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View Poll Results: Who will win the GOP nomination?
Donald Trump 4 30.77%
Ted Cruz 3 23.08%
Marco Rubio 5 38.46%
Jeb Bush 0 0%
John Kasich 0 0%
Chris Christie 0 0%
Ben Carson 0 0%
Carly Fiorina 1 7.69%
Rick Santorum 0 0%
Voters: 13. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 02-03-2016, 10:07 AM
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Default 2016 US Presidential elections

I figured I'd start a thread to carry us through the cycle, since we've been ad-hoc discussing in the Mike Bloomberg spoiler thread because Kimon didn't feel like Iowa was worth starting a new thread.

Rand Paul just dropped out. Of course, we lost O'Malley and Huckabee on Iowa night. Not sure why Santorum is still in there. IMO we'll probably lose Christie, Kasich, Fiorina, Carson, Gilmore, and Santorum by the time New Hampshire is done. Maybe Bush too, but perhaps he'll hold on through South Carolina. We'll see. None of the others have a real reason to hang on that long. I left Gilmore out of the poll because RCP isn't even tracking him, but we all know it's a 3-man race at this point anyway.
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Old 02-03-2016, 01:27 PM
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None of them have any real chance since your next president will be Hillary Clinton. The reason is that a black guy was already elected and now is the time to remind about women's rights. So who will be nominated doesn't matter.
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Old 02-03-2016, 01:39 PM
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Well, that's a rather narrow take on it!
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Old 02-03-2016, 01:41 PM
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Santorum leaks himself out of the race. What a disgusting frothy mess of a campaign he ended up running.

No word yet on whether or not he and his wife brought the dead campaign home and introduced it to the kids yet.
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Old 02-03-2016, 01:43 PM
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None of them have any real chance since your next president will be Hillary Clinton. The reason is that a black guy was already elected and now is the time to remind about women's rights. So who will be nominated doesn't matter.
To be fair, we've never had a 74 year old Jew from VT as President either...so those are some major barriers to break down too. Unless you're some sort of sick anti-semitic, ageist, Green Mountain denying bastard at least.
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Old 02-03-2016, 02:39 PM
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Santorum leaks himself out of the race.
Yay, more dead wood out of the way. I wonder who he'll endorse. (Word is he will be endorsing someone, unlike Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee.)
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Old 02-03-2016, 02:44 PM
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Yay, more dead wood out of the way. I wonder who he'll endorse. (Word is he will be endorsing someone, unlike Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee.)
If I were a betting man, I'd guess Cruz. Unless he's actually met Cruz since everyone who ever has apparently despises him.

Wasn't he at that TrumpFuhrer rally for Wounded Warrior though? Maybe he's been bought off.
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Old 02-03-2016, 02:53 PM
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It wasn't for Wounded Warrior; Trump doesn't rally for legit veterans' organizations. You're talking about the night he skipped the debate right? Huckabee and Santorum were both there, probably hoping to draw a few votes in Iowa. Didn't work for either.

Cruz seems like a safe bet; Santorum's success in 2012 was largely based on the evangelical vote. I could see him going for someone else, though. Maybe Rubio. Probably not Trump.
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Old 02-03-2016, 03:02 PM
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It wasn't for Wounded Warrior; Trump doesn't rally for legit veterans' organizations. You're talking about the night he skipped the debate right? Huckabee and Santorum were both there, probably hoping to draw a few votes in Iowa. Didn't work for either.

Cruz seems like a safe bet; Santorum's success in 2012 was largely based on the evangelical vote. I could see him going for someone else, though. Maybe Rubio. Probably not Trump.
Calling Wounded Warrior "legit"...too funny. Pure corrupt scam at this point.
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Old 02-03-2016, 03:20 PM
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Calling Wounded Warrior "legit"...too funny. Pure corrupt scam at this point.
More legit than these guys:

https://nonprofitquarterly.org/2015/...terans-issues/
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Old 02-03-2016, 04:41 PM
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Cruz seems like a safe bet; Santorum's success in 2012 was largely based on the evangelical vote. I could see him going for someone else, though. Maybe Rubio. Probably not Trump.
It's still difficult to assess until after New Hampshire, but I'll grudgingly say Rubio.

Iowa is such a fertile ground for the evangelicals that it is too difficult for any but the most natural of bible-thumpers to do well there - hence the recent sequence of Huckabee, Santorum, and then Cruz. None of the current crop are remotely as good of a candidate as McCain, but it's telling that Huckabee trounced McCain in the Iowa primary in '08. It just isn't a reliable indicator of who will be the nominee. That said, if Cruz can somehow pull out a victory in New Hampshire, then he's the candidate. Which is insane. The Republicans usually end up with the best candidate in their field eventually, after winnowing out the real crazies that peak early, but that was often because the establishment used money to suffocate the nuts. Citizens United might end up coming back to haunt them here, as Cruz has enough money to survive in spite of all the traditional powers that be trying to abort his ridiculous candidacy, which they must, as SomeOneElse is wrong on both counts, not only is Hillary very vulnerable in her own primary fight, but both she and Bernie will be very vulnerable in the general. Hillary because she just isn't liked, and Bernie because he stands no chance of winning any states in the south or plains, and probably only Illinois in the Midwest. He might well win just Vermont, Massachusetts, and California, with the rest of the country going red. The only thing potentially destroying Republican chances is allowing for a truly implausible candidate on their own side, and Cruz is, if not the worst candidate, it is only because Carson is even more of a clown. I'm still not convinced that Trump really wants to be president (this still feels like an intended free publicity stunt that got completely out of hand), but either he or Rubio would have a very good shot of winning. A ticket of Rubio-Kasich would be very difficult for the dems to beat.
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Old 02-03-2016, 04:45 PM
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I think it will end up being Trump and Hillary, with Bloomberg sitting out.
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Old 02-03-2016, 05:30 PM
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I'm still thinking this looks like a good year for a contested convention, just because it's easy to see Trump, Cruz, and Rubio sticking it out for the long haul. And it's easy to see a scenario where none of them gets 50% of the delegates.

That was looking less likely before Iowa because Trump's lead kept getting bigger and bigger, and between those who chose him as first choice and second choice, he had more than half. But a loss in Iowa makes Cruz and Rubio more viable, which puts the contested convention back in the realm of possibility. I think it would take 3 or 4 losses in a row to make Trump drop out, and it's hard to see that happening.

It will be interesting to see if the Iowa results affect Trump's prohibitive lead in New Hampshire in the polls. I think Rubio's results in Iowa will attract the Establishment voters who have been leaning toward Bush, Kasich, and Christie. I don't know where the Paul voters will go. Knowing Paul voters, they'll probably just stay home. Huckabee's will probably go to Cruz; Santorum's also, unless he endorses someone else.
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Old 02-03-2016, 05:50 PM
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I think Trump will implode shortly.
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Old 02-03-2016, 05:52 PM
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We can hope. But we have good reason to be skeptical at this point. People have been predicting his imminent implosion for months now. He finally has a loss under his belt, and that matters, but I'm going to wait to see how much it matters.
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Old 02-03-2016, 05:59 PM
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We can hope. But we have good reason to be skeptical at this point. People have been predicting his imminent implosion for months now. He finally has a loss under his belt, and that matters, but I'm going to wait to see how much it matters.
If the establishment coalesces around Rubio in NH, Trumps finished as it'll be a Rubio/Cruz battle with Cruz taking the southern and super evangelical states but Rubio getting the same support that Romney got in 2012.

If.

I hope it doesn't go that way but that's my guess.


As for Sanders, I think Kimon is way too pessimistic about his chances.
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Old 02-03-2016, 05:59 PM
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I put Rubio, but you should have added the options "I don't live in the country so I don't care" and "I do live in the country and still don't care" for the sake of humor
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Old 02-03-2016, 06:06 PM
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If the establishment coalesces around Rubio in NH, Trumps finished as it'll be a Rubio/Cruz battle with Cruz taking the southern and super evangelical states but Rubio getting the same support that Romney got in 2012.

If.

I hope it doesn't go that way but that's my guess.
Unlike most Democrats, I'm hoping Rubio wins because even though he's the most difficult candidate for us to beat, I'd be more comfortable with him as president than any of the others (despite his many flaws) and the idea of Trump or Cruz even as the nominee is frightening to me.

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As for Sanders, I think Kimon is way too pessimistic about his chances.
Agreed. It will be tough for him because of the socialism thing and because he's not the most eloquent candidate we could hope for. But if he were the nominee, I don't see him losing the Midwest except Indiana and maybe Ohio. He's got good surrogates in Ohio.

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I put Rubio, but you should have added the options "I don't live in the country so I don't care" and "I do live in the country and still don't care" for the sake of humor
I don't like easy options. Take a stand, whether or not you care!
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Old 02-03-2016, 06:27 PM
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Agreed. It will be tough for him because of the socialism thing and because he's not the most eloquent candidate we could hope for. But if he were the nominee, I don't see him losing the Midwest except Indiana and maybe Ohio. He's got good surrogates in Ohio.
Indiana is almost always out of reach. Even Bill Clinton lost Indiana. Indiana is basically just a colder version of Mississippi. Sanders has no shot there. Ohio is the second toughest Midwestern state (I wouldn't even consider Iowa as part of the Midwest - growing up in Michigan makes me associate the midwest perhaps unfairly with the Lakes and the original Big Ten - Iowa only meets one of those criteria). Sanders would get trounced there too. Illinois and Minnesota are his best chances in the Midwest. Maybe Michigan and Wisconsin. Those are all states that should be, and have been, reliably blue for most dems. Except Mondale. Who just got Minnesota, and basically nothing else. He was going up against Reagan, but bs revisionist thinking aside, Reagan is just a dumber version of Trump. Dukakis had a similar thrashing to Mondale, except he was going up against a much better rival than Mondale, as the Elder Bush was a northerner (unlike his incompetent son), not evangelical, and a centrist - so basically a democrat if running today. I don't think Sanders would produce as humiliating a defeat as Mondale's, but any decent Republican should be capable of producing something similar to the Elder Bush's defeat of Dukakis. Now, none of the Republicans are remotely as good a candidate as the Elder Bush, but Americans are stupid, and as a result have been easily manipulated into thinking that socialist=communist.
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Old 02-03-2016, 06:33 PM
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I don't like easy options. Take a stand, whether or not you care!
But taking a stand is the easy option.
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