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  #21  
Old 07-16-2016, 10:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Terez View Post
Kimon seems to think that if they had been, it wouldn't have failed.
We're hardly infallible, but our confusion as things were unfolding seemed more genuine than feigned. Erdogan seemed to blame Gulen, who while in the Poconos, wouldn't be our choice for a coup, as he was Erdogan's old AKP associate, and arguably even more hardline. This would be far too much risk of instability just to hand things over to Gulen, especially considering how little of the military - seemingly just the gendarmerie and parts of the air force - was directly involved. Maybe I'm giving us too much credit (certainly we made quite a mess of Iraq and Libya, so simple incompetence and miscalculation isn't implausible), but this doesn't really give the feel of our fingerprints.

Concerning Dav's mentions of the purges, this failed coup shows just how thorough (well nearly thorough) a job Erdogan did starting back in 2007 purging the military and judiciary in the so-called Ergenekon and Sledgehammer. Now he's finishing that job.

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-36811357

Quote:
Summary

Turkey PM Binali Yildirim says coup attempt by faction of armed forces is over
More than 160 people are dead, 1,440 are wounded and some 2,800 soldiers are under arrest, says Mr Yildirim
More than 2,700 judges are fired for alleged links to coup attempt - warrants are out for 140 Supreme Court members
It follows reports of explosions and gunfire in Ankara and Istanbul overnight as the coup unfolded
President Erdogan made a televised address, urging opposition to the uprising and calling it "treason"
Mass arrests after failed Turkey coup
Quote:
The government has blamed followers of Islamic preacher Fethullah Gulen - once an ally of President Erdogan, but his fiercest foe since 2013, when the president said he was behind a huge leak of phone calls that seemed to implicate the government in corruption.

Ever since, there's been a relentless purge of Mr Gulen's loyalists within the police, civil service and military: individuals the government has accused of forming a parallel state.

Mr Gulen has denied involvement in this latest coup attempt, but the government wants his extradition from the US, where he lives in exile.

Last edited by Kimon; 07-16-2016 at 11:02 AM.
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  #22  
Old 07-16-2016, 12:00 PM
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Numbers on the purge getting a bit clearer.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36813924

Quote:
Some 2,839 soldiers, including high-ranking officers, have been arrested after an attempted coup that is now over, says Turkey's PM Binali Yildirim.
Unclear whether any of the "high-ranking officers" are just unpopular, and not trusted by Erdogan, and so rounded up using the coup as pretext, rather than actual evidence of involvement, but the numbers of judges is a bit harder to hide...

Quote:
Some 2,745 Turkish judges have also been dismissed in the wake of the coup, state media say.
There is also this...

Quote:
In other developments, the US consulate in southern Adana province said local authorities were preventing movement in or out of Incirlik air base and had cut power there. No reason has been given.
Apparently we are being punished for waiting a few hours before officially picking sides.
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  #23  
Old 07-16-2016, 12:22 PM
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Originally Posted by GonzoTheGreat View Post
Erdogan got his position because he was elected to it. Simply having him shoved aside by the military is not really the kind of situation to be applauded, even if it may not be much of a difference anyway, seeing as how Erdogan doesn't have much respect for freedom and the rule of law either.

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Sadly it is already defeated. Yesterday when I heard of it I was so fucking happy, just as much was I upset when I woke up and saw the reports about pro-Erdogan forces regaining control over the country.
Still hope to see Erdogan hung one day like Saddam.
I'll take democratically elected shitheads over military shitheads any day. Turkey have to learn to manage itself by elections, not coups. It's tempting to want the quick change that a coup gets you, but which military coups has really worked out so far?

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Originally Posted by Terez View Post
Kimon seems to think that if they had been, it wouldn't have failed.
Having the CIA involved is an almost assured failure, their win-rate isn't very high.
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  #24  
Old 07-16-2016, 01:23 PM
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Having the CIA involved is an almost assured failure, their win-rate isn't very high.
- Syria 1949 - success (albeit another coup a few years later brought Assad's family into power)
- Iran 1951 - success (albeit came back to haunt us)
- Guatemala 1954 - success
- Indonesia 1957 - failure (mostly because Ike and the CIA weren't on the same page)
- Congo 1960 - success
- Dominican Republic 1960 - success
- Cuba 1961 - failure (again arguably because JFK and the CIA weren't on the same page)
- Vietnam - failure (hard to blame this quagmire on them)
- Afghanistan 1979 - success (albeit came back to haunt us)
- Iran Contra (embarrassing, but this one was mostly Reagan's fault, not the CIA's)
- Lebanon - massive fu*kup, again Reagan's fault. We never should have allied with Israel. We were far better off when the CIA was working quietly with the PLO. But Israel assassinated Salameh, and Reagan was a senile bible-thumping idiot.

A few embarrassments aside, the CIA essentially was, for the most part, very good at what was admittedly some very ethnically questionable activities, until they were forced to work for that senile bastard Reagan. Mind you, going 6-5 isn't exactly a great record, especially when a lot of those "successes" are Pyrrhic victories.

I was initially hoping that this was Davutoglu (the recently ousted PM who was thrown aside for resisting Erdogan's attempts to change the constitution) with the backing of the military, and with our consent. Davutoglu at least would have had a clear rationale, defending democracy against Erdogan's illegal power grab, and he, while AKP too, had been far more willing to work with us on both ISIS and the refugees. Unfortunately...

Last edited by Kimon; 07-16-2016 at 01:28 PM.
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  #25  
Old 07-17-2016, 02:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Kimon View Post
- Syria 1949 - success (albeit another coup a few years later brought Assad's family into power)
- Iran 1951 - success (albeit came back to haunt us)
- Guatemala 1954 - success
- Indonesia 1957 - failure (mostly because Ike and the CIA weren't on the same page)
- Congo 1960 - success
- Dominican Republic 1960 - success
- Cuba 1961 - failure (again arguably because JFK and the CIA weren't on the same page)
- Vietnam - failure (hard to blame this quagmire on them)
- Afghanistan 1979 - success (albeit came back to haunt us)
- Iran Contra (embarrassing, but this one was mostly Reagan's fault, not the CIA's)
- Lebanon - massive fu*kup, again Reagan's fault. We never should have allied with Israel. We were far better off when the CIA was working quietly with the PLO. But Israel assassinated Salameh, and Reagan was a senile bible-thumping idiot.
Count those "came back to haunt us" as failures too. The only way to win is not to play.
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  #26  
Old 07-17-2016, 03:00 PM
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I'll take democratically elected shitheads over military shitheads any day.
The problem with turkeysh democracy is that it is different than the one you're used to. In fact, the army is the most democratic fource because many of the officers still share kemalist ideology. In fact, all previous coups in that country were a step towards democracy.
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  #27  
Old 07-17-2016, 03:49 PM
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The problem with turkeysh democracy is that it is different than the one you're used to. In fact, the army is the most democratic fource because many of the officers still share kemalist ideology. In fact, all previous coups in that country were a step towards democracy.
Most of those Kemalists had already been rounded up and jailed by Erdogan between 2007-2011, when the military made the mistake of trying to bully Erdogan and Gulen. It's still unclear whether these rebels were Kemalists, or if they were the last few Gulen supporters, which is what Erdogan is claiming. Certainly in addition to rounding up all those judges, he is also demanding that we hand over Gulen. Erdogan did finally lift his blockade of Incirlik, and allow us to recommence our sorties against ISIS, so we apparently successfully convinced him that this hadn't been a failed CIA mission.

It is somewhat demonstrative of just how bad Erdogan is, that while democratically elected, and while a NATO ally, we weren't exactly shy about being cautiously optimistic at the brief prospect of him being gone. Certainly nothing that he has done following the coup's failure invalidates our dismay at his authoritarianism. Hopefully we don't elect our own version of Putin and Erdogan in a few months, as Trump is very much cut from the same cloth.
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  #28  
Old 07-18-2016, 08:05 AM
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Two rebel F-16s reportedly had Erdogan's plane in their sights and locked on with radar but never fired on him.

Um...do they not understand how coups are supposed to work...FIRST, you cut the head off the snake, then you kill its body. That's the moment this one fell through. Had they taken him out, they likely are in power right now instead of being pushed up against a wall and getting shot.
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  #29  
Old 07-19-2016, 11:52 AM
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He's going after teachers now too.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36838347

Quote:
More than 15,000 education staff in Turkey have been suspended after last week's failed coup, as a purge of state officials widens still further.
The ministry of education accused them of links to Fethullah Gulen, a US-based cleric the Turkish government says was behind Friday's uprising.
Mr Gulen denies any involvement in the coup attempt .
The resignation of more than 1,500 university deans has also been ordered by Turkey's high education board.
Quote:
The army, judiciary, security and civil service have all been targeted following Friday's coup attempt:
6,000 military personnel have been arrested, with more than two dozen generals awaiting trial
9,000 police officers have been sacked
3,000 judges have been suspended
More than 250 staff in Mr Yildirim's office have been removed
Turkey's media regulation body on Tuesday also revoked the licenses of 24 radio and TV channels accused to have links to Mr Gulen.
It is increasingly impossible to ignore Hahn's observations about prepared lists. This, like Suruc, looks suspicious...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reu...-EUs-Hahn.html

Last edited by Kimon; 07-19-2016 at 11:58 AM.
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  #30  
Old 07-19-2016, 11:54 AM
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The Turkish state must be ever vigilant against the creeping influence of Emmanuel Goldstein...I mean Gulen.
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  #31  
Old 07-19-2016, 12:00 PM
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Why doesn't he simply follow Bremer's example from Iraq: fire everyone and await further developments?
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Old 07-19-2016, 12:06 PM
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Originally Posted by GonzoTheGreat View Post
Why doesn't he simply follow Bremer's example from Iraq: fire everyone and await further developments?
The teachers and judges are more alarming than the military purge. Going after suspect officers and soldiers could be legitimate in the aftermath of a coup. Teachers and judges? That reeks of a shift toward sharia and the systematic removal of all known secularists.
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Old 07-19-2016, 12:21 PM
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The teachers and judges are more alarming than the military purge. Going after suspect officers and soldiers could be legitimate in the aftermath of a coup. Teachers and judges? That reeks of a shift toward sharia and the systematic removal of all known secularists.
Getting rid of the intellectuals is a time honored part of seizing absolute power. See also, the anti-intellectual movement in the US Right Wing as another great example of this facet of would-be dictatorships.
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  #34  
Old 07-19-2016, 12:47 PM
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This is somewhat tangential, but a reminder of the types of "moderate" rebels that Erdogan has been convincing us to support against Assad in Syria.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36835678

Quote:
Videos have emerged online that appear to show Syrian rebels taunting and then beheading a boy they say is a captured Palestinian pro-government fighter.
One video shows five men posing with the frightened child, who could be as young as 10, in the back of a truck. One of the men grips him by the hair.
The same man is later filmed apparently cutting the boy's head off.
Quote:
The men in the first video say he is a fighter from Liwa al-Quds (the Jerusalem Brigade), a Palestinian pro-government militia operating in the Aleppo area.
Enab Baladi, a pro-opposition news website, said the boy was captured in Handarat by members of a local rebel group, the Nour al-Din al-Zinki Movement.
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The group is reported to have benefited from financial and military support from the US, UK, France, Turkey, Qatar and other Gulf Arab states in the past.
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Old 07-20-2016, 03:33 AM
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The teachers and judges are more alarming than the military purge. Going after suspect officers and soldiers could be legitimate in the aftermath of a coup. Teachers and judges? That reeks of a shift toward sharia and the systematic removal of all known secularists.
Except that these aren't secularists, or not all of them. Or at least, not entirely. They're said to be followers of Gulen, a Muslim leader with whom Erdogan first cooperated and then fell out with. Many of them are probably inspired by these teachings; others are merely collateral damage.
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Old 07-20-2016, 08:03 AM
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Except that these aren't secularists, or not all of them. Or at least, not entirely. They're said to be followers of Gulen, a Muslim leader with whom Erdogan first cooperated and then fell out with. Many of them are probably inspired by these teachings; others are merely collateral damage.
Yeah, this is more akin to Stalin's purges of suspected Trotsky sympathizers...If I were Gulen, I'd watch my back.
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"We caught them in an alley on skid row in downtown Philly and brought them down with Uzi's and dogs. I beat the shit out of one of the guys for resisting arrest. After that, I went home, fried up some tofu with strawberry preserves and melon sticky rice, laid down on the couch with my snuggie and ate rose petals in sweet daisy wine sauce and watched Mamma Mia on DVD and then cried myself to sleep."

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Old 07-20-2016, 10:51 AM
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Originally Posted by GonzoTheGreat View Post
Except that these aren't secularists, or not all of them. Or at least, not entirely. They're said to be followers of Gulen, a Muslim leader with whom Erdogan first cooperated and then fell out with. Many of them are probably inspired by these teachings; others are merely collateral damage.
Gulen and Erdogan were the original leaders of the AKP. There is no difference ideologically between the two. It was only a power struggle. If it was just military officers and judges, I might buy this as a rounding up of Gulen sympathizers, but even for that the numbers are too high. It is however difficult without being there, and knowing them personally to truly assess if those targeted are AKP-Islamists, which would apply to Gulen and Erdogan flunkies, or if this is just a pretense for finally purging not just the judiciary, army, and police, but also the education sector of Kemalists. At present, BBC reports that 15,200 education ministry staff have been fired, 21,000 teachers have had their licenses revoked, and 1,577 university deans have been forced to quit. These numbers seem far too high to be Gulen specific sympathizers. There just isn't any doctrinal contrast between Gulen and Erdogan, and such high numbers seem impossible for Gulen to have planted. It seems far more likely that these are Kemalists, and Erdogan is simply using Gulen and the coup as an excuse to finally rid all secularists from all sectors of civil service, and to replace them with Muslim fundamentalists. If these were all Gulen's people, they would all already be Muslim fundamentalists, AKP types, just like Erdogan's flunkies. It just doesn't make sense, especially as Gulen has been in America since 1999. To think that these are all his people, after all this time, seems nigh impossible.

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Old 07-20-2016, 12:39 PM
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Well, Khomeini did have quite a large following in Iran too, despite having been in exile for almost as long.

Then again, the army is fairly famous for being filled with Kemalists instead of Muslim fanatics. Odds are that only very few of them would have felt any loyalty to Gulen.
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Old 07-20-2016, 12:41 PM
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14 naval ships are still missing after the coup...so, um...yeah, there's that. If anyone sees them, Erdogan would like to speak to them.
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"We caught them in an alley on skid row in downtown Philly and brought them down with Uzi's and dogs. I beat the shit out of one of the guys for resisting arrest. After that, I went home, fried up some tofu with strawberry preserves and melon sticky rice, laid down on the couch with my snuggie and ate rose petals in sweet daisy wine sauce and watched Mamma Mia on DVD and then cried myself to sleep."

Theoryland: Just Some Crazy In A Pot
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Old 07-20-2016, 01:02 PM
GonzoTheGreat GonzoTheGreat is offline
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Maybe they'll turn up in Al-Raqqa. Wouldn't that be fun?
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