believes that States should be allowed to make these decisions. They're all for intervening in private life, to a far greater degree than the Left has been, historically. A conservative party is always, always, almost by definition, interested in restricting. A liberal party wishes to be, well, more liberal, allow more things.

On a different note, insurance companies don't have a huge profit margin, I don't believe. Credit card companies are a different story. I'm all for a free market... let a credit card company charge what they will, and only have the gov't be involved if there are monopolistic practices going on.

But don't sit there, Gimp, and tell us what the Right values when its so obviously not the truth. The right is all for big government. States rights died a long time ago. Fiscally, the left has been far more conservative over the last 30 years than the right. Reagan and Bush spent trillions on the military. Clinton balanced the budget. And if Obama is spending a ton of money on bailouts, well, at least he's not throwing it down some sandy shithole in the middle of the desert.
  #53  
Old 03-30-2010, 05:19 PM
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Originally Posted by StrangePackage View Post
Except the most glaring error, and the one which makes the least sense, is that they got the question of whether federal taxes have gone up, gone down, or stayed the same since Obama was elected.

That is a multiple choice question- Pick A, B, or C. 98% got it wrong. It is their principal complaint.

Imagine a WOT quiz question: who is the Dragon Reborn?

A Mat
B Perrin
C Rand

And then 98% of the board answered A or B.
I can see how that would happen too. The money taken out of my checks every two weeks actually went down. The money I paid at the end of the year went up.

I'm one of those weird people who knows exactly how much I pay in federal taxes right down to the penny. This year (2009 tax year) is the first year since 2000 that I didn't try to zero my taxes out. With my wife being laid off and only getting paid for 4 1/2 months, then getting unemployment for the rest of the year it was too screwed up for me to even try. I'm on course this year though...unless she gets a job...then I'm screwed again.

If you take a question like the one about a family earning $50,000. I couldn't even make a guess at that. I could sit down and figure it out with a tax schedule, but that'd be the only way. When I first saw the question, I guessed $6000, so I wasn't way off, but I am deep into trying to keep as much of my money as possible out of the hands of the gov't.
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  #54  
Old 03-30-2010, 05:32 PM
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I can see how that would happen too.
Um, I can't.
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  #55  
Old 03-30-2010, 05:55 PM
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Um, I can't.
okay.
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  #56  
Old 03-30-2010, 05:56 PM
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You should start a poll.
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  #57  
Old 03-30-2010, 07:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Sei'taer View Post

If you take a question like the one about a family earning $50,000. I couldn't even make a guess at that. I could sit down and figure it out with a tax schedule, but that'd be the only way. When I first saw the question, I guessed $6000, so I wasn't way off, but I am deep into trying to keep as much of my money as possible out of the hands of the gov't.
I don't think the point of the poll was to see how many of these people had memorized tax rates. It was to demonstrate how wildly inaccurate a teabagger's beliefs are. If I say a family with an income of 50k gets taxed 4000 when the actual number is 3500, thats not bad. If I say 10000 when the actual number is 3500, im clearly an idiot.
  #58  
Old 03-30-2010, 08:11 PM
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im clearly an idiot.
You said it, not I :P
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  #59  
Old 03-30-2010, 09:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JSUCamel View Post
You said it, not I :P
Damn, Jemaclus got there first.

Though, in this particular instance, Ozymandius is exactly right, as is SP.

If your entire reason for being an angry mob is a thing you can't even get in the ballpark when asked to describe the reason, then all you are is an ignorant angry mob.

Anyone here like those?
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  #60  
Old 03-30-2010, 09:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OAG
If indeed there were a surplus, the national debt would have decreased during those years. If someone can show that the total national debt went down during that time of supposed surplus, I will immediately order an Obama sticker and put it on my Jeep. If however you can not show that the national debt went down, please then admit that there was no surplus and it was all mist and mirrors and fancy paperwork that amounted to absolutely nothing.
I wish I could upload tables and charts and stuff... maybe a screenshot? Meh, too much trouble. HOWEVER...

Please go to
this page and download the worksheet of historical data. I'm not savvy enough to know if there's an actual distinction between the phrase "National Debt" and "Debt Held by the Public" which is the name of the last column on the first sheet of the Excel file I downloaded. However, here are the $$ amounts (in billions) for 1990 to 2009:

$ Amout / % of GDP

2,411.6 / 42.1 (1990)
2,689.0 / 45.3
2,999.7 / 48.1
3,248.4 / 49.3
3,433.1 / 49.2
3,604.4 / 49.1
3,734.1 / 48.4
3,772.3 / 45.9
3,721.1 / 43.0 (Ding ding - this is 1998)
3,632.4 / 39.4

3,409.8 / 34.7
3,319.6 / 32.5

3,540.4 / 33.6 (Back to the usual - 2002)
3,913.4 / 35.6
4,295.5 / 36.8
4,592.2 / 36.9
4,829.0 / 36.5
5,035.1 / 36.2
5,803.1 / 40.2 (2008 - Obama begins)
7,544.0 / 53.0 (2009 - and I'm not sure that's a final figure)

I disliked Clinton intensely, and I'm not sure how much of that surplus was his to claim vs. policies laid down prior to his tenure. But he held the chair from 1993 to 2000, so...


To be fair to Obama, he didn't CREATE the meltdown of the Financial sector, he inherited it. Maybe a Republican president wouldn't have such high numbers in those last two years. Or maybe the GDP would have collapsed... I have no idea.


P.S. to OAG -- you keep remarking how ignorant the article writer is for quoting numbers that don't match the survey - particularly that 31.5% figure. However, I can't find any supporting information on the 31.5 number, but the article writer's numbers come right from the Congressional Budget Office's report that I'm linking you to. So the error (if there is one) is actually in the survey-taker's numbers. Not the article writer. Oddly enough, the CORRECT number supports his point far better than that unsupported 31.5%



ETA p.s.
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Last edited by tworiverswoman; 03-30-2010 at 09:38 PM.
 


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